Short on Wheat (Chicago)
The contract was in an upwards trend until it hit a trend line (1st / 2nd of March) I drew in the weekly chart (possible triangle formation). The resistance in form of the trend line hold and the price started to fall. It broke the first support line at 478 (last high) and the second support area at 462 / 459 (last low) with increasing volume. In my view that is a clear sign that the price might fall further until it hits the trend line at roughly 425 / 430 (part of the possible triangle formation I drew in the weekly chart). The support area at 462 / 459 now becomes a resistance area.
My idea is supportet by weather conditions around the world (22nd of March):
USA / Canada:
Although key wheat producing areas around Kansas have been too dry, relief is expected from the 25th of March onwards. The forecasted precipitation will especially relief dry conditions in Oklahoma and Texas.
Furthermore, temperatures are going to be higher than usual in the next two days.
All in all: More favorable conditions for wheat.
Europe:
Temperatures have been significantly lower than usual, although no frost damage is expected. Germany and the Northern parts of Eastern Europe have been to dry. Precipitation is expected for the period: 25th of March - 29th of March. Temperature is going to increase, too.
All in all: More favorable conditions for wheat.
Black - Sea - Region:
Temperatures have been significanly lower than usual, too. A thick snow cover protected winter crop. No significant damage is expected. But, temperatures are expected to stay lower than usual. Cold weather and the thick snow cover prolong dormancy and this might after all have a negative effect on the crop yield.
All in all: Conditions are not perfect. Neverthless, a high crop yield is expected.
China:
Temperatures are forecasted to be significantly higher than usual in important wheat growing areas (esp. in the East of China).
All in all: Favorable conditions for wheat.
No extrem weather or significant dryness is expected within the next week. Extrem drought in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas is reliefed thanks to precipitation in the coming week.
US - Dollar is for dollar dominated commodities an important factor. A week Dollar boosts prices.
I expect the US Dollar to fall to 89.02 / 88.50. Here is an important resistance. This might not be favorable for Chicago Wheat price but one has to consider that US Wheat is still highly priced compared to its competiton in the Black Sea Region.
So all in all, I think that the price should fall further.
ZW1! trade ideas
ZW SHORT on 497 Stop on 534Not more than %1 risk on capital, idea is not so brilliant but wort to try.
Guys I am sorry I do not enter detail on how I chosee my positions but I can not give detail. I can just say it is systematic and based on COT and Technical analysis together with aware of my emotions (let's say three leg table).
There are many different type of COT analysis I know but what I use is a little bit different because I do not follow money mnagaers or leveraged funds I follow farmers...
Wheat Head and ShouldersMarch and May wheat appear to be building a head and shoulders. RSI is moving down and wheat crossed and stayed below the 20 day MA today. Neckline is at 460. We may get another bull move before a possible neckline break. Be warry of another bull move out of head and shoulders. Head comes in at 479 for May. If H&S happens, minimum fall expected to be 448'6.
Wheat Looking for StrengthWheat was on a little upsurge and looking for more strength to rally. Made a possible bear flag today. USDA report comes out Jan 12 and is people are expecting it to be bearish in scope. See a fall out down maybe a little. Weather starting to grown warmer for the weak with precipitation behind. Right now I am showing a Bearish Gartley. Should know more next week of the bottom is going to fall out of wheat.
WHEAT, in retraction to zone 446
WHEAT, in retraction to zone 446
which should provide good support and make it bounce
continuing the medium to long-term trend
XiNiaN 4 - Trading System - V. 2.9.1 - Medium / Long Term Period - (Time Frame: 1 H)
WHEAT ZWZ17 - Dec '17
LONG since20.09.2017 from 446.66
Flat Under 446.07
SHORT Below 436.53
Stop SHORT if daily close > 434.62
WHEAT ZWZ17 - Dec '17
CROC X1 - Supports / Resistors - Multiday (TF - 1H)
R3 = 475.2
R2 = 474.40
R1 = 473.00
PIVOT = 460.50
S1 = 448.00
CROC X3 - Last Signal (Long Term - TF 1D)
LONG from 445.00
since 18/09/2017
WHEAT, improving ..WHEAT, improving ..
