#GOLD #IDEA #GOLD #IDEA base on Higher TF Sell is looking good and now i zoom to the lower TF for more Confluence
CFDGOLD trade ideas
Gold Eyes Flight to Safety — Micro H&S Setting Up?With the U.S. entering the Iran conflict, Gold’s flight to safety narrative may be reigniting. Price recently faked a range break and snapped back inside a key trendline—potentially setting the stage. This idea anticipates one final pullback to form a micro head-and-shoulders, offering a cleaner long entry before a push to new highs. Confirmation still needed, but the structure is aligning.
This 15-minute Gold chart shows a descending channel,
This 15-minute Gold chart shows a descending channel, indicating a bearish trend. The price is currently near resistance (~$3,374–$3,384), and the chart suggests a potential rejection from this zone, leading to a sell-off toward $3,327–$3,340. Two scenarios are shown:
Primary idea: Price will reject resistance and drop.
Alternative: Small consolidation before deciding direction.
Bias: Bearish unless price breaks and holds above $3,384.
Hi! Thanks for reaching out. We can definitely help you install This isn’t just another strike — this is serious. And yeah, it’s going to hit the markets hard.
Oil is going to spike. It already is. If the Strait of Hormuz gets blocked or threatened, we could easily see prices go above $100.
Gold is going up too. It’s the safe haven when fear is real. This isn’t about technicals — it’s about capital flying to safety.
Now tech stocks… they’re going to feel it. If oil keeps climbing, inflation gets pressure, and with that, rates stay high. Nasdaq could take a hit — especially the names that are overstretched.
Defense stocks will probably fly. We’ve seen what happens with LMT, RTX, NOC in this kind of setup.
I don’t think this gets resolved in a couple of days. And if China or Russia get more involved, things could escalate fast.
This week, I’m focused on oil, gold, and defense.
Staying cautious — but not blind.
Can we look for longs on XAUUSD? my MTF POVHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair .
💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
Report – June 20, 2025EU–US Trade Dynamics: Strategic Delay, Political Risk, and Economic Recalibration
The European Union is now pivoting toward a “UK-style” deal with the United States, marking a key shift in strategy as the July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline imposed by President Trump looms. At stake is a potential escalation of U.S. tariffs from 10% to 50% on EU goods, including wine, whiskey, cars, and steel — products vital to EU member states’ exports.
Senior German and Commission officials now favor deferring a full trade deal in favor of a staged agreement, keeping some tariffs in place while avoiding immediate retaliation. This aligns with internal division within the EU: France favors reciprocal retaliation, while Italy and Hungary prefer maintaining dialogue to avoid a trade war.
From a macro perspective, the EU appears willing to accept sectoral trade-offs and quota adjustments, including concessions in sensitive areas like autos and agricultural exports. The €198 billion EU goods surplus with the U.S. remains a political flashpoint, with Brussels offering increased LNG and defense purchases to placate the U.S.
Market Implications:
Avoid positioning in European exporters heavily exposed to U.S. retaliatory risk (autos, wine, luxury).
Monitor USD/EUR, as any tariff escalation would hurt the euro short-term.
Watch defense and LNG stocks for inflows tied to strategic purchases.
-----------------------------
SNB Rate Cut to 0%: FX Stabilization Over Stimulus
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its policy rate to 0.00%, citing deflationary pressures and a surging franc, which is up 10% YTD versus the U.S. dollar. Swiss CPI came in at -0.1% YoY in May, a rare and politically sensitive contraction.
The SNB stopped short of reintroducing negative rates but left the door open if the deflationary impulse persists. Traders had priced in a deeper cut, prompting a franc rally on the decision and a 10Y yield rebound to -0.09%.
Chair Martin Schlegel emphasized caution, citing saver impact and pension fund distortions as constraints on policy innovation. The SNB’s stance is now materially diverging from the Fed’s hawkish hold and the BoE’s slow easing path.
Market Implications:
CHF strength likely capped unless further easing surprises.
