ZW1! trade ideas
Wheat looks set to break higherLooking at wheat zw1! across three charts (renko 10pt, 5pt, and 1pt), it looks like they have achieved some type of confluence and are staged to break higher.
Entry setup would have been on the 1pt chart on the 27th with the second test of the 100EMA. However, I'm looking to enter long based on how market opens this coming week.
Targets are 510 and 550 on the zw1! chart. Actual entry will be with the e-mini July Wheat.
On TV, I track WHEATUSD for the real-time data feed.
Short Wheat ZW1!US Wheat (Chicago) hit the upper line of the triangle I draw in the weekly chart. This line - for now - hold and wheat did not move higher.
Furthermore, volume did not really increased during the upmove of the last two to three days. This is even more striking in the weekly chart, where volume decreased in the last three weeks while wheat moved up.
This is a strong signal for falling prices.
On the fundamental side:
The US Dollar Index broke out of its triangle and is about to move higher in the next couple of weeks.
The Ruble devalued further against the US Dollar Index.
Both are important reasons for falling US Wheat prices.
But: Spring wheat seedings are behind - in the US and Russia (this is especially important for Russia). This might have a strong effect on Chicago Wheat. If Wheat moves above the upper triangle line / breaks out, then this is the reason.
Therefore, a close stop should be put in place a little bit above the (blue) uppper triangle line.
The next support line is at around 478.
July Wheat Bullish GartleyWheat appearing to be building out a Bullish Gartely. The breach of the 20 day MA puts us in a possible continued sell off. Downside target for bears is S1 459'1. If Wheat uses MA for another upside bounce we would be looking at further upside to 499'6, but with all the other grain markets in the same condition, down, we expect further downside.
Short WheatDue to a weaker Ruble, Wheat from Russia becomes more competetive which should be solved by a partial decline of US Wheat prices (and by a partial increase in Russia Wheat prices - higher demand for Russian Wheat).
Furthermore, USDA does not expect a declining "Ending Stocks" for Wheat this season although US Weather around Kansas is still very unfavorable for Winter Wheat conditions.
World Ending Stocks expected: Estimates (April) = 254 Million MT, March = 252 Million - but this is mostly due to a higher estimated "World Beginning Stock" (instead of 252 Million, the world started with 254 Million in this season).
Therefore, I expect US (Chicago) Wheat prices to fall to around 462 (next support area). A stop loss should be placed a little bit above 478 (now a resistance area).