ADX / DMI multiday is flat and there are good chances that
start long in the next sessions
A closing time over 448 and a daily closing above 450 is fundamental.
The medium-long period will start long with a closing time above 451.48
XiNiaN 4 - Trading System - V. 2.9.1 - Medium / Long Term Period - (Time Frame: 1 H)
WHEAT ZWZ17 - Dec '17
SHORT since 24.07.2017 from 521.55
Flat Over 441.78
LONG Above 451.48
Stop LONG if daily close <453.41
the long-time period will start long with a weekly closing over the 445
WHEAT ZWZ17 - Dec '17
CROC X1 - Supports / Resistances - Multiday (TF - 1H)
R3 = 474.4
R2 = 473.00
R1 = 448.00
CROC X3 - Last Signal (Long Term - TF 1D)
FLAT from 445.00
since 13/09/2017
Dec wheat is looking cheapWhen we look out a year and a bit Wheat is looking to be at a big premium to this Dec wheat, so at this extreme will add in a long dec/dec calendar tot eh already short put position.
Please hit me up if anyone has any questions when looking to try one of these low cost spread trades.
WHEAT, the downhill seems to slow down,WHEAT, the downhill seems to slow down, but I would not venture new markdowns
The CM_laguerre indicator must discharge, either with a fast down or a lateral phase at these levels
WHEAT - ADX / ADM - TS V. 2.8.4 - Intraday Levels for 30/08/17
ADM - Average Daily Movement - Intraday Levels
Entry on close 1H (hourly candle) ... if exceeded the indicated level
On the ZWZ17 Contract - Dec '17
LONG if> 433.11
TP1 = 438.39
TP2 = 444.25
TP3 = 455.96
Stop Loss = 426.09
SHORT if <426.09
TP1 = 420.81
TP2 = 414.95
TP3 = 403.24
Stop Loss = 433.11
WHEAT, weakness comingWHEAT, weakness coming
The CM_ Laguerre indicator says it should go down
in the next few hours. So it's possible to start an entry short entry with
first target at 426.03
WHEAT - ADX / ADM - TS V. 2.8.4 - Intraday Levels for 28/08/2017
ADM - Average Daily Movement - Intraday Levels
Entry on close 1H (hourly candle) ... if exceeded the indicated level
On the ZWZ17 Contract - Dec '17
LONG if> 438.87
TP1 = 444.37
TP2 = 450.49
TP3 = 462.72
Stop Loss = 431.53
SHORT if <431.53
TP1 = 426.03
TP2 = 419.91
TP3 = 407.68
Stop Loss = 438.87
WHEAT, weakness comingWHEAT, weakness coming
The CM_ Laguerre indicator says it should go down
in the next few hours. So it's possible to start an entry short entry with
first target at 426.03
WHEAT - ADX / ADM - TS V. 2.8.4 - Intraday Levels for 28/08/2017
ADM - Average Daily Movement - Intraday Levels
Entry on close 1H (hourly candle) ... if exceeded the indicated level
On the ZWZ17 Contract - Dec '17
LONG if> 438.87
TP1 = 444.37
TP2 = 450.49
TP3 = 462.72
Stop Loss = 431.53
SHORT if <431.53
TP1 = 426.03
TP2 = 419.91
TP3 = 407.68
Stop Loss = 438.87
Wheat flat to upI have a big picture tool I use that has been very good to me and it is now indicating shorting puts in wheat will be a good spot to take advantage of a sideways or climbing wheat prices. I will trade the 31 DTE options and will move down to the 30 delta strike put to give it a bit of wiggle room. Not a big trade but not much buying power is used either
WHEAT, weakness comingWHEAT, weakness coming
The Laguerre indicator is ready to discharge, this
