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ZS1! trade ideas

MORE PRESSURE TO COME?Soybeans News • U.S. National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data on Friday showed U.S. soybean crush fell to an 11-month low in August, below almost all trade estimates. Weak crushing demand comes as U.S. exports struggle to compete with record Brazilian shipments. • Last week’s USDA report showed a national average soybean yield of 50.1 bushels per acre, below the 50.9 in last month’s report but within the range of estimates. The month over month decline in yield dropped overall production to 4.146 billion bushels. Commitment of Traders Friday’s weekly commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of 8,995 futures/options contracts through September 12th. This was the second straight week of a shrinking net long position, which now stands at 73,815 contracts. Will long liquidation continue to be a trend as harvest picks up and supply grows? TBD. Volatility CME Group’s soybean CVOL index declined to its lowest levels since the spring, indicating a lack of uncertainty in the markets. The decline in volatility may make options more appealing for traders and/or hedgers to either manage risk or take a position in the markets. Technicals (November) Soybean futures broke below trendline support following the September USDA report. That technical failure has led to additional weakness since, with prices breaking below the 200-day moving average for the first time in a month. Previous support will now act as resistance, we see that as 1330-1332 1/2. The next downside objective for the Bears would be 1300-1304. Seasonality typically favors the Bear camp this time of year, when looking at the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Bias: Bearish/Neutral Resistance: 1350-1355***, 1373-1381*** Pivot: 1330-1332 ½ Support: 1300-1304**** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSX2023Short
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
The Grains; $8 Beans & $2 Corn is all but a foregone conclusionIf inflation exists at all but in the playbook of vested interests, to maintain sky-high prices in the grains will require much more than just the reliance on the traditionally levity-laden relationship of the mainstream media with the facts. The fact remains that the world has been in a food production overdrive for many moons by now. Even a makeshift operatic war, like the Ukraine conflict, could not alter this fact. Au contraire! The region's, collectively denoted as: "The Ukraine" (and only referred to as a "country" by the historically lesser versed), 6 Million square kilometer, top-flight, black soil now under US corporate ownership, that additional 13% of global grain production will - as it already does! - enjoy far more aggressive global "marketing" (i.e., push), backed by US know-how and vested interests. After all, that is what this whole charade was all about, from the beginning. (US gets the growing areas, the Russian Federation keeps the already occupied, eastern industrial belt - with peace proposals long prepared and on the table, by both parties. The only problem remaining now is how to declare "a winner"? - And that, being by far the most complicated part of that whole undertaking, could take a few more years - including, what to do with that pesky, remaining ~20 million, out of 50 million, inhabitants?) Corn's outlook goes hand-in-hand with that of Soy Beans; Wheat, as it is standard, has been well ahead in doing the collapso;
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Nemo_Confidat
2
Where will soybeans find support?The November soybean market has been on a nice uptrend since the lows from August 8th, and we are seeing some selling coming after we topped out near 1409-5. Looking on the fundamental side, there is concerns for the continued hot and dry weather headed into next week which would support higher process, and the Mississippi water levels continue to decline, having a strong impact on basis. Seasonally speaking, this is the time of the year where the market attempts to create a new low in the near term, but we are currently trading significantly higher than what we typically see for this time of year. On the technical side, even though we have seen some selling throughout this week, we are still holding out above some strong levels, where old resistance is acting as support. If the beans continue to sell off on the November contract, there is support near 1367-7 where bulls would need to defend to continue the prices moving higher in the uptrend. There is also strong trendline support from the May lows, and a break and a close below that level would flip the bias from an uptrend to more neutral or bearish. The average true range (ATR) on this contract is near 25 cents, and so if the market continues lower, we will could see these levels tested in the next few trading days. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSX2023
by Ryan_Gorman
Soy bean will decreaseThere are a few factors that have contributed to the recent decrease in soybean prices. A record crop is expected in the United States. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is forecasting a soybean production of 122.7 million tonnes in 2023, which would be a record high. This is due to favorable weather conditions and an increased area under cultivation. Good crop conditions in South America. Soybean production is also expected to be strong in South America, with Brazil and Argentina forecast to produce record crops. This is due to El Niño, which is bringing more rainfall to the region. Weakening demand. Soybean demand is also weakening, as China has been importing less soybeans due to its own record crop. Entry: 1398'4 - 1399'6 SL: 1406.50 TP1: 1393'6 TP2: 1387'2 TP3: 1376.75
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by neurotrader95
3
