Wheat - Mar $4 Support?Bulled up... just a matter of weather* $4 support holds or we drop down to 3.5 levels
Trend line resistance erroded
ZW1! trade ideas
Wheat Bearish FlagMay Wheat is forming a bearish flag. Could fall into Cypher extension heading for a double bottom. Looking for confirmation of a start near centre of the flag downwards and continues downwards. RSI still trending downwards
Wheat - bullish opportunityIf we see a pullback from the lower side of this channel and the 144 Smoothed MA, bulls are going to deliver wave {v}
WHEAT close to a YUGE breakoutWheat is testing important long-term cloud and trend line resistance. A breakout above 470-480$ area could signal a very big move ahead. Minimum target will be close to 600$. Must be patient and wait for breakout.
Wheat Bullish FlagJune Wheat produced a bullish flag today. Upside target 475 area. Looking for Bullish Gartley completion at 480 and above. Long term target double top at 488
Positive, but not there yet!I just adjusted the weekly multi-year bearish trendline to candle peaks.
Indication is bullish (see EWO, MACD and haDelta), but the break has not yet happened.
If price dips in coming weeks, then we will have to look for buy signals in 435-445 range, otherwise just buy the break and close above 475.
Wheat - diagonal triangleThere's a possible diagonal triangle in wave (C), so bulls are likely going to deliver an upward impulse in wave 1 or A
Long wheat!!!Hello friends
Hope trading is going well. Feb was quiet month for me. I did not had too many setups on my timeframe and my pairs. Took wheat long at close yesterday. Reasons are:
On weekly, i see bullish consolidation as ha delta is above 0 and price is above trendline. Chikou above price.
Daily is bullish. Price is above Tenkan now and hadelta is above 0. I saw decent risk reward here. So i am long. Have stop in place in case it doesnt work.
I am also watching few stocks. Will post them tomorrow. Really tired today. In case you want to check them out, they are TASR, INTC, MGM and NVDA.
Happy trading.
CBoT wheat dailyThe daily MAY17 chart shows that price has been under control of a long term descending resistance trend line that started during the 2nd half of July 2016 which was broken by price to the upside on January 5.
From there on price traded an ascending channel which has its origin at the 406 level on December 23 and offered support to price on January 30 and on February 7. Price has now again arrived at same supportive ascending line which should offer immediate support from Monday’s session onward.
The ascending line starts at 445 on Monday and ends at 450 by the end of the week. We will allow price to pierce through same support but we do not want to see price trading below 427 in which case we will have to reconsider our bias.
CBoT wheat weeklyThe weekly continuation chart shows that the price has been moving in a long term descending trending price channel that started in July of 2012 at around the 900/930 level and gradually channeled price down to 466 in September 2014 after which price made, although reluctantly, a new low at around the 485 level during August 2016.
From late December 2016 onwards price hesitantly started making modest new highs and has not tested back the most recent low. The interesting in this price channel is the fact that price has not been testing the lower line of the channel since September 2014 and made only one modest lower lows on the chart since.
Price has developed a descending wedge that roughly started between May and September 2014. The TA rule of an ascending wedge is that price, eventually, will break out of same wedge to the upside which usually happens between 2/3rd and 3/4th of the wedge and which has happened 3 weeks ago indeed. Usually, price then makes a test back to the upper line of the wedge which then serves as support which now seems to be developing.
Wheat Bearish FlatA bearish flag has developed on July Wheat. How much fall there will be is the issue. USDA reports for 2017 are less bushels than last year, but there are still large supplies hanging over wheat, corn and especially soybeans.
The Bottom Many Have Been Looking For: WheatIf I were asked to pick just one asset to be long in 2017, I'd consider wheat as my top choice.
I am still long from 422. As shown below, I got stopped out but managed to re-enter at that exact price.
Wheat Has Completed A Bearish Butterfly and AB=CD PatternI had an order set to short 1 pip above the current high of the day and didn't get picked up. I have since moved the order to the high as shown in the chart. Risk:Reward is pretty nice and looking left (further left than on this chart) there is some structure which supports this as a supply zone.
Wheat has been looking pretty bullish so it would probably be advisable to wait for a bearish signal on a lower time frame. Let me know what you think about Wheat!
CBoT wheatThe daily chart shows that price has been moving within the boundaries of a descending price channel until January 4 when price broke out of same channel at the upside. With the break out of price the upper line of the price channel has now changed its character from resistance to support. The zone between, roughly, 410 and 400 is now a supportive region which has been tested back on January 11 and which could be tested one more time before price hikes up.
Still neutral in the range. Trades at equilibriumFrom this setup we can not really decide what to do. It can either was through the thin and flat Kumo cloud, or Kijun holds and then price reverses up quickly. Not an easy call, as my system is a trendfollowing system, while Wheat it's clear Wheat has not been trending since July-August/2016.
Maybe haOscillator gives slightly bigger chance for Kijun to hold. We need few more days to get clarity.
Based on technical setups, Corn is still a better candidate for long in case.
WHEAT | Weekly Chart A rather logical looking interpretation. There's a reasonable degree of support, whilst we're buying in the lowest percentiles of the last decade. Further, the probability of the downtrend being breached looks increasingly likely. Further, the return distribution of commodities is particularly convex or asymmetric with a long right tail. Thus, we can give the position similar treatment to that which we might a long option trade.
Maybe it's different this timeObviously we need a break and confirmation, but Heikin-Ashi price action looks different compared to three previous cases, when Wheat could not hold gains at its trading range top, and fell sharply.
If range breaks on top side, bullish price objective will be 470-480.
(Note: market is closed today)
CBoT wheatWheat:
Price has made a decisive move up during the past week and broke out of the descending price channel. The upper line of same price channel has been serving as resistance during the past 6 months and is considered to be support now. We are now looking for a pullback of price towards the supportive zone from where we expect price to make another impulsive move up to the 440 region.
Indecision, inverse divergence, some positive biasWheat market has been struggling to find direction since October. Is it just another consolidation of the long term beari market, or can it be some kind of bottom building?
Weekly:
- Major beartish trend since the July/2012 peak. Ichimoku has been bearish since 2013.
- Market has been consolidatig for almost 4 months now. No lower low since Aug/2016.
- Heikin-Ashi signal is neutral, shows indecision. haDelta crosses above SMA3 but the indicator is stuck at zero. haDelta+ points down, but has no momentum
- MACD is below zero, but no bearish cross right now.
- EWO is bearish, but value ticks higher.
- Bearish supports are: 440 and 455. A weekly close above 455 would open space for a strategic bull market.
Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral, all averages are flat arund 410 level, and Kumo ahead is thin. This means market has not been trending for 52+26 = 78 days.
- Heikin-Ashi has some bullish bias now. 7-8th/Dec market failed to continue bearish. After a doji candle we have the second green candle today (with somehow less convincing lower high -> bit of momentum loss). haDelta+ is above zero and points up.
- MACD showed/shows something interesting too: looks like an inverse negative divergence, which means that MACD made a lower low, while price did not. This is often an early bullish signal. Let's see if MACD crosses up, to confirm more bullish force
- EWO is neutral.
While the big picture is still neutral, in short term bearis may step back and bulls may get stronger. With a close above 416 market could retest 440-455 strong supp/res zone.
I am playing the long side (from 407.50), without any serious leverage, and with a relatively tight stop.
Wheat 2008-2010 expanded fractalBeing tracking this since September. Starting a position, as inflection point is so close, that it could reverse the trend totally out of the blue as in June 2010.
-Ideal Tgt @ 50% fib ext by March
-Stop @ 3.00
