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SWISS FRANC / NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR

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CHFNZD trade ideas

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LONGDetailed Report on the NZD/CHF Currency Pair Fundamental Economic State New Zealand: GDP Growth: New Zealand's economy is projected to grow by 1.1% in 2024, following a significant slowdown due to tight monetary policy and a decline in private investment and government consumption. The GDP growth is expected to recover to 1.5% in 2025​ (IMF)​​ (FocusEconomics)​. Employment Data: The unemployment rate is stable at around 4.0%, reflecting a tight labor market. Despite the economic slowdown, employment growth has remained relatively strong​ (OECD)​​ (IMF)​. Inflation Rates: Inflation in New Zealand has declined from its peak, currently around 3.0%, and is expected to fall further in the coming quarters. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a tight monetary policy to combat persistent inflationary pressures​ (IMF)​​ (Stats NZ)​. Retail Sales: Retail sales have seen a slight uptick in early 2024, ending a period of consecutive quarterly declines. This improvement is supported by rising consumer confidence and increased tourist arrivals​ (OECD)​​ (FocusEconomics)​. Trade Balances: New Zealand's current account deficit remains above its long-run average, although it has narrowed slightly due to lower domestic demand and reduced oil prices. Export growth has been supported by strong demand for agricultural products​ (IMF)​​ (FocusEconomics)​. Fiscal Policies: The New Zealand government is running a structural fiscal deficit, with spending-to-GDP ratio higher than expected due to responses to rising costs and weather-related events. The fiscal policy remains more expansionary compared to other advanced economies​ (IMF)​. Switzerland: GDP Growth: Switzerland's economy is experiencing moderate growth with projections of around 1.5% for 2024. The economy remains stable, supported by robust industrial production and strong financial services sector​ (IMF)​​ (FocusEconomics)​. Employment Data: Switzerland boasts a low unemployment rate, consistently below 3.0%, reflecting a highly efficient labor market and strong demand for skilled labor​ (IMF)​. Inflation Rates: Swiss inflation remains low, around 1.5%, which is well within the target range of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The country's strong currency and stable economic environment contribute to subdued inflationary pressures​ (IMF)​. Retail Sales: Retail sales in Switzerland have shown steady growth, driven by high consumer confidence and robust domestic consumption. The stable economic environment supports continuous retail sector expansion​ (IMF)​. Trade Balances: Switzerland maintains a significant trade surplus, driven by high exports of pharmaceuticals, machinery, and financial services. The strong Swiss franc continues to support the country's trade balance​ (IMF)​. Fiscal Policies: Switzerland's fiscal policy is characterized by prudence and sustainability. The government runs a budget surplus and maintains low public debt levels, ensuring long-term economic stability​ (IMF)​. Daily Percentage Changes Over the past month, the NZD/CHF exchange rate has experienced fluctuations driven by various economic data releases and market events. Key movements include: Early May 2024: A decline in NZD following weak economic data from New Zealand, including lower-than-expected GDP growth figures. Mid-May 2024: An increase in NZD driven by stronger retail sales and consumer confidence data, along with a slight improvement in inflation rates. Late May 2024: Volatility due to geopolitical tensions and speculation around central bank policy decisions in both New Zealand and Switzerland​ (OECD)​​ (IMF)​​ (FocusEconomics)​. News Analysis Recent news impacting the NZD/CHF exchange rate includes: RBNZ Announcements: The RBNZ's decision to maintain a tight monetary policy has led to periods of stability for the NZD​ (IMF)​​ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)​. Swiss Economic Data Releases: Strong Swiss industrial production and low inflation have supported the CHF, contributing to its strength against the NZD​ (IMF)​​ (FocusEconomics)​. Geopolitical Developments: Global economic uncertainties and trade negotiations have influenced market sentiment and currency valuations​ (IMF)​​ (FocusEconomics)​. Interest Rate Expectations RBNZ: The RBNZ is expected to maintain its current interest rate of 5.5% through 2024, with potential adjustments depending on inflation and economic growth trajectories​ (IMF)​​ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)​. SNB: The Swiss National Bank is likely to keep interest rates low, around 1.5%, to support economic growth and maintain price stability. The SNB's cautious approach to monetary policy supports the stability of the CHF​ (IMF)​. Commodity Prices and Market Sentiment Dairy and Agricultural Products: New Zealand's economy heavily relies on exports of dairy and other agricultural products. Fluctuations in global demand for these commodities significantly impact the NZD​ (IMF)​. Gold: As a safe-haven asset, gold prices influence the CHF. Strong gold prices support the CHF, reflecting its role as a stable currency in times of economic uncertainty​ (IMF)​. Projection Figures Based on current economic data and trends, the NZD/CHF exchange rate is projected to be around 0.57 by the end of June 2024. This projection considers stable commodity prices, steady interest rates, and moderate economic growth in both countries​ (IMF)​​ (FocusEconomics)​. Trade Ideas Short-term: Consider going LONG on NZD/CHF at current levels (around 0.55) with a target of 0.57, based on expected improvements in New Zealand's economic indicators and steady Swiss economic performance. Long-term: A cautious LONG position could be taken with a target of 0.58, assuming a gradual improvement in global economic conditions and positive impacts from fiscal policies in both countries​ (IMF)​​ (FocusEconomics)​. Current Price Consideration As of now, the NZD/CHF is trading around 0.55. The projections and trade ideas are aligned with this current price, ensuring relevance and accuracy based on the latest economic data and market conditions​ (IMF)​​ (FocusEconomics)​. Additional Considerations Global Macroeconomic Trends: The global economic outlook, particularly developments in major economies like China, will continue to influence the NZD/CHF pair. Seasonal Trends: Historical data indicates that certain seasonal patterns may affect currency movements, which should be considered in the analysis. By keeping these factors in mind, the provided projections and trade ideas aim to offer precise and realistic guidance based on thorough economic analysis.