Short Swiss sovereigns (2–5Y) could be tactical shorts if inflation turns up.
Supports EUR/CHF tactical longs as the ECB eyes dovish alignment.
----------------------------
Biofuels Surge: Strategic Rotation From Crude Amid Iran–Israel Escalation
Biofuel feedstocks, especially soybean oil (+11%) and palm oil (+6%) are spiking amid the Israel–Iran conflict, rising Brent prices, and U.S. political support for agricultural energy substitutes. Trump’s EPA proposal calls for a 67% increase in biomass diesel mandates, benefiting U.S. farmers and biofuel refiners.
This proposal, combined with reduced compliance credit access for foreign feedstocks, advantages domestic production over imports (notably Canadian rapeseed and Chinese used oil). It also aligns with a swing-state election strategy, as soybean growers in Iowa remain key to Trump’s base.
Market Implications:
Long soy/palm oil and related ETFs (e.g., SOYB).
Long U.S. agricultural input and biofuel refiners (ADM, BG, REGI).
Monitor Brent–biofuel spread for continued divergence on geopolitical headlines.
----------------------
Tanker Markets Signal Energy Supply Risk Premium
Rates to charter oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles ~20% of the world’s seaborne oil have more than doubled since Israel’s attack on Iran. VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates from the Gulf to China rose from $19,998 to $47,609/day, far outpacing the broader 12% rise in global tanker indices.
Shipping firms are hesitant to transit the strait, with many demanding “risk premiums” or re-routing. Compounding the issue, Iran’s sanctioned “dark fleet” may now be avoided altogether, forcing buyers to seek compliant vessels, tightening supply.
A reported collision between Frontline’s Front Eagle and a dark fleet tanker underscored the operational risks in this vital corridor. Traders are increasingly pricing in oil flow bottlenecks, which, if realized, could push Brent well above $85–90/bbl.
Implications:
Long tanker stocks (e.g., Frontline, Euronav) on rising charter rates.
Risk-off hedges in Brent futures, oil volatility, and Gulf-exposed equities.
Long pipeline or refined product ETFs in event of sustained disruption.
---------------------------------
U.S. Steel “Golden Share”: Strategic M&A Gets Political
The Trump administration’s decision to insert a “golden share” into Nippon Steel’s $14.9B acquisition of U.S. Steel sets a critical precedent. The U.S. now retains veto rights over major operational decisions without owning equity, a move unseen since Cold War-era defense deals.
While framed as a one-off, lawyers and multinationals are sounding the alarm. The “golden share” gives the government leverage over plant closures, sourcing policy, and capital expenditures, highly unusual for an open market economy.
Investors are worried this introduces deal uncertainty, foreign policy risk, and precedent creep into future M&A, particularly in critical sectors (defense, semiconductors, energy).
Implications:
Watch CFIUS-sensitive sectors: materials, semis, strategic tech.
Increased political risk premium for inbound foreign investment.
Traders may discount foreign bids or value U.S. corporates at a control-adjusted premium.
----------------------------------
FSB Flags Commercial Real Estate Systemic Risks
The Financial Stability Board (FSB) released a report warning of hidden fragility in the $12 trillion global commercial real estate market, citing:
12.6% delinquency rates in U.S. office CMBS
Debt-to-assets ratios >45%
High leverage in REITs and property funds across U.S., Canada, Germany, and Singapore
FSB warned of liquidity mismatches in property funds, growing non-performing loans at banks, and “complex interlinkages” between banks and shadow real estate lenders.
The Board’s message is clear: CRE remains a slow-burning systemic threat, and a shock such as a rate spike, recession, or refinancing wall, could catalyze contagion.
Implications:
Bearish CRE-focused REITs (office, retail), neutral industrial.
Long protection via CMBS CDS indexes or synthetic shorts.
Monitor banking exposure (esp. regional U.S., EU banks with high real estate leverage).
