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YM1! trade ideas

YM Friday Gameplan Bullish/Range Bound Top of Rising WedgeToday closed at the end of the session with a bearish engulfment and a pin bar wicking into the top 50% of said engulfment. I am seeing the 21ema start to flatten out and possibly roll over with massive space between the 21ema and the 200sma. Friday I think will be a choppy/range with a slight bullish tint to maybe take out Thursday's high and make another hit at the top of the rising wedge. I will have to see tomorrow morning how price behaves. I am only making a rough guess as I tend to not like to have biases when day trading. I just trade setups. Like today, I have a bearish long term position down to 24,000 or -37% but I still daytraded a bullish pullback setup This was my only trade Thursday I was wrong on the 0.85 fib but as I don't trade the first hour, I just sat and watched it plow right through it. I took the pullback trade a full 3 Hours and 50 Minutes after the NY open. I have learned the hard way that me personally, I get destroyed in the first hour. It is like crossing the freeway and getting hit by a semi.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
Understanding Momentum to filter out the Best SetupsIn the video I discuss how I analyse momentum using MACDs and the 5min and 1min charts when daytrading. Knowing these key concepts helps me filter out the best setups to get on the right side of the market and in the right trading zones. The basic concepts discussed are : - Momentum - Price Action - Candle Analysis - Multi-timeframe Analysis ** If you like the content then take a look at the profile to get more ideas and learning material ** ** Any Comments and likes are greatly appreciated **
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CBOT_MINI:YM1!Education
by TradeTheStructure
5
YM Dow Head And Shoulders Pattern Target 1.25X At 24,250Now that the top is in, the Daily 200sma will start to roll over and start a downward trend. The left shoulder is complete The head is complete Now we are waiting for the right shoulder to form and to complete with the neckline I am expecting the right shoulder to rally back up to the 0.85 fib level and fail. My target is the 1.25 times range expansion at 24,250 Using the 3 month chart, this is what I am expecting for the next 20 years going forward I am expecting a 36-40% sell off into the rising monthly 200sma and the 3rd channel line. The low I am expecting will be June 2026 for roughly 18 months of a bear market Fret not, as after the sell off, I am expecting about 110% rally back up to 44,000 at the end of 2029 After that 3 year rally up to 44,000, I am then expecting a 58% sell off into the channel bottom and the rising 3 month 200sma at 18,000-20,000 at the start of 2029-2032 After that 58% sell off, I firmly believe that is the low and price will start a new bull trend with at least a 290% rally up to 72,000 by 2045 Everybody is so fine tuned to what is happening within this small bear wedge in 2023-2024 that they are not looking at the bigger picture 20 years from now. We are in a secular bear market and will have major ups and downs in a range until we breakout of this.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
1
YM1 US30 - SMART MONEY BEARS? 📈💥 DOW JONES ICT SET UP 4H As the bears stormed into the market following the release of the CPI data on the February, 13th of 2024, the impact was felt across the board. The surge in bullish sentiment propelled the market late afternoon New York session, causing a noticeable shift in momentum. Investors and traders alike found themselves navigating the fluctuations with keen interest. Looking ahead, the question arises - will we maintain levels above 38,000 on the Dow Jones US30 index? With substantial support levels and demand areas present in this region, the scenario seems promising. If the market can hold steady, we may anticipate price consolidating within the range of 38,100 to 38,500. This pivotal juncture will likely witness further market dynamics playing out, offering opportunities for bullish and bearish price action. If we can’t hold we may continue to see sell-side liquidity sweeps towards 4h demand areas!
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by MOTIONCAPITALTRADING
YM Sell Continuation On 4 Hour 21ema Now In ChargeAfter the violent spike down into the 200sma ( Bearish ), the 21ema is now in charge. It is declining so that means to pay attention to only bearish candles as the new trend is down. Any and all bullish candles are to be ignored. The gap between the bodies of the candles and the 200sma tells me they are to return. If price stays in the lower 0.33% or lower third, then expect lower prices. I can also see price go up to the 0.50% level and reversing as well. One of my all time favorite setups is green gets eliminated by red at/near the declining 21ema with a one bar stop. Here is two examples of what I am seeing in today's action.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
YM CPI 4 Hour CPI Swing Trade Idea 700 ticksThe 21ema on the 4 hour is flat Price is pulling back into the flat 21ema Look for a bullish surge off of the flat 21ema Can be aggressive and enter short on the close of the CPI 4 hour bar at 10am EST with the expectation of no follow through Can be conservative with a sell limit at the 50% mark of the bull surge bar. Targeting the demand candle of January 25th Price level: 38,200 160 tick stop 700 tick target Estimated holding time 6-8 days
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
YM - Weekly Frontrunning To Sour Sell StopsOf the three stock indexes; - CME_MINI:ES1! - CME_MINI:NQ1! - CBOT_MINI:YM1! CBOT_MINI:YM1! Looks to be the pair that's frontrunning the sellside narrative as it is the 1st of the three to reverse and reject all-time highs @ 38,992, closing the week as a bearish doji candle whilst CME_MINI:ES1! and CME_MINI:NQ1! close out bullish. Is this a indication for CME_MINI:ES1! & CME_MINI:NQ1! for a potential reversal? Would many of us retail traders expect a sudden shift like that, similar to CBOT_MINI:YM1! ? With a bullish TVC:DXY , more pressure could be placed on CBOT_MINI:YM1! to the downside to attack a DEEP liquidity pool @ 38,212 placed ever so perfectly on the 1-hour timeframe, highlighted in blue. This assumes the 1-hour wednesday bullish fair value gap rejects and gets treated like a inverted FVG. 38,645 will be my first point of call if my bias is to stick like glue. Friday 9th Feb 2024 - 8:00AM bullish shooting star located on the 1-hour timeframe is a MAKE OR BREAK CANDLE. As long as price action trades below 38,840, there's a strong chance we could be in for a sell-off next week. My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTAN
CBOT_MINI:YMH2024Short
by LegendSince
Dow Jones March Futures looks Great to Slide lowerHello Everyone. Forex market seems to be stuck in a mud and we seems to be in a highly manipulative environment. but soon market is going to be normal and we will have alot of setups forming but as of now i have a Dow jones YMH2024 March contract for short.. the Current model is 2022 Model as per inner circle trader concept which is my personal favorite and the most easy one. as per this we can see the Dow has taken out the buystops and given a market structure shift for the downside and market reprised higher in the Entry zone which is generally known as Fair value Gap. so therefore i am expecting price to go lower and target 38490 level. This is a very clean and clear setup which has a higher probability to hit the target. but due to weekends there could be a shift if some news come out. otherwise its good to go
CBOT_MINI:YMH2024Short
by Rizwan-Ali
1 Hour Dow 6 to 1 Sell Set up (600 Point Target)Now that the 200sma is starting to roll over after we had the three push pattern higher AND the false break reversal on Friday, I am looking for a meandering back up into the supply zone for a sell. My only concern is that I don't know what CPI will do. Will it spike up to hit that magical 39,000 number for another false reversal or will it spike down? The 1 Hour 21ema is pointing down and at a slight angle away which tells me a pullback into the 200sma and a bounce. Steep 21ema = trend Rounding 21ema = pullback What ever CPI decides to do, I am still Bearish as this is the top of this entire rally. The 3 push pattern at a top has each high just marginally higher than the last high and the 3rd push high was a peek a boo false break reversal. I believe Dow Jones is the leader in that it is peaking first before Nasdaq and S&P. The S&P is still bullish. The Dow's first rally off of the October Lows was really powerful compared to S&P's piddling attempt.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
YM Gameplan For Remainder Of Year August DumpI believe this is all she wrote on the rally inside of this monthly bearish rising wedge and that the prevailing downtrend will continue as that is the higher timeframe trend. This rally has been a counter trend rally into the main trend. Volatility will pick back up. First will likely sell off to the 200sma Daily, bounce into the trendline and roll over. Once in the green box it will rally back up into supply marked with the other trendline in August. I believe end of August will just create a massive dump slicing through that wedge bottom and dropping 20% in three months. By November we will get a small rally back up into resistance marked by the red rectangle, or the bottom of that October rally. Into the declining 200sma Daily. Prime selling area for another 20% drop. This drop will happen after the new year in 2025. December will end about 31,500 as the close of the year. Finally, October 2025 will be the capitulation dump down into the support zone for another 28% sell off. February 2026 will be the bottom at around 21,500 where upon a massive short squeeze will ensue completely erasing that sell off like nothing happened. A 74% rally in one fell swoop, with the ultimate target back up to 44,500 for 110% rally.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
YM Daily Analysis On the 3rd push up. Bull Market FinishedZoomed in closely on the Daily chart, price is now on its final third push higher into MAJOR,MAJOR Channel resistance with not very much room left to go. I have been saying February 13th as the top and so far it is playing out nicely. I am already short at 38,760 since the near close of yesterday. I am a bit early but not by much. I decided to go with it since I am extremely confident in this trade. From 38,900 down to 21,500. On the weekly, this week is forming a bull hammer up in space, a key sign of a reversal. The tail portion of the bull hammer when up high is fuel for a long squeeze. The target area is the monthly rising 200sma at demand, price area 21,500-23,000
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
Friday YM Dow Jones Possible Bullish DayI don't know what will happen Friday but to me, it looks like it might open up bearish into the rising 21ema only for it to bounce back and rip higher. It seems like a good target will be the top of the channel at around 39,080 This is the hourly chart. On the 5 minute chart, the 200sma is the 1 hour 21ema, so any pullbacks into the 200sma I will be looking to go long. The fact that it didn't close that gap Thursday shows strength
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
This looks like the top is in before the 37% sell off To me it looks like Friday was the top. Monday sold aggressively down, followed by Tuesday a consolidation near the base/lows and a pullback to the 50% mark. This up channel is looking to break soon. I have market two green lines. The first one is the entry short using the daily timeframe. If price eliminates this green daily candle. The second one is my entry, the weekly. If price eliminates that last green weekly candle via an engulfment or pin bar then I am in. The 15 minute 200sma is looking to start rolling over.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
Week 6 Day Trading Gameplan (Range Bound Bullish Bias)Still sticking with the bullish trend on the short term ( 1 Hour ), I will be waiting for pullbacks into my support zones of 1 & 2 areas. The 1 hour's 200sma is flat which tells me range. Whether price works the low or the high first is key. My stops are always 40 ticks and targets are 85 ticks. Last week I only took 3 trades. 2 winners and 1 loser. Looking at the 5 minute chart, the 21ema is pointing straight down and there is distance between the 21ema and the flat 200sma. My Monday play IF set up will be a sell continuation pulling back to the declining 21ema in a bear flag. Ok if it pops above the 21ema by a bit.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
1
My Heavenly Book ( YM ) E-mini Dow Jones ($5) futures are derivative contracts with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index as an underlying asset. These mini futures are electronically traded and give investors exposure to the US stock market through 30 US blue-chip companies, but they represent only a portion ($5) of standard Dow Jones futures, which makes them more accessible. Since these are still futures, traders use them to hedge their stock portfolios against risks that are inevitable in markets.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by BenyaminDaneshvar