Gold) Technical Update – Market Subdued AheadXAUUSD Technical Update – Market Subdued Ahead of Key Data
Gold is currently trading with limited momentum, reflecting a subdued market sentiment despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Notably, the market has largely digested the recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, showing a muted reaction to these developments.
Resistance levels 3395 / 3422
Support Levels 3355 /3350
Lets see more details in the chart Ps support with like and comments for more analysis Thanks
CFDGOLD trade ideas
XAU/USD: Market Dynamics Analysis and Trading StrategiesI. Market Trends and Sentiment Analysis
Driven by the U.S. military intervention in the Middle East conflict, gold exhibited violent fluctuations of "gap-up opening followed by rapid correction" in early trading:
- Price Performance: After gapping up to $3,395/oz, the intraday maximum decline approached $50, hitting a low of $3,347 and currently trading around $3,355—reflecting intense battles between bulls and bears at key levels.
- Sentiment Drivers: While risk aversion boosted safe-haven demand, short-term corrections were jointly triggered by profit-taking from prior long positions and institutional market-washing maneuvers. Note that the weekly "bull-bear alternating" volatility pattern remains intact, with no unilateral trend established yet.
II. Technical Key Levels and Trend Qualification
1. Support & Resistance Structure
- Strong Support: $3,340–$3,350 range (confluence of May’s low and 60-day moving average), a bottom platform tested three times in the past two weeks with robust buying support.
- Short-term Resistance: $3,375–$3,380 (lower edge of the early gap + 4-hour Bollinger Band midline), with a breakthrough targeting the $3,400 psychological level.
2. Cycle Pattern Analysis
- Weekly Frame: Two consecutive weeks of alternating bull/bear candlesticks, with RSI anchored in the 50–60 neutral zone, indicating ongoing tug-of-war between long/short forces.
- Daily Frame: Today’s correction held above the prior low of $3,340, forming a "long lower-shadow bearish candlestick"—signaling active buying at lows and suggesting the correction may be nearing conclusion.
III. Trading Strategy: Capitalize on Correction Entries
- Entry Zone: Layered long positions at $3,340–$3,350, with $3,340 as the invalidation stop (shift to neutral if breached).
- Target Levels: Initial target at $3,375–$3,380 (short-term profit-taking), with a break above eyeing $3,400 (mid-to-long-term target).
- Trading Logic: Support validity + weekly range-bound bullish bias, with corrections viewed as benign within the broader trend.
IV. Risk Controls & Operational Notes
- No Chasing Shorts: The current correction is a technical retracement within the uptrend; chasing shorts risks falling into a "bear trap".
- Dynamic Monitoring: Closely track the $3,340 support threshold and evolving Middle East developments.
XAUUSD
buy@3340-3350
tp:3365-3375
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DXY: WARLORDS.We are in a sticky situation as Trump ordered strikes against Iran during the weekend which was bound to shake up the foreign exchange market.Thats the major reason for volatility witnessed today during early sessions.
And like the warlords it time to make money.There is still little information to work with so we will wait till New York session to see if there will be signs of uptick in DXY. Fired up for the new week.Bullish on dollar and traditional safe havens.
XAUUSD M15 I Bearish ReversalBased on the M15 chart, the price is trading near our sell entry level at 3367-3365, a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 38.2% Fib retracement.
Our take profit is set at 3346.73, a pullback support.
The stop loss is set at 3384.55, a pullback resistance.
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Weekend Report – June 21, 2025US FEDERAL RESERVE SPLIT: POLICY AT A CROSSROADS:
The US Federal Reserve stands increasingly divided over the trajectory of interest rates, with significant macro implications. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, viewed as a top contender to succeed Jerome Powell, called for a rate cut as early as the next meeting, citing muted inflationary pressure despite Donald Trump's new tariff regime. This position contrasts sharply with Powell’s own tone, which remains cautious amid a lack of definitive economic signals.
The Fed has now paused for four straight meetings following 100 bps of cuts in 2024. However, the so-called "dot plot" released this week reveals increasing internal disagreement: 10 Fed officials project two or more cuts, while seven see no rate moves at all. Futures markets reflect expectations of two quarter-point cuts in 2025, starting around October, suggesting investors believe inflation remains contained despite trade protectionism.