-----------------------------------
Microsoft–OpenAI: Strategic AI Rift Emerging
Microsoft may walk away from renegotiations with OpenAI over its transition to a for-profit structure. Discussions have stalled over equity allocation (debated range: 20–49%), revenue rights, and infrastructure priorities.
Microsoft currently enjoys:
20% rev share up to $92B
Exclusive rights to Azure deployment
Priority IP access before AGI
However, Microsoft’s growing skepticism and pivot toward xAI’s Grok model indicates a broader strategic hedge against OpenAI dominance. Microsoft believes AI models will become commoditized, and value will shift to apps and agents.
OpenAI, meanwhile, risks violating investor terms if it fails to convert. A delay could cause SoftBank to claw back up to $10B in committed capital.
Implications:
Monitor MSFT valuation for AI execution risk.
Long AI infra (NVDA, AMD) vs. short high-burn LLM firms if OpenAI deal stalls.
OpenAI IPO prospects now depend on rapid renegotiation or new lead investors.
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
Following up on last week’s chart update, we saw another perfect test of the channel top, right in line with our Goldturn Channel expectations. The new weekly candle completed the channel top challenge with precision.
Our weekly chart idea is now playing out perfectly. We continued to get strong support above 3281, followed by another hit onto the 3387 channel top. But this time, we got something new: a body close above 3387, which confirms the gap to 3482 as active. We’ll now look for that 3482 target to be hit, ascending inline with the channel top.
Any rejection around these upper levels will likely see price retrace to find support at lower Goldturn levels. These are opportunities we’ll be watching closely to buy back in.
Price action remains well-contained between 3281 and 3387, but with that recent close above 3387, we’re now shifting focus toward higher expansion. The structure is rising, and the channel is guiding price beautifully, offering more room for smart, calculated positioning.
As long as we hold above the half-line and especially above 3281, we stay in buy-the-dip mode, favouring long setups from intraday Goldturn zones for quick 20–40 pip scalps or more extended swing entries when structure permits.
Should we see a failure to maintain above 3387 or a close back below 3281, we’ll reassess potential movement toward the lower channel boundary. Until then, the structure remains bullish within the channel and price is following our path perfectly.
The Goldturn methodology continues to prove its worth, cutting through noise, filtering out the fake outs, and keeping us on the right side of the market.
Stay sharp, stay patient.
MR GOLD
GOLDVIEWFX
GOLD H4 Update: Bulls will target 3600/3750 USD Market Update🏆 Gold Market Mid-Term Update (June 16, 2025)
📊 Price & Technical Outlook
Current Spot Price: around $3,414
Technical Setup
* Gold consolidating above major support at \~\$3,180–3,200
* Testing resistance at \~\$3,380–3,400; breakout could push toward \$3,600
* Recent price action considered a healthy consolidation with upside potential
🏆 Bull Market Overview
* Pullback likely complete; supported by strong geopolitical and macro tailwinds
* Key price levels: \$3,000 / \$3,200 / \$3,400 (resistance near \$3,400)
* Bullish target: \$3,600, with further upside possible if momentum holds
* Short-term dips remain buying opportunities—“buy the dip” remains favored
⭐ Recommended Strategy
BUY/HOLD: Continue to accumulate on dips, using \$3,200–3,300 as entry zones
Target: Maintain bull target at \$3,600, with breakout opportunity above \$3,400
🏦 Macro & Market Drivers
Fed & Central Bank Outlook
* Investors positioning for possible Fed rate cuts later this year, likely totaling around 75 bps by end of 2025
* Ongoing dollar weakness supports gold
Geopolitical Tensions
* Middle East unrest, U.S.–Iran dynamics, and global evacuations are fueling safe-haven demand for gold
* Continued volatility in global hotspots likely to keep gold elevated
Risk Appetite & Market Behavior
* Both stocks and gold are climbing—an unusual “optimism + fear” scenario
