Wheat price is about to fallWe think upheaval battle for high wheat prices has been lost and investors taking out their capital from long positions.
ZW1! trade ideas
WHEAT Short From Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
WHEAT is retesting a broken
Key horizontal level of 580'0
Which is now a resistance
And as wheat is in the
Local downtrend I am
Bearish biased so I will
Be expecting a move down
Sell!
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wheatHi everybody I think you can long wheat little by little it is absorbing me .....
Gooooood Luuuuuuuck
Wheat Most Oversold in a Couple DecadesTime to look for an entry.
Apparently, I need to say more to publish this. Okay, good.
Wheat: Harvest time is coming soon! 🌾🚜The price of wheat is currently moving very much in line with our expectations and will soon reach our turquoise target zone between USX 560.60 and 531.10, where the low of the magenta wave (b) is expected. Then we should finally see a reversal and a broad-based rise to USX 807.25. Should the price fall below this zone, we would not change our scenario significantly, but would only expect a move further towards the magenta target zone.
Wheat Support And Resistance With Anchored VWAPIf I look at a bigger picture chart with a renko brick size of 20 on a daily chart on
ZW1! I am noticing we are at a key level of interest. We are at an area of potential support and if I use an anchored vwap starting as far as I can go back, we are sitting right on the volume weighted average price. Either we rally from here or we really breakdown to test those lower supports. Either way there is something here and I would wait for some sort of confirmation before jumping in.
The Unveiled Power of WheatIntroduction
Ever wondered about the captivating world of commodities? Today we’ll dive into a staple that sustains billions: Wheat.
Wheat has an undeniable influence on global market trends, not just for its widespread consumption but also as an important trading commodity. The prevalence of wheat, in fact, dates back to over 10,000 years when it was first domesticated in the Near East’s Fertile Crescent, making it one of the world's oldest food crops.
Whether you’re an investment novice or a seasoned trader, this Q&A article serves as your comprehensive guide.
Why is Wheat Important
Q: What makes wheat such a significant commodity?
A: Wheat is more than just flour and bread; it’s a cornerstone of global food security. It serves as a primary source of nutrition for a large portion of the global population, thus making its price and supply crucial factors affecting economies worldwide.
Market Dominance
Q: Who holds the reins in the wheat market?
A: Countries like Russia, the U.S., Canada, France, and Ukraine are dominant players, controlling the supply chain and thus significantly impacting global prices. The geopolitical interplay among these giants can influence wheat prices, leading to ripple effects in the global economy.
Inflation: Cause and Effect
Q: How does wheat contribute to inflation?
A: Rising wheat prices can lead to increased food prices, contributing to overall inflation. When inflation is high, the purchasing power of money diminishes, affecting consumer behavior and market dynamics.
Commodity vs. Equity: A Tug-of-War
Q: What’s the relationship between commodities like wheat and equity markets?
A: The relationship between commodities such as wheat and equity markets is multifaceted and complex. In essence, when the commodities market, exemplified here by wheat, experiences an upswing, it can often lead to a relative underperformance or stagnation in equity markets. This phenomenon is primarily due to capital reallocation from equities to commodities as investors and traders seek more promising returns.
Such trends can particularly be observed in periods of geopolitical crisis, such as the Russian-Ukraine war, where commodity prices might soar due to supply disruptions. While the bullish commodities market flourishes amidst such circumstances, equity markets may face headwinds. These movements between the markets reveal the intricate interplay between commodities and equities, shaping the dynamics of global finance as a whole.
The Technical Analysis: What’s Coming Next?
Q: What do independent charts tell us about wheat’s future?
A: Based on Fibonacci retracement levels, wheat prices corrected to around $570 (88.2% Fib level) and will probably make a counter-move this year towards the upward 50% Fib level at $967 or even the 61.8% Fib level at $1060. Following this, we could see the price fall below its current position by 2024, aligning with similar patterns observed in oil and sugar. For the sake of clarity, trend directions in the chart are drawn in larger time values.
ChartScope
Summary and Outlook
• Importance: Wheat serves as a fundamental commodity in global food security.