could start a short entry in the evening with the target
in area 449
WHEAT - ADX / ADM - TS V 2.8.4 - Intraday Levels for 10/08/2017
ADM - Average Daily Movement - Intraday Levels
Entry on close 1H (hourly candle) ... if exceeded the indicated level
ON the ZWU17 Contract - Sep '17
LONG if> 464.73
TP1 = 470.28
TP2 = 476.44
TP3 = 488.77
Stop Loss = 454.07
SHORT if <454,07
TP1 = 448.52
TP2 = 442.36
TP3 = 430.03
Stop Loss = 464.73
WHEAT, weakness comingWHEAT, weakness coming
The Laguerre indicator is ready to discharge, this
could start a short entry in the evening with the target
in area 449
WHEAT - ADX / ADM - TS V 2.8.4 - Intraday Levels for 10/08/2017
ADM - Average Daily Movement - Intraday Levels
Entry on close 1H (hourly candle) ... if exceeded the indicated level
ON the ZWU17 Contract - Sep '17
LONG if> 464.73
TP1 = 470.28
TP2 = 476.44
TP3 = 488.77
Stop Loss = 454.07
SHORT if <454,07
TP1 = 448.52
TP2 = 442.36
TP3 = 430.03
Stop Loss = 464.73
WHEAT, target doneWHEAT, target done
Take profit, the laguerre indicator is beautiful red
and calls downhill. Probably goes down to testing the pivot in zone 463
WHEAT ZWU17 - Sep '17
CROC X1 - Supports / Resistances - Multiday (TF - 1H)
R3 = 481.6
R2 = 480.80
R1 = 468.60
PIVOT = 463.00
S1 = 457.40
S2 = 454.20
S3 = 449.00
CROC X3 - Last Signal (Long Term - TF 1D)
SHORT from 470,40
Since 08/01/17
WHEAT, target doneWHEAT, target done
Take profit, the laguerre indicator is beautiful red
and calls downhill. Probably goes down to testing the pivot in zone 463
WHEAT ZWU17 - Sep '17
CROC X1 - Supports / Resistances - Multiday (TF - 1H)
R3 = 481.6
R2 = 480.80
R1 = 468.60
PIVOT = 463.00
S1 = 457.40
S2 = 454.20
S3 = 449.00
CROC X3 - Last Signal (Long Term - TF 1D)
SHORT from 470,40
Since 08/01/17
WHEAT possible entry long to start in the upcoming hourly closinWHEAT possible entry long to start in the upcoming hourly closing times
WHEAT - ADX / ADM - TS V. 2.8.4 - Intraday Levels on 07/08/17
ADM - Average Daily Movement - Intraday Levels
Entry on close 1H (hourly candle) ... if exceeded the indicated level
ON the ZWU17 Contract - Sep '17
LONG if> 460,34
TP1 = 466.31
TP2 = 472.94
TP3 = 486.21
Stop Loss = 448.86
SHORT if <448.86
TP1 = 442.89
TP2 = 436.26
TP3 = 422.99
Stop Loss = 460.34
WHEAT, Short to the test of the support at 457.40WHEAT, Short to the test of the support at 457.40
WHEAT ZWU17 - Sep '17
SHORT since 25.07.2017 from 492.85
Flat Over 491.84
LONG Above 512,00
Stop LONG that close daily <516.03
WHEAT ZWU17 - Sep '17
CROC X1 - Supports / Resistors - Multiday (TF - 1H)
R3 = 481.6
R2 = 480.80
R1 = 468.60
PIVOT = 463.00
S1 = 457.40
S2 = 454.20
S3 = 449.00
CROC X3 - Last Signal (Long Term - TF 1D)
SHORT of 470,40
since 01/08/2017
WHEAT, Short to the test of the support at 457.40WHEAT, Short to the test of the support at 457.40
WHEAT ZWU17 - Sep '17
SHORT since 25.07.2017 from 492.85
Flat Over 491.84
LONG Above 512,00
Stop LONG that close daily <516.03
WHEAT ZWU17 - Sep '17
CROC X1 - Supports / Resistors - Multiday (TF - 1H)
R3 = 481.6
R2 = 480.80
R1 = 468.60
PIVOT = 463.00
S1 = 457.40
S2 = 454.20
S3 = 449.00
CROC X3 - Last Signal (Long Term - TF 1D)
SHORT of 470,40
since 01/08/2017