* Central banks, especially in China, India, and Turkey, have been strong gold buyers in 2025
* Speculative positions in gold futures remain high
U.S.–China & Trade Tariffs
* Unresolved U.S.–China tariffs and tensions continue to support gold
* Any easing in trade friction could temper gold’s advance
📰 Latest Market Sentiment
* Wall Street remains bullish on gold for the upcoming week, though some caution persists ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting
* Macro environment is seen as supportive for gold and other precious metals
* Gold’s rally is positively influencing the broader precious metals market
🌏 Demand Themes
* **Asian Buyers**: China may relax gold import quotas to manage currency, while India demand remains strong though can be seasonally slower
* **Central Banks**: Over 240 tonnes of gold added in Q1 by central banks, with China and India as top buyers
⚠️ Risks & Watchpoints
* Fed surprises: A more hawkish tone at the next meeting could push gold back toward \$3,200–3,300
* Geopolitical breakthroughs: Any stable resolutions could reduce safe-haven demand
* Large speculative position unwinds could create short-term volatility
🔎 Mid-Term Outlook Summary
| Scenario | Support | Resistance | Catalysts |
| --------- | ------------- | ---------- | ----------------------------------- |
| Base case | \$3,200–3,300 | \$3,400 | Rate cut expectations + geopolitics |
| Bull case | Above \$3,400 | \$3,600+ | Escalating risk, dovish Fed |
| Bear case | Below \$3,200 | — | Hawkish Fed, easing global tensions |
✔️ Final Take
* Technical and fundamental momentum supports a continued bull phase with key target at \$3,600
* Best strategy: accumulate on dips between \$3,200–3,300
* Key factors to watch: Fed’s next move (June 17), Middle East developments, U.S.–China trade actions, central bank buying
6/25 Gold Analysis and Trading ViewGood morning, everyone!
Gold experienced a sharp decline yesterday. Technically, the conditions for a rebound are in place, but since a solid bottom structure has yet to form, a retest to the downside is likely during today’s session.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance zone: 3336–3348
Support zones: Primary support at 3313–3303, with additional support around 3296–3282
Today’s overall strategy remains buying on dips as the primary approach, with short opportunities near resistance as a secondary option.
Key scenario to monitor:
If the price drops to around 3280 but fails to rebound toward 3336, and the daily close ends below 3300, then the buy-on-dip strategy will likely continue into tomorrow.
GOLD SETUPGold setup as it switches price delivery from a bullish program to a bearish program with a good trade entry on the touch of the order block.
GOLD 4H: not all that glitters is bullish...The 4H chart shows a clean descending triangle breakdown. Price failed to reclaim the trendline and was rejected under both MA50 and MA200. The bounce into 3325–3340 was absorbed — classic liquidity sweep and fade. Volume confirms bearish control.
Technically, the breakdown below 3320 opens the way toward $3293 (1.0 Fibo), $3250 (1.272 extension), and final target at $3195 (1.618), where buyers might step in. RSI supports the continuation without signs of reversal. Structure broke — and the market is telling us where it's heading.
Tactical plan:
— Entry at market or on a retest of $3325–3335
— Targets: $3293 → $3250 → $3195
— Stop: above $3340 (above MA50 and broken trendline)
When gold looks shiny, smart traders look deeper. This breakout isn’t golden — it’s a trap for late bulls.
#GOLD Buy 3339.79#GOLD Buy 3339.79
SL 3333.79
TP 3341.79
TP 3349.79
TP 3363.79
Trade at your own risk
Protect your capital
The Wizard 🧙♂️ SWFX
Ready, Steady...?Gold has consolidated the past few weeks and has now bounced from solid support.
The current wave 4 looks complete and should now be followed by a strong upward move in wave 5, wave 5's in the metals are the strongest...expect a move towards $4000 coming.
Your chance to get on board early and ride this bull run again!
Appreciate a thumbs up, good trading and God Bless you all!
"Gold Vault Breach! XAU/USD Heist Plan in Motion"🏴☠️💰 XAU/USD Gold Heist Blueprint 💰🏴☠️
“The Vault’s Open… Time to Load Up!”
