Dow Jones 50% Crash In 2027???This post is purely speculation, and I will admit I have no idea what is to come. Just was doing some research and study and I happened to see a striking number of similarities between 2007 and supposed 2027.
2007
2027
Please let me know your opinions. Am I smoking something here? Are they really planning on dumping after 48,000?
MYM1! trade ideas
Dow Jones Weekly Chart Two Legged Pullback In 2025 Open SupportI am seeing a two-legged pullback forming on the weekly chart with a possible higher low forming at the 2025 open. To me, it is looking like price is rolling over from 45,000. Of course, what I would need to see is an engulfment candle next week to confirm. Once and IF this happens, I will be looking for price to slow down and layer into the 2025 open for the bullish bounce.
Dow Jones February NFP Going In BearishThursday on the Daily chart flashed a sell signal for a rejection off of 45,000. I am going in Friday with a bearish bias. Of course, I have no idea what will happen and could always be wrong. To me, this makes the most sense. A sell off to close the gap.
From 45,000 down to 44,300 is a 700 tick move, not unreasonable for a NFP day.
Notable profit targets:
Thursday's Low: 44,658
Weekly Open: 44,570
Wednesday's Low: 44,463
Tuesday's Double Bottom Low: 44,350
Monday's Unmitigated Wick: 44,310
Bullish Pullback Into SupportAfter Yesterday's fumble, on to a new day. I will be looking for a pullback into support marked by the green lines. I was expecting price to retrace a bit more before it bounced but it seems the market decided to bounce yesterday at the weekly open. I can't argue with the market; I can only react to what it does.
I am only interested in finding a buy trade inside of my support area and the next target will be a break of the highs.
720-820 area for support
Next resistance is honestly not here. After the break of the prior highs, we are back into all-time highs and 46,000 is a target.
Yesterday, I decided to try for a short trade back down into support. The trade went 275 ticks for me before rolling over. I am ok with that because my job is to just execute the trade and manage my risk. What the market does after my entry is out of my hands. The market decided that support was at 44,475 and bounced.
Scenario 1:
Pullback into support
Scenario 2:
Price just continues higher and breaks the high from here
Scenario 3:
Price continues, stopping at the highs, pulls back to 45,000 area for support and breaks the highs
Dow Jones Bullish Scenarios for 2/6Two Ideal Morning Scenarios:
1️⃣ Price dumps to the January FOMC level , then forms a W concept, launching it past 44,400+.
2️⃣ Price drops to the 44,000 support zone before reversing for a pump beyond 44,400+.
If we open in these zones, it sets up a golden buying opportunity for all of us.
Let’s lock in!
Dow Jones Range Forming Between 44,000 and 45,000Outlined below, I have a range forming from the Monday Initial balance. The three price levels to watch are:
the weekly open (44,566)
50% of the range (44,393)
the bottom 25% of the range (44,154)
And of course, the high and low of this range. Where does price intend to go first?
I am looking for the weekly open to turn into resistance
I am looking for the low formed at the 50% of the range to be a target to get hit
I am looking for the bottom 25% of the range to act as a major support buy
Currently, in this exact moment, price is in the top 75% of the range and to me, this means No buys and in selling territory. Tuesday opened with a gap up and immediately sold down to the 50% of the range. It then did a creeping trend, grinding higher in a pullback back up into the top 75%. Because of the creeping trend, the low at the 50% and price being in the top 75%, I will find a shorting opportunity and target that low at 44,353
Dow Jones Weekly Template Gameplan February Week 1Now that I have seen Sunday opened and gapped down, I am more inclined to see a bounce off of 44,000 for the gap fill back up to 45,000. I am expecting shorts to get trapped down low right into the middle of the range for the trap and shift.
Either Monday or Tuesday to form the low. This is of course the market doesn't blow right through 44,000 and head down to 43,000 first. I have no clue, just opinions. I will be trading what I see form in front of me.
Dow Jones (March 2025) - End of January AnalysisSimilar to Nasdaq and S&P, although we have closed bullish for the month, Donald Trump has made an announcement that tariffs will be placed in Mexico, Canada and China at a rate of 25% & 10%, which the market did not seem to like on the Friday.
Intraday timeframes tell a different story to what the macro market structure is dictating.
Short term, we could be in for a bearish retracement, rooting out all the stubborn traders who have a medium to long term trade on whilst trailing their stop.
Very interested this month with how YM, NQ and ES delivers.
Dow Jones Range Structure 42,000-46,000 Since September 2024, price has been in a 4000 tick range with 44,000 being in the middle.
Currently, price just bounced off of 45,000.
Support is down in the 42,000 range
Resistance is in the 45,000-46,000 range
Key levels I am looking for is what price will do in the middle. Will it bounce or just go right through? I am also looking at the 2025 opening price and how price will bounce off of it.
Dow Jones February 2025 Monthly GameplanI am looking for a retrace back down to 2025's open price of 42,934 as notated in cyan blue line. After which, I am then looking for the bullish continuation to take out the highs and land around 46,250 zone. The average bullish monthly candle is 2500-3200 ticks using ATR. If price retraces to the yearly open and rallies from there with 3200 ticks, it will reach 46,250. That is my thought process.
