Soybeans: More Downside to Come?Were following soybean futures right now, particularly the November 23 and January 24 contracts to see if more selling will come potentially qwelling some of the infaltion concerns. We'll find out soon.
ZS1! trade ideas
What Drives Soybean Prices: El Niño, Geopolitics, or SeasonalityEl Niño means little boy in Spanish. The fishermen in Latin America observed periods of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean in the 1600s around Christmas. El Niño can cause 50% variation in local weather in regions growing essential crops like beans, corn, and coffee.
Soybean is a giant in global trade. It ranks among the top comprising more than 10% of the total value traded annually. Soybean is used for edible oils, biofuels, and livestock feed.
This paper introduces the impact of El Niño on bean prices, geopolitical risk in beans given its idiosyncratic market structure, and seasonality. Medium to longer term impact on bean prices will be dictated by severity of weather, demand, and energy prices.
However, in the near term, record Brazilian output and ongoing harvests in China, India, Russia, Ukraine, and Canada will weigh down on bean prices.
To gain from weakening prices, this paper posits a hypothetical short position in CME Soybean Futures expiring in November 2023 (ZSX2023) with an entry at USc 1296/bushel combined with a target at USc 1188/bushel and hedged by a stop at USc 1368/bushel, delivering an expected reward-to-risk ratio of 1.5x.
EL NIÑO IS A RECURRING CLIMATE PHENEMENON
El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate phenomenon which has significant global impact on precipitation and temperature.
ENSO is the result of the natural cyclical interaction between equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) and the atmosphere. These interactions lead to climate fluctuations across more than 60% of the world. ENSO has a major effect on rainfall and temperature variation.
In some regions, such as those closest to the tropical pacific, ENSO can result in 50% of the total variation in local weather. These regions are often the most essential for important crops like bean, corn, and coffee.
These interactions oscillate between warming and cooling periods leading to the ENSO cycle plotted below. The pattern recurs every two to seven years.
Notably, the frequency of the ENSO cycle and the intensity of its effects have increased over the last fifty years due to global warming. As a result, ENSO has an outsized influence on global economy given its potency of delivering shocks to agriculture.
El Niño are periods of warm ocean temperatures (highlighted in red) in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific regions. La Niña are periods with cooler ocean temperatures (marked in green above) in Central and Eastern Pacific zones.
Periods with no major deviation from average Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are considered normal weather conditions.
Each El Niño or La Niña phase persists for two years on average. However, a longer-than-expected phase of El Niño (like the one in 2015) can lead to a much more significant impact on agricultural markets owing to larger drawdown on inventories.
THE BEAN IS EXPOSED TO GEOPOLITICS
The Americas comprise >80% of total global production. Top producers are Brazil, the US, Paraguay, and Argentina. These nations are also the top bean exporters.
China is world's largest importer. It mops up 60% of global import demand. Beans in China is primarily used to feed its massive livestock population.
Unlike staple grains, the bean industry is highly centralized given the structure of the sea-borne market. Consequently, they are prone to shocks from disruptions such as trade restrictions and geo-politics.
In 2017, soybean was caught in the crossfire in US-China tariff war. Back then, China placed a 25% tariff on beans imported from the US. This drove demand for Brazilian soybeans as the US ones were rendered expensive for Chinese importers.
The trade friction adversely impacted the US, to an extent that is feltto this day. Since then, US exports have been far lower while Brazilian exports have gradually expanded. It has also led to structural shifts in bean usage.
SEASONALITY IS PREDICTABLE IN BEAN PRICE BEHAVIOUR
As previously published , seasonality in beans is driven by the harvest cycle. North American crop is harvested between September and November while South America harvests from March to June.
Bean prices decline after harvesting cycles. Distinct price patterns can be discerned by analysing seasonality. Prices rise through the first half of the year from January to June as inventories deplete. Then, they rapidly decline following harvesting in Argentina and Brazil.
EL NIÑO FAVORABLY IMPACTS BEANS
El Niño’s effect on beans is consistent. Usually, extreme weather typically creates havoc to crop and crop yield. But not so in the case of soybeans.