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Dear Money Makers & Market Robbers 🤑💰💸✈️
Get ready to execute the Golden Robbery with style and precision! Based on our 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥 using both technical & fundamental weapons, we’ve decoded the latest gold vault password: XAU/USD (Gold vs USD) is showing bullish bias!
🎯 Heist Instructions:
📈 Entry Point –
“The vault is wide open!”
Enter long anytime — but for the sharp shooters, place buy limits on the most recent 15/30min swing lows or pullback zones for a stealthier entry. Let the retracement pull the guards away 😏🔐
🛑 Stop Loss –
🔒 Set your Thief SL just below recent swing lows on the 4H timeframe (around 3310.0).
🔧 Adjust based on risk tolerance, lot size, and number of open trades — every heist has its escape plan!
🏁 Target Zone –
🎯 Aim for 3395.0 — or vanish before the cops show up!
Trail the stop as you go and don’t get greedy — wealth is preserved when exits are clean! 🏃♂️💨
🧲 Scalper's Advisory:
Only steal on the Long Side! Bulls are funding this operation.
💼 Big pockets? Dive in.
💳 Small stack? Swing with the pros & follow the plan.
🎯 Use Trailing SL to keep the loot safe.
📊 Market Insight – Why We Rob Gold Now?
XAU/USD shows bullish momentum 🐂 backed by:
Macro & Fundamental Data 🧠
Geopolitical & Intermarket Trends 🌍
COT Reports & Sentimental Outlook 💼
Dollar Weakness + Safe Haven Flow 💸
📚 Always cross-check the news wires & reports to validate the path! Fundamentals are the lockpick tools behind every breakout! 🔓📈
⚠️ Stealth Warnings:
📆 News Events = Increased Surveillance!
🚫 No new entries during high-volatility news drops.
🛡 Use Trailing SL on live trades to secure the bag.
💖 Wanna Support Our Heist Style?
Smash that 🚀 BOOST BUTTON 🚀
It fuels our Thief Army and helps you & your crew loot the market with confidence and flair!
Every day’s a new caper — follow the plan, manage your risk, and stay outta jail! 🏆💪🤝🎉
🔐 See you in the next Robbery Blueprint — Stay Locked & Loaded!
🐱👤💼📈💣💸
Gold fluctuated slightly, retreating to low-multiple operations
📌 Gold news
During the North American trading session on Wednesday, gold prices remained stable, rising by more than 0.30% as easing tensions between Israel and Iran boosted risk sentiment. Meanwhile, disappointing US housing data may prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to take action in the future. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tough stance has limited further upside for gold.
📊Comment analysis
Gold fluctuated in a small range yesterday, and the daily line closed with a positive cross star.
Daily support is around 3327-3324, and you can go long if you touch it.
Daily resistance is around 3368, and you can go short if you touch it.
If the market goes down to yesterday's low, the bottom continues to look near this week's low, and I am more inclined to be bullish
💰Gold operation strategy
If gold is close to 3327, you can go long, with a target of 3345.
Look for opportunities to short around 3350-3360, with a target around 3330.
I hope Labaron's article can help you with your investment. If you don't understand something, you can find me. I am not only a mentor, but also a friend worth making in your life.
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
gold on short bullish#XAUUSD on bullish reverse till 3340 for sell.
Buy on 2 times breakout above 3330, target 3340, SL 3325 short.
Above 3340 sell, target 3305, SL 3349
Below 3320 have bearish range, we watch the price closely to sell till 3315-3305.
