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Soybean Mini Futures

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CBoT soybeans short play with a tight stopSoybeans: Price opened the week with a gap down and lost some 10% of its value in just three sessions after which Friday's session corrected same a bit so that the week ended with a net loss of 7% after breaking Thursday's low. We keep our bias unchanged to a bit more downside from here and will start looking for a reverse from the 1000 region. Traders who entertained a short play on last week's opening put their stops at entry level or lower.
CBOT:ZSX2016Short
by Remko
Soybeans CBoT short playSoybeans: Price made a solid move up during the week and traded back up to the lower line of the previous price channel. Our initial short term bias with 10.00 as target remains unchanged. However, price traded a bit higher than what we would have liked to see which could be an indication that price wants to trade up even higher to test its previous hight at 11.8625 but we are not too certain that that will happen indeed. As far as we can see there are three options from here and now: 1) do nothing, 2) take a short swing with a full position and risk a 4.3% rally against the position before the stop is hit or 3) enter a short play at the opening with just half a position and keep option open to either let it stop out at a 4.3% loss, add to it at higher level, let it play in case the decline materializes next week.
CBOT:ZSX2016Short
by Remko
Soybeans CBoT: missed the short play opportunity and now waitingSoybeans: Price did not bounce on the lower line of the ascending price channel as we expected and broke through its support to the down side. Price tested same (now former) supportive line which has now become resistance (although we keep it drawn in green for now) during Thursday's session and traded impulsively lower during Friday's session. Price has completed its wave (3) up and is now performing a corrective wave (4) with probably a target of 1025/975 from where we favor price to bounce back up to initiate and complete its wave (5) with higher highs towards the end of the year. We have missed the opportunity to entertain a short play simply because of the initial stop-loss level at 1160 which would be some 7.5% above the current price and which would be too costly. If and when price would correct up to 1125/1140 during the coming week traders can still consider a short play with stop at 1160 (which would be an acceptable 2%). Other than that we will have to wait for the next opportunity which will be a long play at lower levels.
CBOT:ZSX2016
by Remko
Soybeans almost ready for a short playSoybeans: Price reached our target some time ago already and is performing an overshoot which is nothing unusual as it is just not possible to predict exactly where the waves will end. The EW principle gives us a complete count but that doesn't mean that a top is on the chart indeed already. Taking a position just on basis of the fact that you can see the EW count seemingly completed is too much of a gamble which we avoid at all times. The broadening wedge that we have drawn in the chart is still intact and price has continued to close within the boundaries of same wedge although price has been trading outside of same as well. This pattern is a typical indicator that the end of the trend is imminent but is also no guarantee that a reverse is in place here and now. Fridays' shape of the candle is another indication the the reverse could be there with the spike up and the close back down, leaving a candle with a very long topping tail which tells us that the bulls ran out of air. All together serious indications that a reverse is in the making which drives us to the edge to move and entertain a short play. But for now we keep our powder dry and wait for a confirmation in the price move. This is not yet the time and level to go short but it certainly is not the time and place to go long either. Patience and discipline is the name of the game now.. Ideally, price would now start trading down, then break its support at the 1125/1135 region, then bounce back up a bit from the lower boundary of the broadening wedge, then test back the 1125/1135 support/resistance zone and reverse back down again for a trade down of some 10%. The test back would then be our hotspot to entertain a short play.
CBOT:ZSN2016
by Remko
Soybeans CBoT target reached and position squareSoybeans: Price has reached our target during the past week and made an impulsive overshoot to even higher levels. Price is also forming a 'ascending broadening wedge' which is a reversal pattern. We believe that price is at or close to the end of its current move up and that it will reverse in a corrective move down of 10-15% soon. The candle of last Friday has a long upper shadow and a narrow real body at the lower end of the candle which could be the bode that the reversal is imminent. At the same time price made a new high which indicates that it wants to go even higher. Our bias is neutral from here until we see a clear sign that the top is in the market indeed and only after that we will start looking for a possible trade to entertain. In case that we miss the next move we will patiently wait until we feel comfortable for the wave after the next.
CBOT:ZSN2016
by Remko
Soybeans showed the direction first in agri spaceWeekly: - Ichimoku setup is bullish, with some resistances ard 1100 and 1150! Chikou also hits past thick Kumo cloud. - Heikin-Ashi has been extremely powerful for 8-10 weeky, but now haDelta shows some loss of extreme momentum. - Pull back to 1000+ can happen... if we are lucky... as there for sure we'll have t look for long entry again! Daily: - Wonderful trend in Ichimoku. Price has been clearly above Kijun Sen since start of March! - Heikin-Ashi setup has bullish bias, but candle pattern and haDelta may tell us the story of a possible local top building here. Do not short this market! No top hunting! We rather have to watch for buy signals ard 1000-1025 support zone.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Kumowizard
Soybeans CBoT N16Soybeans: Nothing much changed from our picture of one week ago: price is still in an impulsive move up and has made a 3-day corrective move down after the very strong soar of early last week. The pattern of the corrective move down during the past 3 trading suggests that there is more room to the upside. The soar of May 10 took the price from, roughly, the 1030 level to, roughly, the 1080 level. We favor a continuation of the move up from here starting Monday to, roughly, the 1020 zone with a possible overshoot.
CBOT:ZSN2016Long
by Remko
Soybeans Long PlayPrice did not make the corrective move down to 975 during last week as was preferred by us but rather traded a sideways pattern between, roughly 1010 and 1050. It doesn't change our general expectation of the development of this price but we need to adjust our preferred path a bit. We take our view to the upside from here and have a bias with 1100 as target which we would like to see reached latest by the end of May. If price breaks the 1000 level, however, we will have to go back to the drawing board again and start considering the correction down after all. For now we are in for a 5% swing up from current levels.
CBOT:ZSN2016Long
by Remko