Interestingly, research shows that El Niño favourably impacts American soybeans farmers leading to a 3.5% increase in yield on average. Increased rainfall and lower temperature in the Americas caused by El Niño explains this favourable weather impact on the crop.
As Weston Anderson, et al. highlight , the impact is most significant during peak El Niño which is expected next year. While American farmers benefit from benign weather, Asian growers suffer adverse effects of El Niño, resulting in declining yield and production in Asia.
OUTLOOK FOR BEANS
Taking into consideration the drivers outline as above, larger harvest is expected in Brazil in 2024. In 2023, Argentinian harvest was significantly smaller due to unfavourable weather, and this is expected to recover back to its usual levels.
The USDA is forecasting a larger harvest in China in 2024. However, peak El Niño could negatively impact Chinese crop leading to spike in import demand.
Seasonal trends point to a winter rally in bean prices ahead.
However, historical analysis shows that El Niño years result in a higher-than-average yield in soybean. Combining the effect of (a) record Brazilian output, plus (b) El Niño fuelled greater yields leading to abundant harvest in 2024, the higher-than-average yield in soybean could cause a potential glut.
Bean oversupply will cut short a winter price rally. Worse still, a glut could make the post-harvest price crash next year much more severe.
SIGNALS FOR BEAN PRICES FROM DERIVATIVES MARKETS
The commitment of trader’s report points to declining net long positions by managed money inching towards lows observed during May earlier this year.
Even the options market hints at bearish slant with put-call ratio at 1.13x within rising open interest build up in puts in the near term.
Since mid-September, data from CFTC shows that bean options traders are positioning themselves against fall in prices as they have added 18,079 lots in puts versus 13,090 lots in calls.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SET UP
With more harvests coming onstream, soybean prices will come under increasing downward pressure in the near term.
To gain from crumbling bean prices, a hypothetical short position in CME Soybean Futures expiring in November ( ZSX2023 ) with an entry at USc 1296/bushel and a target at USc 1188/bushel, hedged by a stop at USc 1368/bushel is expected to deliver a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.5x.
Each soybean futures contract provides exposure to 5,000 bushels (~136 metric tons) and is quoted in US cents per bushel. Each tick represents one-fourth of a cent (USc 0.25) per bushel resulting in USD12.50 in P&L.
• Entry: 1296
• Target: 1188
• Stop: 1368
• Profit-at-Target (hypothetical): USD 5,400 (1296 – 1188 = 108; 432 ticks x 12.50 = 5,400)
• Loss-at-Stop (hypothetical): USD 3,600 (1296 – 1368 = -72; -288 ticks x 12.50 = -3,600)
• Reward-to-Risk (hypothetical): 1.5x
REFERENCES
Nature
ScienceDirect
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT SOYBEAN FUTURES is performing perfectly as anticipatedThe CBOT SOYBEAN FUTURES continues performing perfectly as anticipated , After the completion of wave B, the market reversed down to complete the wave C and reached so far 1292.5 down from 1409.5.
MORE PRESSURE TO COME?Soybeans
News
• U.S. National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data on Friday showed U.S. soybean crush fell to an 11-month low in August, below almost all trade estimates. Weak crushing demand comes as U.S. exports struggle to compete with record Brazilian shipments.
• Last week’s USDA report showed a national average soybean yield of 50.1 bushels per acre, below the 50.9 in last month’s report but within the range of estimates. The month over month decline in yield dropped overall production to 4.146 billion bushels.
Commitment of Traders
Friday’s weekly commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of 8,995 futures/options contracts through September 12th. This was the second straight week of a shrinking net long position, which now stands at 73,815 contracts. Will long liquidation continue to be a trend as harvest picks up and supply grows? TBD.
Volatility
CME Group’s soybean CVOL index declined to its lowest levels since the spring, indicating a lack of uncertainty in the markets. The decline in volatility may make options more appealing for traders and/or hedgers to either manage risk or take a position in the markets.