Are Soybeans Headed for New Highs?Soybeans gapped higher Sunday night following Friday afternoon's release of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour findings. Wait...what the heck is the Pro Farmer Crop Tour? It's pretty much what it sounds like, but probably on a bigger scale than what you're thinking. Over the course of 4 days crop scouts (including myself) pulled a Pro Farmer record 1,800 samples of corn and 1,800 samples of soybeans across 7 states which make up for nearly 70% of corn and soybean acres. Each year, the Tour is divided into two sides, the East and the West. Within each of those sides are about 20 different routes that are split amongst groups of 2-4 scouts per car. The Scouts come from a wide variety of backgrounds including farmers, brokers, reporters, and hedge funds. Each team of scouts is tasked with collecting samples from random corn and soybean fields every 12-15 miles along their given route. So what did the find? With all the data from last week in, Pro Farmer estimates the national average soybean yield at 49.7 bushels per acre with the margin of error being +/- 2%, which puts the yield range from 48.7-50.7bpa (below the current USDA estimate). With the soybean crop still developing, weather will continue to be a big focus. Weather outlooks throughout the Midwest into the middle of September suggest above normal temperatures coupled with below normal precipitation levels which could hinder yield potential. With uncertainty still looming, new crop weekly options could be a great tool for producers, end-users, and traders to consider using to help manage risk or to express an opinion in the market. How does the chart look? Through the month of August the chart has been firming up, posting a string of higher highs and higher lows over the last two weeks. If the Bulls can keep this momentum going we could see a retest of the July highs which come in from 1428-1435. If the Bulls fail to defend the Sunday night gap higher and we close back below that pocket (1390 1/2-1392), we could see that trigger some long liquidation. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSX2023Long
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
1
Soybeans test SIGNIFICANT support. Will it hold?November soybean prices (ZSX2023) have been hit hard after failing to get out above significant resistance in the last week of July. We’ve previously outlined that resistance pocket in our daily reports as 1427 ¾-1435, which has been a brick wall for the market dating back to the spring of 2022. Since the recent technical failure, prices have retreated nearly $1.50. So, was the selloff all technical? No, there were fundamental forces at play. The November soybean contract is what grain traders refer to as “the new crop contract”, meaning it is the crop that is in the ground right now and will be harvested in the fall. During this time of year crop development is key, which means weather is key. Cooler temperatures and precipitation across the Midwest over the last few weeks have alleviated concerns around drought conditions which acted as a headwind for prices, triggering long liquidation which can be seen in the most recent Commitment of Traders report. That report showed Funds reduced their net long position by about 26k contracts, shrinking it to about +95k futures/options contracts. That selling pressure has taken prices back to some significant support levels, which we’ve outlined as a pocket from 1282-1290. That pocket represents the 100-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement, derived from the lows in May to the highs in July. On top of that, it happens to also be the breakout point from the June 30th acreage report. From the risk reward side of things, we feel that this support pocket is a great opportunity for the Bulls and Bears alike. For the Bears who’ve been short, this may be an opportunity to reduce exposure. For the Bulls, this is a spot to take a look at the long side. A break and close below that support pocket would be the “tap-out point” as it could open the door for additional long liquidation with the next support pocket not coming in until 1256-6. It’s important to note that there is a USDA report this Friday which could have big implications on price action, so managing risk will be important (as usual). CME Group offers new crop weekly options that expire every Friday. With new crop weekly options expiring on the day of this report, market participants may look to utilize these options as a cost-effective way to help manage price risk or express an opinion in the market. You can check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSX2023
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
1
Will the sell-off in grains hold?Grains have been on a pullback since the last WASDE and we have another one coming up in a couple of weeks when stocks and demand will all be forefront in how much more prices could hold and go higher. The weekly CoT report from the CFTC showed net new buying and short covering from the soybean spec traders during the past week. That throws the the net longs for the November expiration by about 25k contracts to 120,739. Commercial hedgers added 42k new shorts amounting to about 10-12% of the overall open interest through the week taking their net short positions to 187,370 contracts. Support now sits in a 50-odd point price band between 1295~1346 and falling to the lower edge of this support cannot be ruled out given the situation with supply and true demand. Last week, export numbers were encouraging causing some stir in prices as we squeezed higher. The downside here has more potential owing to the imbalance in longs-vs-shorts. Keep and eye on the support band and trade cautiously. Short-term, resistance is at 1380.25 and the initial profit target for the short trade is 1340.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by TechTrader79
Soybean Prices Continue to ClimbSoybean futures prices are continuing to grind higher in the early morning trade, taking prices back towards the upper end of the recent range with more significant resistance coming in near the psychologically significant $14.00 level. We continue to believe the Bulls have the technical advantage so long as the Bulls continue to defend 1315-1320. A break and close below that pocket would neutralize our bias. Today's USDA report is scheduled to be released at 11am CT. The average analyst estimate for yield comes in at 51.4 bushels per acre. The average production estimate is 4.253 billion bushels.