Waller's comments underscore growing Fed discomfort with political pressure. Trump has called for 250 bps in cuts and publicly derided Powell, adding to uncertainty about the Fed's independence heading into an election cycle. While Powell emphasized “anchored long-term inflation expectations” and said divergence would “diminish with data,” the Fed’s credibility remains sensitive to both political intervention and market interpretation.
SWISS INHERITANCE TAX POLL TRIGGERS CAPITAL FLIGHT RISK:
Switzerland faces reputational and financial damage ahead of a national vote in November to introduce a 50% inheritance tax on estates above SFr50 million. The proposal—originating from the far-left Young Socialists—is spurring warnings of an exodus of UHNWIs, reminiscent of the UK’s non-dom exodus.
Legal and private banking professionals report that families are already relocating to Italy, Greece, and the UAE, fearing that even the proposal introduces dangerous legal and fiscal uncertainty. Prominent voices in Geneva and Zurich warn this could irreparably harm Switzerland’s wealth management brand and weaken its position amid competition from zero-tax jurisdictions like Dubai and Hong Kong.
SUDAN’S GOLD SURGE FINANCES WARFARE:
Sudan’s ongoing civil war is being underwritten by soaring artisanal gold production, driven by record-high bullion prices. Output hit 80 tonnes in 2024, worth over $6 billion, much of it smuggled to the UAE and Russia. This illicit supply chain funds both the SAF and RSF factions in a war that has killed 150,000 and displaced 12 million people.
International think tanks such as Chatham House and C4ADS warn of deeply entrenched militarized trade networks and argue that the West has failed to address mineral revenue flows with sanctions or regulatory frameworks. Analysts suggest that targeting gold supply chains could represent a powerful pressure point in ending the conflict.
BBC THREATENS AI STARTUP OVER CONTENT MISUSE:
The BBC has issued a legal ultimatum to Perplexity AI, accusing the $14 billion-valued US AI search engine of unlawfully scraping and reproducing BBC content. In a formal letter, the BBC demanded deletion of scraped material and financial compensation, citing reputational damage and copyright violations.
This marks the UK broadcaster’s first aggressive stance against AI scraping, as public sector institutions grow wary of being used to train large language models without remuneration or consent. While Perplexity dismissed the claim as “manipulative,” this could signal a broader wave of litigation across media institutions echoing ongoing legal battles from News Corp, The New York Times, and Condé Nast.
APOLLO BOLSTERS UK NUCLEAR BUILDOUT WITH £4.5BN LOAN:
US private capital giant Apollo has agreed to fund £4.5bn in unsecured debt to EDF’s delayed Hinkley Point C project in Somerset, easing pressure on a project whose costs have ballooned from £18bn to £46bn, with a new opening date set for 2029. The loan, at ~7% interest, addresses a shortfall following the UK’s ejection of China General Nuclear in 2023.
The deal is a win for private credit’s emergence in public infrastructure, and a major boost to the UK’s push for baseload, low-carbon energy independence. EDF will now focus on France, while UK officials prepare to approve another £11.5bn investment into Sizewell C, to be discussed at a Franco-British summit in July.
MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT DRIVES ENERGY VOLATILITY AND RISK REPRICING:
The geopolitical crisis between Israel and Iran continues to drive extreme price movements in energy and logistics. Brent crude briefly surged to $79 per barrel, up 10% from the previous week after Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure. Though prices have since retraced to $76.66, volatility remains elevated due to uncertainty over supply routes.
VLCC charter rates from the Gulf to China more than doubled from $19,998 to $47,609 per day within a week, with owners holding out for further gains. Rates for LR2 product tankers also surged to $51,879 per day. This reflects a possible market shift away from Iran’s dark fleet toward fully insured routes, which could lead to persistent tightness in freight availability.