XAU/USD 25 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Following previous high, and printing of bearish CHoCH, price has pulled back to an M15 supply zone, where we are currently seeing a reaction. Therefore, I shall now confirm internal high.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD GOLD 45 MINUTR CHART PATTERN Here's a clear summary of your XAU/USD (Gold) 45-Minute Buy Trade Setup:
---
✅ Trade Type: Buy
⏱ Timeframe: 45 Minutes
📍 Entry Point: 3322.9
---
🎯 Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 3345
TP2: 3374
TP3: 3400
---
🛑 Stop Loss: 3307
---
📈 Risk/Reward Snapshot:
Risk (Entry to SL): 3322.9 – 3307 = 15.9 points
TP1 R:R: (3345 – 3322.9) / 15.9 = ~1.39
TP2 R:R: (3374 – 3322.9) / 15.9 = ~3.22
TP3 R:R: (3400 – 3322.9) / 15.9 = ~4.85
XAUUSD – Is Gold Gearing Up for the Next Leg Higher?🌐 Macro Outlook – Dovish Fed Tone Boosts Gold Appeal
Gold (XAUUSD) is showing renewed strength following Fed Chair Powell’s testimony. While he maintained a cautious stance, he acknowledged that tariff-related inflation is easing. Markets interpreted this as a sign that rate cuts may come sooner – potentially as early as July.
📉 Lower rate expectations → Reduced holding cost for gold → Increased investor interest.
As a non-yielding safe haven, gold tends to benefit when real yields decline.
🏛️ Fed Policy Outlook – The Tone Is Evolving
🔹 Powell’s Message: Data-driven and flexible, signalling a Fed willing to respond if inflation continues to cool.
🔹 Rate Cut Timing: While September remains the base case, markets are now pricing in a potential July move. CME FedWatch shows a 70.1% chance of rates falling to 4.00–4.25% by September.
💡 This subtle repricing adds momentum to the bullish gold thesis. Current price consolidation near $3,300–$3,320 may reflect smart money positioning for an upside break.
💰 Capital Flow Dynamics – Gold vs. USD
Gold and USD both act as safe havens, but current flows suggest a rotation:
🔄 If Powell maintains a dovish tone:
▪ USD weakens as yields fall
▪ Gold sees renewed inflows amid better risk-reward and geopolitical risks
This is already evident in gold’s resilience at recent highs.
📊 Technical View (H4/M30) – Bullish Momentum Building
Gold has broken out of a falling channel and is now consolidating in a mild ascending structure. This points towards a potential continuation move.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
🟢 Buy Zones (Support):
$3,302 – $3,311 → Strong demand zone
$3,286 → Key fallback level if lower support is tested
🔴 Sell Zones (Resistance):
$3,352 – $3,371 → Major resistance, aligned with 0.5 & 0.618 Fib levels
$3,391 – $3,395 → Breakout here = bullish confirmation for longer-term targets
📈 EMA Structure (13, 34, 89, 200):
Price is trading above short-term EMAs → Positive near-term bias
Longer EMAs are converging → Potential Golden Cross setup
🎯 Trade Setups:
🟢 Swing Buy Idea:
Entry: $3,286 – $3,284
Stop Loss: $3,280
Targets: $3,290 → $3,294 → $3,298 → $3,302 → $3,306 → $3,310 → $3,315 → $3,320
🟢 Scalp Buy:
Entry: $3,302 – $3,300
SL: $3,295
TP: $3,306 → $3,310 → $3,314 → $3,318 → $3,322 → $3,326 → $3,330
🔴 Sell Zone 1:
Area: $3,353 – $3,355
SL: $3,360
TP: $3,350 → $3,346 → $3,340 → $3,335 → $3,330 → $3,320
🔴 Sell Zone 2:
Area: $3,372 – $3,374
SL: $3,378
TP: $3,370 → $3,366 → $3,362 → $3,358 → $3,354 → $3,350
⚠️ Keep an Eye On:
Fed Speeches: Any comment on inflation or rate direction could cause rapid sentiment shifts
Geopolitical Flashpoints: Ongoing or new tensions = fuel for gold upside
📌 Final Take:
Gold is showing early signs of bullish continuation ahead of the July FOMC. Dovish signals, softer inflation, and global uncertainty provide a solid backdrop. Smart entries near key zones and disciplined risk will be essential as we approach decision time.
XAUUSDXAUUSD its on uptrend for the moment in daily, even if the price dropped a little, there is alot of room to keep pushinhg to the upside.
H4/H1 didn't give no real direction fot the moment.
Sit in your hands guys.
