$WHEAT - "La Niña" - The Final Countdown... very strong downward trend. I hope that the severe winter change the trend on the chart.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
XW1! trade ideas
OversoldIt can be sold however , we are in lower end of range and it's possible sharp Rallies. Sooo , wait for better time to come before actually trade this asset.
Real buy at 419 breakout.Weekly:
- No real change in big picture since last post, except that Heikin-Ashi shows indecision again.
- MACD still suggests sideaway/corrective move ahead
Daily:
- As expected, first key resistance ard 425 blocked buyers. After two days of hesitation price fell back sharply, even closed below Kijun Sen.
- However bearish price action faded yesterday. No lower low below Kumo cloud.
- Heikin-Ashi gives a buy signal again, but Ichimoku is still neutral: everything is located in a thin flat Kumo.
- EWO keeps its bullish bias
I think it is a minor buy with 399 stop, have some chance for further bullish improvement. Real size buying recommended only if breakout happens above 419!
CBoT wheat continuous long playWheat:
Price made an almost 2% corrective move down during the past week after its strong 5% swing up of the week before that.
We have put a first supportive level at 413 in the chart which was tested twice during the past week and which we would not like to see broken on basis of EOD. We should, however, not be stunned if same support will be penetrated during Monday's and/or Tuesday's trading sessions and even a close below same supportive level will not change our bull scenario as long as our pivotal support at 395 remains unbroken.
The upper ascending trend line has been broken to the upside and is now being tested back as support which we expect to hold with, as mentioned before, a possible penetration during one of the sessions early in the week.
Our bottom line outlook is to the upside with significantly higher prices ahead.
Wheat: We can buy on a breakout of September 22nd's highThis setup should yield a nice up move here, if we see a breakout of this range.
We could enter prematurely, risking a drop under today's low, if the day turns up on Monday as well, but that would be riskier, so if you do it, only take a smaller risk position, like 0.25% exposure.
Today's action accross the board points to a major turning point in the markets, so don't miss out on opportunities like this.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Wheat may have hit its pullbackLooking at 30M chart, it's possible that wheat has made its pullback. The TSI could be finding support at 0 and RSI on 40. Based on next open and if these indicators move up off this support may try a dec wheat call.
Looking at the daily chart, the RSI and TSI look bullish and the ADX with +DMI looks like it could be setting up a change in dominance from down trend.
Daily looks like it hit some resistance at the 23.6% retrace area between the 6/8 high and 8/31 low. I think that price will move up to challenge other areas of retrace as noted on daily chart.
CBoT wheat has a confirmed bottom and a long play is validWheat:
This price chart is showing us TA straight from the text books with an, almost violent, test back down of the support, a repeated and strong knock on the door of resistance at 415 after, eventually, price broke up through its resistance during Friday's session. The long topping tail of Friday's candle is probably a sign that bulls needed a bit of breath after their rally run of Thursday and Friday but it could also be the bode of a bull trap so caution is to be added to caution and disciplined stops have to placed solidly and remain untouched (except for trailing up, obviously). Actually, quite an exciting development of this price during the past week with a confirmation of our call for a bottom and much more upward potential for the future.
Our first target for this price is 450/460 for the end of the coming week or, possibly, the week after.
Our pivotal support level is now 395 and if price would break that low we will have to redo our homework and go back to our drawing board. It is always a good policy to trail up your stop ( never down - in bull move that is) and it is worth remembering that taking profit on (a part of) your position won't make you any poorer.
Wheat may be ready to begin a new trend upWheat, on an 8H chart, has broken through key short term resistance last week. Beginning 9/12, ADX had signaled a period of price consolidation which has lasted until 10/13 when price broke through resistance.
This price action and ADX consolidation is reflected on the daily chart too. It is possible that price may have more upside potential before a pullback happens and an entry long could be attempted
The weekly chart, though it has not broken out of resistance or have had it's TSI and RSI turn positive, these two indicators may be showing some key divergences looking at the 2014/09/22 low and recent 2016/08/29 low. Should these areas of divergence hold, i'm looking for the upper line of resistance to be challenged. A key thing to watch on the weekly ADX is if price does move up does the +DMI cross up over the -DMI and the ADX move up above 20. There are a couple of scenarios that can play out should this happen which include either 1) a new bull trend as upper resistance breaks or 2) a drop off of the upper resistance with the ADX above 20 and the -DMI/+DMI swap signaling a change in dominance.