Global markets responded to tentative diplomatic outreach. European equities rallied, with Frankfurt’s DAX up 1.3%, while the FTSE 100 fell 0.2% on weak UK retail data. The VIX dropped 8%, but investor caution remains as supply chain risks through the Strait of Hormuz—transiting 30% of global seaborne crude loom large.
EU-CHINA TENSIONS ESCALATE IN MEDTECH SECTOR:
The European Commission announced that Chinese companies will be excluded from public procurement of medical devices on contracts exceeding €5 million. This move, enabled by the International Procurement Instrument, comes after EU investigations concluded 87% of Chinese contracts discriminate against EU suppliers.
With EU-China tensions already inflamed by tariffs on EVs and spirits, this marks a pivot toward strategic reciprocity. China condemned the measure as “protectionism” and threatened countermeasures. The Commission remains open to lifting the restrictions should Beijing provide market access parity. This signals to global investors a tightening regulatory environment for Chinese participation in critical EU sectors.
US CLEAN ENERGY FACES POST-TRUMP CLIFF:
The Biden-era clean energy boom is facing a rapid reversal. Major solar providers like Sunnova and Mosaic have filed for bankruptcy, as proposed Congressional tax legislation threatens to slash key residential solar credits. Industry leaders predict a 50–60% demand collapse and up to 250,000 job losses if cuts proceed.
Markets are already repricing: Sunrun shares dropped 36%, Enphase 21%, SolarEdge 30%, and First Solar 19% in recent days. With at least nine bankruptcies in 2025, compared to 16 in all of 2024, the sector’s liquidity is at breaking point. The Solar Energy Industries Association warns of a “six-month cliff” ahead, as the Trump administration pivots toward oil, biofuels, and nuclear.
X CORP PUSHES INTO FINANCIAL SERVICES:
Elon Musk’s X (formerly Twitter) is accelerating its push to become an “everything app” akin to China’s WeChat. CEO Linda Yaccarino announced plans to launch peer-to-peer payments, trading, and even debit cards this year via X Money, beginning in the US with Visa integration.
While this could revolutionize user engagement and monetization, analysts warn of regulatory risks including compliance with anti-money laundering, KYC, and financial licensing laws. Notably, X is seeking to recover its ad business post-Musk acquisition 96% of advertisers have reportedly returned, though 2025 revenue forecasts ($2.3bn) remain far below 2022 levels ($4.1bn).
MICROSOFT VS OPENAI: EQUITY BATTLE INTENSIFIES:
Microsoft is reportedly prepared to walk away from equity renegotiations with OpenAI if no favorable deal is reached. While the partnership remains in “good faith,” Microsoft wants to retain its 20% revenue share up to $92bn, exclusive Azure distribution rights, and access to OpenAI’s IP pre-AGI.
OpenAI needs Microsoft’s approval to finalize its for-profit restructuring, without which it risks losing funding commitments from SoftBank and others. This adds pressure to an already fragile alliance amid infrastructure capacity constraints and competition from xAI and Meta’s Llama. Market attention now shifts to whether OpenAI’s valuation premium holds if Microsoft pivots to broader AI diversification.
NOVO NORDISK SURGES ON OBESITY PIPELINE STRENGTH:
Novo Nordisk has announced early-stage trial results for amycretin, a new obesity drug that caused 24.3% weight loss in its injectable form, surpassing both Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. The pill version delivered 13.1% loss, with the potential to match injectables over longer durations.
Novo is aiming to regain investor confidence after disappointing CagriSema trials last year. Shares, down over 50% YoY, may rebound as the company expands its anti-obesity portfolio. Analysts say amycretin could rival Lilly’s orforglipron, which showed 14.7% weight loss over 36 weeks in Phase 2 trials.
NIGER NATIONALIZES URANIUM ASSETS AMID GEOPOLITICAL SHIFT:
Niger has moved to nationalize the Somair uranium project, co-owned with France’s Orano, amid deteriorating diplomatic ties. The junta accuses Orano of failing to transfer funds and actively undermining the state. Compensation will be offered, but France's influence in Niger’s resource sector is likely to decline.