Will the gold bearish trend continue?
💡Message Strategy
The gold market is facing a complex game of long and short factors in the near future. On the one hand, US President Trump announced that Iran and Israel had reached a "comprehensive ceasefire", and the market's risk aversion demand plummeted, and gold was under obvious short-term pressure. However, according to Reuters, Israel still has small-scale military operations, which has led to differences in the market's optimism about the situation in the Middle East, and the downward space of gold is temporarily limited.
On the other hand, US economic data is mixed. In June, the S&P global manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 52, the service industry PMI fell slightly to 53.1, and the composite PMI fell slightly to 52.8, suggesting that the momentum of economic expansion has slowed down marginally. More importantly, Fed officials have released dovish signals one after another. Fed Governor Bowman expressed concern about labor market risks and supported interest rate cuts this year, echoing Governor Waller's expectations of a rate cut in July. This adjustment in monetary policy expectations has led to a weakening of the US dollar, providing some support for gold prices.
📊Technical aspects
1. Pay attention to the defensive position at the weekly level. As time goes by, this position is now in the 3316-3315 area. After breaking 3333 at noon, it accelerated to reach here, so pay attention to the gains and losses here in the future, so as to prepare for the next space switch
2. The daily line has been defending the lifeline for nearly a month. The current lifeline position is 3355. No matter how it pierces in the previous process, the final closing line must return to the top of the lifeline, thus becoming a support area
This means that today's closing is very critical. It can be closed below the lifeline, and then switch space downward to enter the area from the lifeline to the lower track 3355-3280
3. The four-hour pattern opens downward. Yesterday, the resistance of the upper track of the pattern was determined twice, and then it began to fall continuously, fell back to the lifeline, and then fell below the lower track of the pattern. Now it is further down and breaking the low
Then, keeping high is the key, breaking low is the focus. The previous starting and falling acceleration points are 3357 area, 3370, and finally 3388-3390.
Today's high point is 3370 area. The resistance range of 3357 is determined at noon. The pattern opens downward. Keep high and break low to see acceleration. After breaking the high point, it returns to sweeping.
4. The double lines of the hourly chart are glued together to form a pressure area. The interval of 3355-3370 just coincides with the two resistances above. Use this as suppression to switch space downward.
5. The large channel cooperates with the small channel. The price falls below the lower track position of the large channel and begins to switch space further downward. The top and bottom conversion position is 3340, and the final acceleration starting point is 3348.
Use this as suppression, and look down to the weekly defense line area of 3316-3315.
If it falls below, the next support will focus on the 3300 mark. If it breaks 3300 again, the next position is 3280
💰Strategy Package
Short Position：3348-3354，SL：3375，Target: 3300-3310
Long Position:3280-3290，SL：3260，Target: 3340
Important support level for gold price: 3305-3315Important support level for gold price: 3305-3315
Most people in the market were originally bullish. After all, the US sneak attack on Iran did cause tension, but the market unexpectedly weakened and fell.
Intraday trading:
The macro shock structure is shown in Figure 4h:
Focus on the fluctuations in the range of 3300-3400 US dollars.
From the hourly line observation: the gold price may currently enter the flag adjustment stage.
Short-term resistance is: 3368, followed by the high point of 3393, and the overall trend is still facing short-selling pressure.
Due to the recent large fluctuations in gold prices, market sentiment will not subside quickly.
It is necessary to pay attention to whether it can stand on the first key position of 3368 today.
After a short-term rapid decline, it is not advisable to directly chase short positions and increase positions, and it is necessary to wait and see appropriately.
Although yesterday's trading was difficult, the current market has sent a clear signal:
The callback is an opportunity to continue shorting!
Today's gold operation strategy recommends shorting at high levels and long at low levels.
Upper pressure range: 3368-3388;
Lower support range: 3330-3300;
If it falls below $3350, it may fall to $3300.
Low price long range: 3305-3315, stop loss range: 3300-3295
High price short range: 3368-3380, stop loss range: 3388-3395
