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CFDGOLD trade ideas

Thoughts before the Golden Decision 💡Message Strategy Gold prices continued to fluctuate at high levels this week, lacking a clear direction. The Federal Reserve is about to announce its June interest rate decision. Although the market generally expects that the interest rate will remain unchanged this time, the key focus lies in the update of the dot plot and Powell's wording in the press conference. The market is currently betting that a rate cut cycle may begin in September, mainly based on a series of weak US economic data released recently. US retail sales fell 0.9% month-on-month in May, significantly lower than the market's expectation of -0.7%, while industrial output also unexpectedly shrank by 0.2%, indicating that the US economic momentum has slowed down. At the same time, the US CPI data in May cooled down across the board, with both the annual rate and the core annual rate lower than expected, which further strengthened the market's expectations for a rate cut in September. Against this background, the US dollar fell from its high on Tuesday, boosting the short-term decline in gold prices. In terms of geopolitical situation, according to Reuters, the six-day conflict between Israel and Iran showed no signs of cooling down. US President Trump publicly put pressure on Iran and released remarks that he would impose tariffs on the pharmaceutical industry. Coupled with the uncertainty of the trade outlook, the market's risk aversion sentiment has been strengthened, which will help gold maintain a high level. 📊Technical aspects From the daily chart, the gold price has been running between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands since late May. The Bollinger Bands have gradually converged, suggesting that volatility has decreased and the market is on the eve of a change. The current gold price is hovering between the middle track of the Bollinger Bands at $3,322.96 and the upper track at $3,446.14, in a typical oscillating pattern. In terms of MACD indicators, the current bar chart is close to the zero axis, and the DIFF line and the DEA line are in a state of convergence, and no effective golden cross or dead cross is formed, reflecting that the current situation is a typical consolidation market. RSI remains near 56, indicating that the market is not obviously overbought or oversold, and the short-term momentum is neutral. Based on the above judgment and analysis, it is believed that gold is currently at a critical node. If it breaks through the 3400-line resistance band and is accompanied by a large volume, it will be expected to challenge the high of $3450. On the contrary, if it falls below the $3360 support, it may trigger a short-term adjustment, with the target pointing to the lower track of the Bollinger band at $3200. At present, the overall adjustment of gold is supported by the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the bulls are relatively strong. Long positions are deployed before the decision. 💰 Strategy Package Long Position:3380-3385，SL：3370 First target: 3400, second target: 3450
TVC:GOLDLong
by TheodoreSilas
XAU/USD,4h chart pattern.Im looking to buy Gold at 3432 with a target of 3500. Here's a quick analysis and trade plan for this idea: --- 🟡 Gold Trade Setup Buy Entry: 3432 Target (Take Profit): 3500 Potential Gain: 68 points Suggested Stop Loss: Around 3400 (for a 1:2 risk/reward ratio) --- 📊 Things to Consider: 1. Trend: Ensure the current market trend supports a bullish move. Look for higher lows and higher highs. 2. Support at 3432: Is this a strong support level? If it’s holding multiple times, it can be a good entry. 3. Resistance at 3500: This could be a psychological or historical resistance. Be ready for partial profit booking near it. 4. News & Events: Watch for U.S. economic data or Fed comments that could impact gold volatility. 5. Risk Management: Don’t risk more than 1-2% of your capital on this trade. --- Would you like a technical chart setup or analysis based on current market conditions to support this trade idea?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RSI_Trading_point
15
