bigger corrective range
Hello , trader,
This is my first sharing for 2025 where i forecast the direction of US indices.
Let's see how it plays out
Cheers!
US100 trade ideas
US Nas 100 . 4H4-Hour Timeframe Analysis for NAS 100U
In the 4-hour timeframe, we have observed a confirmed bullish trend. The price has reached a short-term peak and established this level, allowing for a pullback that can facilitate liquidity accumulation. If this pullback holds, we anticipate upward movement toward our identified target.
However, we must remain cautious. If the Order Block Decisional fails, we will revise our selling strategy accordingly. In addition, should the Order Block Extreme be confirmed in the specified area, we may reconsider re-entering a buy position. It is essential to keep trades open until we hit our Fibonacci-based take-profit targets.
US Nas 100Hello everyone, dear traders! I am Fereydoon Bahrami, a trader and market analyst focused on Forex. Today, we will conduct an in-depth analysis of the NAS 100U chart and review our insights
NAS 100U Chart Analysis
Greetings and best wishes to you all. Based on our analysis today, we have received confirmation of a bullish trend in the 4-hour timeframe. In this analysis, the price has reached and established a short-term peak within the 4-hour chart. Following a pullback to accumulate liquidity, we can anticipate a potential price increase towards the specified target on the chart. This represents our first entry point, which I have indicated on the chart.
However, should the **Order Block Decisional** prove ineffective, I will revise the selling strategy and share it with you. Additionally, I have identified another **Order Block Extreme**. If this Order Block fails and we implement the selling strategy, once we receive confirmation in this zone, we will re-enter a buying position. Furthermore, the price targets (Take Profit levels) have been established using Fibonacci retracement levels; it is essential that if we enter a trade, we maintain it until we achieve the designated target.
Fundamental Analysis for the Week (December 16 to December 22, 2024)
To enhance the accuracy of our analysis, let’s highlight the fundamental factors that have impacted the market over the past week:
1. **Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Report**: On Friday, December 20, 2024, the NFP report was released, indicating a drop in the unemployment rate to 4% along with an increase in the number of new jobs created, exceeding expectations. This positive data serves as a potential macroeconomic indicator of growth in the U.S. economy, which could bolster NAS 100U.
2. **Inflation Data**: On December 18, data regarding the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released, showing a 0.3% increase from the previous month. This has raised concerns regarding a potential interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. If this trend persists, it could exert pressure on the markets.
3. **Federal Reserve Signals**: Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials hinted at the possibility of an interest rate increase in the upcoming meeting, which may positively influence financial markets. Such developments can lead to increased volatility and prompt investors to closely analyze the status of NAS 100U and other indices.
4. **Global Economic Influences**: In the past week, global markets have been affected by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and trade disputes with China. The economic and political decisions made by major world powers have had a significant impact on NAS 100U and other U.S. indices, leading to market fluctuations.
Scenarios
Now, we can summarize our three scenarios as follows:
1. **Bullish Scenario**: With the price stabilization at the short-term peak and a pullback for liquidity accumulation, we expect the price to rise toward the target identified on the chart. This represents our first entry point.
2. **Selling Scenario**: If **Order Block Decisional** fails, we will update our selling entry strategy and will enter a trade upon confirmation.
3. **Re-buy Scenario**: If **Order Block Extreme** is validated in a specific region, we can re-enter a buying position. It is crucial to emphasize maintaining the trade until we reach the targets outlined by Fibonacci levels.
By considering these analyses alongside the fundamental news, we aim to assist you in making informed trading decisions. Join us as we embark on this pathway to mutual success. Thank you!
Fereydoon Bahrami
"A retail trader in the Wall Street trading Center (Forex)."
US100 Trade LogUS100 has reached the daily FVG , providing a short setup at the 0.5 level with at least "1:2 RRR" and 1% risk.
Any fill above the midpoint is ideal, aiming for a correction into the weekly Kijun .
Recent Fed hawkishness, softening global growth, and tightening liquidity support a downside move. Stops go just above the FVG high; ride the drop toward weekly support.
USNAS100 / Price Momentum and Key Breakout Levels
Technical Analysis
The price exhibits bearish momentum as long as it trades below 21620, targeting 21360. However, the price is expected to consolidate between 21360 and 21630 until a breakout occurs.
A 4-hour candle close above 21630 will support a bullish move toward 21770 and 21900.
On the other hand, if the price stabilizes below 21360, the bearish trend is likely to continue toward 20980 and 20860.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 21530
Resistance Levels: 21630, 21770, 21900
Support Levels: 21370, 21215, 21070
Trend Outlook:
- Bearish Momentum: Stability below 21620
- Bullish Momentum: Stability above 21630
NAS100USD Will Go Lower! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for NAS100USD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 21,471.9.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 20,314.7 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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TEMPORARY SELLS ON NASDAQGood day traders, today we have beautiful market structure on Nasdaq as you can see on the 15m timeframe the market gave us a bearish market structure shift after reaching the FVG on the right, we are in the london killzone i am looking for this market to trade down to the level @21098.7 so that I can execute my buys(long term positions) so do not worry if you missed the perfect entry on this one, there will be more during the day.currently we are selling to buy
ENTRY:21538.1
SL:21616.8
TP:21098.7
NAS100 - Nasdaq, waiting for the final days of Santa Rally?!The index is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the four-hour time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the supply zone, you can look for the next Nasdaq sell positions with the appropriate risk reward. Nasdaq being in the demand zone will provide us with the conditions to buy it.
