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YM1! trade ideas

Dow Jones February NFP Going In BearishThursday on the Daily chart flashed a sell signal for a rejection off of 45,000. I am going in Friday with a bearish bias. Of course, I have no idea what will happen and could always be wrong. To me, this makes the most sense. A sell off to close the gap. From 45,000 down to 44,300 is a 700 tick move, not unreasonable for a NFP day. Notable profit targets: Thursday's Low: 44,658 Weekly Open: 44,570 Wednesday's Low: 44,463 Tuesday's Double Bottom Low: 44,350 Monday's Unmitigated Wick: 44,310
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
Bullish Pullback Into SupportAfter Yesterday's fumble, on to a new day. I will be looking for a pullback into support marked by the green lines. I was expecting price to retrace a bit more before it bounced but it seems the market decided to bounce yesterday at the weekly open. I can't argue with the market; I can only react to what it does. I am only interested in finding a buy trade inside of my support area and the next target will be a break of the highs. 720-820 area for support Next resistance is honestly not here. After the break of the prior highs, we are back into all-time highs and 46,000 is a target. Yesterday, I decided to try for a short trade back down into support. The trade went 275 ticks for me before rolling over. I am ok with that because my job is to just execute the trade and manage my risk. What the market does after my entry is out of my hands. The market decided that support was at 44,475 and bounced. Scenario 1: Pullback into support Scenario 2: Price just continues higher and breaks the high from here Scenario 3: Price continues, stopping at the highs, pulls back to 45,000 area for support and breaks the highs
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
1
Dow Jones Range Forming Between 44,000 and 45,000Outlined below, I have a range forming from the Monday Initial balance. The three price levels to watch are: the weekly open (44,566) 50% of the range (44,393) the bottom 25% of the range (44,154) And of course, the high and low of this range. Where does price intend to go first? I am looking for the weekly open to turn into resistance I am looking for the low formed at the 50% of the range to be a target to get hit I am looking for the bottom 25% of the range to act as a major support buy Currently, in this exact moment, price is in the top 75% of the range and to me, this means No buys and in selling territory. Tuesday opened with a gap up and immediately sold down to the 50% of the range. It then did a creeping trend, grinding higher in a pullback back up into the top 75%. Because of the creeping trend, the low at the 50% and price being in the top 75%, I will find a shorting opportunity and target that low at 44,353
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
1
Dow Jones Weekly Template Gameplan February Week 1Now that I have seen Sunday opened and gapped down, I am more inclined to see a bounce off of 44,000 for the gap fill back up to 45,000. I am expecting shorts to get trapped down low right into the middle of the range for the trap and shift. Either Monday or Tuesday to form the low. This is of course the market doesn't blow right through 44,000 and head down to 43,000 first. I have no clue, just opinions. I will be trading what I see form in front of me.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
Dow Jones (March 2025) - End of January AnalysisSimilar to Nasdaq and S&P, although we have closed bullish for the month, Donald Trump has made an announcement that tariffs will be placed in Mexico, Canada and China at a rate of 25% & 10%, which the market did not seem to like on the Friday. Intraday timeframes tell a different story to what the macro market structure is dictating. Short term, we could be in for a bearish retracement, rooting out all the stubborn traders who have a medium to long term trade on whilst trailing their stop. Very interested this month with how YM, NQ and ES delivers.