This follows a trend of state asset seizures in the Sahel, with Mali and Burkina Faso asserting more control over mining ventures. Orano is reportedly seeking to sell its Niger assets, possibly to Russian or Chinese interests. The move adds a new geopolitical risk layer to nuclear energy supply chains.
AUSTAL SHIPYARD TAKEOVER POSES SECURITY DEBATE:
South Korea’s Hanwha is seeking to increase its stake in Australian defense shipbuilder Austal to 19.9%, raising national security concerns. While CFIUS has cleared the deal in the US, Australia’s FIRB may block it, given Austal’s pivotal role in naval procurement. CEO Paddy Gregg said foreign ownership would conflict with Canberra’s “sovereignty-first” strategy outlined in its 2023 defense review.
While US officials favor Hanwha’s role in joint shipbuilding initiatives, Australia must weigh alliance integration against domestic capability protection. This debate reflects broader defense industrial shifts in the Indo-Pacific amid growing Chinese naval assertiveness.
Bearish Technicals prevailedTechnical analysis: Despite the strong Bearish candle sequence on the DX (few percents down), Gold remains on losses however above my Support for the session as the U.S. session approaching and geo-political tensions resurfacing. However, #3,395.80 is new Resistance zone made by the Hourly 4 candlestick configuration. Gold is pulling back again after it failed to break above it’s Resistance variance (#3,388.80 - #3,395.80 - #3,402.80) on the Hourly 4 chart, while #3,352.80 benchmark configuration is protecting the eminent downtrend. This sequence is similar to the September #24 - #28 pattern when a Double Bottom was made before the strong rebound. Also current Gold's impulse and rejection was Highly correlated with the side Swings on the Bond Yields market, happening on Hourly basis. As discussed, Gold is Trading within Descending Channel and that fractal is Buying back every dip and postponing the downtrend and pointing me that Gold should be timed for consolidation session (regarding Short-term). I am looking to complete a full oscillation towards #3,327.80 if #3,342.80 - #3,352.80 gives away, in the same time my main point of interests. I am expecting recovery however within #1 - #3 sessions if DX extend the Selling sequence and remain with a Daily chart proportions decline. My practical suggestion would be to wait for a break-out and then make a move, since at the moment - there is a clash between Bearish Technicals on Gold and Fundamental war escalation uncertainty which could make Investors park their capital from Gold into more riskier assets - and vice versa. Consequently the current consolidation and another Bearish wave should come as no Technical surprise, only if Fundamentals do not arise Buyers of the market.
My position: As my Profit quota for the week / Month is already acquired, I will not take any more orders for today's session. I lean of course more to Bearish side Intra-day, however even if I engage, will be Scalp order rather than positioning myself for #10 - #20 point move.
Gold — Awaiting Clarity at the Neckline (FRL Setup)“Trading is capital management under uncertainty. The red horizontal zone is the zone of uncertainty. Neckline levels are rubicons — thresholds where the market becomes clear to us. Don’t fear uncertainty. Learn to wait for the moment when everything becomes clear.”
Right now, gold is forming an upward trend. But as we know, every trend consists of impulses and corrections — and each of those is a trend of its own.
According to Fractal Reversal Law (FRL):
• Every structure ends with a reversal pattern.
• A neckline is always strictly horizontal and defined by the last impulse’s top.
• The MA100 tells us the scale we’re working with — helping us select the right timeframe to confirm.
🔍 In this setup:
• A potential reversal pattern is forming.
• The neckline coincides perfectly with the MA100 — a strong alignment of structure and scale.
• We also see early signs of MACD divergence, suggesting loss of bearish momentum.
Neckline levels: 3400 for a Double bottom and 3300 for a Double top.
✅ What to wait for:
• A full-bodied candle close above the neckline (not just a wick).
• This signals the end of correction and potential beginning of a new impulse.
🎯 Target:
• Measure the height from the neckline to the bottom of the correction.
• Project it upward from the neckline to estimate the first profit target.
GOLD (XAU/USD), cycle top made?Has the price of gold made its final high point in a bullish cycle, while the geopolitical situation in the Middle East seems to be beginning to ease? The answer to this question cannot be a simple yes, as there are so many fundamental factors influencing gold's trend on the commodities market.