CBOT:ZSX2023
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybeans poised for a drop?Soybeans have certainly caught our attention as a classic head and shoulders pattern has emerged, suggesting a possible trend reversal. This implies a potential drop equivalent to the height from the head to the neckline, taking us towards the 900 level. Could this be signalling more downside in the soybean market? The current price action is intriguing as an attempt to break the neckline was rejected and prices now hover just below the neckline. Is this the prime moment to consider a short position on soybeans? We think it's worth exploring, and here's why... As we’ve last pointed out in the “It’s Corn!” idea in March, prices of the 3 major agriculture crops, Soybean, Wheat and Corn generally move together. Back then, we were highlighting the excessive premium in Corn futures as well as the break of a technical chart pattern. Now, we're witnessing a similar tale with Soybean stepping into the spotlight. From 2019 until now, these three crops have jockeyed for position in terms of percentage gain. Currently, Soybean is in the lead, when compared to Wheat and Corn, in terms of % gain from pre-COVID times and the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Another way to look at it is to compare the ratio between Soybean & Corn as well as Wheat. The Soybean/Corn ratio is now at the higher end of its 7-year range, and while the Soybean/Wheat ratio not as extreme, is still closer to its range top. Another interesting dynamic we can look into is the Natural Gas – Fertilizers – Soybean dynamic. As natural gas is a key input in fertilisers production, the spectacular fall in natural gas prices has preceded falling fertiliser prices. This in turn, impacts soybean prices as well. Hence, we see a potential downside for Soybean as it trades at a premium as compared to Corn & Wheat. We can consider a short position on the Soybean Futures at the current level of 1340 with a stop at 1450 and take profits at 1250 followed by a subsequent take profit level at 900. This will allow profits on the anticipated downward move while also considering the head and shoulders pattern's target. CME’s Soybean Futures is quoted in U.S. cents per bushel. Each 0.0025 increment equal to 12.5$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by inspirante
November Soybeans DivergenceThere is divergence between price and oscillators such as Bollinger Band %B, Accumulation/Distribution AD%, RSI, DMI, and MACD. Price has also retested a point of control level just shy of 1400’ after attempting a significant drop down to 1100’. The red circle highlights that the lower BB has curled up after an up move in price suggesting the up move in price is over. The main support is the 20-day SMA which appears to have been the reason for the most recent move up. There is room for significant downside. Natural gas prices have collapsed and there has been ample rain in the US as of late. Looking for day trade short entries and setting a stop at B/E asap is probably a good approach. Will be watching this tonight (Sunday night 6/9/23). Additional notes: Wheat has an epic H&S with retest of neckline Corn is putting in new 2-year lows wheat has a 50% drop from its peak corn has a 40% drop from its peak soybeans have a 25% drop from their peak (it may have some catching up to do)
CBOT:ZSX2023Short
by Skipper86
CBOT Soybean Complex: An IntroductionCBOT: Soybean ( CBOT:ZS1! ), Soybean Meal ( CBOT:ZM1! ), Soybean Oil ( CBOT:ZL1! ) Today, I am starting a new series on CBOT soybeans, one of the most liquid commodities contracts in the world. In March 2023, Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Soybean Oil together traded 14.0 million lots, contributing to 42.6% of CME Group agricultural futures and options volume, and 2.0% of overall Exchange monthly volume. Soybean Market Fundamentals Soybeans are the world’s largest source of animal protein feed and the second largest source of vegetable oil. Soybeans are the most-traded agricultural commodities, comprising more than 10% of the total value of global agriculture trade. According to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), global soybean production for 2022/2023 crop year is 369.6 million metric tons. Let’s visualize this: If we were to distribute the entire crops to the world population evenly, each person would get approximately 46 kilograms of soybeans. The U.S., Brazil and Argentina are the largest soybean producers, accounting for 80% of the global production. The U.S. is the single largest soybean producer and exporter, harvesting 4.3 billion bushels a year and exporting 47% of it, according