Q: Is this the beginning of an up trend or just another spike on weekly to touch upper resistance? Hard to tell for now and weekly will hold answer over next couple of months.
For now , I'm looking to enter long with dec wheat call but waiting to see if price pulls back first. Ideally, on the 8H chart, the +DMI and -DMI converge toward each other briefly with price pulling back to moving averages.
Wheat Oct'16 - decision timeConsolidating on long term support line 386 or 412. Will see what unfolds. Would look to buy into 393 level and below.
WHEAT - another pullback from SMAThere's a pullback from the SMA, so wave of 5 is likely going to be continued
Not yet a big move, but impressive given USD strength- As price has been moving sideaway, Ichimoku is turning a bit more neutral from bearish
- Trading in a range, with some short term minor bullish bias now
- Improvements: candle may finally close above Kijun Sen, while haOscillator moves higher above delta. Chikou Span crosses above past candles (weak bullish Chikou/price cross), still needs some momentum to launch it into open space
- EWO is red, slowly ticks higher.
- Key levels: 405+ and 418+. In case buyers gain momentum and break these levels, first target comes as 445.
Strategy: maximum half size long is recommended until further bullish signals. Be careful with longs, as this is pretty much a bottom fishing idea for now.
CBoT wheat has put a long term bottom on the chart and is a longWheat:
We have called for a bottom on this chart during the past week when, during Wednesday's session, price drew a 'double key reversal' on the chart which was an 'engulfing bullish' candle as well and which both are quite powerful reversal patterns. Much to our dissatisfaction we saw price make a strong pull back during the Thursday session but this could be seen as a test back of the support as well, especially since both Thursday and Friday drew higher lows on the chart despite the strong pullback.
We keep our call for a bottom in this market unless we see the pivotal support at 390 broken in which case we will have to reconsider our bull case scenario for now. Still, we would like to see a decisive break of the 415 level to the upside as reconfirmation of our call for a long term tradable bottom in this market. We consider price to be in 'no-man's land' between the 2 essential values of 390 on the downside and 415 on the upside.
CBoT wheat still waiting for the bottomWheat:
Nothing much happened during the past week and price has mostly been moving sideways during the week with exception for Friday when price took out its most recent lows at 395/393 after which it recovered and made a very strong 3% rally from its LOD.
We still believe that price needs to make one more impulsive move to the downside and we keep our bear bias unchanged. Our bear scenario goes straight into the waste bin if price breaks 411 to the upside.
WHEAT - new low is comingWave of 5 is likely going to be continued, so there's an opportunity to have a hew low in the short term
Bear market with strong positive divergences and a bullish wedgeWheat chart is maybe even more interesting than Corn.
Weekly:
- Very long term bearish trend, and maybe a bearish wedge too.
- Ichimoku is bearish, but price is far below Kijun and Senkou-B, where we have longer term equilibrium at 455
- MACD lines are converging, positive divergence has been built for more than two months in histogram!
- Heikin-Ashi signal is slightly bearish, rather a noise, as price can't make a subst. lower low. What's more, it looks like haDelta and haOscillator have developed quite some bullish divergence too.
By weekly picture I see limited downside, and increasing chance of a local bottom being established.
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is bearish until price is below Kijun Sen. But Kijun is catching down quickly. Key level is 411, marked by Kijun and trendline
- Mixed price action in 393-411 range, with no lower low, no higher high either.
Heikin-Ashi signal is bullish today, but it has been quite mixed recently.
- EWO is building a positive divergence. This is what makes me think, there is higher chance to see a break on the upper side.
- ATR (volatility) is extremely low here too.
ZW1! Bears still holding.Traders,
We have a nice oppertunnity on Wheat today. Everything is in the chart.
Good luck!
best regards,