Technicals (November)
Soybean futures broke below trendline support following the September USDA report. That technical failure has led to additional weakness since, with prices breaking below the 200-day moving average for the first time in a month. Previous support will now act as resistance, we see that as 1330-1332 1/2. The next downside objective for the Bears would be 1300-1304. Seasonality typically favors the Bear camp this time of year, when looking at the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Resistance: 1350-1355***, 1373-1381***
Pivot: 1330-1332 ½
Support: 1300-1304****
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The Grains; $8 Beans & $2 Corn is all but a foregone conclusionIf inflation exists at all but in the playbook of vested interests, to maintain sky-high prices in the grains will require much more than just the reliance on the traditionally levity-laden relationship of the mainstream media with the facts.
The fact remains that the world has been in a food production overdrive for many moons by now.
Even a makeshift operatic war, like the Ukraine conflict, could not alter this fact. Au contraire!
The region's, collectively denoted as: "The Ukraine" (and only referred to as a "country" by the historically lesser versed), 6 Million square kilometer, top-flight, black soil now under US corporate ownership, that additional 13% of global grain production will - as it already does! - enjoy far more aggressive global "marketing" (i.e., push), backed by US know-how and vested interests. After all, that is what this whole charade was all about, from the beginning. (US gets the growing areas, the Russian Federation keeps the already occupied, eastern industrial belt - with peace proposals long prepared and on the table, by both parties. The only problem remaining now is how to declare "a winner"? - And that, being by far the most complicated part of that whole undertaking, could take a few more years - including, what to do with that pesky, remaining ~20 million, out of 50 million, inhabitants?)
Corn's outlook goes hand-in-hand with that of Soy Beans;
Wheat, as it is standard, has been well ahead in doing the collapso;
CBOT SOYBEAN : We maintain the same outlookThe soybean futures continues performing as anticipated. Wave B in place and the wave C in progress.
Strong Sell signal (ZS soybean) futuresShort term trade entry (ZS Soybean) with risk/reward of 2.03.
Where will soybeans find support?The November soybean market has been on a nice uptrend since the lows from August 8th, and we are seeing some selling coming after we topped out near 1409-5. Looking on the fundamental side, there is concerns for the continued hot and dry weather headed into next week which would support higher process, and the Mississippi water levels continue to decline, having a strong impact on basis.
Seasonally speaking, this is the time of the year where the market attempts to create a new low in the near term, but we are currently trading significantly higher than what we typically see for this time of year.
On the technical side, even though we have seen some selling throughout this week, we are still holding out above some strong levels, where old resistance is acting as support. If the beans continue to sell off on the November contract, there is support near 1367-7 where bulls would need to defend to continue the prices moving higher in the uptrend.
There is also strong trendline support from the May lows, and a break and a close below that level would flip the bias from an uptrend to more neutral or bearish. The average true range (ATR) on this contract is near 25 cents, and so if the market continues lower, we will could see these levels tested in the next few trading days.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soy bean will decreaseThere are a few factors that have contributed to the recent decrease in soybean prices.
A record crop is expected in the United States. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is forecasting a soybean production of 122.7 million tonnes in 2023, which would be a record high. This is due to favorable weather conditions and an increased area under cultivation.
Good crop conditions in South America. Soybean production is also expected to be strong in South America, with Brazil and Argentina forecast to produce record crops. This is due to El Niño, which is bringing more rainfall to the region.
Weakening demand. Soybean demand is also weakening, as China has been importing less soybeans due to its own record crop.
Entry: 1398'4 - 1399'6
SL: 1406.50
TP1: 1393'6
TP2: 1387'2
TP3: 1376.75
Are Soybeans Headed for New Highs?Soybeans gapped higher Sunday night following Friday afternoon's release of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour findings.
Wait...what the heck is the Pro Farmer Crop Tour?
It's pretty much what it sounds like, but probably on a bigger scale than what you're thinking. Over the course of 4 days crop scouts (including myself) pulled a Pro Farmer record 1,800 samples of corn and 1,800 samples of soybeans across 7 states which make up for nearly 70% of corn and soybean acres. Each year, the Tour is divided into two sides, the East and the West. Within each of those sides are about 20 different routes that are split amongst groups of 2-4 scouts per car. The Scouts come from a wide variety of backgrounds including farmers, brokers, reporters, and hedge funds. Each team of scouts is tasked with collecting samples from random corn and soybean fields every 12-15 miles along their given route.
