NAS100 - Will the stock market continue to rise!?The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading within the specified range. In case of a valid break of this range, I expect a new trend to form. In case of corrective movements towards the demand zone, we can buy Nasdaq in that range with an appropriate reward for the risk.
A recent report from Bank of America reveals that investors are actively repositioning in global markets. For the second consecutive week, U.S.equities experienced capital outflows, while European stocks saw inflows for the seventh straight week.
Digital assets attracted $2.6 billion in inflows—the largest amount since January. In contrast, Japanese equities recorded the largest weekly outflow in history, while emerging markets equities attracted their highest inflows of 2025. Meanwhile, emerging markets debt also posted its strongest inflows since January 2023.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, speaking at the 2025 Reagan National Economic Forum, warned that China will not yield to U.S. trade pressure. He urged that the U.S. must first address its internal challenges, including reforming laws, taxes, immigration, education, and healthcare systems. Dimon also underscored the importance of preserving military alliances.
He noted that China is a serious and potential rival, and if the United States fails to maintain its position as the world’s dominant economic and military power over the next 40 years, the dollar will no longer serve as the global reserve currency. Having just returned from China, Dimon added, “The Chinese are not afraid; don’t expect them to bow to America.”
Currently, markets are pricing in two interest rate cuts totaling 50 basis points by the end of 2025—a forecast aligned with the Federal Reserve’s official dot plot projections. Additionally, the latest FOMC minutes, which revealed policymakers’ concerns over persistent inflationary pressures, played a significant role in shaping these expectations.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that he would support rate cuts later this year if tariffs remain around an average of 10%. However, his support hinges on inflation moving toward the Fed’s 2% target and the labor market maintaining its current strength.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley projects that the U.S. dollar could weaken by approximately 9% by mid-2026, citing a slowdown in U.S. economic growth and an anticipated 175 basis point reduction in the Fed’s interest rates. The bank also forecasts that 10-year Treasury yields will reach 4% by the end of 2025 but fall sharply in 2026 as rates decline further. Both Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan hold a bearish outlook on the dollar, expecting safe-haven currencies such as the euro, yen, and Swiss franc to benefit the most from its weakness.
In this context, market participants are closely watching key economic data in the week ahead. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for release on Monday, followed by the Non-Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday. However, the main highlight will be Friday’s May Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which has exceeded expectations over the past two months. A similar result this time would signal continued strength in the labor market.
Given the Fed’s focus on inflation risks, special attention will likely be paid to the average hourly earnings growth. If wage growth remains above 3%, the market may begin to reprice some of its expectations for rate cuts—especially if the ISM reports also indicate improved economic activity in line with strong S&P Global readings. Such a scenario could pave the way for a renewed strengthening of the U.S. dollar.
Alongside the data releases, a series of speeches from key Federal Reserve officials—including Goolsbee (Chicago), Bostic (Atlanta), Logan (Dallas), and Harker (Philadelphia)—are expected. These remarks could further shape market expectations regarding the future path of monetary policy.
