CFDGOLD trade ideas
Gold Outlook: Sharp Breakout or Pullback Ahead?Despite heightened geopolitical tensions alongside a weak US Dollar, gold's price action remains in pullback mode below the $3,400 level, awaiting a catalyst.
Technically, gold remains at the upper boundary of a long-term ascending channel, anchored by the 2016 and 2020 highs. It also sits just beneath the projected breakout zone of a large cup-and-handle pattern, with a potential target near $4,000.
If gold manages a firm close above $3,500 and clears the upper boundary of the channel, bullish momentum could lift prices toward $3,700, and possibly $4,000, during the second half of 2025.
Conversely, sustained weakness below the $3,300 level would open the door to near-term support zones at $3,290, $3,240, $3,100, and $2,800, which may offer "buy-the-dip" opportunities along its primary uptrend.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
Gold delivering excellent Scalp opportunities Fundamental analysis: Gold was among the losers (Short-term) of the Fed's decision this throughout yesterday’s session for then first time within #8-Month period. Valuable ground's given and #3,400.80 benchmark looks unreachable for at least this week’s borders. Fed kept rates unchanged, and signaled that current Rate would continue through #2025 to support the next phase of the economic recovery. Investors clearly show their interest to try riskier assets like equities and as long as DX is without a recovery (currently on steep Descending Channel), Gold will keep constantly deliver Bull spikes. Daily chart turned Neutral with Resistance level priced at #3,395.80 - #3,400.80 and if invalidated I expect historic upside potential of Gold (my estimations show even #3,452.80 and #3,500.80 in succession within #2 - #3 Month variance). Quarterly Investors will pressure on the Resistance based on Bullish Fundamental outlook on Gold. However with Gold’s Technicals critically Bearish, I won’t be surprised to see values below #3,352.80 benchmark tested and invalidated.
My position : I have monitored the Price-action from sidelines and spotted few patterns however didn’t engaged as my Profit range is already decent. However I spotted excellent post-Fed opportunity and Bought Gold aggressively on #3,363.80 and closed the order on #3,378.80 last night. I will continue Scalping current #3,357.80 - #3,395.80 range as it is excellent Trading lately.
Gold – Will Geopolitical Tensions Trigger a Breakout ?Hello traders, what’s your view on gold today?
So far, gold remains relatively quiet, with limited reaction to the initial FOMC statement. The market is clearly holding its breath ahead of the upcoming press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
As of now, the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at 4.50% – but the real question is: where does gold go next?
In my opinion, gold still holds long-term upside potential, especially with the ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran, which could potentially pull the U.S. directly into involvement. For gold, this is an ideal environment to shine as a safe-haven asset. The greater the geopolitical risk, the more investors seek capital protection – and gold remains the go-to choice.
Technically, the first resistance level is seen at $3,400, followed by $3,440. On the downside, immediate support lies at $3,350, then $3,330.
Let’s see if gold holds its ground or prepares for the next big move.
Are you ready for the next wave of gold market?Gold fell back as expected after opening high. Today's strategy arranged long orders at 3350-3352, and successfully closed the market at around 3362 with profit. The subsequent three short orders also closed the market at a profit as expected. The points were perfectly predicted, and the long and short positions were perfectly grasped during the day. The strategic ideas were disclosed in advance and all were fulfilled.
At present, the overall trend of gold is still bullish, and it is in the adjustment stage in the short term. The large range this week is 3340-3405. Although there is a rebound, the upward pressure is still not small, and the gold price may continue the wide range of long and short fluctuations. Pay attention to the 3355-3340 area below. In terms of operation, long orders are arranged according to the strength of the retreat; pay attention to 3385 in the short term above. If it can effectively break through, look at 3395-3405. The strong pressure is still at the 3405 line. If it does not break, it will still fall under pressure. On the contrary, if it stabilizes, it is expected to hit last week's high.
Operation suggestion: When gold falls back to around 3355-3340, long orders can be arranged in batches, with the target at 3370-3380. Short orders will be adjusted according to the real-time market, please pay attention to the bottom 🌐 notification for specific points.