Long
by Georgetass2
NZDCHF(Elliott Wave)Hello friends In the NZDCHF currency pair, we see a very clear Elliott pattern. In this pattern, we see either an ABC or a 3 of 5 wave. In every 3 or C wave scenario, we see a 5th wave, the 5th wave of which has not been completed yet. We are waiting for the completion of wave 5 of 3, and after breaking the upward trend line and pullback, we can enter the short trade. It is possible that the 5th wave is formed as Ending Diagonal, which rarely happens, but if it happens, the price will fall quickly and sharply. Also, I remind you that Ending Diagonal is formed only in wave 5 and with the structure 3_3_3_3_3. Probably the price will grow up to the range of 0.56500 then it will fall to the range of 0.5500. To support me, I recommend that you install Trading View software on your phone and see my analysis and support me with your comments and Boost. Be successful and profitable.
Short
by M_Gheysvandi
NZD/CHFBearish Divergence Bearish divergence is a technical analysis concept indicating potential downward momentum in an asset's price, suggesting that the current uptrend may be weakening. It occurs when the price of an asset reaches higher highs, but an indicator (such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), or Stochastic Oscillator) forms lower highs. This divergence between the price and the indicator signals that the bullish momentum is fading, and a reversal to the downside may be imminent. Key Points of Bearish Divergence 1. **Higher Highs in Price**: The asset's price continues to climb, forming higher highs. 2. **Lower Highs in Indicator**: The chosen technical indicator fails to match the higher highs in price and instead forms lower highs. 3. **Potential Reversal Signal**: This discrepancy suggests that the bullish momentum is weakening, potentially leading to a reversal or a significant pullback. Common Indicators Used for Identifying Bearish Divergence 1. **Relative Strength Index (RSI)**: A momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. Bearish divergence occurs when the price makes a higher high, but the RSI forms a lower high. 2. **Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)**: A trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price. Bearish divergence is seen when the price makes higher highs while the MACD line forms lower highs. 3. **Stochastic Oscillator**: A momentum indicator comparing a particular closing price of a security to a range of its prices over a certain period. Bearish divergence occurs when the price reaches higher highs, but the stochastic oscillator forms lower highs. Trading Strategy 1. **Identify Divergence**: Look for higher highs in the price chart and lower highs in the chosen technical indicator. 2. **Confirmation**: Confirm the bearish divergence with additional technical analysis tools or patterns (e.g., trendlines, candlestick patterns). 3. **Entry Point**: Consider entering a short position when the price starts to reverse direction, confirming the bearish signal. 4. **Stop-Loss**: Place a stop-loss order above the recent high to manage risk. 5. **Target Price**: Set a target price based on key support levels or a predefined risk/reward ratio. Example Assume a stock is in an uptrend with the following observations: - **Price Action**: The stock's price makes a high at $100, pulls back, and then makes a higher high at $105. - **RSI Indicator**: The RSI reaches 70 at the first high ($100), then only reaches 65 at the second high ($105), forming a lower high. This scenario indicates bearish divergence: - **Higher Highs in Price**: $100 to $105. - **Lower Highs in RSI**: 70 to 65. Benefits and Risks **Benefits**: - **Early Warning**: Provides an early signal of a potential trend reversal. - **Risk Management**: Helps in setting up trades with clear entry and exit points. **Risks**: - **False Signals**: Divergences can sometimes produce false signals, leading to premature trades. - **Confirmation Needed**: It’s essential to confirm divergence signals with other technical analysis tools or patterns to reduce the risk of false signals. Conclusion Bearish divergence is a valuable tool for traders to identify potential trend reversals. By recognizing higher highs in price and lower highs in a technical indicator, traders can anticipate a weakening uptrend and prepare for a possible downward move. Proper risk management and confirmation with additional analysis are crucial to effectively trade bearish divergence signals.
Short
by B9A-88652-NisarAhmad
NZDCHF Trading Opportunity! BUY! My dear subscribers, NZDCHF looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 0.5548 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 0.5559 About Used Indicators: The average true range ATR plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
NZDCHF I Impulse correction and potential continuation Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** NZDCHF Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
4
Potential bearish drop?NZD/CHF is rising towards a resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could fall to our take profit. Entry: 0.55902 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Stop loss: 0.56759 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance. Take profit: 0.54882 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
NZDCHF Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaOn the daily timeframe, the NZDCHF has displayed a strong bullish trend. Our focus is currently on identifying a buying opportunity that aligns with the continuation of this trend. Assuming price action unfolds as analyzed in the video, we anticipate favorable trading conditions. The video covers critical aspects such as trend analysis, price action insights, market structure, and a potential trade setup. As always, exercise prudent risk management when trading, and remember that this information is purely educational and not financial advice. 📈👍
Long
by fxtraderanthony
2