But it is true that, in terms of technical analysis, signals of the end of a bullish cycle (the one that began at the start of 2024, when the price made a bullish technical break of its former all-time high at $2075 an ounce of gold) are gradually appearing, in particular bearish divergences.
1) GOLD, medium/long-term bearish technical divergences are gradually appearing
First of all, let's begin our analysis with the technical aspect for medium/long-term time horizons. The two charts below show signs that the underlying uptrend is running out of steam, with a bearish price/momentum divergence in weekly data. As for the monthly chart, it shows that the theoretical targets of bullish wave number 5 (the last bullish impulse in the Elliott wave cycle) have been made. This doesn't mean with 100% probability that the final high point has been made, but it does highlight that the bullish cycle is well matured and that less buoyant fundamentals may trigger a price breath at the current stage.
Chart showing Japanese candles in monthly gold price data (XAU/USD)
Chart showing Japanese candles in weekly gold price data (XAU/USD)
2) On the other hand, we must remain cautious, as the geopolitical situation is still very tense, and the fundamental factors influencing gold are many and varied
The fundamentals that have underpinned GOLD's fundamental uptrend are numerous and go far beyond the geopolitical framework. While geopolitics is calming down in the Middle East, it remains very complicated in Ukraine. But despite everything, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran is taking bullish support away from the GOLD.
But keep in mind that other factors are at work, notably physical demand for gold in China and financial demand for gold via ETFs in particular. The latter is directly linked to interest rates, the US dollar and therefore the FED's monetary policy outlook.
Therefore, mere appeasement in the Middle East is NOT a sufficient argument for the end of GOLD's bullish cycle in fundamental terms.
3) The bullish technical signal we highlighted for you on XPT/USD
In an analysis of precious metals on June 10, we highlighted a bullish technical signal on the platinum price (XPT/USD), with an outperformance signal given against gold. This analysis can be viewed again by clicking on the link/image below.
Based on the monthly technical analysis, the platinum price is approaching the overbought zone, so don't hesitate to accompany the movement with a trailing protective stop, as sooner or later there will be a market breather.
Chart showing monthly Japanese candlesticks for platinum (XPT/USD)
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June 25, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential OpportunitySummary:
Gold remains in a consolidation range between 3340 and 3400.
If price holds above 3350, bullish momentum may return and push toward 3365.
If price breaks below 3315, the strategy remains to sell on pullbacks to resistance.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• 3365 – Resistance
• 3350 – Midpoint / Bull-Bear Line
• 3342 – Key Resistance
• 3328 – Resistance
• 3315 – Intraday Key Support
• 3300 – Psychological Support
• 3295 – Support
• 3285 – Support
📉 Intraday Strategy:
• SELL if price breaks below 3315 → watch 3305, then 3300, 3295, 3285
• BUY if price holds above 3350 → target 3356, then 3365, 3370, 3375
👉 If you want to know how I time entries and set stop-losses, hit the like button so I know there's interest — I may publish a detailed post by the weekend if support continues!
Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion, not financial advice. Trade with caution and always manage your risk.
Gold Slips on Ceasefire — Bearish Momentum Continues Below 3350XAUUSD Analysis – June 25, 2025
Gold slipped significantly and dropped by 1.79% following eased geopolitical tensions after a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. As risk appetite recovered and the USD strengthened sharply, Gold finally broke below the key support at $3,350, falling straight to the next support level around $3,304.
This clean and aggressive sell-off suggests that sellers are still dominating the short-term market structure. Technically, Gold is now trading within a new support range of $3,304–$3,327, while the broader trend remains clearly bearish.
🔍 Technical Outlook:
After the break of 3,350, we can observe that price is forming lower highs and lower lows. The previous high is still located at 3,395, which makes any swing trade risky due to wide stop losses.
However, given the sharp drop, a short-term correction toward 3,327–3,336 is possible before another leg down. The current structure supports shorting the retracement, as long as no bullish reversal pattern emerges on the H4 or D1 timeframe.