The Fed’s decision may guide the direction of gold 💡Message Strategy Gold prices fell more than 1% as traders locked in profits after hitting an 8-week high, with attention turning to the Fed's policy decision and diplomatic signals from Iran. The move puts gold on track to form a bearish closing price reversal pattern, suggesting further consolidation if no new safe-haven demand emerges. Safe-haven demand stagnates as Israel-Iran tensions ease Geopolitical risks from the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict have been one of the key drivers of gold's recent gains. However, as reports emerged that Iran was willing to restart nuclear talks through an Arab intermediary, market reaction became muted. These developments led to a more than 3% drop in crude oil prices and eased inflation concerns. Despite the continued tensions in the Middle East, the change still limited further gains for gold. U.S. Treasury yields were almost flat on the day, reflecting a decline in the market's urgent demand for traditional safe-haven assets. A weaker dollar failed to support gold's gains The U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell to 97.685, just above last week's multi-year low. Bearish sentiment persists, and new short positions may curb any rebound. Gold's failure to rise despite a weaker dollar indicates overall hesitation in the market. Analysts pointed out that the lack of safe-haven inflows into the dollar and U.S. Treasuries highlights that traders are more focused on upcoming central bank guidance than geopolitical factors. Fed outlook will dominate short-term price action Traders are now awaiting the Fed’s decision on Wednesday, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged, but forward guidance will be key. Gold could face new pressure if Fed Chairman Powell turns hawkish or suggests that interest rates will remain high for a long time. Any signs of policy normalization could boost the dollar and weaken gold’s appeal. However, a dovish tone or concerns about the persistence of inflation could strengthen support for gold near technical key levels. Gold price forecast: If the $3310 range support is effective, the bullish trend remains 📊Technical aspects From a technical perspective, gold is testing a key support area. A drop to around $3,380 could trigger new buying; if this level is lost, it will further test the $3,350 support level. On the upside, resistance is close to $3,450, and if bullish momentum resumes, the all-time high of $3,500.20 is still possible. For now, the forecast maintains a cautiously bullish tone, provided that the $3,310 support level remains solid and the Fed avoids turning hawkish. 💰 Strategy Package Long Position:3375-3380 Short Position:3410-3420
TVC:GOLD
by TheodoreSilas
2
XAUUSD Decline could move downsideXAUUSD Gold Price Analysis Gold continues to face downside pressure amid ongoing sell-offs. After pulling back from recent highs, Gold is now approaching the 3400 level. However, selling pressure remains strong, especially following a weak rebound from the 3377 area, which signals limited buyer interest at current levels. Key Points Support Zone 3365/ 3340 Resistance zone 3400 / 3410 The US Dollar is gaining strength as a safe-haven asset, which is holding back Gold’s upward momentum. This shift in sentiment is driven by increasing caution in the markets ahead of key macroeconomic events: Ps Support with like and comments for more better analysis share with you.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MrMartin_11
Gold within known rangeTechnical analysis: Descending Channel on Hourly 4 chart was discontinued as there was an attempt on the same chart to develop Ascending Channel and extend the Intra-day’s relief rally above #3,402.80 benchmark. My action plan remains intact as I will continue operating with Scalp Sell and Buying orders as long as #3,362.80 - #3,402.80 zone holds (so far it hasn't been crossed again to the upside or downside) and reversal towards #3,417.80 Resistance in extension if #3,402.80 benchmark gets invalidated. Consider the Lower High’s Upper zone test on the Daily chart’s scale, while Hourly 4 chart turned Bearish on my key indicators sessions ago. As expected, yesterday's session Daily candle closed below the #3,395.80 Resistance, widely above both of the Daily chart’s MA’s, turning flat for the session (isolated within Neutral rectangle however). That is a strong indication that the market is attempting to Price the Bottom here (temporary or not), which just so happens to be a Lower High's Lower zone within Daily chart’s Ascending Channel. It is no surprise that today's Hourly 4 chart’s candle is attempting to engage Bearish sequence so far and since its on Bearish Technicals (invalidated Ascending Channel), I consider it the most optimal re-Buy entry for a Short-term recovery back towards #3,288.80 - #3,392.80 Resistance belt or above (representing last week’s High’s). My position: Even though I mentioned remaining on sidelines, I used #3,388.80 - #3,392.80 as an excellent re-Buy zone and closed my set of Scalping orders within #3,393.80 - #3,398.80 and remained off for the session. It is indeed clash of Bearish Technicals and War news (Fundamentally Bullish) as I will keep my Trading activity to minimum, protecting my capital for now.