So what did the find?
With all the data from last week in, Pro Farmer estimates the national average soybean yield at 49.7 bushels per acre with the margin of error being +/- 2%, which puts the yield range from 48.7-50.7bpa (below the current USDA estimate). With the soybean crop still developing, weather will continue to be a big focus. Weather outlooks throughout the Midwest into the middle of September suggest above normal temperatures coupled with below normal precipitation levels which could hinder yield potential. With uncertainty still looming, new crop weekly options could be a great tool for producers, end-users, and traders to consider using to help manage risk or to express an opinion in the market.
How does the chart look?
Through the month of August the chart has been firming up, posting a string of higher highs and higher lows over the last two weeks. If the Bulls can keep this momentum going we could see a retest of the July highs which come in from 1428-1435. If the Bulls fail to defend the Sunday night gap higher and we close back below that pocket (1390 1/2-1392), we could see that trigger some long liquidation.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT SOYBEAN NOV23 (LONG)Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures ended lower on Tuesday after the U.S. government increased its crop condition rating more than expected.
I am expecting that the price will go higher in short period of time based on the uprising channel formation.
Price moves, narrative follows.Words..words...words. Always remember, E.P.D.s stands for expected progeny differences. Key word here is expected.
Soybeans test SIGNIFICANT support. Will it hold?November soybean prices (ZSX2023) have been hit hard after failing to get out above significant resistance in the last week of July. We’ve previously outlined that resistance pocket in our daily reports as 1427 ¾-1435, which has been a brick wall for the market dating back to the spring of 2022. Since the recent technical failure, prices have retreated nearly $1.50. So, was the selloff all technical? No, there were fundamental forces at play. The November soybean contract is what grain traders refer to as “the new crop contract”, meaning it is the crop that is in the ground right now and will be harvested in the fall. During this time of year crop development is key, which means weather is key. Cooler temperatures and precipitation across the Midwest over the last few weeks have alleviated concerns around drought conditions which acted as a headwind for prices, triggering long liquidation which can be seen in the most recent Commitment of Traders report. That report showed Funds reduced their net long position by about 26k contracts, shrinking it to about +95k futures/options contracts. That selling pressure has taken prices back to some significant support levels, which we’ve outlined as a pocket from 1282-1290. That pocket represents the 100-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement, derived from the lows in May to the highs in July. On top of that, it happens to also be the breakout point from the June 30th acreage report. From the risk reward side of things, we feel that this support pocket is a great opportunity for the Bulls and Bears alike. For the Bears who’ve been short, this may be an opportunity to reduce exposure. For the Bulls, this is a spot to take a look at the long side. A break and close below that support pocket would be the “tap-out point” as it could open the door for additional long liquidation with the next support pocket not coming in until 1256-6. It’s important to note that there is a USDA report this Friday which could have big implications on price action, so managing risk will be important (as usual). CME Group offers new crop weekly options that expire every Friday. With new crop weekly options expiring on the day of this report, market participants may look to utilize these options as a cost-effective way to help manage price risk or express an opinion in the market. You can check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Will the sell-off in grains hold?Grains have been on a pullback since the last WASDE and we have another one coming up in a couple of weeks when stocks and demand will all be forefront in how much more prices could hold and go higher. The weekly CoT report from the CFTC showed net new buying and short covering from the soybean spec traders during the past week. That throws the the net longs for the November expiration by about 25k contracts to 120,739. Commercial hedgers added 42k new shorts amounting to about 10-12% of the overall open interest through the week taking their net short positions to 187,370 contracts.
Support now sits in a 50-odd point price band between 1295~1346 and falling to the lower edge of this support cannot be ruled out given the situation with supply and true demand. Last week, export numbers were encouraging causing some stir in prices as we squeezed higher. The downside here has more potential owing to the imbalance in longs-vs-shorts. Keep and eye on the support band and trade cautiously.
Short-term, resistance is at 1380.25 and the initial profit target for the short trade is 1340.
zsx23 The reason... blah, blah, blah. Remember the old bible rhyme. Oh the C. H. A. R. T, that's the thing for me. Something like that anyway.