to the WASDE. The heart of U.S. soybean production is the Midwest. In the main part of the soybean belt, planting takes place from late April through June, with harvest beginning in late September and ending in late November. About two thirds of the total soybean crop is processed, or crushed, into soybean oil and soybean meal. The term “crush” refers to the physical process of converting soybeans into its oil and meal byproducts. The crush spread refers to the difference between the value of soybean meal and oil and the price of soybeans. It represents the gross processing margin from crushing soybeans. When a bushel of soybeans weighing 60 pounds is crushed, the typical results are: • 11 pounds of soybean oil (18%) • 44 pounds of soybean meal (73%) • 4 pounds of hulls (6%) • 1 pound of waste (2%) Soybean meal is used by feed manufacturers as a prime ingredient in high-protein animal feed for poultry and livestock. It is further processed into human foods, such as soy grits and flour, and is a key component in meat or dairy substitutes, like soymilk and tofu. After initial processing, soybean oil is further refined and used in cooking oils, margarines, mayonnaise and salad dressings and industrial chemicals. Soybean oil may also be left unprocessed and used in the production of biodiesel fuels. Exports are big business for U.S. soybean farmers. According to the data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, soybean exports totaled $6.9 billion in the first two months of 2023, contributing to 1.4% of all U.S. exports of goods and services. Soybean exports have increased dramatically since 2000 as the demand for meat and poultry grew in Europe and Asia, particularly in China. CBOT Soybeans Futures and Options Soybean futures began trading at the Chicago Board of Trade in 1932, followed by futures on its byproducts: Soybean Oil in 1946 and Soybean Meal in 1947. Soybean (ZS) futures are physically delivered contracts based on No. 2 yellow soybeans. Each contract has a notional value of 5,000 bushels, equivalent to 136 metric tons. Soybean contracts are listed for the months of Nov., Jan., Mar., May, Jul., Aug., and Sep., projecting out about 3.5 years in the future. You may have heard of the terms “New Crop” and “Old Crop”. The former refers to crops that have not been harvested. For soybeans, it’s Nov. contract (ZSX3), which coincides with the harvest season. For contract months May, Jul., Aug., and Sep. 2023, soybeans available for sales are from the previous crop year, hence the name “Old Crop”. Soybean options (OZS) have a contract unit of 1 ZS futures contract. It is deliverable by the corresponding futures contract, with the last trading day set at one month prior to futures expiration month. Soybean Meal (ZM) futures are also physically delivered contracts. Each contract has a notional value of 100 short tons, equivalent to 91 metric tons. Soybean Meal contracts are listed for the months of Jan., Mar., May., Jul., Aug., Sep., Oct., and Dec. A total of 25 contracts are listed simultaneously. Because of the use of soybean meal for animal feed, its demand is closely aligned with the livestock and poultry industry. For the export market, instead of soybean meal, buyers usually buy soybeans and process them in their home country. Soybean Meal options (OZM) have a contract unit of 1 ZM futures contract and are deliverable by the corresponding futures contract. Soybean Oil (ZL) futures are physically delivered contracts. Each contract has a notional value of 60,000 pounds, equivalent to 27.2 metric tons. Soybean Oil contracts are listed for the months of Jan., Mar., May., Jul., Aug., Sep., Oct., and Dec. A total of 27 contracts are listed simultaneously. While soybean oil is a leading ingredient for edible oil, oilseeds also include rapeseed, sunflower, sesame, groundnut, mustard, coconut, cotton seeds and palm oil. Whenever one of them becomes too expensive, food companies would substitute it with a cheaper ingredient. Hence, soybean oil price is highly correlated with the other oilseed products. Use Cases for CBOT Soybeans Contracts At every stage of the soybean production chain, from planting, growing and harvest, to exporting and processing, market participants face the risk of adverse price movements. Prices of soybean and its byproducts continuously fluctuate, largely determined by crop production cycles, weather, livestock production cycles, and ongoing shifts in global market demand. In this section, I will illustrate how producer, storer, processor and soybean user could use CBOT soybeans futures and options to hedge market risks. Soybean Farmer (Producer) When a US soybean farmer plants the