CBOT_MINI:YMH2025Short
by LegendSince
Dow Jones February 2025 Monthly GameplanI am looking for a retrace back down to 2025's open price of 42,934 as notated in cyan blue line. After which, I am then looking for the bullish continuation to take out the highs and land around 46,250 zone. The average bullish monthly candle is 2500-3200 ticks using ATR. If price retraces to the yearly open and rallies from there with 3200 ticks, it will reach 46,250. That is my thought process. Using the 2 Hour, price has been consolidating around 45,000 before rejecting on Friday. Everything lines up to the tick. The first move higher and the subsequent measured move to the 2nd range expansion is 3200 ticks from high to low. The low from CPI is ripe for the taking. Of course, this is in preparation in what I believe to be a 20% drop from 48,000 down to 38,000. This trend is far away from the yearly trendline and a pullback to 38,000 would be PRIME buying.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
Dow Jones (March 2025) - Trump Has Dow Jones In A Headlock!Happy new year traders! This is a perfect time to do a review on the Dow Jones continuous contract and YMH (March 2025) contract as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias. With S&P 500 & Nasdaq frontrunning Dow Jones, a close eye must be kept on YM as it might eb the first symbol out of the three stock indexes that decides to capitulate. If that occurs, there's a high chance the others will follow suite.
CBOT_MINI:YMH2025Long
by LegendSince
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CBOT_MINI:MYM1!Education
by VisionStriker
2
12% Correction Update Since NFP ReleaseJust updating my thesis since I can see NFP started another leg down. Still in a 12% correction down to 40,750. Next week I am looking for a slight pullback before another leg down/ dump. Buying in this downtrend is going counter trend. Until we get down to 40,750 and start to see signs of bullish reversals should you then think about going Long. Until the meantime, look for shorts. I honestly thought price was going to make a double top or more of a pullback in that range before NFP dumped. I guess the market wants to dump sooner and get down to 40,750 faster. I only react to prices and trade accordingly. The blue line is 2025 Opens price and so far, price is selling off of it. Next target is the Gold line.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
5
DJIA Index. Shake it. Bake it. Booty Quake It. Roll It AroundMarkets were shaked this Friday after the December employment report came in much stronger than expected. The economy added 256,000 jobs in December, well above the average economist estimate of 155,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.1% from 4.2% in November. The Nasdaq 100 immediately dropped by about 1%, while the 10-year US Treasury yield spiked nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, representing its highest level since October 2023. The strong payroll report further strengthened the case for no more interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, at least for 2025. The moves in stocks and bonds are a continuation of what's been seen in recent weeks: Following a period of euphoric optimism, investors have started to anticipate higher inflation stemming from President Donald Trump's proposed trade and fiscal policies. If the upward move in bond yields continues, Americans will feel it in a big way. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets now expect just one 25-basis point interest rate cut this year, down from expectations late last year of as many as three. The chances that there will be no rate cuts in 2025 more than doubled Friday morning to 28%. Dollar index TVC:DXY rockets to the moon, while the 10-yr TVC:TNX strongly above 4.5%. Endogenously, the market has been preparing for such a turbulence, as it's been discussed in earlier posted idea "Strategy 2025. BTC Airless Scenario Below $100'000 Choking Point" . I remember, the financial market has had a tough weeks in last December, 2024, but it might also be in store for a tough year in 2025, as I noted those time. The market was on track for its worst weeks over years after the Federal Reserve gave a hawkish forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025. But looking at the market's internals, it was clear that damage had been inflicted well before the Fed's Wednesday meeting — and the signal is a historic indicator of tough times ahead. Dow Jones Futures has ended 6th straight RED WEEK in a row - the quite rare event. The historical back test analysis over last 25 years indicates, it could lead to further (at least) 10 percent decline for Top-30 stock club. The major technical graph indicates on a bearish trend in development, where major 200-week SMA support is nearly 35'700 points in this time.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by PandorraResearch
The US govt. will not shut down! So where Are we heading now?How interesting is this—markets seemed nervous for 3 weeks as we approached the deadline to fund the U.S. government. The deadline passed over the weekend, and a deal was reached. Yet, here we are, with Dow futures opening down 80 points. With Christmas Eve tomorrow, it looks like the Santa rally got canceled this year. Five Dow components are already in bear market territory (down more than 20% from their highs). So, what do you think? Is this the perfect spot for a pullback, or do we rally from here? I’ll be looking for weak spots to short with a tight stop—and I’d love to hear your thoughts. Leave your comments below!
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by onlytrade2win