6A Swing Long Trade idea based on supply and demand, intermarket analysis, COT positioning and cross market valuation. Following a structured approach with clear entry, risk management, and confluence factors.
6AH2030 trade ideas
Bullish AUDUSD Trade IdeaThe AUDUSD pair is showing strong signs of bullish momentum as we anticipate further upside potential. With an overall positive outlook on the Australian Dollar and supportive technical indicators, this pair is poised for a potential rally. Watch for favorable market conditions that could drive the price higher in the coming sessions.
Australian Dollar Futures: Key Levels and Bullish PotentialToday, we will analyze the Australian Dollar Futures. On the weekly chart, we may already be witnessing the end of the corrective bearish movement, as we have seen a break of the previous lows at 0.6184. Technically, we have also closed above the EMA5 and EMA10, which suggests potential bullish momentum. However, I believe it's still premature to call a long-term bottom just yet.
What I would like to see next is a clear and distinct five-wave structure on the daily chart. This would indicate that the price could potentially close the week above the EMA50, currently at 0.6476. If this scenario plays out, I anticipate that the Australian Dollar could start a strong upward rally against the U.S. Dollar, aiming for a target at least around 0.8006.
Australian dollar is on the riseLooks like we have technical sounding off here! Price action has started the higher move. We have an inverted head and shoulders which price action has broken through already and heading higher! Price action is bouncing from a support level, it couldn't break it down, so it is heading higher from it! We have confirmation of higher prices! Trendline break on the lower time frames! Looks like everything is being confirmed for higher prices!!!
LONG ON AUSTRALIAN FUTURESWe are currently at the support level on Australian Futures. The Commercials are long and the retailers are short compared to their past 156-week behavior. Look to go long on AUDXXX and short on XXXAUD. Follow Luminis Research on LinkedIn and Instagram
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 7-11th: AUDUSDAUD | AUDUSD:
Look at the Weekly TF. Price is sitting in the +FVG, therefore my bias for the week is bullish.
I'm only interested in longs at this point.
Should price close hard below the +FVG, then that invalidates my bias. I will start to look for sell setups.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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Downside Ahead for Aussie - COT Strategy Short DISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Australian Dollar (6A)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6A if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
OI Analysis: Last 3 weeks of price rally has seen OI increasing while the CM's have been getting out of their longs. This is bearish.
ADX: Pinch forming.
Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for this currency to go down to early October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: POIV, %R & Stochastic Sell Signals
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Is Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) on the verge of collapse?
This is CoT index of Australian Dollars. As you can see every time Commercials(blue line) are in long term(3-year) negative extreme AND Retailers(green line) are in positive extreme, the asset tanks.
The vertical blue lines are the past identical situations. The last time we had this condition was September 2017 which resulted in multi-year downward momentum.
Here is the commercials net position. The last time they were negative in net positions was July 2020. which resulted in AUD going down up to now. Now they are negative again.
This is Retailers net positions. Interesting part is whenever their net position is around 10,000, AUDUSD seems to go down.
On top of that the 5, 10, and 15-year seasonality trends indicate that the market typically reaches its peak around July 24. Therefore, it is expected to decline from that point onward.
6A, Potential Long to setup on watchlistOn watchlist, Waiting to see if we form some good levels to risk off and get some good initiating momentum.
6A Wedge Bottom, Higher Low MTRPossible trend reversal.
Higher low MTR, seeing on many USD Pairs in EU Session.
Possible major retrace or at least a scalp to prior supports
AUD Futures - 4/8/2024Weekly engulfment and using the COT report there is an area where commercials and non commercial players in the market have crowded the market.
After the weekly engulfment i used a pull back to go long on the AUD futures
The weekly engulfment was caused by the US NFP report, currently waiting for the CPI report as we speak this week
AUSSIE DOLLAR FUTURES 6A SHORT SELLWaiting for instrument to reject of the weekly zone.
Then I will look to sell from that zone.
Selling only after the break below the HMA and the retest of the liquidity/weekly rejection zone
This will most likely take a month or two to be realized
**This is just my trading thought process and does not constitute as financial advice.
**Please trade with proper risk management*
i will be be anticipating a weak Australian Dollarafter a weekly fill in the SIBI, I will be expecting a drop in Australian Dollar. I will be expecting it to go below the daily lows highlighted in the image.
AU projected target of 0.6600With China economic news, US election news, and NFP this upcoming Friday, we have a lot of fundamental events moving the markets. We just recently broke a LH on AU. I'm looking for a projected target of 0.6600
We will plan accordingly with whatever the market shows us and stick to our trading plans
We expect the ceiling of 0.6600 to break upwards.A support zone has formed between 0.6515 and 0.6550. There is a lot of potential demand in this area that could push the price higher.
According to the conditions of the chart, it is very difficult to reduce the price below the range of 0.6500, but if this happens, without a doubt, the price target of 0.6450 will be considered by the sellers, but when the price reaches this level, we will face many demands.
Therefore, with the conditions in the chart, only buying is suggested. We expect the ceiling of 0.6600 to break upwards.
Accumulation before the level, free zone after the levelAccumulation before the level, free zone after the level
Aussie Dollar Short4 hour chart trend and momentum are down.
1 hour trend and momentum are down
15 min supply zone is hit and TrendCloud signal to go short has been produced.
If you would like to see the trade plan for the new TrendCloud System then click the link in my profile and I will send it to you.
Works like a charm :)
Chris Juliano
TrendCloud Trading
New lows for Aussie Dollar Futures Coming? CME Australian dollar futures have pulled back to the neckline of the recent head and shoulders pattern, which presents bears with a formidable selling opportunity. Recent strength in the USD has certainly been a boon to Australian dollar futures, and with the influx of encouraging economic data in the U.S.over the past few weeks, it appears likely that strength will persist. Moreover, greater confidence in the breakdown of Aussie dollar futures can be drawn with the increased selling pressure on the break through the neckline on the right shoulder. Over the course of the next few weeks, it is likely that the neckline will begin to act as resistance if prices indeed accelerate lower.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Aussie Dollar Shorting Opportunity Today we broke out of a 4 hour consolidation pattern and also broke through previous structure.
4 hour and 1 hour charts are in a downtrend.
1 hour chart has strong momentum to the downside.
And we have pulled back into a 1 hour supply zone hitting the 2nd ADR checkpoint on our TrendCloud System.
Let's see if we can hit T1 and then trail the last contract.
If you want to learn this setup and take advantage of extended trends that reach its Average Daily Range then just click the link in my profile.
See you in the next video :)
Chris Juliano
AUDUSD ( M6A1! Futures ) Weekly Outlook..... BEARISHI was surprised by the strength of the USD last week, and it lead to a flawed view of the AUD market. The market was weaker than expected, and has potentially turned bearish.
Let the market unfold on Monday, and wait for clarity.
Leave a comment and I will reply directly and promptly! Thank you.
May profits be upon you.
6A1 CMEA minor forecast on trigger levels for 6A1. So the major idea is Long, judging by D1 trend. So i showed few levels at the bottom where the price may show some reaction
AUDUSD ( M6A1!, AUD Futures ) Weekly Outlook.... BULLISHCheck out the video, and please leave a comment.
Do you agree with the analysis, or no?
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May profits be upon you.
