Dow Jones Price Cycles AnalysisThe average bull and bear price cycle on the Dow Jones is roughly 20-25 days before it switches back.
Roughly 3-6% moves in a direction
YM1! trade ideas
Dow Jones Looking For Next Higher Low Sell OffI had anticipated that Monday was going to be the high in my previous post. I initially thought it was going to pullback a little bit higher before a sell off but today it based lower and then sold off.
I am still bearish short term and will be looking for the next higher low to position myself short at least down to 39,650 to take out that small range back on May 14th
Funny how price is floating above that low just waiting for it to be taken out.
The average weekly candle on the Dow is 937 ticks.
That will place the low somewhere at 39,250 area, roughly.
Dow Jones Bullish Target 45,000I believe the low of late April's range will be the low in this up channel.
Price will chop around inside this box before coming back down to that low before ripping to the upside.
The top of the channel and 45,000 is a short-term target. My ultimate target is 90,000 around 2035
Every bull run is 26 years and 1000+% gains
The low was in 2009
2009-2035 is roughly 26 years
Great Short Trades on the DOW as price dumped on FOMCThe DOW was sold lower as traders looked to lock in some profit.
By planning ahead and assessing recent price action, you were able to steer clear of the early rally and focus on Sell Setups to take advantage of the selloff.
In the video review, I talk through the previous sessions price action and why I was looking for selling opportunities. I then discuss the Price Action on the trading charts and the momentum plays that led to the Sell Entry setups!!
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Winning Trades thanks to a clear Price Action readIn the video I talk through my trades on the DOW and reasoning for the executions.
I aim to take some trades early in the session if they setup and we had a few good setups in a generally range bound market.
I like to initially plan out the key levels using higher timeframe charts and then trade using the 5 min and 1min charts. By using a fast and slow MACD, I can define the short term momentum moves and then trade around them using the price action setups.
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High of the week sell off of Weekly Open and Golden PocketWith Monday and Tuesday off the books, we have the last three days left in this weekly template.
I see an obvious peak formation high printed on Monday and to me, this looks like Monday will set the high of the week.
The opening price of the week is at the neckline of that peak formation high. It also coincides inside the golden pocket of Mondays range as well.
To me, this looks like a down/doji weekly candle that will be printed. Small doji weekly candles have a range of about 350-500 ticks from high to low. If Monday is indeed the high of the week, then 500 ticks down will be at 39,700 and at around 1.5 times the range expansion of Mondays high to low range.
I will place a sell limit at 40,150 on the hourly chart
I will place a stop loss of 75 ticks above the "high of the week" if it holds.
I will place my target at 1X range expansion at 296 ticks
DOW JONES: Channel Up targeting 41,400Dow Jones is supported by the 4H MA50 and just turned technically bullish on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 55.413, MACD = 58.400, ADX = 34.689). As long as it does, we are bullish, aiming at another +5.03% rise (TP = 41,400).
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Elliott Wave Analysis Expects Dow Futures (YM) to Pullback in WaShort Term Elliott Wave in Dow Futures (YM) suggests rally from 4.19.2024 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 4.19.2024 low, wave ((i)) ended at 38801 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 37866. Index extends higher again in wave ((iii)) with internal subdivision as an impulse in lesser degree. The 1 hour chart below shows the subdivision of wave ((iii)).
Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 38527 and dips in wave ii ended at 38037. Index then extended higher in wave iii towards 39127 and pullback in wave iv ended at 38936. Final leg wave v ended at 39781 which completed wave (i). Index then pullback in wave (ii) towards 39405 and extended higher in wave (iii) towards 40191. Wave (iv) pullback ended at 39955. Final leg wave (v) ended at 40213 which completed wave ((iii)) in higher degree. Expect wave ((iv)) pullback to unfold in 3 swing before Index resumes higher in wave ((v)). Near term, as far as pivot at 37847 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
Dow Jones Weekly ATR EstimationsGoing through the weekly chart for the averages of how far Dow Jones can move in a week.
The last 84 weeks averaged out to 937 ticks. This lines up with the medium sized candles.
There are three types of weekly candles
1. Small Doji candle (28 occurrences)
2. Medium sized candle (47 occurrences)
3. Large expansion candle (9 occurrences)
This small set of data sampled tells me that the vast majority of weekly candles have a medium sized move between 700-1200 ticks with the average of all 84 weeks being 937 ticks.
Large sized expansion candles are rare with only 9 weekly candles exceeding 1400+ ticks
Small doji style candles are also fairly common with 28 weeks being between 350-550 ticks
Now that I know this information, the question is how to use it effectively in Live Time.
Trapped traders provides a great Short opportunity on DOW The plan for the session was to trade short off resistance on the DOW after an initial opening drive higher. The short side was the play and paid out nicely for patient sellers.
In the video I talk through the key Price Action for the move and prime trade areas on the DOW Index.
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YM short after sweeping Previous Week HighWe beautifuly took out Previous week high 20 points above! not random!
Manipulation mapping with Distribution didn't dissapointed. 👁🗨
SMT divergence with ES was also very good confluence to do short-term reversal.
Study that as me!
YM short after sweeping Previous Week HighWe beautifuly took out Previous week high 20 points above! not random!