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3340 and a gap below at 3418. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3340
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3340 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3463
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3463 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3483
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3483 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3508
BEARISH TARGETS
3418
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3418 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3393
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3393 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3372
3353
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3393 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3330
3306
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Current Gold Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsOn Wednesday, the morning strategy suggested going long on gold at 3,375-3,365, perfectly seizing the pullback low and rebounding to the 3,400 level as expected. Today, there is also the Fed interest rate decision. Before the data release, short positions can be taken if the 3,400-3,405 level remains unbroken. If the 3,405-3,410 level is broken, we will continue to be bullish. Gold is in short-term oscillation, so try not to chase the market. Wait for a good entry opportunity. The upper level has also been repeatedly contested recently, and the Fed data is likely to break the range after its release.
For gold, continue to adopt an oscillating approach. In the 4H cycle, it is operating below the middle band. The short-term range is 3,405-3,365. If it breaks above 3,405, it can continue to target 3,420 and 3,450. Conversely, if it breaks below 3,365, it can fall to 3,350. In operation, prioritize long positions with short positions as a supplement, and adjust the strategy when a breakout occurs.
XAUUSD
buy@3370-3375
tp:3390-3400-3420
sell@3395-3400
tp:3380-3370
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
Gold Cooling After Spike – $3375 Key Level to WatchBy analyzing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after surging to $3450 amid the Iran–Israel conflict, gold faced a pullback following a liquidity sweep above that level.
Currently, gold is trading around $3392, and after a potential correction down to $3375, I expect to see further upside movement.
⚠️ Stay cautious — gold remains highly volatile and sudden moves are likely!
GOLD On June 18, 2025, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 245,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous 250,000 and in line with forecasts around 246,000.
Interpretation of the Data:
Current Level:
Claims are stabilizing near the highest levels seen in the past eight months but remain historically low overall, indicating the labor market is slowing but still relatively resilient.
Labor Market Momentum:
The slight decline suggests a modest easing in layoffs but also reflects a gradual loss of labor market momentum, consistent with softer hiring trends seen in recent months.
Seasonal and Technical Factors:
Some elevation in claims is attributed to seasonal factors such as summer school breaks allowing non-teaching personnel to claim benefits, and technical adjustments.
Impact on Markets and Fed Policy:
The Fed views stable but slightly elevated claims as a sign that the labor market is cooling but not weakening sharply.
This supports the expectation that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% in the June 18TH meeting while monitoring future data for signs of further labor market weakening or inflation pressures.
The data reduces immediate pressure for aggressive rate cuts but keeps the door open for gradual easing later in the year if the labor market softens further.
#GOLD
Gold bottomed out and rebounded, continue to go longAffected by the situation in the Middle East, gold opened high and fell again on Monday, just like last Monday. At present, it has fallen back to the 3352-3355 line and fluctuated. Although it is under short-term pressure, the bull channel has not been broken, and the retracement is still a long opportunity. The support below is 3340-3345, and the short-term resistance is 3380-3385. It is only a matter of time before it breaks through. The key suppression is still in the 3400-3415 area. In terms of strategy, continue to arrange long orders around the retracement, be cautious in chasing orders in the middle oscillation zone, and wait patiently for key position signals. The specific points are subject to the bottom 🌐 notification.
Gold suggestion: arrange long orders around 3340-3350, and the target is 3370-3380.
GOLD 3HR PYTHUnemployment Claims Data Context
Forecast: 246,000
Previous: 248,000
The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.
Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast
Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.
Fed Response:
The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.
This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.
The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.
Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast
Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Fed Response:
The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.
This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.
The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.
Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook
Expected Outcome:
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.
Supporting Factors:
Inflation is moderating but remains above target.
Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.
Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.
Market Odds:
There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.
Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
GOLD Unemployment Claims Data Context
Forecast: 246,000
Previous: 248,000
The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.
Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast
Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.
Fed Response:
The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.
This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.
The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.
Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast
Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Fed Response:
The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.
This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.
The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.
Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook
Expected Outcome:
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.
