Dow Jones Futures CPI Long Trade 5 to 1 PotentialI am long right now with my fill at 40,012. Now that we have broken out, CPI will continue the momentum and I am targeting the next area of liquidity at 40,280. I am using a 50 tick stop and my target is 40,279 for a 5.34 to 1.
I plan on holding through the news because I don't believe price will return any lower and if it does, then I am out and I will regroup.
YM1! trade ideas
Bullish breakout on the menu for Dow futures?Traders should be on alert for a bullish breakout in Dow E-mini futures.
Sitting in a triangle and having found plenty of support on dips towards and below 39400 over recent weeks, the price closed marginally above downtrend resistance on Wednesday, managing to do what it was unable to on the prior three ventures above the level. With RSI and MACD providing bullish signals on momentum, the ducks are lining up for upside.
Should Wednesday’s high of 40067 be taken out, consider buying the break with a stop loss order below the former uptrend for protection. Resistance may be found around 40200 but it’s likely the record high 40358 will be targeted by bulls should we see a breakout. Beyond, a trip into the low 40000s could be on the cards given how long the price has been coiling in the triangle.
Thursday’s US inflation report presents a major risk event that could deliver a bull trap and/or reversal, underlining why a stop needs to be used to limit capital losses from an ugly number. A core reading of 0.25% more is unlikely to go down well for riskier asset classes. Alternatively, a figure below 0.2% will likely be cheered as it would strengthen the case for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates in September.
While the Dow is not a cyclical as it once was, improved prospects for steeper bond curves and a soft economic landing should benefit financials and other economic sensitive sectors.
DS
YM - Daily charting practicestarted on the weekly - grey levels
adapted them to the daily - red color
i left those so we can see price extend beyond the daily to reach the 4hr
4hr- orange levels. were then adapted to the 1hr levels
1hr - yellow level were adapted to a 15min level
15min - turquoise color.
its clutter but its a way to illustrate how price will test a higher timeframe level, and deep dive that level with a wick. fractal patters were created on lower timeframes within the body of the higher timeframe candle. the untested levels or unmitigated FVG or whatever you call them will be tested in this manner.
lets see.
Dow Jones July NFP Range Play 5.25 to 1 Risk RewardI am expecting a spike down at NFP into the range yellow box. I don't know how deep into the box it will go and so I am forced to use a bigger stop to compensate as IF this play is to work then price cannot go below the yellow box.
After the spike down, the trade should immediately be in profit for the explosive short squeeze 450 ticks higher to take out 39,850.
All of these stacked highs are dead giveaways for a short squeeze.
I will be placing my limit buy down in the yellow box at price 39,416
I will be placing my stop loss below the yellow box at price 39,336 for 80 ticks
I will be placing my target at the stacked highs up near 39,850. I will be getting out before then at 39,830. Target 414 ticks
Dow Jones YM Futures Wednesday July 3rd Daytrading Setup LongI am looking for a continuation Long going into the double top at price target 39,844
I don't know where price will stop at during the pullback, either between the top third or the top half.
I will target 39,830 to be conservative and get out before it reverses. I don't know where the top will be.
Tomorrow will be the day before the 4th and so it also could be a chop day, I am not sure.
All I know is that I don't need to know anything to make money.
I will keep this post updated on my Live performance with my wins and losses. I am not afraid to show any of my losses as I know my win rate is 40% and I am quite wrong. I have no ego regarding this because my targets are always 3 or 4 to 1.
YM Short Trade SetupShort Trade Setup:
Entry: Look for a break below the recent consolidation low, around 39,425. A breakdown with increased selling volume could signal further downside.
Stop-Loss: Place the stop-loss just above the consolidation high or a recent resistance level, around 39,560. This minimizes risk in case of a false breakdown.
Target: Set the initial target at the previous support area of around 39,225, with the potential to extend lower if the bearish trend continues.
YM Long Trade SetupLong Trade Setup:
Entry: Look for a break above the recent consolidation high, around 39,560. If the price breaks above this level with strong volume, it could indicate a bullish move.
Stop-Loss: Place the stop-loss slightly below the consolidation low or a recent support level, around 39,425. This helps protect against a false breakout.
Target: Set the initial target at the recent high of around 39,850, with a potential to extend to higher levels if the bullish momentum continues.
Dow Jones Futures Month of July Day Trading Gameplan Now that June has printed, I am looking ahead for my gameplan on July.
Still inside of the 4 hour Bear Flag, I am still bullish on price up until the yellow supply zone box. I am expecting a third hit to the top of the bear flag channel's top.
The Green box is massive support and I am expecting the last two pivot highs to be taken out on the march higher.
IF, my thesis is correct on this long term bull flag monthly pullback, then when price reaches the yellow box, it should continue with the selling, breaking the bear flag and dropping another 3,000 points. That should occur August roughly.
I will do my best to buy pullbacks on the way back up.
My Day Trading stats in June:
17 trades
9 losers
8 winners
47% win rate
Avg win: 274.00
Avg loss: -142.00
Total Gain: 6% +912.50
My goal in July:
45% win rate
8% total gain
Dow Jones Friday Day Trading Buy Set UpThis week is shaping up to be a doji candle that is revolving around the Week's Open price of 39,589.
I believe Friday will continue to be a range type of day that will go lower first then start to trade above Friday's open and another explosive short squeeze up to 39,705 before trading back down and closing near the week's open.
I will be looking for a pullback on top of Friday's Open price of 39,501, which so coincidently happens to be Thursday's Open price as well.
I measured 200 ticks above and below Friday's open as that is 0.50% move both +/-
A range day typically rotates around a price level.
I will use my 50 tick stop and 120-150 tick target if/when that sets up.
I will allow myself two chances Friday. Two losses in a row and I walk away for the day.
I use the 4 hour for direction and the 15 minute for my entry.
Bias: I have a 90% lean towards going long up into yesterday's high/ the mid point of the yellow buy to sell box/ 0.50% move higher. Price target 39,705
Dow Jones Trade Idea (Sell Limit) Bear Flag SetupThis will be my next trade setup. I will forego doing anymore buying inside of this bear flag. I have set my sell limit order at where I think is a good spot. Inside of the golden pocket of the weekly engulfing candle.
Feel free to enter in this same trade, of course using your own money management.
My limit sell
Entry: 40,117
Stop: 40,302 185 ticks
Target: 38,300 1,817 ticks 9.82 risk to reward
Once the bear flag has been broken, only then will I move to break even.
I expect this trade to be a 2-3 week hold
Dow Jones Buy Breakout 4 Hour SetupI just went Long using the 4 hour after the bear pin hammer's body was closed above by the next 4 hour bar, followed by this current 4 hour bar that is creeping higher.
My target is the Buy to sell red line at the top of this Bear Flag. I believe prices will continue higher in the short term. I am looking for 400 ticks.
My entry is 39,874
Stop is 39,794 80 ticks
Target is 40,274 400 ticks
I believe it shall take the rest of the month to get up there. Then the start of the new month I don't know.