Manipulation mapping with Distribution didn't dissapointed. 👁🗨
SMT divergence with ES was also very good confluence to do short-term reversal.
Study that as me!
YM to ATH!YM possible low of the week right know. took out 30 points below old low and tapped H4 BISI and H4 IFVG.
Dow futures - heading for further correctionCBOT_MINI:MYM1! Dow Futures have broken below the distributive uptrend channel and confirms the double top formation. Long-term MACD is bearish while mid-term stochastic has shown an oversold crossover. 23-period ROC is below the zero line and Ichimoku has shown first sign of bearish signal. Support is at 37,600
1/3 Average Weekly Range YMM20241/3 Average Weekly Range in New York AM Session sending us higher towards ATH, AWR acted like a true Support. 🔥
Short video of Lord Medz trade on NQ today.Dear Great Souls,
This is a video of Lord Medz trading MNQ live on a 5-second timeframe. In this video, I will demonstrate how I manage trades using anticipated swing highs and lows. For more information, please connect with me directly. Stay safe and stay strong.
Best regards,
Lord Medz
Break Down a Trading Session and Price Action Taking NotesIn the short video I show the price action from a session on the DOW JONES and the key price action that I see important for my daytrading.
This is a process I do each day to improve my trading and it helps to solidify in my mind what I want to see in the setups.
You will have to pause the video to read the notes but please enjoy.
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YM Wednesday Buy Low (IF it presents)If this sets up how I would like, then I am going to look for a buy low opportunity for a move higher through that lower high on the inside.
I will be entering in on the 15' chart and use a 50 tick stop. Target will be anywhere between 150-225 ticks
US30 My Analysis We had an upward trend in 4h and it has just broken it, so we hope that during the night it will stay in that area that is found. On the other hand in Diario we have an upward trend and the area below of purchase would be its regression to have a high probability of buying.
HOD Pump and Dump To LOD Set UpI have been backtesting a setup on the 15 minute chart where price grinds/spikes higher and engulfs at the High of Day only to dump down to the Low of Day.
I notice there are three variations of this pattern
It blows through the Low of day and makes a substantial lower low
It just barely takes out the Low of day
It comes just shy of the Low of day and DOES NOT take it out
YM - Sitting On My HandsNot as obvious as ES and NQ but i do have the inclination that $39,800 is in the cards.
Worth monitoring it throughout the week
Week of May 12 - AAPL/BTC/DJI/VIX/10yr
Last week we had record low volume on indexes as they drifted higher. There as a drought of news to move the market - and the volume was reminiscent of a holiday week.
Indexes
The DJI went vertical to fill the last weekly imbalance we had that was MOST in the premium of the swing.
From HERE - we are at a major deciding point. The weekly chart still is bearish and we need to confirm this was just our back-test. CBOT_MINI:YM1! needs to respect this weekly FVG and starting heading lower confirming this as our "lower high". Wicks above and outside the weekly FVG are permitted - but notice how they closed the weekly candle INSIDE the FVG - this means that the FVG is still being respected.
IF we can get confirmation of this being the lower high as set - the next logical targets are the April Lows/LOY.
The scam-ridden CME_MINI:NQ1! didn't do much this week but flop around inside a 2% range. I have no clear weekly bias on Nasdaq so I can't really comment too much on it.
The best thing I can see is that NASDAQ:AAPL is holding up here, but its ready to drop lower into the gap that was created. Once that happens, the market will go with it.
So far, its just a series of lower lows and lower highs.
Sectors
One thing I want to touch on - is where we are in the cycle. The way we can identify this, is that we can look at typical "late cycle" charts on Energy/Materials/Metals and compare them to the SPX. When you see these sectors rallying - its typically near/at the market tops.
Here is chart of $XLB/$XLI/$XLE/$XLP/
When you see Materials/Industrials/Energy/Staples all running up like this - it means that money is moving from things like tech and communication services - and into "safer" sectors.
Bitcoin
One of my favorite things to look at for a risk-apatite gauge is Bitcoin.
Weekly BTC is down by 17%. IF it doesn't bounce from down here and soon - a new bear market will begin. This week will give us CPI/PCE reports mid week that will be the key driver for the next market move.
VIX
Another concerning thing for bulls is the fact that the VIX is now near its yearly lows, and indexes aren't making ATH.
Again - This all smells super trappy as the market is setting up for the move during the mid-week inflation report releases.
Interest Rates
Rates are rolling over. The 10year continued its march lower this week and is now respecting bearish FVGs which is what we want to see. Half the reason that markets were able to drift higher this past week was due to the rates market being stable. This Bond trade is a longer term swing as I think that rates will crater during the coming recession.
So far - the 2/10 spread remains inverted for 2 years now. This is a RECORD duration and depth of yield curve inversion. This spread has a 100% accuracy rate when it comes to predicting recessions. Note the dates in the vertical white bars - once the 2s/10s un-invert - we have a recession 100% of the time.
So here is the setup I am watching for this week;
We saw YM pop into our MOST premium weekly IRL level - from here I will be looking for 4hr charts to displace lower and start the march towards nLOY.
Looking for interest rates to continue to march lower - this will be bullish for indexes (at first) as indexes tend to ignore WHY rates are dropping for a little while.
BTC needs to make a stand here - or its going to enter another bear market.
Until next week - We'll be watching.