The Federal Reserve, in its latest meeting, reduced the interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 4.25%–4.50%. However, FOMC members now forecast the 2025 interest rate to hover around 3.9%, higher than their September projection of 3.4%.
Markets were largely surprised by the Fed’s hawkish stance, especially following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, indirectly emphasized during the post-meeting press conference that policymakers are currently assessing the impact of Trump’s economic policies on inflation and growth.
This shift has unsettled investors, dampening the optimistic market sentiment that typically precedes the Christmas holiday. Concerns are rising that if the Trump administration follows through on its campaign promises regarding taxes, tariffs, and immigration, the Fed may have to reverse its rate-cutting trajectory and adopt rate hikes instead.
The outlook for 2025 has also seen adjustments. The Federal Reserve now expects only two rate cuts in 2025, compared to four cuts forecasted in September. This adjustment reflects the persistent inflation that remains above the central bank’s target range.
Following the Fed’s announcement, the S&P 500 experienced its steepest decline in 27 months, falling over 3.5%. The last time the U.S. stock index saw such a significant drop was in September 2022, during peak inflation and amid aggressive monetary tightening. Similarly, the Nasdaq dropped by 3.6%, marking its worst decline in five months.
Morgan Stanley also revised its outlook for the Fed, predicting two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, instead of the previously anticipated three cuts.
On the economic front, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, scheduled for release today, is likely to draw market attention. This index has risen steadily over the past two months, while one of its components—the sub-index measuring “job finding difficulty”—has declined during the same period. Given its strong correlation with the official unemployment rate, a further drop in December could signal job growth and a stronger dollar.
On Tuesday, November data for durable goods orders and new home sales will be released. Durable goods orders, which grew by 0.3% in October, are expected to decline by 0.4% month-over-month. However, investors often focus on the more specific “non-defense capital goods orders (excluding aircraft),” which tends to exhibit less volatility and is a key input for GDP calculations.
Overall, if market volatility persists during the holiday season, equities and bonds are likely to be impacted. The Fed’s hawkish tone is unfavorable for stocks, suggesting continued selling pressure as Treasury yields rise. The U.S. Treasury plans to auction two-year, five-year, and seven-year notes this week. If demand falls short of expectations, bond yields could face additional upward pressure.
Deutsche Bank, in a recent note, highlighted a significant shift in the Fed’s tone. Although the Fed reduced the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%–4.50%, analysts noted a more hawkish stance than expected.
One key indicator of this shift is the upward revision of the 2025 median inflation forecast to 2.5%, which Deutsche Bank described as “notable.” According to this report, the Fed does not anticipate inflation returning to its 2% target until 2027.
Furthermore, the Fed’s updated forward guidance lacked any clear indications of future rate cuts. Jerome Powell described the December rate cut as a “difficult decision,” which faced opposition from Loretta Mester, President of the Cleveland Fed.
Deutsche Bank analysts believe the Fed is unlikely to take any action during its January meeting, and the current pause could extend into a prolonged hold throughout 2025. Forecasts suggest that interest rates will remain above 4% next year, with no additional cuts anticipated.
Nasdaq market analysis: 23-Dec-2024Good morning, traders! Welcome to today's Nasdaq market analysis. Compare my price action insights with your own charts and enhance your trading skills.
US100 Support & Resistance In The current market environment identifying support and demand zones for US100 is essential.
NDX Is Very Bearish! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for NDX.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 21,287.68.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 20,340.94 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
NDX positive move for the next two days.Riding the Nasdaq Wave: Navigating Market Swells and Dips
Let’s dive into the Nasdaq 100 Index. Flashback to a year ago, and you'll remember a 4.05% dip from December 28, 2023, to January 4, 2024. Technology stocks took a hit, shaken by rising interest rates. The market trembled under hawkish whispers from Federal Reserve officials, who hinted that rates might stay elevated to tame inflation. This stirred up volatility, causing a sell-off in high-growth tech stocks — notoriously sensitive to interest rate ripples.
Fast forward to today, and we’re staring down a similar barrel: fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 and pesky inflation hanging around. Technically, the NDX boasts solid support at around 21,000. It would take some seriously bad macro-news to dip below the 50-day moving average. Expect some range trading between 21,000 and 22,000 this week.
For traders, the game plan mirrors that of the S&P 500 Index. Pocket some profits during market highs and keep some cash handy for snagging better deals in 2025. Stay sharp, and ride the wave!