Supporting Factors:
Inflation is moderating but remains above target.
Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.
Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.
Market Odds:
There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.
Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
GOLD 3HR LINE CHARTUnemployment Claims Data Context
Forecast: 246,000
Previous: 248,000
The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.
Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast
Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.
Fed Response:
The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.
This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.
The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.
Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast
Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Fed Response:
The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.
This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.
The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.
Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook
Expected Outcome:
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.
Supporting Factors:
Inflation is moderating but remains above target.
Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.
Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.
Market Odds:
There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.
Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
GOLD 3HR OANDA Unemployment Claims Data Context
Forecast: 246,000
Previous: 248,000
The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.
Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast
Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.
Fed Response:
The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.
This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.
The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.
Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast
Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Fed Response:
The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.
This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.
The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.
Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook
Expected Outcome:
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.
Supporting Factors:
Inflation is moderating but remains above target.
Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.
Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.
Market Odds:
There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.
Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
GOLD 1HRUnemployment Claims Data Context
Forecast: 246,000
Previous: 248,000
The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.
Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast
Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.
Fed Response:
The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.
This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.
The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.
Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast
Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Fed Response:
The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.
This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.
The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.
Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook
Expected Outcome:
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.
Supporting Factors:
Inflation is moderating but remains above target.
Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.
Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.
Market Odds:
There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.
Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
GOLD 30MIN Unemployment Claims Data Context
Forecast: 246,000
Previous: 248,000
The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.
Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast
Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.
Fed Response:
The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.
This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.
The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.
Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast
Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Fed Response:
The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.
This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.
The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.
Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook
Expected Outcome:
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.
Supporting Factors:
Inflation is moderating but remains above target.
Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.
Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.
Market Odds:
There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.
Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
Lingrid | GOLD Weekly Analysis: Geopolitical Safe-Haven RallyOANDA:XAUUSD demonstrated exceptional strength this week as geopolitical tensions from Israeli-Iranian conflicts drove massive safe-haven demand. The metal successfully broke above the critical 3,360 resistance level, confirming the completion of an inverse head and shoulders pattern that has been forming since April.
The 4H chart reveals the market appears to be forming an ascending triangle pattern within a broader upward trendline, suggesting continued bullish momentum. The recent breakout above the monthly high resistance zone indicates strong institutional buying pressure.
The daily chart presents an even more compelling picture with the completion of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, a classic bullish reversal formation. This technical setup, combined with the massive flag pattern completion, projects potential targets toward $3,650-$3,700 levels. The right shoulder formation confirms the pattern's validity, while sustained buying above previous resistance zones validates the upward trajectory.
We should monitor the $3,430-$3,450 resistance area closely, as a decisive break could accelerate momentum toward the projected targets. The combination of geopolitical risk premiums and technically sound chart patterns creates a favorable environment for continued gold appreciation in the mid-term.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
Following up on last week’s chart update, we saw another perfect test of the channel top, right in line with our Goldturn Channel expectations. The new weekly candle completed the channel top challenge with precision.
Our weekly chart idea is now playing out perfectly. We continued to get strong support above 3281, followed by another hit onto the 3387 channel top. But this time, we got something new: a body close above 3387, which confirms the gap to 3482 as active. We’ll now look for that 3482 target to be hit, ascending inline with the channel top.
Any rejection around these upper levels will likely see price retrace to find support at lower Goldturn levels. These are opportunities we’ll be watching closely to buy back in.
Price action remains well-contained between 3281 and 3387, but with that recent close above 3387, we’re now shifting focus toward higher expansion. The structure is rising, and the channel is guiding price beautifully, offering more room for smart, calculated positioning.
As long as we hold above the half-line and especially above 3281, we stay in buy-the-dip mode, favouring long setups from intraday Goldturn zones for quick 20–40 pip scalps or more extended swing entries when structure permits.
Should we see a failure to maintain above 3387 or a close back below 3281, we’ll reassess potential movement toward the lower channel boundary. Until then, the structure remains bullish within the channel and price is following our path perfectly.
The Goldturn methodology continues to prove its worth, cutting through noise, filtering out the fake outs, and keeping us on the right side of the market.