• Market Dominance: Major players like Russia and the U.S. significantly influence wheat prices.
• Inflation Impact: Rising wheat costs contribute to inflation, affecting consumer behavior and financial markets.
• Commodity vs. Equity: In a bullish wheat market, equities often suffer due to capital reallocation and vice versa.
• Technical Analysis: A potential bullish counter-move could occur in the coming months, followed by a longer-term downtrend.
As we navigate through tumultuous financial waters, keeping an eye on wheat and similar commodities is more crucial than ever. So, as you refine your investment strategies, don’t overlook the grain that has fed civilizations for millennia.
Are Wheat Futures Nearing a Bottom? Wheat futures are higher in today's trade but have been under an enormous amount of pressure since marking a double top back on July 25th. In those following 25 trading sessions wheat fell as much as $1.78 with very few attempts at a relief rally in-between.
Despite the persistent selling pressure, the RSI (relative strength index) never dipped below 30 on the daily chart, which is the line in the sand that most technicians use when referencing “oversold”.
During that time we’ve seen the Managed Money (Funds) net short position grow from 40,332 futures and options contracts to 70,921 futures and options contracts (as of 8.22.23).
It appears that seasonality has outweighed concerns over global production and potential logistical issues. This years price action aligns pretty closely with what we’ve seen on the 10, 15, and 20 year average price charts.
Those seasonal averages suggest that a seasonal low wouldn’t come into play until the first week of September. Looking at a more recent 5-year seasonal average price chart, we see that the wheat market has been fishing for a bottom and consolidating a week or two earlier.
What does it all mean?
I’ve always been a big believer that the bottom is a process and not necessarily a point. With that in mind, that process could be in the process of beginning. A close back above previous support from 608-612 could confirm that bias and encourage further buying via (Fund) short covering or “bargain buyers”. The next upside objective above that pocket would be 641-646.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
ZW- Wheat Futures Reverse to Upside LONGZW is shown as the December 2023 contracts on the 2H chart have reversed
in the past two days and price has increased over 2% in that interval.
The indicators show a flip in the volatility and a blue bar volume spike
in the reversal. Price is presently about 15% below the double tops and
pivot highs of June and July. Price is presently crossing over the mean
VWAP anchored 7-8 trading days ago and so demonstrating the bullish
momentum of the past couple of days.
I see this as an excellent long trade setup especially suitable to using
leverage in the trade and expect the uptrend to potentially capture
a 7-8% gain in the retracement of the downtrend then amplified by
the leverage applied.
More upside for wheat?Analysis: Price began to turn higher as resistance at 632.0 is broken out of and now a support level. A retest confirmation at the 632 support region can potentially fuel price further towards the upside.
Long opportunity: Retest confirmation at 632 support region towards 644.75 as Take Profit - 1 level.
CBOT WHEAT SEP23 (LONG)Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures dropped on Tuesday amid technical selling and broad weakness in commodity and equity markets.
We can expect that the price is going to make higher high in small timeframe and a short period of time. This is a low-risk trade with good Risk to Reward Ratio.
WHEAT Wheat
Daily
Shorts
We've been short this many times and continue to see more downside pressure. Targets are within the chart bands. Please give this chart a "Boost" and helps us get the word out and better serve you all.
Wheat :to sellHello,Traders! wheat was in a downtrend
-the wheat is for sale if it does not break the downtrend
WheatWheat price (ZW features) jumped as result of RU breaking deal with UKR. Additionally RU attacked grain terminal in Odessa with rockets. Price raised to 750 and then strongly corrected to below 700. This correction might be due to hopes that grain deal will be restored. Unfortunately, now this looks less likely. Both RU and UKR threaten ships on black see - that will affect the grain transport. Insurance premiums for this route will rise/potentially this also can affect the shipping merchants that do not want to risk their ships to be destroyed. Both RU + UKR is about 30% of grain export.
Weather situation effect on harvest. There is still possible some effects. This will develop.
Assuming now that weather is not major effect for now.
