Indecision, inverse divergence, some positive biasWheat market has been struggling to find direction since October. Is it just another consolidation of the long term beari market, or can it be some kind of bottom building?
Weekly:
- Major beartish trend since the July/2012 peak. Ichimoku has been bearish since 2013.
- Market has been consolidatig for almost 4 months now. No lower low since Aug/2016.
- Heikin-Ashi signal is neutral, shows indecision. haDelta crosses above SMA3 but the indicator is stuck at zero. haDelta+ points down, but has no momentum
- MACD is below zero, but no bearish cross right now.
- EWO is bearish, but value ticks higher.
- Bearish supports are: 440 and 455. A weekly close above 455 would open space for a strategic bull market.
Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral, all averages are flat arund 410 level, and Kumo ahead is thin. This means market has not been trending for 52+26 = 78 days.
- Heikin-Ashi has some bullish bias now. 7-8th/Dec market failed to continue bearish. After a doji candle we have the second green candle today (with somehow less convincing lower high -> bit of momentum loss). haDelta+ is above zero and points up.
- MACD showed/shows something interesting too: looks like an inverse negative divergence, which means that MACD made a lower low, while price did not. This is often an early bullish signal. Let's see if MACD crosses up, to confirm more bullish force
- EWO is neutral.
While the big picture is still neutral, in short term bearis may step back and bulls may get stronger. With a close above 416 market could retest 440-455 strong supp/res zone.
I am playing the long side (from 407.50), without any serious leverage, and with a relatively tight stop.
