Trade Idea: Sell NZD/CHF (Still in Play) **📉 Trade Idea: Sell NZD/CHF (Still in Play)**
**Bias:** 🔻 Bearish
**Timeframe:** 🧭 Short-to-Medium Term
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### **💡 Why Sell NZD/CHF?**
*(Already shared before — and it's working so far ✅)*
**🇳🇿 New Zealand Dollar (NZD):**
* **Global risk-off + weak China demand**
→ *🌍📉 Bad mix for the Kiwi — pressure from all sides.*
* **RBNZ cut rates to 3.25%, may go lower**
→ *📉 Clearly in easing mode — no support from policy.*
* **GDP due June 23 — big swing factor**
→ *📅 Until then, no real reason to be bullish.*
* **Dairy & China exposure still weighing**
→ *🐄🇨🇳 Old headwinds, still blowing.*
* **Market sentiment: Bearish**
→ *🟥 Traders expecting more weakness — and so far, they’re right.*
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**🇨🇭 Swiss Franc (CHF):**
* **Risk-off flows help CHF — but not strongly**
→ *🛡️ Some safe-haven demand, though capped by the SNB's soft stance.*
* **SNB cut rates to 0%, may go negative again**
→ *💤 Ultra-dovish tone, but market already priced it in.*
* **Flat inflation, soft GDP**
→ *📊 Weak data, but no fresh downside pressure yet.*
* **On U.S. watchlist for FX manipulation**
→ *👀 Adds possible SNB intervention risk — something to monitor.*
* **Market tone: Neutral**
→ *⚖️ CHF not charging higher, but holding its ground. Enough to beat the Kiwi.*
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### **🔍 Outlook:**
The **fundamental match-up favors the franc over the Kiwi** — even with the SNB being dovish. NZD is just weaker right now, and as long as GDP doesn’t surprise to the upside, this short trade still has room to run.
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**📌 Note:**
> *“This setup’s been behaving nicely — not flashy, but steady. Until NZ GDP proves otherwise, I’m staying with the trend.”*