NASDAQ-100 NEEDS MORE CLARITY TO MOVE INDEX FORWARD!Last week, the NASDAQ-100 established key levels for both sellers and buyers. As we head into the next trading week, price rejection at either of these levels will likely determine the index's direction. While the weekly outlook remains bullish, a bearish close this week could lead to further deterioration of the index.
N.B!
- NAS100USD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#nas100usd
#nasdaq
NAS100 Confirms Upside After Testing 1M PPHello,
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 has tested the 1M PP, receiving sufficient support to push the price above the 1D PP. This confirms the potential for further upward movement.
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
NAS100 DEC 23 -27 MARKET BREAKDOWNAnalysis Based on the Chart:
1. Bullish Context:
The overall trend is bullish, and the market has recently pulled back to a key support zone:
• The 50% Fibonacci retracement level aligns with both historical support and a daily bullish order block (OB).
• Price action respecting this level suggests a potential continuation to the upside.
2. Daily Break of Structure (BOS):
The BOS on the daily timeframe confirms a shift to bullish momentum, indicating that higher highs could be the next target.
3. Liquidity Sweep:
The sharp pullback appears to have cleared out liquidity (stop-loss clusters from retail traders) below the recent swing low. This is a common pattern before a bullish push.
4. Confluences for Entry:
• The pullback to the Fibonacci 50% level gives a high-probability entry point.
• The price has respected both dynamic support (trendline) and horizontal support at the bullish OB.
NQ-NASDAQ Levels week commencing 23/12/24I hope this chart provides clear simple levels to trade or fade
Nasdaq price is hovering around trendline support.Nasdaq price is hovering around trendline support. It may retrace from here
BEST SETUP OF THE YEAR1 Date : 20/12/2024
SETUP : buy
2 ECONOMIC NEWS EVENT : CORE PCE INDEX (YoY) & (MoM) NOV
3 EVENT OUTCOME: usa pce came LOWER THAN EXPECTED signaling a bullish outcome for US INDEX
NAS100USD: Targeting Low-Resistance Liquidity ZonesGreetings Traders!
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, we observe a recent bullish shift in price action, presenting opportunities to capitalize on buying setups. Wednesday’s volatile move to the downside, triggered by the FOMC announcement, created a liquidity void—an inefficiency in price delivery where only sell-side action was present. The market tends to revisit these zones to rebalance, making them key areas of interest.
This liquidity void also qualifies as a low-resistance liquidity zone, where minimal obstacles exist to impede price movement. Consequently, we aim to target price progression through this zone until reaching the high-resistance liquidity zone, the last area where significant price resistance occurred.
Key Observations:
Institutional Perspective: Price moved from a discount zone, where institutions order-paired against sell stops, indicating they are now running their trades toward fair value.
Fair Value Areas: Liquidity voids and fair value gaps are prime zones for institutions to scale out of their positions, making them strategic targets for our trades.
Trading Strategy:
We will look for confirmation to align with bullish institutional order flow and target the liquidity void as a fair value zone. The FOMC-induced displacement provides a clear inefficiency that institutions are likely to use to balance their positions.
Let’s analyze the price action carefully and adapt as the market develops. Share your thoughts or questions in the comments, and let’s navigate the markets together!
Kind Regards,
The Architect
Technical Analysis of NASDAQ 100 Index (4-Hour Chart)
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Key Support Levels:
The 20,566 level serves as the current support zone. This level is critical for determining the future direction of the index.
If this level is breached, the next support lies around 20,250.
Key Resistance Levels:
The first resistance zone is between 21,329-21,381, which aligns with the 20-period moving average and acts as a significant hurdle for upward movement.
Upon breaking this resistance, the next target is around 22,106, corresponding to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands indicator.
Potential Scenarios
1. Bullish Scenario:
If the price rebounds from the 20,566 support zone, the index is expected to initially move towards the 21,381 resistance level. A successful breakout of this level could push the index toward its next target at 22,106. Confirmation signals, such as bullish patterns or increased buying volume, would strengthen this scenario.
2. Bearish Scenario:
If the 20,566 support zone is breached, the index could further decline toward the 20,250 level. Breaking this support would indicate significant market weakness and potential continuation of the downtrend.
Indicator Analysis
Bollinger Bands:
The price has reached the lower Bollinger Band, typically signaling a potential reversal. However, continued downward movement is possible if the lower band is decisively broken.
20-Period Moving Average (Blue Line):
This moving average acts as dynamic resistance. A breakout above this level may signal a short-term trend reversal.
Conclusion and Trading Suggestions
Considering the NASDAQ 100 index's position near the 20,566 support level, traders should watch for reversal signals. If confirmation of a rebound (e.g., increased trading volume or formation of reversal patterns) occurs, entering long positions near this area could be favorable. However, if this support is breached, it is advisable to avoid long trades and look for lower levels for market entry.
Recommendations:
Enter long positions near the 20,566 level with a stop-loss below 20,500.
Initial upside target: 21,381.
Manage risk by setting appropriate stop-loss levels and monitoring price behavior near critical zones.