📌 Trading Plan (Intraday / Short-term idea):
🔻 Sell Limit: 3,327
❌ Stop Loss: 3,337
🎯 Take Profit: 3,305
⚠️ Use a small lot size due to the 100-pip stop.
This is a short-term plan, best executed in the M15–H1 timeframe. We avoid swing entries until a better structure is confirmed.
📊 Key Levels (Pivot System):
R3: 3,379
R2: 3,366
R1: 3,350
Pivot: 3,327
S1: 3,305
S2: 3,286
S3: 3,256
💬 Summary:
Gold continues its bearish momentum. Watch closely for potential short-term correction toward 3,327–3,336. As long as price fails to break above 3,336 or form a bullish engulfing structure, we remain cautiously bearish.
GOLD - WAVE 5 BULLISH TO $3,734 (UPDATE)Here’s an updated analysis, as ‘Minor Wave 2’ is still forming & pulling back deeper into the $3,285 zone.
We’ll be keeping an eye around this zone for a slow down in bearish momentum & if we get it, we’ll enter a buy trade. If momentum doesn’t slow down, we will let it go towards $3,245 & invalidate bullish structure. That way we know to look for sell’s📉
TP1: $3,374
TP2: $4,300
6.24 Strategy after the sharp drop in gold6.24 Strategy after the sharp drop in gold
After Iran launched a retaliatory strike against the United States on the 24th, the United States chose to cease fire and did not expand the conflict. The market's risk aversion sentiment quickly fell, suppressing the price of gold.
Yesterday, the price of gold fluctuated violently. Although there was a rebound, the overall trend was still weak. The price of gold failed to effectively break through the previous key resistance of 3400 after multiple upward explorations, indicating that the upward movement was weak and the market's short-selling pressure continued to increase.
At present, the price has fallen below the important support level of 3330. If it cannot recover quickly in the future, 3316 will still not be the end point in the future market.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to short on the rebound and go long at low levels
BUY: around 3320
SL: 3315
TP: 3335
SELL: around 3340
SL: 3351
TP: 3290
Thank you for your attention. I hope my analysis can help you.
XAUU-USD chart it will go back upwardXAUUSD Buy Setup Active 🟢💰
Gold is holding strong above key support – currently trading at 3355. We’ve entered a Buy position expecting continued bullish momentum in the market.
📍 Entry: 3355
🎯 Targets: 3420 – 3450 – Final Target 3400
🛑 Stop Loss: 3325 (below recent structure low)
With global uncertainty and technical strength aligning, this move could push gold higher in the coming sessions.
Stay alert, manage risk, and follow the trend until reversal confirmation. 🧭📈
#XAUUSD #GoldTrade #ForexTrading #BuySetup #TradingViewAnalysis #MarketUpdate
DROP ON CEASEFIRE H4 Timeframe Analysis
Gold is currently holding the Rising wedge pattern on H4 Today we have volume opening Gap on OANDA which is still pending.
Market is holding the Range of 3330-3380
What's possible scanarios we have?
I'm expecting the upside move towards my Targets.
if gold sustained with this rising Parallel channel and H4 remains above 3332-3335 then target will be 3360 then 3380 on mark
On the otherhand if The H4 candle closes below 3328-3320 buyying will be limited and market will again the rangbound 3290-3330
#XAUUSD
Gold Spot Price Trend Analysispresents a detailed analysis of the gold spot price trend against the U.S. dollar, captured over a four-hour interval. The chart displays a fluctuating pattern, with prices ranging from approximately $3,320 to $3,383.74 USD. A notable decline is observed, marked by a red box indicating a support level at $3,332.53, while a green box suggests a resistance level at $3,383.74. The current price stands at $3,353.94, with a slight decrease of 0.42%. The chart provides valuable insights for investors and traders seeking to understand the dynamics of the gold market.
Gold hyperbullischAs long as gold continues to use the pitchfork as bullish support, it can be assumed that the metal is currently in an ongoing wave 3, implying further upside potential. Corrections remain shallow in both time and price. Geopolitical tensions typically support increased demand for gold, and rising volume shows no signs of weakness so far. NFA