UKR means to transport wheat:
1. Odessa terminal (main route)
2. Danube terminal (river is drying) - improved since 2022.
3. Land routes
Embargos of some EU countries on UKR wheat also complicating situation now (i.e. Poland). Difficulties with land routes.
Expect the price to rise above 800 levels.
ZW1!: Market of Buyers
Balance of buyers and sellers on the ZW1! pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the buyers, therefore is it only natural that we go long on the pair.
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ZW1! Will Grow! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for ZW1!.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 703'2.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 812'7 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Wheat: Time for the turning point ⤴️🚀The recent downward movement has brought the wheat price into our blue trading zone and thus the minimum requirement of the current blue corrective wave (b) has been fulfilled. We expect it to go a little lower, but gradually the price should now form the end of the wave, allowing long entries. In the further sequence, we see the price rising above the resistance at USX 807.25, where we locate the high of the turquoise wave A. However, if the bears dominate and push the price lower, there is a 25% chance that the price will fall below the USX 611.25 support level, which buyers may want to keep in mind.
Wheat - Too FastNature is beautiful.
It's always balancing the underlying energy.
That's what we see here.
Wheat spurted down too fast.
The down-swing can be put in context by the Medianlines.
Here, price has reached it's balance again at the CL.
What's next? I bet for sideways to short action, until we crack the orange CIB line.
Stalking Hat on...
Inflation Cycle – Commodities Lead Inflation NumberThe last 50 years, we have seen gold, commodities, and inflation numbers move in cycles and in tandem together.
Though gold has picked up in recent years, make no mistake, the cycle between them is still intact.
If gold is leading the way, the rest should catch up subsequently.
Gold will likely remain high because of the easy money policy over the decades or the creation of off-balance debt.
Based on past cycle performance, commodities may come into alignment with gold, meaning there is a chance for commodities to catch up with gold.
When that happens, inflation will pick up again.
The inflation data to be reflected, such as the CPI or PCE, is usually a few months behind the commodity prices.
Therefore, the Fed has been in defense mode, combating inflation due to the weakness of the dollar, elevation of gold and firmness in commodities.
Some reference for traders:
Chicago SRW Wheat Futures & Options – Its Minimum Fluctuation
1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50 / ZW
Gold Futures & Options – Its Minimum Fluctuation
0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 / GC
Soybean Oil Futures & Options - Its Minimum Fluctuation
1/100 of one cent (0.0001) per pound = $6.00 / ZL
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Wheat predictions: How winding up grain deal blows up the price The world is "not optimistic" that the grain-export corridor that has allowed it to ship more than 30 million tons of crops amid the Russia - Ukraine tensions will be extended beyond July, the country’s infrastructure minister said Wednesday.
The efficiency of the Black Sea corridor is faltering and crop volumes are declining. Even if prolonged, it won’t be as helpful in offloading the nearing 2023 harvests in its current state.
"We are doing our best in order to maintain this initiative", - Mr. Kubrakov (who signed the deal) said.
The deal — which was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey — has helped lower world food prices and maintain a sector that is vital for Ukraine’s economy.
It is next up for renewal on July 17, nearby July, 2023 CBOT:ZWN2023 Wheat Futures contract expiration.
Russian President Vladimir Putin already signaled that his nation may quit the pact, though the UN has urged all parties to press on.
There are no prerequisites for extending the grain deal, Mr. Peskov, press secretary of the Russian President said on June 21.
The deal has recently been plagued by a persistent slowdown in ship inspections, and Russia’s refusal to approve vessels headed to one of the three ports it covers.
Some 1.3 million tons of crops were shipped via the corridor in May, less than a third of the peak in October, UN figures show.
The technical picture indicates, Wheat Futures contracts are heading up for the 5th consecutive weeks in a row, second time since Q1 2022, last time due to widely known tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
With almost 30 percent gain from 2023 low near 575 cents per bushel, the price breaking up 1/2-year simple moving average, with further upside opportunities, up to 800 cents per bushel.
ZW Wheat Futures (LONG)For wheat we are going to scalp long position as bullish is controlling the trend and the reward quite good compared to the risk.
