Wheat Futures Are Simple (Bullish)Technical Double Bottom
Wait for breakout with Jupu green tag and then pullback to fibs/green shade on Jupu
ZW1! trade ideas
Wheat Double BottomWhen ZW hit the daily support level the second time, it bounced drastically, that's a Sign of Strength (SOS).
Perfect buy opurtunity for Wheat $ZWWheat made a triple botten past year and a double bottem last month. It will go to privious high's
ZW1! Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZW1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 740.75, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 758.00, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and recent high are. Take profit will be at 723.50, where the previous swing low is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Agricultural Commodities - When the Big Elephant Left the RoomCBOT: CBOT:ZW1! , CBOT:ZS1! , CBOT:ZC1! , CME:HE1!
This is the second report in the series “Year of the Rabbit: Short-tailed Trading”.
US inflation began to pick up in March 2021 and rose rapidly throughout the year. Federal Reserve officials told Americans not to worry. It was due to supply chain issues and comparisons to low baseline numbers in 2020 when economies were shut down.
After CPI rose to 7.0% in December, the Fed voted to keep the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% on January 26th, 2022. Inflation would be “transitory”. Just ignore the big elephant in the room and it would go away. That’s the prevailing thinking at the time.
Then a military conflict took place in the former Soviet bloc. The war shock and ensuing impact from embargo of Russian products pushed the prices of commodities, from gold, nickel, crude oil, natural gas, to winter wheat and many others to record high. On March 16th, the Fed raised rate by 25 basis points with a change of heart. This baby step turned into the most intense battle against inflation with seven consecutive rate hikes.
“Strong Dollar, Weak Commodities” and “High Rate, Low Price” became the dominant theme of the global commodities market. Many commodities gave up early gains and priced at or below prewar levels. US headline inflation rate peaked at 9.1% in June and Core CPI (which excludes food and energy) topped in September. They have come down ever since.
2022 was all about geopolitical crises and central bank actions. Along with investor sentiment, they dominated market trends. Economic fundamentals have been left largely unnoticed.
Outlook for 2023
In the new year, these macro factors would likely stay in the back burners. When the big elephant left the room, fundamentals in each market would once again drive commodities prices. Commodities markets might be less volatile compared to last year.
One notable exception is China. The government ended its strict Zero-Covid policies on December 7th. From January 8th, Chinese tourists would be hitting popular travel destinations around the world, after nearly three-year absence. Normalization of daily life and business activity will not only boost China’s economy, but also lend needed support to the global economy which many believe to be on the verge of a recession.
However, surges in Covid cases raise the risk of new and more deadly virus. By one estimate, up to one billion people are already Covid-positive in China. This is one-eighth of the world population! For a thorough analysis of China’s re-opening and its impact, please check out my previous report, The Rise and Fall of Chinese Yuan.
This concludes a high-level overview before we move to discuss what all these mean for agricultural commodities in 2023.
Fundamental Supply and Demand Built on Higher Baseline
While the big elephant has left, it still casts a shadow in the room. Inflation is sticky. Rate increases have lasting impacts long after the hikes are over.
This is evident in food costs. Inflation pushed the cost of producing, processing, distributing, and selling agricultural products to a high level. November CPI for food items was 10.6%, much higher than the headline CPI of 7.1%. The cost for food at home grew 12% annually, indicating a rapid rise in grocery prices. There are no rate cuts nor deflation in sight. This means that food costs will continue to go up, although at a slower pace.
Wheat, corn, and soybean have different supply and demand fundamentals. But CBOT futures price charts show similar patterns for all three in the past three years. As I pointed out earlier, inflation, geopolitical crisis and Fed rate hikes took turns driving commodities markets across the board. Economic fundamentals got set aside.
Volatility is a friend for options traders. Last June, I introduced a Long Strangle strategy on CBOT Wheat (ZC). At the time, wheat price was swung widely by actions in the battlefield. A surprise agreement that allowed Ukrainian grain cargoes to pass the Russia-control Black Sea sent price sharply down, making our put options 400% more valuable.
This year, we will focus on more subtle changes in traditional supply and demand factors, such as planted acreage, weather, yield, and export.
Spread Trade Opportunities
Inflation and rate hikes hit different parts of the agricultural markets differently. For the same commodities, the spread between farm-level price and retail grocery price has become wider due to cost increase.
The commodities used as input in food product and those for output respond to different fundamentals. When inflation and interest rate are moving fast, the traditional price relationship may be temporally dislocated, opening opportunities for spread trades.
Take the example of the Lean Hog market: Last August, USDA Daily Hog and Pork Report showed that benchmark Iowa Carcass Base Price averaged $128/cwt.
Hog Crush Margin represents production profit by hog farmers. It is defined by the value of lean hog (LH) less the cost of weaned pig (WP), corn (C) and soybean meal (SBM).
On August 2nd, I presented the trade idea “Short the Hog Margin If You Expect Lower Pork Price”. It’s a profitable trade. On January 6th, USDA benchmark carcass is quoted at $74, a whopping 42% decline in five months.
