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MZS1! trade ideas

cbot soybeans weeklyThe weekly continuation chart shows a very interesting picture with a long term resistance trend line that has its start at around 1765 in September 2012 when the bear market started and that descends via the 1500/1530 region during April/June 2014 to the 1185 level during June 2016. This line is significant because of the long period of time that is exists although the amount of times that it actually offered resistance to price is rather limited. There is a shorter resistance trend line that starts in June 2016 at 1185 and that leads to the 1170 level in January and February 2017. Between these two lines we have coloured a red triangle which is representing a strong resistance to price and which is found between, roughly, 1060 and 1085 during the coming week and of which the values gradually decline. The supportive forces on the chart are found in a trend line (displayed bold and in dash) that starts at around 855 during late February 2016 and leads up via the 935 level during September/October 2016. There is a shorter supportive trend line that starts at 935 in September 2016 and goes up via 990 during January 2017 and 1015 during last week. Between these two supportive lines we have coloured a green triangle which is representing a strong support to price and which is found between, roughly, 1000 and 1020 during the coming week. Hence, price currently finds itself between the proverbial ‘rock and a hard place’ and has to break either the, roughly 1070 resistance and the, roughly, 1015 support. We expect price to bounce a bit further between the two during the coming 1 to 2 weeks after which the pressure will have become too high which will result in a volatile outbreak either way. Taking the daily chart as well as the EW counting (not displayed) into account we have a slight preference for a solid move to the upside from here although we will need to wait for a confirmation from price after it broke through its resistance convincingly.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Remko
CBoT soybeansThe daily MAY17 chart shows that price of the May contract has been gradually moving up within the parallel lines of an ascending price channel that started during July/August 2016 and which took price up with the relevant supports and resistances. This chart clearly shows that price is moving in a short term uptrend with a long term downtrend. In other words: price is making a corrective move up within its long term bear move. With all the supportive spots on the lower boundary line of the price channel we have to assume that price will make a move up from here, same unless the contrary is proven. The EW count (not included in the chart) suggests that a wave 2 of (3) is complete and that we are now in a wave 3 of (3) which should take price initially to the upper boundary of the ascending price channel. We need to see confirmation of that during the coming week by price breaking the 1056 level to the upside after which we need to see the 1075 level broken to the upside so price still has quite some work to do before we can be certain of a solid move to the upside indeed but the picture favours the upside over the downside. A break below 1001 (marked with a green 1) would make us decide to abandon the favourable odds for a move to the upside. After price has broken the 1056 resistance to the upside we will trail our pivotal support to 1017 (marked with a green 2) and after price has broken the 1075 to the upside we will trail our pivotal support to 1028 (marked with a green 3).
CBOT:ZSK2017Long
by Remko
Soybeans Bullish Gartley PatternSoybeans bullish Gartley was adjusted up after making a top on Monday. Higher price was rejected Wednesday. How far this falls is conducive on Soybean sales and the crop being taken off in South America. 1036 would be a good area. Open Interest is rising supporting fall. "Brazil is harvesting a big crop but rain the next few days could slow that process. USDA expects a 104.1 million metric ton harvest there, but private forecasts are larger with some at 105 million."
CBOT:ZSK2017Short
by hopscotch
CBoT soybeansSoybeans: We have been calling a bottom in the market about a moth ago and were looking for an decisive advance in price from the 1040/1020 level. However, price has not made the advance but dropped further instead. The pivotal support at 984 has not been broken thus far but the sideways pattern that price has developed during the past 2 weeks does not give us any confidence that the upswing is imminent now. In fact, price has been making lower lows every week during the past month which is a serious indication that more lows are ahead of us before the market will trade up again. At this stage we can even not exclude a possible bear scenario from here with a further 10% loss of value and a tradable low during next month only. The market is most likely to post lower values during the coming 1 or 2 weeks after which we will see whether we still can look for a tradable low or whether we should hold back until mid February. If and when price breaks the 1028 resistance mark we can start thinking about a bull scenario again but for now we want to sideline.
CBOT:ZSH2017
by Remko