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Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen discussion

Oct 12

CHF/JPY October Market Structure and Trading Analysis

In the CHF/JPY pair, the October monthly structure reveals an open high-low-close pattern, which points towards a potential sell setup. As of now, we are awaiting confirmation through a TDI (Traders Dynamic Index) cross to validate entry points for sell trades.

Key Technical Highlights:

1. Bearish Divergence: A clear bearish divergence has been forming since July 19, 2024, extending to the current market price. This divergence signals a potential shift in market sentiment, suggesting a downward move may be imminent.

2. Open High Structure on Daily Chart: The daily timeframe for October continues to display an open-high structure, reinforcing the bearish outlook for the month.

3. Overbought Market Conditions: The price is showing signs of being significantly overbought following a strong bullish breakout from October 1, 2024. This overbought condition makes the pair vulnerable to a correction, further strengthening the sell setup.

4. TDI Cross for Confirmation: A bearish cross in the TDI indicator will provide confirmation of the presence of sellers in the market. This signal is crucial before initiating sell positions.

Take Profit Levels:
- Take Profit 1: 172.000
- Take Profit 2: 170.750
- Take Profit 3: 170.000

Trading Recommendations:
Patience is key—wait for clear, valid signals such as the TDI cross to confirm entry points. As always, exercise caution and apply proper risk management when trading to protect your capital.

If you find this analysis insightful, please like, leave a comment, and follow for more updates. I will happily follow back. Good luck with your trades!

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Oct 11

more upside are coming..

Oct 8

174.500 around next target

Oct 4

This pair is completely out of whack in my opinion. The interest rate differential between the two countries is only 1% (1.25% vs 0.25%). But CHF has appreciated against JPY almost 60% since 2020.
Now, US non farm payroll lifts off CHF even further.
The situation looks unsustainable. I hope yen carry trade won't be an WMD to global finance in 2025.