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MZC1! trade ideas

Is Corn building a major bottom?If you followed my last trades via Twitter, I had some long Corn position from 329 average, which I closed when I saw Heikin Ashi exhaustion and reversal signal ard 340 +/- range top. It was a good decision, as price again dipped back to Kijun. Let's see the details as of today. Weekly: - Small change in Ichimoku setup. Still bearish, but as Tenkan dropped down to price after 9 weeks, by now Price is above Tenkan. Price is still far below Kijun Sen and forward Senkou B. (26 weeks as 52 weeks averages, which are at same level now: 376+) - The whole picture looks like a 2 years wide range with 319 low, 425 high and 376 mid equilibrium. Unless bears get back into action and force a lower low on weekly close, longer term averages will not move any lower, they will stay around 376. - MACD is very interesting. In case it crosses up, bears will not have enough power to push corn market lower, and then pull back to 360-376 could take place. - Heikin-Ashi has some bearish bias this week, but haDelta and haOscillator are still stuck at zero. Daily: - Ichimoku is neutral, as price seem to hold above Kijun Sen again. Please note how low volatility is causing a Kumo compression: Forward Senkou A and B lines got very tight. A thinner Kumo ahead would be easier to break through. - Heikin-Ashi ma signal a bullish reversal today. haDelta crossed up, haOscillator may follow if today we have an inside candle. - EWO is neutral - ATR has been very low. This also reflects lack of volatility. Commodites may trade sideaway with low volatility for some time, but once they decide to trade in direction, the moves are always sharp. This is why I like low volatility environments. My money management system always calculates with ATR when building a position. Lower ATR means more tradable contracts for one trade unit size, with still same nominal cash risk.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Kumowizard
2
CBoT corn longCorn: Price has been moving more sideways than anything else really during the past week which was not a very significant. Price will ideally make one more initial move to the downside during Monday/Tuesday next and might even trade into the 325/320 zone after which we expect price to resume its ascend again. We keep our bias unchanged that a bottom is in the market and price will trade up from here with 375 as first target for week 41 or maybe later. A break of the previous low on August 31 would negate our bias and would force us to go back to the drawing board.
CBOT:ZCZ2016Long
by Remko
CBoT corn has found its long term tradable bottomCorn: Price is keeping our preferred path as laid out last week reasonably well thus far. What we now need to see is that price keeps developing accordingly and will not break its previous low of 314/315. It could be that price will test the 330/335 supportive zone one more time and pull down through this zone to 325 or so but that should, if it happens at all, a very short times affair. We keep our bias unchanged that a bottom is in the market and price will trade up from here with 375 as first target for week 41.
CBOT:ZCZ2016Long
by Remko
CBoT Corn almost ready for the long term run upCorn: Price has pushed a bit lower during the first half of the week and did make a reversal during the second half of the week. It could be that price has actually hit the low an that this low will turn out to be the low for a long time. However, after having called for a low too early 2 or 3 times during the past weeks we have become a bit more cautious and want to see confirmation. Besides, there is no hurry to jump into this market as with the picture as it currently develops we will certainly see a test of same low so we won't miss too much of it. There is a resistance zone at the 330/335 zone where price traded to during last Friday and a decisive break of same will give us the green light to look for higher levels from there. However, for now we want to hold back a bit longer just to see hoe this plays out and whether price , maybe, wants to make on more push to the downside. It is worth keeping in mind that, once a tradable low has been put on the chart, we will be looking for an very far reaching move to the upside that will take price to 450 and even possibly 500 during the first quarter of 2017. That would be some 405 to 70% higher than what we are looking at now and can be classified as a 'massive increase'. Having said so, we will have to take this one step at the time and will need to identify the tradable bottom first.
CBOT:ZCZ2016
by Remko
CBoT corn wrong again and back to neutral for nowCorn: Price took a 5% beating during the past week and has therefore principally negated our bull scenario that we had put on the chart last week. Still, we see that the bottoming out is imminent although the confirmation of same has not yet been delivered and price is close to its contract low of Aug 12 at 322.50 which is likely going to be taken out during the coming week. We are taking a step back for a breather on this chart and we are now looking, again, for a bottom to form on very short term and keep the 310/300 region for that on our mind.
CBOT:ZCZ2016
by Remko
CBoT corn is a long playUpdate for CORN Z16: During last weekend we were not certain yet on the bottom in the market for this price and we would have liked to see one more swing to the downside. In meantime, however, we identify the candle of last Friday as a 'hammer' that has been confirmed by yesterday's firmer candle. We are looking to the upside from here and call a tradable bottom in the market. There could still come a pull-back of price but as long as price keeps trading above the 320/317 level we keep our view to the upside. If and when price breaks that level we will have to go back to our drawing board and abandon our bull bias.
CBOT:ZCZ2016Long
by Remko
CBoT corn still no green light for a long playCorn: Price basically has been moving sideways during the past 9 sessions although it made a fierce spike to the downside during yesterday's sessions after which price recovered back to its level of apparent comfort of the past 2 weeks. We are anticipating a solid bottom for price and have done so for some weeks now but we currently still feel uncertain to call for same bottom. We want to have one more week of 'wait-and-see' attitude on this one after which we will try to establish a renewed judgement. It could be that we will have to conclude and call for a bottom during the coming trading week in which case we will come with an update.
CBOT:ZCZ2016
by Remko
Positive divergences again. Will it work for a bottom this time?Weekly: - Ichimoku has a bearish bias, but despite the recent selloff, the averages (Kijun and Kumo) are still dlat, as the rally in May-June had same weight! This means mkt got oversold as Price is very far below equilibrium. Maybe it sounds funny, but this market still has to be considered as a RANGE. The range is very wide, with 320 possible bottom, 375-380 equilibrium mid, and 425 top. - Heikin-Ashi is still bearish, but haDelta has been picking up from extreme low. Price made new lows towards 320 resistance, so this means some positive divergence. haDelta need to climb over zero to fade heavy bearish price action. - EWO is bearish. MACD is bearish biased, but signal line is still above zero, and histogram seems to start bottom out. (very early and weak positive signal) Daily: - Ichimoku setup is bearish - Price pattern makes a possible bullish wedge - Heikin-Ashi gives early bullish signal: haDelta is testing zero, it has built remarkable positive divergence. Candle may turn bullish today, but first real key reversal level is 329! - EWO is bearish, but has been slowly building some bullish divergence too. Strategy: Get ready to open 0,5 unit swing long. Initial tgt can be 350 +/-. Note: I will show 4H Ichimoku later on Twitter from my firm trading system. 4H Kijun now is 326,25 and forward Kumo top (Senkou B) is 329.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Kumowizard
1
Corn - Bottom in place or expected very soonCorn is tracing out a major complex correction in wave B. This correction began way back in late September 2014 and has unfolded as a zig-zag from the 2014 low at 318 to 443 as wave W and has been followed a zig-zag decline in wave X from 443 to a low currently seen at 319. The X-wave could be complete and if this is the case, then a break above short term important resistance at 335 soon will be seen for a long term rally back to at least 443 and likely even higher towards 519. As long as short term important resistance at 335 is able to protect the upside, we must allow for a final decline closer to 310, but it's only a question of time before the low is in place and a new rally begins
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by EWS