crops in April, he is said to have a Long Cash position. The farmer is exposed to the risk of falling soybean price during the November harvest season. To hedge the price risk, our farmer could enter a Short Futures position now, and buy back and offset the futures when he is ready to sell the crops. Since the cash market and futures market are highly correlated, loss or gain in the cash market will be largely offset by the gain or loss in the futures market. The farmer is left with basis risk, which is adverse changes of the cash-futures spread. It is usually much smaller than the outright price risk. In the context of futures trading, notably commodities, basis refers to the difference between the spot (cash) price of a commodity and the price of a futures contract for that same commodity. Grain Elevator (Storer) After the crop is harvested, farmer or merchandiser would usually store the soybeans in a grain elevator and wait for the right time and price to sell. Soybeans could be stored for a year but would incur monthly storage costs. The decision to store depends on whether expected future price gains outweigh the storage costs. The merchandizer is exposed to the risk of falling soybean price, which would cause his soybean inventory (old crop) to decline in value. To hedge the price risks, he could establish a Short Futures position for the expected period of storage and buy it back when he is ready to sell. Oilseed Processor For soybean processing mill, crush spread represents the gross processing margin from crushing soybeans. It is exposed to the risk of rising soybean price where meal and oil prices fail to catch up. Soybeans trade in bushels, soybean meal trades in short tons and soybean oil trades in pounds. The prices of the three commodities need to be converted to a common unit for an accurate calculation. A bushel of soybeans produces about 44 pounds of soybean meal. Since Soybean Meal futures are priced per ton, multiplying the meal price by 0.022 represents the meal price per 44 pounds. That same bushel of soybeans also produces 11 pounds of soybean oil. Since Soybean Oil futures are priced per pound, multiplying the soybean oil price by 0.11 represents the oil price per 11 pounds. (www.cmegroup.com) Processor could lock in the crush margin by a crush spread trade. To ease the difficulty of constructing and executing the spread, CME Group facilitates the board crush that consists of a total of 30 contracts; 10 Soybean, 11 Soybean Meal, and 9 Soybean Oil. Livestock Farmer (User) Large-scale farms usually buy corn, soybean meal and other ingredients to produce their own feed. Farmers are exposed to the risk of rising ingredient costs. They could hedge the price risk by establishing long positions in CBOT corn and soybean meal futures. For hog farmers, gross production profit is represented by the Hog Crush Margin. It is defined by the value of lean hog (LH) less the cost of weaned pig (WP), corn (C) and soybean meal (SBM). In the futures market, traders could replicate the economic hog crush margin with a Hog Feeding Spread involving CME lean hog (HE), CBOT Corn (ZC) and CBOT Soybean Meal (ZM). There is no futures contract for weaned pig (piglet). If you expect hog margin to grow, Long the feeding spread: Buy lean hog, sell corn and soybean meal. For a shrinking margin, Short the spread: Sell hog, buy corn and meal. This concludes Part 1 of our introduction to CBOT Soybean complex. In Part 2, I plan to discuss major reports that move the soybean markets: • World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) • USDA Prospective Plantings Report • USDA Grain Stocks Report • CFTC Commitment of Traders Report Happy Trading. (To be continued) Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZS1!Education
by JimHuangChicago
5
Heavy Exports Weighing Down SoybeansSoybean is among the world’s most traded crop. It is used in various industries. Soybean drives global food prices. It can tilt trade balances of an entire nation. This paper describes the importance of Soybean. It lists key producers, consumer and maps the harvesting cycle across the calendar by top producing countries. Given rising Brazilian exports, higher US planting, and asset manager’s positioning, this paper articulates a case study for a short position in CME Soybeans Futures delivering a 1.3x reward to risk with entry at USc 1,452.5/bushel and target of USc 1,350/bushel hedged by a stop at USc 1,530/bushel. SOYBEAN IS THE WORLD’S MOST TRADED GRAIN Soybean is high in protein. Hence, it is a key component of livestock feed for meat & dairy production. Rising consumption of the latter two continues to push Soybeans demand. Two-thirds