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XW1! trade ideas

Indecision, inverse divergence, some positive biasWheat market has been struggling to find direction since October. Is it just another consolidation of the long term beari market, or can it be some kind of bottom building? Weekly: - Major beartish trend since the July/2012 peak. Ichimoku has been bearish since 2013. - Market has been consolidatig for almost 4 months now. No lower low since Aug/2016. - Heikin-Ashi signal is neutral, shows indecision. haDelta crosses above SMA3 but the indicator is stuck at zero. haDelta+ points down, but has no momentum - MACD is below zero, but no bearish cross right now. - EWO is bearish, but value ticks higher. - Bearish supports are: 440 and 455. A weekly close above 455 would open space for a strategic bull market. Daily: - Ichimoku is neutral, all averages are flat arund 410 level, and Kumo ahead is thin. This means market has not been trending for 52+26 = 78 days. - Heikin-Ashi has some bullish bias now. 7-8th/Dec market failed to continue bearish. After a doji candle we have the second green candle today (with somehow less convincing lower high -> bit of momentum loss). haDelta+ is above zero and points up. - MACD showed/shows something interesting too: looks like an inverse negative divergence, which means that MACD made a lower low, while price did not. This is often an early bullish signal. Let's see if MACD crosses up, to confirm more bullish force - EWO is neutral. While the big picture is still neutral, in short term bearis may step back and bulls may get stronger. With a close above 416 market could retest 440-455 strong supp/res zone. I am playing the long side (from 407.50), without any serious leverage, and with a relatively tight stop.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Kumowizard
Real buy at 419 breakout.Weekly: - No real change in big picture since last post, except that Heikin-Ashi shows indecision again. - MACD still suggests sideaway/corrective move ahead Daily: - As expected, first key resistance ard 425 blocked buyers. After two days of hesitation price fell back sharply, even closed below Kijun Sen. - However bearish price action faded yesterday. No lower low below Kumo cloud. - Heikin-Ashi gives a buy signal again, but Ichimoku is still neutral: everything is located in a thin flat Kumo. - EWO keeps its bullish bias I think it is a minor buy with 399 stop, have some chance for further bullish improvement. Real size buying recommended only if breakout happens above 419!
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Kumowizard
CBoT wheat continuous long playWheat: Price made an almost 2% corrective move down during the past week after its strong 5% swing up of the week before that. We have put a first supportive level at 413 in the chart which was tested twice during the past week and which we would not like to see broken on basis of EOD. We should, however, not be stunned if same support will be penetrated during Monday's and/or Tuesday's trading sessions and even a close below same supportive level will not change our bull scenario as long as our pivotal support at 395 remains unbroken. The upper ascending trend line has been broken to the upside and is now being tested back as support which we expect to hold with, as mentioned before, a possible penetration during one of the sessions early in the week. Our bottom line outlook is to the upside with significantly higher prices ahead.
CBOT:ZWZ2016Long
by Remko
1
Wheat: We can buy on a breakout of September 22nd's highThis setup should yield a nice up move here, if we see a breakout of this range. We could enter prematurely, risking a drop under today's low, if the day turns up on Monday as well, but that would be riskier, so if you do it, only take a smaller risk position, like 0.25% exposure. Today's action accross the board points to a major turning point in the markets, so don't miss out on opportunities like this. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by IvanLabrie
Wheat may have hit its pullbackLooking at 30M chart, it's possible that wheat has made its pullback. The TSI could be finding support at 0 and RSI on 40. Based on next open and if these indicators move up off this support may try a dec wheat call. Looking at the daily chart, the RSI and TSI look bullish and the ADX with +DMI looks like it could be setting up a change in dominance from down trend. Daily looks like it hit some resistance at the 23.6% retrace area between the 6/8 high and 8/31 low. I think that price will move up to challenge other areas of retrace as noted on daily chart.
CBOT:ZWZ2016Long
by mxb1961
CBoT wheat has a confirmed bottom and a long play is validWheat: This price chart is showing us TA straight from the text books with an, almost violent, test back down of the support, a repeated and strong knock on the door of resistance at 415 after, eventually, price broke up through its resistance during Friday's session. The long topping tail of Friday's candle is probably a sign that bulls needed a bit of breath after their rally run of Thursday and Friday but it could also be the bode of a bull trap so caution is to be added to caution and disciplined stops have to placed solidly and remain untouched (except for trailing up, obviously). Actually, quite an exciting development of this price during the past week with a confirmation of our call for a bottom and much more upward potential for the future. Our first target for this price is 450/460 for the end of the coming week or, possibly, the week after. Our pivotal support level is now 395 and if price would break that low we will have to redo our homework and go back to our drawing board. It is always a good policy to trail up your stop ( never down - in bull move that is) and it is worth remembering that taking profit on (a part of) your position won't make you any poorer.
CBOT:ZWZ2016Long
by Remko
Wheat may be ready to begin a new trend upWheat, on an 8H chart, has broken through key short term resistance last week. Beginning 9/12, ADX had signaled a period of price consolidation which has lasted until 10/13 when price broke through resistance. This price action and ADX consolidation is reflected on the daily chart too. It is possible that price may have more upside potential before a pullback happens and an entry long could be attempted The weekly chart, though it has not broken out of resistance or have had it's TSI and RSI turn positive, these two indicators may be showing some key divergences looking at the 2014/09/22 low and recent 2016/08/29 low. Should these areas of divergence hold, i'm looking for the upper line of resistance to be challenged. A key thing to watch on the weekly ADX is if price does move up does the +DMI cross up over the -DMI and the ADX move up above 20. There are a couple of scenarios that can play out should this happen which include either 1) a new bull trend as upper resistance breaks or 2) a drop off of the upper resistance with the ADX above 20 and the -DMI/+DMI swap signaling a change in dominance. Q: Is this the beginning of an up trend or just another spike on weekly to touch upper resistance? Hard to tell for now and weekly will hold answer over next couple of months. For now , I'm looking to enter long with dec wheat call but waiting to see if price pulls back first. Ideally, on the 8H chart, the +DMI and -DMI converge toward each other briefly with price pulling back to moving averages.
CBOT:ZWZ2016
by mxb1961
1
Not yet a big move, but impressive given USD strength- As price has been moving sideaway, Ichimoku is turning a bit more neutral from bearish - Trading in a range, with some short term minor bullish bias now - Improvements: candle may finally close above Kijun Sen, while haOscillator moves higher above delta. Chikou Span crosses above past candles (weak bullish Chikou/price cross), still needs some momentum to launch it into open space - EWO is red, slowly ticks higher. - Key levels: 405+ and 418+. In case buyers gain momentum and break these levels, first target comes as 445. Strategy: maximum half size long is recommended until further bullish signals. Be careful with longs, as this is pretty much a bottom fishing idea for now.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Kumowizard