TVC:GOLDLong
by goldenBear88
Gold-----Sell near 3405, target 3390-3360Gold market analysis: Yesterday's daily line closed with a big negative line, which was basically a day to kill the buying. Today's idea is to sell in the short term. The daily and weekly trends have not yet turned to selling. Although the daily line closed with a big negative line yesterday, its shape and indicators have not completely turned to selling. There is still motivation to buy in the later stage. In addition, Iran and Israel are still fighting. It is still difficult to see a deep decline in the short term. We estimate that today's Asian session will rebound slightly and then fall. If today's daily line continues to fall again, it may enter a new short-term selling mode. We are just a follower. We follow the short-term. If the short-term trend is bearish, we will rebound and sell. The daily line closes the negative Asian session and waits for the opportunity to sell. In the Asian session, we pay attention to the suppression of the 3410 position. It is the suppression position of the shape, the suppression position of the 1-hour moving average, the central axis position of yesterday's big drop, and the suppression position of the daily line. If the Asian session stands on 3410, it may bring a new technical rise in buying. After all, the shape of the daily line is still buying. Secondly, if it breaks 3382, it can continue to sell it with a small rebound. 3405 is also a suppression, and it is also considered to sell when it is close. Pressure 3405 and 3410, support 3282, the strength and weakness dividing line 3400. Fundamental analysis: Yesterday, Iran and Israel started bombing each other again, and the situation began to escalate. Operation suggestion Gold-----Sell near 3405, target 3390-3360
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by NuggetsWarriors
4
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Wednesday, 18th June 2024)Asian + London Session Bias: No Bias USD News(Red Folder): -Unemployment Claims -Federal Funds Rate -FOMC Statement -FOMC Economic Projections Notes: - Uncertainty on geopolitical tension - No exact bias, waiting for FOMC statement for indication - Potential BUY/SELL if there's confirmation on lower timeframe - Pivot point: 3440,3350 Disclaimer: This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by HM_fxtrading
GOLD (XAUUSD) SELL SETUP – Triple Top Rejection Confirmed? Gold is currently testing a strong supply zone near the $3,450 resistance area for the third time. Each test has been followed by sharp rejections, forming a potential triple top pattern, which is a classic bearish reversal signal. 🔵 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: $3,450 – Strong supply zone (highlighted blue zone) Mid Support: $3,032 – Previous structure support & demand Major Demand: $2,647 – Long-term demand zone (orange) 🔻 Bearish Signals: Price failed to break above the $3,450 supply zone Strong bearish wick and rejection candle Lower highs on RSI/MACD (not shown but worth noting) 📌 Potential Trade Idea: Entry: Near $3,400–$3,450 zone Target 1: $3,032 (mid-term support) Target 2: $2,647 (long-term demand) SL: Above $3,470 (clear invalidation) 🗓️ As we move toward July, a break below $3,300 could trigger momentum selling down to $3,000 and even $2,647. 💬 What’s your bias on gold this week? Are we heading for a major correction or another bounce? #Gold #XAUUSD #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #TripleTop #BearishSetup #SmartMoney #PriceAction #TradingView #LuxAlgo #SwingTrade #Commodities
FX:XAUUSDShort
by FrankFx14
Will ASIA favor BULLS or BEARS?Two “if-this-then-that” scenarios If price pushes above the recent swing high (~3 430–3 435) → Look for a move toward the 50% retracement zone at 3 415–3 416 (our next upside target). If price drops below the recent swing low (~3 356–3 357) → It’ll likely slide down to the 21-day EMA at 3 342, which has acted like a magnet/bounce area. Why the 21-day EMA matters It’s sloping up beneath price (green trendline), so dips into it often spark fresh buying. A buy-limit order around 3 342 gives you a low-risk entry with the trend still intact. Overall bias As long as gold stays above that rising trendline/21 EMA, the bulls remain in control. Break the swing high → more upside. Break the swing low → deeper pullback into support.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by artschweizch
GOLD - Selling opportunity on the horizonLooking at gold. We have a nice bearish continuation orderflow on the 15min TF. We have a nice potential inducement level of liquidity that we are more than likely to take before moving lower. This is a reduced risk entry due to where we are on the higher TF as we are pulling into a potential demand zone on the higher timeframe. ITS REALLY IMPORTANT to remember where we are in terms of structure and as we well know Gold doesn't tend to fall for to long as it remains bullish the majority of the time. so in regards to the HTF like I mentioned above we are still bullish so we are expecting a reversal for the longer term at some point in the near future so this could be a case of get what we can from the market and then look for our LTF orderflow to switch Bullish before then looking for them long entries
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BenFxLDN