of Soybean is used for crushing into oil and meal. Soybean oil is among the most widely used vegetable oils. It is also used as biodiesel. The two American continents form 80% of global production. Brazil (42%) and the US (31%) are the two largest producers of Soybeans. Argentina is a distant third (7%). China drives demand. It is the largest importer of Soybeans. It comprises 60% of global imports. Soybeans is used to feed China’s massive livestock. Soybean prices are cyclical and prone to price shocks. HARVESTING CYCLE, WEATHER & TRADE POLICY HUGELY INFLUENCES PRICES Prices vary through the year. It is lowest at harvest. Increases during the year with rising inventory holding costs. Harvest seasons are spread differently across North & South America. US harvest is from September to November. While the Brazil & Argentina harvest from March until June. Not surprisingly, Brazilian and US harvest has an enormous impact on Soybean prices. Actual production deviating from expectations in these two majors can send prices surging or tumbling. Soybean prices since 2015 is visualised below. Prices have structurally moved up. Prices have surged driven by robust demand since 2020. Soybean prices on average have ranged 14% from its lowest to the highest over the last eight years with large price gyrations in 2016 and 2020. Price behaviour during and post-harvest since 2015 is visually described in the heatmap below. All things being equal, Soybean prices trend lower during harvesting followed by price recovery post-harvest. However, each year presents idiosyncratic conditions related to weather, trade policy, yield and output, causing price fluctuation. Beyond the harvest cycle, climate has a significant impact. North and South America is heavily affected by El Niño-Southern Oscillation which is a natural climate pattern causing hotter/dryer climate every three to seven years. El- Niño also elevates the chances of droughts and floods. Demand for Soybean Oil is also impacted by supply and demand of other vegetable oils like Palm Oil due to substitution effect. Global trade policy has a considerable influence too. Trade restrictions can disrupt global supply-demand balance, resulting in increased volatility. HIGHER PLANTING IN US, RISING BRAZILIAN EXPORTS, AND FALLING YIELDS IN ARGENTINA USA : In its recent Market Outlook, the USDA reported that US farmers were planning to plant marginally higher than last year but below market expectations. As per National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), soybean crushing spiked to a 15-month high and the second highest level for any month on record in March. The crushing pace jumped as processors bounce back from maintenance related downtime. Brazil : Soybean exports from Brazil surged 42.5% YoY during the first half of April. Bean prices have trended lower on larger than expected supply. Argentina : USDA reduced its forecast of Argentina’s soybean crop to twenty-seven million metric tons down from thirty-three million metric tons last month. Argentina’s soybean yields sunk to historical lows last week as per Buenos Aires Grains Exchange’s (BAGE) weekly report. BAGE warned that its projection, currently at twenty-five million metric tons, could be reduced if yield remains suppressed. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT Two-thirds of soybean crop is crushed into oil and meal. The crush spread, also sometimes referred to as simply the crush, refers to the difference between the value of soybean meal and oil and the price of soybeans. The “crush” is gross processing margin from crushing soybeans. As such, these three products are deeply intertwined. Asset managers have reduced net longs in all three contracts since the start of 2023. Intriguingly, asset managers have reduced net longs much more sharply for Oil and Meal relative to Soybeans. TRADE SET UP Four key drivers at play. First, rising supply from Brazil. Second, higher planting by US farmers. Third, bearish asset manager positioning. Finally, first three offset by marginal impact of lower yields in Argentina. In forming a holistic view, this paper posits a short position in CME Soybeans July contract. Each lot provides exposure to 5,000 bushels (~136 tons). Prices are quoted in U.S. cents per bushel. Minimum price fluctuation (tick) is one-fourth of one-cent. Therefore, every tick represents a change of USD 12.50 per lot. ● Entry: USc 1,452.5 ● Target: USc 1,350 ● Stop: USc 1,530 ● Profit at target: USD 5,125 ● Loss at stop: USD 3,875 ● Reward-to-risk: 1.3x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. 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CBOT:ZSN2023Short
by mintdotfinance