2024-06-04 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Here is my update from yesterday after hours with an update for short term, since we clearly broke outside of the channel.
dax
comment: Globex perfectly retested the breakout at 18630 but failed and the EU session just sold off big time to a lower low. It was a small break below the bear channel line but ultimately a bear trap and market then tested the upper channel line. Market closed at the lows and under the important price 18500.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18750
bull case: Bulls see the third push down inside the bear channel as a lower high and now want a trend reversal to test back to 18700. They have not been able to make higher highs this week and that show’s weakness. The big bull trend line on the daily chart is still alive and as long as they are near the daily 20ema and the big bull trend line, they will BTFD. Next target is break above the bear channel line around 18530.
Invalidation is below 18380.
bear case: Bears making lower highs and lower lows. They want the market to continue to go sideways to down to break below the big bull trend line on the daily tf. 18400 is still resistance and therefore we are in an descending triangle and bears have a low chance of breaking below. They need consecutive bear bars below 18400 to strengthen their case.
Invalidation is above 18640.
short term: Neutral kinda. We will probably hit 18600 soon, where bears decide if it stays resistance or we test 18700 again. If it stays resistance, we could test 18400 again.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: APPLIES TO YESTERDAY - Bar 13 was the first strong bear bar, then bar 22 + 24 made new lows and stayed below the 15m 20ema. Enough reasons to go short and that was good for 200+ points. My room did not catch the first leg down because I was not at my desk but the second one for 100 points.
