Wheat futures..Getting the timing right when attempting to trade alongside the commercial hedgers considered the smart money is no easy task, to say the least. When they are heavily short it can still take weeks for that asset to start falling in price and of course they do make mistakes, and vice versa when long.
And so assume nothing..Use stops !!
XW1! trade ideas
Wheat looks set to break higherLooking at wheat zw1! across three charts (renko 10pt, 5pt, and 1pt), it looks like they have achieved some type of confluence and are staged to break higher.
Entry setup would have been on the 1pt chart on the 27th with the second test of the 100EMA. However, I'm looking to enter long based on how market opens this coming week.
Targets are 510 and 550 on the zw1! chart. Actual entry will be with the e-mini July Wheat.
On TV, I track WHEATUSD for the real-time data feed.
Short Wheat ZW1!US Wheat (Chicago) hit the upper line of the triangle I draw in the weekly chart. This line - for now - hold and wheat did not move higher.
Furthermore, volume did not really increased during the upmove of the last two to three days. This is even more striking in the weekly chart, where volume decreased in the last three weeks while wheat moved up.
This is a strong signal for falling prices.
On the fundamental side:
The US Dollar Index broke out of its triangle and is about to move higher in the next couple of weeks.
The Ruble devalued further against the US Dollar Index.
Both are important reasons for falling US Wheat prices.
But: Spring wheat seedings are behind - in the US and Russia (this is especially important for Russia). This might have a strong effect on Chicago Wheat. If Wheat moves above the upper triangle line / breaks out, then this is the reason.
Therefore, a close stop should be put in place a little bit above the (blue) uppper triangle line.
The next support line is at around 478.