Stay sharp, stay patient.
MR GOLD
GOLDVIEWFX
Gold Trade Plan – Wait for the Trap, Then Catch the Move Price broke the ascending trendline and is now heading into a key demand zone around 3387–3390. My plan is to wait for the manipulation wick into the green zone, ideally touching the trendline confluence below, then catch the bounce for a clean long setup toward 3460+. If that fails, I’m ready to flip short after the liquidity grab.
Two scenarios on the table:
1- Rejection from the demand zone → bullish continuation.
2- Fakeout bounce → trap longs → reversal drop.
Stay patient, let price come to you.
The golden storm is coming again, are you ready?Gold rebounded after falling back to 3333 in the first wave, and then rebounded to 3357 in the second wave before falling again, breaking through the previous low of 3333 and accelerating down to 3316. Currently, the short-term trend has stabilized in the 3316 area, which is also the support level for multiple rebounds in the previous period. After continuing to fall today, it has not broken through. We have arranged long orders in the 3316-3317 area in advance and have taken profits near 3331. Gold rebounded after stepping back again. Our long order plan is still in position. If the subsequent rebound breaks through the 3333 line, it is expected to further rise to the 3340-3348 area. We will try to short in this area.
In the short-term structure, the upper resistance focuses on the 3340-3348 area, and the lower support focuses on the 3310-3315 area. 3300-3305 is the watershed between the strength of long and short positions in the short term. The daily level is still under pressure as a whole, and the main idea of high altitude continues.
Gold operation strategy: short gold when it rebounds to around 3340-3348, target the 3330-3320 range.
Gold Outlook: Bullish Bias Builds🧠 Combined Market Intelligence Report
Focus Asset: XAU/USD (Gold/USD)
Current Price: $3,381.65
🌍 Macro Overview: Key Weekly Market Themes
🏦 Central Bank Policy Divergence
Federal Reserve: Held rates steady; Powell struck a more cautious tone. Seven members now forecast no cuts in 2025. Rate cut probability softened early in the week, then revived after Fed Governor Waller hinted at a possible July cut.
Swiss National Bank (SNB): Cut rates to 0.00%, surprising markets and signaling potential for negative rates if needed.
Bank of Japan (BOJ): Maintained rates at 0.50%, slowed bond tapering, signaled caution amid trade and inflation uncertainty.
ECB & BOE: Mostly neutral/dovish tones. ECB may cut in 6 months; BOE remained split.
🧩 Implication: Diverging monetary paths and policy uncertainty support demand for neutral reserve assets like gold.
⚔️ Geopolitical Risk: Israel-Iran Conflict
Markets opened bullish on gold due to de-escalation signals from Iran, but risk-off sentiment returned midweek after:
Trump’s “unconditional surrender” demand
Iran’s “irreparable damage” threat
Reports of possible U.S. strikes
By Friday, Trump hit “pause” for 2 weeks of diplomacy.
🧩 Implication: Geopolitical tension is unresolved. Gold remains a top safe-haven hedge as military conflict risk persists.
📉 Macro Data Weakness
U.S. Retail Sales: -0.9% (vs. -0.4% expected)
U.S. Industrial Production: -0.2%
Philly Fed Manufacturing: -4.0
UK Retail Sales: -2.7% m/m
Eurozone Wage Growth: 3.4% y/y (missed expectations)
Australia Jobs: -2.5k (vs. +15k expected)
🧩 Implication: Global slowdown signals strengthen gold’s appeal as a defensive and inflation-hedging asset.
