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MZS1! trade ideas

January Soybeans - DailyJanuary Soybeans - Daily: The January contract shows a different picture than the continuous. Jan beans did break above the trend line and 24% retracement, but fell short of the 38% target. The cloud resistance stopped beans at 12.89. The move below the trend line is concerning. There is a Harmonic Pattern potential for a reversal at 11.93-11.81. We need a couple of daily closes above the trend line and the red kijun line currently at 12.30 to keep this from continuing bearish. A break out above the trend line, the cloud, and 24% retracement could excite the bulls for strong gains. **Again this is volatile, Use options to help make decisions if needed…
CBOT:ZSF2022
by mtb1980
Soybeans Weekly continuous chartSoybean – Weekly Cont: Soybeans struggled to get weekly closes inside the cloud and now working to break below the blue Tenkan line. A High to Low cycle needs to see a break above the trend line and above the 24% retracement to move out of bearish territory. The failure below 12.96 suggests we are not bullish. A weekly close below 12.30 targets the 11.81 lo. **Caution, many times a failure to move above the 24% target suggests a new low. 11.67, 11.52 and 11.37 would be targets below with 11.14 the primary target. We need a weekly close above 12.30 and a recovery soon back into the cloud with price action above 12.96 to negate the bear.
CBOT:ZS1!
by mtb1980
Longterm Soybean Market structureCurrent Market Structure: **(Like Corn) Sensitive, with extreme bandwidth** The current Domestic and World Supply & Demand numbers paired with recent inflationary threats support a price base range (IMO) from 10.00 to 12.00. Currently risk has been to the upside and inflationary threats elevated, keeping beans elevated as well. There are to many variables that affect the fundamental picture, expect volatile markets untill the Market structure becomes more defineable. Resistance area from 12.75 to 14.00 and then 16.00 area. **12.75 to 14.00 is an area that some pricing and protection should be encouraged Support area is 11.80 to 11.40. Further Risk is 10.00 – 9.00.
CBOT:ZS1!
by mtb1980
Soybeans: Close to a buy signal once again...The last time we had a perfect storm situation to buy grains, we had a monster rally in both corn and beans. We are now in a similar situation, with the recent surge in Nat Gas affecting fertilizer prices. Weather in Brazil is problematic and China is struggling to produce grains locally...We are once again nearing a situation where reward to risk for buying into grains is tremendous. I'm long Corn futures already for a couple days and waiting for the daily chart to trigger a technical buy signal in Nov Beans to go long as well. The last weekly signal expires by next week, as a failure, price hit really oversold levels and reached monthly support (see green shaded area). Implications are a retest of the weekly down trend mode (as shown by the arrow on chart), at least, which can then evolve into a new weekly uptrend, once the daily trend turns up. And potentially trigger a new monthly signal similar to the one we had before...This is an interesting juncture to enter long term positions in grain futures. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by IvanLabrie
1
Soybean Bollinger Band SqueezeThree squeezes are noted on the chart with the current one having a yet-to-be-determined resolution. If it plays out according to theory (source: John Bollinger book "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands"), the price action will begin a strong move either up or down. Based on the descending triangle-like nature of the current formation, and the bearish readings on the MACD, I'm watching for a price break to the downside. If it breaks to the upside, I'll be bewildered. The price bar coloration is based on the MACD Hybrid BSH which is a script I made and is available for anyone to use. The colorization logic is explained in the script. Basically it interprets whether the standard MACD is bullish, bearish, or neutral. I'm watching for a red signal which would be triggered by the MACD crossing to the underside of the signal line again. I'm setting an alert to 1240'0.
CBOT:ZSX2021Short
by Skipper86
2
Soybeans US Dollar: Usually trends lower into major China export programs. Trends higher after export program concludes. Some resistance ahead. A move lower would help grain exports…. COT: Commercial Net (green) is tipping lower, about neutral. Selling by farmer to commercial met by equal buying of end users. Commercial Shorts (yellow) recently adding to shorts, but pace is far behind last year. Last year the farmer sold out at harvest, leaving the Cooperatives heavily short and the funds long. Leaving the end users open to upside risk…. Commercial Longs have been adding, locking in the high crush margins. Funds are exiting their longs **These indicators lag behind change in trends. Currently using this data as an observation as it is too early to give a signal if low is in. A lower move nearby doesn’t appear to have staying power for a complete season….
CBOT:ZS1!
by mtb1980
Novembe21 SoybeansNovember21 Soybeans - Daily: Beans have been trading lower, stuck inside a down trending channel. If the trend remains intact next week, support would be offered from 12.09 to 11.84. A hard break below the current trend would target the lower line. Nearby resistance would be the blue Tenkan line at 12.62 and then the red Kijun line at 12.69. Beans have failed to push above either line since mid-July. I will look at reestablishing targets above when we get a daily close above either the red or blue line…
CBOT:ZSX2021
by mtb1980
Broadening Pattern in Soybean Futures with a Target of 1440Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour Chart. Soybean Futures is experiencing a broadening pattern in the respective timeframe. This pattern comes with increased volatility as the trendlines are expanding outward. It is projected that the commodity will rally towards 1440, around the sighting of a gap lower. An indicative stop loss is set at around 1325, a little below the support trend line. Technical Indicators There has been a bullish crossover on the short (25-MA) and medium (75-MA) fractal moving averages. Soybean futures are also above the respective MAs. The RSI is above the 50 level with the KST having a positive Crossover. These are all bullish indicators for the commodity. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market. Stop loss will be set around the 1325 price level and a target of 1440. This produces a risk-reward ratio of 2.46. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in Soybean futures.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Ceddy86