For this spread trade, I used a Hog Feeding Spread to replicate the economic hog crush margin with CME lean hog (HE), CBOT Corn (ZC) and CBOT Soybean Meal (ZM). The size of relevant futures contracts: HE, 40000 lbs.; ZC, 5000 bushels; and ZM, 100 short tons. A typical hog feeding spread is 7:3:1, which may be expressed as:
Hog Feeding Spread = 7 x HE – 3 x ZC – 1 x ZM
As I expect hog margin to shrink, I short the spread: Sell hog, buy corn and meal.
I will continue to monitor the agricultural commodities space in the new year. Whenever spreads or other trade opportunities arise, I will present the new ideas on TradingView.
Happy trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
SHORTMarch futures... price declining from a large cycle top
Short Entry
TP - 1 = 636
Use tight stop above 790 usd
Trade safe, good luck
Wheat Weekly Forecast (January 3 – 5, 2023)Uptrend scenario
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 761, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 817 and 848.
Downtrend scenario
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 761, which will be followed by moving down to support level 732.
Wheat Monthly Forecast, January 2023Uptrend scenario
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 723, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 947,2.
Downtrend scenario
An downtrend is not expected this month.
Wheat future : a new Head and Shoulder is developping Wheat future showing a similar pattern previous 1982,1998 and 2008 crashes.
That is pure data analysis, without taking the fundamentals in account.
The 730 support level as from now is therefore highly important.
Weekly Forecast (December 27 – 30, 2022)Uptrend scenario
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 761, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 817.
Downtrend scenario
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 761, which will be followed by moving down to support level 723.
Wheat Potential for Bullish Continuation Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZW1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Price has tapped into my pullback buy entry at 761.50, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 744.75, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 785.50, where the previous swing high and 161.8% Fibonacci extension line are.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Wheat Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZW1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a possible pullback buy entry at 761.50, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 744.75, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 785.50, where the previous swing high and 161.8% Fibonacci extension line are.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Wheat Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZW1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a possible sell stop entry at 745.75, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 761.50, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 731.25, where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
🌾Wheat (ZW): Elliott Wave Analysis●● Preferred count
● Wheat - CBOT (ZW.F), 🕐TF: 1Q
Fig.1
The counting of the wave structure of 1840-1972 has been revised in favor of a supercycly triangle (IV) , the subsequent series of uptrend waves is interpreted as waves I , II and III as part of the unfolding ending diagonal (V) .
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● Wheat Futures (CBOT), 🕐TF: 2W
Fig.2
The target for wave IV may be the Fibo level of 78.6% of wave II .
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● Wheat Futures (CBOT), 🕐TF: 1D
Fig.3
A variant of counting the wave structure of wave III .
The wave structure is expected to become more complex up to the sideways correction. If the correction takes the form of a triangle, as it is schematically depicted in Fig.4 , then a good trading setup will open for opening a short position.
📚 Elliott Wave Guide & Ellott Wave Archive ⬇️⬇️
ZW1! Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZW1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell stop entry at 750.75, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 767.25, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line and previous high is. Take profit will be at 723.50, where the previous swing low is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Wheat Has Topped, But Corrective Recovery Can Be NearWheat has topped, but corrective recovery can be near, as we see it finishing a five-wave cycle from the highs.
Wheat has been in a massive rally at the beginning of 2022 due to war in Ukraine, but now that stocks are trying to stabilize in the second part of 2022, we can see commodities slowing down within deeper corrections.
Wheat has five waves down from the highs into first leg A, now unfolding and finishing wave "5" of A that can stop around 700 - 600 area. So, top is in place temporarily, but corrective pullback in wave B may occur at the beginning of 2023, which can retest the 950 – 1000 resistance area before we will later see more weakness within wave C.
All the best!
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Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
ZW1! Potential For Bullish RiseLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZW1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. However, I am looking to play the pullback. Price has tapped into my buy stop entry at 756.25, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 723.50, where the recent swing low is. Take profit will be at 799.50, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Wheat longUp trend, pull back, dxy is the only thing that can make the moove slower but this thing is going to be insane in the next years
Financial Wave. WheatIn past reviews, we considered the $760 level as critical for our upside scenario in our preferable variant. The price of wheat fell below $760 and the most likely scenario is to continue the decline to the next target level of $600. Today's close above $760 will resume the uptrend.
Strong probability to make profits ZWWe have a strong probability to buy or trading long the ZW market.
Looking at the 15-minute chart, for ZW1! Bullish due to the current price and volume, I am looking to buy and make stop lose on resistance
WHEAT Will Keep Falling! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
WHEAT broke the key horizontal level
And because the commodity is in the downtrend
I am expecting a further move down
Sell!
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See other ideas below too!
Wheat Potential for Bullish RiseLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZW1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. However, I am looking to play the pullback. So, I am looking for a possible buy stop entry at 756.25, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 723.50, where the recent swing low is. Take profit will be at 799.50, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Financial Wave. WheatThe price of wheat fell below $760, we considered this level critical for our growth scenario, let's see where the price will be at the end of the week. Close above $760 gives hope for growth, close below could take wheat to $600.