SOYBEAN FUTURES (LONG)I am looking for a long position in Soy and the probability to go higher is high. A long position will be entered at the price given.
Soybean Prices Continue to ClimbSoybean futures prices are continuing to grind higher in the early morning trade, taking prices back towards the upper end of the recent range with more significant resistance coming in near the psychologically significant $14.00 level. We continue to believe the Bulls have the technical advantage so long as the Bulls continue to defend 1315-1320. A break and close below that pocket would neutralize our bias.
Today's USDA report is scheduled to be released at 11am CT.
The average analyst estimate for yield comes in at 51.4 bushels per acre. The average production estimate is 4.253 billion bushels.
Soybeans poised for a drop?Soybeans have certainly caught our attention as a classic head and shoulders pattern has emerged, suggesting a possible trend reversal. This implies a potential drop equivalent to the height from the head to the neckline, taking us towards the 900 level. Could this be signalling more downside in the soybean market?
The current price action is intriguing as an attempt to break the neckline was rejected and prices now hover just below the neckline. Is this the prime moment to consider a short position on soybeans? We think it's worth exploring, and here's why...
As we’ve last pointed out in the “It’s Corn!” idea in March, prices of the 3 major agriculture crops, Soybean, Wheat and Corn generally move together. Back then, we were highlighting the excessive premium in Corn futures as well as the break of a technical chart pattern. Now, we're witnessing a similar tale with Soybean stepping into the spotlight.
From 2019 until now, these three crops have jockeyed for position in terms of percentage gain. Currently, Soybean is in the lead, when compared to Wheat and Corn, in terms of % gain from pre-COVID times and the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Another way to look at it is to compare the ratio between Soybean & Corn as well as Wheat. The Soybean/Corn ratio is now at the higher end of its 7-year range, and while the Soybean/Wheat ratio not as extreme, is still closer to its range top.
Another interesting dynamic we can look into is the Natural Gas – Fertilizers – Soybean dynamic. As natural gas is a key input in fertilisers production, the spectacular fall in natural gas prices has preceded falling fertiliser prices. This in turn, impacts soybean prices as well.
Hence, we see a potential downside for Soybean as it trades at a premium as compared to Corn & Wheat. We can consider a short position on the Soybean Futures at the current level of 1340 with a stop at 1450 and take profits at 1250 followed by a subsequent take profit level at 900. This will allow profits on the anticipated downward move while also considering the head and shoulders pattern's target. CME’s Soybean Futures is quoted in U.S. cents per bushel. Each 0.0025 increment equal to 12.5$.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
November Soybeans DivergenceThere is divergence between price and oscillators such as Bollinger Band %B, Accumulation/Distribution AD%, RSI, DMI, and MACD. Price has also retested a point of control level just shy of 1400’ after attempting a significant drop down to 1100’. The red circle highlights that the lower BB has curled up after an up move in price suggesting the up move in price is over. The main support is the 20-day SMA which appears to have been the reason for the most recent move up. There is room for significant downside. Natural gas prices have collapsed and there has been ample rain in the US as of late. Looking for day trade short entries and setting a stop at B/E asap is probably a good approach. Will be watching this tonight (Sunday night 6/9/23).
Additional notes:
Wheat has an epic H&S with retest of neckline
Corn is putting in new 2-year lows
wheat has a 50% drop from its peak
corn has a 40% drop from its peak
soybeans have a 25% drop from their peak (it may have some catching up to do)
Price of Soybeans Relative to CornBig inflection point! Soybeans are the most expensive relative to Corn since December 2020, but they are also hitting trend line resistance.
1D: Soybean Future...Rising wedge appears in progressAs above.
Rising wedge on the 1D chart...breakdown >>>> breakout potential. 1300-1280 possible target if turns bearish.
Good luck traders!
TOFU Futures UpdateThe Fed and ECB maintained a hawkish stance but the market pumped anyways. This is beginning to look like a bull flag on tofu futures.
The problem is, the Fed never reduced their balance sheet so there's too much money floating around. www.federalreserve.gov
Get ready for rebound inflation later this year. In fact, it may even show up in June numbers next month. The inflation battle isn't over yet, but enjoy the bull ride until the numbers come out.