Using the 2 Hour, price has been consolidating around 45,000 before rejecting on Friday.
Everything lines up to the tick. The first move higher and the subsequent measured move to the 2nd range expansion is 3200 ticks from high to low. The low from CPI is ripe for the taking.
Of course, this is in preparation in what I believe to be a 20% drop from 48,000 down to 38,000. This trend is far away from the yearly trendline and a pullback to 38,000 would be PRIME buying.
Dow Jones (March 2025) - Trump Has Dow Jones In A Headlock!Happy new year traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on the Dow Jones continuous contract and YMH (March 2025) contract as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias.
With S&P 500 & Nasdaq frontrunning Dow Jones, a close eye must be kept on YM as it might eb the first symbol out of the three stock indexes that decides to capitulate. If that occurs, there's a high chance the others will follow suite.
Dow Jones Thursday Pullback Continuation Day TradeI am looking for a High of Day to be put in place. Then a sell off into the gap support for a pullback. I don't anticipate price to break the low of Wednesday's peak formation low after CPI.
I am looking for NY to open lower before the bullish reversal at said level. I am then expecting price to not only take out the high of day but the range high as well (43,775). This will give Dow a 0.75% gain on the day.
Dow Jones Pullback Trade Idea ShortDow Jones is still in a pullback in this downtrend. I am still bearish on Dow Jones until it hits its measured move.
I am looking for my strike zone inside of the circle.
Market target is 40,625 or the golden line. September 11th is suspended just above this level.
12% Correction Update Since NFP ReleaseJust updating my thesis since I can see NFP started another leg down. Still in a 12% correction down to 40,750.
Next week I am looking for a slight pullback before another leg down/ dump.
Buying in this downtrend is going counter trend. Until we get down to 40,750 and start to see signs of bullish reversals should you then think about going Long. Until the meantime, look for shorts.
I honestly thought price was going to make a double top or more of a pullback in that range before NFP dumped. I guess the market wants to dump sooner and get down to 40,750 faster.
I only react to prices and trade accordingly.
The blue line is 2025 Opens price and so far, price is selling off of it. Next target is the Gold line.
DJIA Index. Shake it. Bake it. Booty Quake It. Roll It AroundMarkets were shaked this Friday after the December employment report came in much stronger than expected.
The economy added 256,000 jobs in December, well above the average economist estimate of 155,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.1% from 4.2% in November.
The Nasdaq 100 immediately dropped by about 1%, while the 10-year US Treasury yield spiked nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, representing its highest level since October 2023.
The strong payroll report further strengthened the case for no more interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, at least for 2025.
The moves in stocks and bonds are a continuation of what's been seen in recent weeks: Following a period of euphoric optimism, investors have started to anticipate higher inflation stemming from President Donald Trump's proposed trade and fiscal policies. If the upward move in bond yields continues, Americans will feel it in a big way.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets now expect just one 25-basis point interest rate cut this year, down from expectations late last year of as many as three. The chances that there will be no rate cuts in 2025 more than doubled Friday morning to 28%.
Dollar index TVC:DXY rockets to the moon, while the 10-yr TVC:TNX strongly above 4.5%.
Endogenously, the market has been preparing for such a turbulence, as it's been discussed in earlier posted idea "Strategy 2025. BTC Airless Scenario Below $100'000 Choking Point" .
I remember, the financial market has had a tough weeks in last December, 2024, but it might also be in store for a tough year in 2025, as I noted those time.
The market was on track for its worst weeks over years after the Federal Reserve gave a hawkish forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025. But looking at the market's internals, it was clear that damage had been inflicted well before the Fed's Wednesday meeting — and the signal is a historic indicator of tough times ahead.
Dow Jones Futures has ended 6th straight RED WEEK in a row - the quite rare event.
The historical back test analysis over last 25 years indicates, it could lead to further (at least) 10 percent decline for Top-30 stock club.
The major technical graph indicates on a bearish trend in development, where major 200-week SMA support is nearly 35'700 points in this time.
The US govt. will not shut down! So where Are we heading now?How interesting is this—markets seemed nervous for 3 weeks as we approached the deadline to fund the U.S. government. The deadline passed over the weekend, and a deal was reached. Yet, here we are, with Dow futures opening down 80 points.
With Christmas Eve tomorrow, it looks like the Santa rally got canceled this year. Five Dow components are already in bear market territory (down more than 20% from their highs).
So, what do you think? Is this the perfect spot for a pullback, or do we rally from here? I’ll be looking for weak spots to short with a tight stop—and I’d love to hear your thoughts.
Leave your comments below!
Non Farm Payroll Range Chop Gameplan (No Go For Me)Looking over the past 15 Non-Farm Payrolls, this one is shaping up to be a stop hunt wicks on both sides.
I am not interested in getting chopped up and whipped back and forth. I will sit this one out.
To me, it is most likely looking the most like January 2024.
My whole point is, I don't know how far it will wick on both sides.
Dow Jones - 5th wave to continue.....eventually?This count suggests that we could be in the middle of an extended 5th wave for this index and at present it is undergoing a 4th wave correction. As the wave 2 correction was simple, EW theory suggests that this correction might be a bit more complex. How high extended 5th waves can go is anyone's guess but this one has found some confluence around the 50,000 mark.