Patience Before the Break: Gold Chart Signals Rally Toward 3,450 Technical Breakdown of the Chart Key Concepts Used: BOS (Break of Structure): Indicates a confirmed bullish break in market structure (around June 13). MSS (Market Structure Shift): Marks a transition from bullish to bearish structure, which aligns with the swing high on June 14. BSL (Buy-side Liquidity): Liquidity targets marked above recent highs (~3,420 and ~3,450). Turtle Soup Setup: A classic fakeout reversal pattern, suggesting a stop-hunt below recent lows before a bullish move. $$$: Liquidity Pool: Shows accumulation below before a breakout upward. Bullish Case as Implied by the Chart The chart suggests: A liquidity sweep occurred at the recent low ("turtle soup"). Price is now rebounding from a demand zone, supported by bullish order flow. If structure holds, price may: Break above the minor high at ~3,410–3,420 (first BSL). Continue upward toward ~3,450+ (second BSL), potentially reclaiming full bullish momentum. Key Levels to Watch: Zone Price Range Type Demand 3,380–3,388 Support Zone Target 1 ~3,420 Buy-side Liquidity Target 2 ~3,450 Final BSL Target If price breaks below the 3,380 zone with momentum, the bullish thesis weakens. Summary: Short-Term Trend: Bullish if support holds. Liquidity Grab Complete: Signs of a reversal from turtle soup setup. Upside Targets: 3,420 and 3,450. Invalidation: Break and close below ~3,380
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Sienalunaz_thesignalist
XAU/USD Bullish Setup Confirmed After Wave C CompletionXAU/USD has completed a classic five-wave impulsive structure to the upside, followed by a clear ABC corrective phase. The price action shows that wave (5) has topped, and the market has since retraced through a three-wave ABC correction inside a well-defined descending channel. Currently, wave C appears to have found support right at the lower trendline of the broader ascending structure, signaling a potential completion of the correction and the beginning of a new bullish impulse. The reaction from this level is strong, suggesting that buyers are stepping in to drive the next leg higher Wave Count: 5-wave impulse up, followed by ABC correction Structure: Wave C completed at key channel support Momentum: Bullish recovery expected if price holds above recent swing low T1: 3332.268 T2: 3354.078 SL: 3289.400
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Money_Dictators
Gold Loses Shine Amid Hopes the Middle East War Remains Under Co Gold is showing little movement today, holding near $2,386 per ounce after a drop of over 1.4% yesterday. This weak performance comes as market fears over the fallout from the Israel-Iran conflict have eased. Investors are hopeful that energy supplies flowing from the region to the rest of the world will not face major disruption. Scenarios that could shock oil prices, according to Axios , include Israel striking Iran’s key export facilities, Iran targeting production sites in the region, or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. None of these developments have occurred so far, which has kept fears of renewed inflation and persistently high interest rates in check. The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal believes that global oil production capacity can absorb supply disruptions unless they are catastrophic, such as a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As long as the conflict does not severely disrupt energy supplies, markets may downplay its impact. This limits the geopolitical risk premium that would otherwise support further gains in gold prices. However, if diplomacy fails to contain the conflict soon, Iran may choose to escalate it by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, according to experts cited by The Journal . This concern could prompt the US and Gulf states to intensify diplomatic efforts or even pull the US directly into the conflict. Beyond the military situation, markets are watching developments in the US-China trade dispute, where talks have yet to make meaningful progress. The lack of a breakthrough could push the US to impose restrictions on semiconductor exports and manufacturing equipment, threatening billions in American corporate sales, according to The Journal . Such moves might trigger further escalation by China, which holds leverage through its dominance in rare earth metals. Renewed tensions could disrupt supply chains and drive inflation even higher. Although recent inflation data do not suggest a sudden surge in prices, experts told The New York Times that the effects of tariffs and supply chain disruption may take months or even over a year to feed through to consumer prices. This is partly because sellers can rely on pre-tariff stockpiles and offer discounts for a period. Failure to resolve these issues could see inflation rebound, keeping interest rates high at levels that the economy may not be able to bear. The chief economics commentator at The Journal wrote last week that the Federal Reserve should shift its focus from fighting inflation to supporting the economy through rate cuts, given signs of labor market weakness. Persistently high rates or further increases, along with rising bond yields, may not weigh on gold. On the contrary, they could support demand for the safe-haven asset as worries about slowing growth and recession deepen. Uncertainty in the bond market remains high compared to levels before the Ukraine war in 2022, as shown by the ICE BofAML TVC:MOVE index, which measures fear in the US Treasury bond market. This could limit the downward pressure of rising yields on gold prices. Markets are awaiting tomorrow’s Fed decision on interest rates, with attention focused on Jerome Powell’s remarks after the announcement. A stronger Fed stance on keeping rates elevated for longer might temporarily pressure gold. However, renewed concerns about economic growth could quickly restore demand for the yellow metal. Data from China also continue to fuel economic worries. Recent figures show industrial production and fixed-asset investment growth slowing more than expected, which could bolster demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Samer Hasn
CAPITALCOM:GOLD
by SamerHa