CHFNOK trade ideas
CHFNOK Buy SignalPattern: Bullish Megaphone.
Signal: Bullish on the support.
Target: 8.8700 (Resistance on the high volatility level).
CHFNOK Hourly BatPRZ is in rectangle, only trade it if price action indicates a reversal in the PRZ/blue rectangle. Very slight, slight divergence on the Stoch.
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CHFNOK Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Bullish. The Higher Low patterns are identical and deliver a strong upside when spotted.
Target: 9.00000.
Sell CHF/NOKThis is just a journal for me. I strongly warn you to not take this in your real account. Good luck!
CHFNOK long setup H4Price formed a bullish gartley pattern at previous support level confirmed with a double bottom on that level and a little bounce with a breakout of the trend line followed by a pullback. We have a RSI divergence showing a weakenig bearish movement . We might be at the first corrective wave I expect the trend to be bullish the next few days
Buy CHF/NOKThis is just a journal for me. I strongly warn you to not take this in your real account. Good luck!
Buy CHF/NOKThis is just a journal for me. I strongly warn you to not take this in your real account. Good luck!
Higher Low on 1W Channel Up. Long.CHFNOK is in the process of completing a Higher Low on the 1W Channel Up (RSI = 57.467, MACD = 0.092, Highs/Lows = 0.0650, B/BP = 0.0984). This can be a lengthy (15 session) process but eventually should reach the previous Higher High. We are long with TP = 8.7500.
A tactical CHF short.... Central Bank combo=> In this particular example we are outguessing a break of a channel and confirming further wide chop with the cross.
=> This week is busy from a monetary policy perspective and with both the Norges Bank and SNB in play we decided to use the CHFNOK as the main course...
=> Thursday is the rainmaker here; whilst the SNB are likely to portray a dovish tone especially after the recent CHF rally... Norges Bank will deliver a 25bp hike.
=> This hike is widely priced in and expected so anything else will shortcircuit the NOK across all other pairs.
=> It is also worth mentioning the late cycle rally in oil. Those following our portfolio know we have already begun positioning to the sell side in oil because of the late cycle.
=> This means we are using a strategic short here in CHFNOK not only as a central bank highlight of the week but also as a hedge to our oil shorts in our portfolio.
=> Overall a complex call that makes sense to us...Best of luck all
SWISS INVESTORS LOOK ELSEWHERE PT. 2"We expect risk appetite to rebound, helped by benign wage growth in the US. In this environment, short CHFNOK trades should do well. Recent Norwegian macro data have generally beaten market expectations, with forward looking indicators like PMI also holding up well. NOK also receives additional support from rallying oil price which helps its oil sector, as evidenced in the strong regional network survey (next 6m outlook reaching the highest level since 2012),which has historically set the tone for the Norges Bank. On the CHF side, we expect Swiss private investors to invest more abroad with the Italian election and German SPD vote confirming that the risk of Eurozone break-up remains low, and the ECB continuing to move towards policy normalisation. We do not expect the SNB to change its accommodative policy this week given uncertainty over the impending vote on the Swiss sovereign money initiative in June and inflation still far below 2%. The SNB may continue to limit the CHF upside, as the sight deposits data suggests that they resumed FX interventions when EURCHF was hovering around 1.15. The risks to this trade are the Norges Bank striking a dovish tone or the SNB being more hawkish this week." Morgan Stanley
WEEKLY FORECAST - MEDIUM TERMRecent price behaviour indicates we have had end of long consolidation after last impulse to downside and we are heading south with big momentum.
Any pullbacks should be used as a good sell opportunities as target for next impulse is big.
cross market analysis shows weaknes of swiss frank and strenght of norwegian korone across all major currencies.
Therefore alll above leads me to conclusion it can be fantastic trade for coming weeks despite of deep movement done on this pair already.
CHFNOK - Sell at the bendLong term up trend CHFNOK is finished. Norway is accelerating thx to stimulus being put into the economy which has kick-started and enormous amount of infrastructure builds around the country. Oil industry is done with its "cleanup" on jobs with new job openings up 56% in the oil region in nov/des. Housing market fundamentals in Oslo is overheating with the West-coast having bottomed. All evident in listings for sale and rental market activity. Projections for 10bbls of oil find in the Barents Sea (north) at 55-level Brent holds some very interesting possibilities of what lays in-store (projections of 10bbls has just been made). Regional banks on the west-coast is a winner on the stock exchange this year having skirted the major loss projections announced back in time. Furthermore, interest rate cycle has bottomed and entry specific safe guards added on the Oslo small flats market carries further evidence of an end of rate cut cycle. Governmental focus on upstarts has generated tax cuts for companies from 28% down to 24% in 2017 (23% in 2018) and the lessening of banks lending requirements for SMEs (new 2017) will jolt the job creation into the new year. The opposite picture is true in Switzerland with stagnant Q3 growth, soft housing markets (Geneva especially) and big industries like tourism and watches continuing to shed sales and earnings due to a problematically high CHF. The overlaying picture show ECB in April cutting its QE program and thus forward the leak of the weak into CHF will be stopping somewhere in first half 2017. Generally a 7-handle is coming up fast as we now move out of the low liquidity period that hits the NOK during the xmas periods. January stars with Norwegian Central bank uping its sale of foreign currencies at a new record to cover the state-budget requirements for 2017 - this should continue as the expansionary features of the 2017-budget will require exchanges above normal.
TRIANGLE PATTERNWait for breakout from triangle and enter the trade wit target as on chart.
My favourite call is to south as continuation move,
Pattern might need to be redraw as unfolds.