📊 Technical Outlook for XAU/USD (Gold)
🔹 Current Price: $3,381.65
🔸 Key Indicators (1D)
Indicator Value Signal
RSI 55.65 Slightly bullish (>50)
Stochastic %K / %D 51.23 / 53.33 Neutral zone
Williams %R -44.18 Mid-range, no strong signal
Bollinger Mid-Band 3,381.55 Price = BB midline (balance point)
Keltner Mid-Channel 3,381.94 Matching price (consolidation)
📍 Key Price Levels
Support: $3,360 → $3,345
Resistance: $3,410 → $3,430
Breakout Point: Close above $3,410 confirms upside momentum
Breakdown Point: Close below $3,360 confirms renewed selling pressure
📈 Forecast for Gold (XAU/USD) – Next 1–5 Days
🔮 Fundamental Bias: 🔼 Mildly Bullish
Unresolved geopolitical tension = sustained safe-haven flows
Global economic softness = pressure on real yields
Mixed Fed tone, SNB cut = supportive macro backdrop for gold
📉 Technical Bias: 🔁 Neutral to Bullish
RSI above 50, price above major midlines = buyers still in control
Consolidation at key pivot level ($3,381) suggests accumulation, not exhaustion
If price breaks above $3,410 and sustains, rally toward $3,430–3,460 is likely
If price breaks below $3,360, watch for a retest of $3,345–3,330 support zone
🎯 Final XAU/USD Forecast Summary
Time Frame Direction Price Targets Confidence Risk Catalyst
1–2 Days 🔁 Sideways-to-Bullish $3,390 → $3,410 Moderate News on Fed, Trump-Iran
3–5 Days 🔼 Bullish $3,430 → $3,460 High Breakout + geopolitics
Bearish Case 🔽 If < $3,360 $3,345 → $3,330 Moderate Peace deal + strong USD
⚠️ Trade Considerations
If bullish breakout (> $3,410) → potential swing trade toward $3,460
If failed breakout (< $3,360) → reversion trade toward $3,330
Avoid aggressive positions until volatility picks up, as current setup is range-bound with breakout potential.
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Gold continues to fluctuate, and range operations are effective!Gold opened high on Monday and then fell sharply. On Tuesday, it fluctuated and corrected with a cross-yang line. On Wednesday, the overall trend was also volatile. However, after the Fed's interest rate decision was announced on Wednesday, the price of gold fell to around 3362. The low point of this decline was just supported by the 10-day moving average. From a technical point of view, the support of the 10-day moving average at 3350 has become a key point. If this support can be effectively maintained, the gold price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern; once it breaks down, the short-selling force may continue, and then it will be necessary to look at the support of the 20-day moving average near 3350. In terms of upper resistance, the 5-day moving average is currently near 3390, which will suppress the upward movement of gold prices. Further resistance depends on the gains and losses of 3405.
There is not much change in the 4-hour chart. The lower track has not opened, and the support of 3360 is strong. It is still a bullish trend. However, it is worth noting that in the continuous rebound, the Bollinger middle track suppression point has not been broken. Relatively speaking, gold is weak and volatile in the medium term. Under the trend today, if it continues to rise, we must pay attention to the gains and losses of the dense suppression point 3405. If 3405 is broken, the trend strength will come out and we can see the high point of 3430. For intraday trading, we still maintain high-altitude and low-multiple, waiting for the trend strength to break through the space, and we are bullish above the support of 3350 during the day.
Gold operation strategy: It is recommended to short at the rebound of 3385-3390, with a target of 3370-3365; gold falls back to 3350-3355 and buys, with a target of 3375-3385;
GOLD → Geopolitical risks are driving gold prices up. To ATH?FX:XAUUSD is updating its interim highs as it retests resistance at 3435 amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Economic risks are on the rise...
Gold rose 1.5% on Friday in Asian trading as investors sought refuge from escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. The price approached 7-week highs and could reach $3,500 if the conflict intensifies. The US and Israel have warned of serious consequences, while Iran has promised to respond. Geopolitics has overshadowed economic news, and markets are pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September.
Technically, the price is emerging from a local consolidation and testing a fairly important resistance level, forming a false breakout and correction. But this does not mean that the price will fall...
Resistance levels: 3425, 3435, 3461
Support levels: 3408, 3400, 3377
If gold consolidates above 3425 and continues to storm the resistance, growth may continue, and at the moment, there is a fairly high probability of a retest of the ATH. However, the ideal scenario would be a retest of the zone of interest 3408 - 3400 and the capture of liquidity before continuing growth.
Best regards, R. Linda!
