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6E1! trade ideas

Bearish Euro Futures Trade IdeaEuro futures are showing a bearish outlook amid mixed economic signals and continued challenges in the Eurozone economy. Ongoing concerns over lower growth forecasts, subdued inflation, and recent dollar strength are likely to keep the Euro under pressure. This trade idea targets a move down to key support levels as Euro futures potentially continue their downward trend. Stops are placed above recent highs to manage risk, while focusing on a sustained bearish move given the current market sentiment.
CME:6EZ2024Short
by trader9224
M6E: Staking an Opinion on the US ElectionCME: Micro EUR/USD Futures ( CME_MINI:M6E1! ) All eyes are on the November 5th U.S. presidential election. The stake can’t be higher. A bad outcome could lead to reshaping the balance of world power, an escalation of the geopolitical crises underway, and disrupting the social stability in the U.S. and beyond. Here on TradingView, I want to address this question: How would the U.S. election impact financial investment? A Lookback from the 2022 U.S. Midterm Election On August 17, 2022, I published “Market Impacts of the US Mid-term Elections, which broke down the possible election outcomes into two categories: • “One-Party Rule”, where Democrats controlled the White House and the Congress • “Divided Government”, where Republicans retook either the House or the Senate and created effective challenges to the Administration’s political agenda I analyzed how each asset class would fare under these two scenarios. My conclusion was that the four mega spending bills passed in the first two years would pump $4 trillion in the U.S. economy and would pop up the stock market. At the time of that story, the S&P 500 stood at 4,264. Last Friday, it settled at 5,808, up 36%. Prediction Markets, Opinion Polls and the DJT Stock With the upcoming election, my main question can be broken down into two: • What asset class would fare well if Trump wins? • Would there be any investment instrument help us express our market view? What if Harris win? The election is a binary option with only two outcomes. We could combine them in one question with Yes or No answer. A No for Trump is equivalent to a Yes to Harris. To start our analysis, we need to assess the winning odds of each candidate. Many data sources exist to help. Each tells a part of the story, but all have their own flaws. In my opinion, the prediction markets are preferrable to opinion polls. Millions of people wager on the election outcome on Polymarket, with the money pool amounting to $2.5 billion. This is a real deal as people put money where their mouth is. Currently, Polymarket predicts that Trump has 65.1% odds of winning the election, where Harris has a 34.9% chance. How does it work? • If you believe in Trump, you could put down 65 cents for a recreational bet to vote Yes. When he wins, you get $1 back, and if he loses, you lose the bet. • If you are in favor of Harris, you could put down 35 cents to vote No for Trump. You also get $1 back if Harris wins and will say goodbye to 35 cents if she loses. Many readers are not comfortable with an “All or Nothing” trade and may not be allowed to participate in a betting market. Fortunately, there are investment-graded alternatives. Trump Media & Technology Group Corp ( NASDAQ:DJT ) is a publicly traded company listed on the Nasdaq market. Its main owner is Donald J. Trump with an 84% stake, and its main asset is TrueSocial. My hypothesis: DJT stock price shall move up (down) along with the rise (fall) of Trump’s winning odds. With so many unprecedented events happening, we should be able to validate this assumption easily. Let’s look back in the campaign timeline in the past four months, and see how Polymarket and DJT stock price responded to these events: (1) On June 27th, the first presidential debate took place. It’s generally viewed that the current President performed poorly against his opponent. My rating: Positive on Trump • Polymarket: Trump’s odds increase from 59.5% to 67.0% (+7.5%) • DJT: Stock price moved from $25 to $39 (+56%) (2) On July 13th, an attempted assassination on Donald Trump wounded him and killed a bystander in Pennsylvania. Rating: Strong Positive • Polymarket from 59% to 71% (+12%) and DJT from $29 to $41(+41%) (3) On July 24th, President Biden withdrew his presidential candidacy. On August 3rd, Kamala Harris became the Democrats nominee after a roll call to party delegates secured a majority vote. Rating: Negative on Trump • Polymarket from 62% to 45% (-17%) and DJT from $41 to $21 (-49%) (4) On September 10th, the second presidential debate with Trump and Harris took place. Many viewed that Harris performed better than expected. Rating: Negative on Trump • Polymarket from 52% to 49% (-3%) and DJT from $18 to $12 (-33%) (5) On October 20th, Trump worked a shift in a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania, making fries and handing out food to mobile customers. Rating: Very Positive • Polymarket from 55% to 65% (+10%) and DJT from $20 to $39 (+95%) The above analysis shows that DJT is positively correlated to the Polymarket winning odds. Therefore, we could use DJT as a stock market proxy for Trump’s chance of winning the presidential election on November 5th. For anyone owning a stock brokerage account, he could give his approval to Trump by buying DJT. Harris became presidential nominee in less than 3 months, and there isn’t a stock symbol closely linked to her. Therefore, for anyone leaning towards her, he could deliver a disapproval to Trump by shorting DJT. DJT Correlation with Other Financial Instruments Keep in mind that DJT is a single stock with very volatile prices. Its low market valuation opens DJT vulnerable to stock manipulation. A prudent investor may want to consider other assets that move in line with DJT but are less volatile. I looked into a number of financial instruments. Here is what I founded: US stock market indexes Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have no correlation with the stock prices of DJT Gold and Bitcoin have no correlation with the stock prices of DJT US Dollar Index is positively correlated with the stock prices of DJT, while the Euro-USD Exchange Rate is negatively correlated with the stock prices of DJT Let’s focus on the ones with statistically significant correlations. The dollar index moved in line with Trump’s winning odds. Investors are not necessarily in favor of a Trump win. In my opinion, his America-First policy would help uphold the value of the dollar. Meanwhile, an untested Harris administration means more uncertainties to dollar investors. The Euro-USD is negatively correlated with DJT because of the quoting convention in the FX market. Quoting as number of dollars per euro, dollar appreciation means that each unit of euro could buy fewer dollars, resulting in the declining exchange rate quotation. The opposite also holds true. Trade Setup with the Micro Euro-USD Futures Like trading DJT, a trader could express his political opinions in this election using CME Micro Euro-USD futures ($M6E). M6E contract has a notional value of 12,500 euros. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $280. The December contract (M6EZ4) was settled at $1.0817 last Friday. At the current price, each contract is valued at $13,521.25. The M6E contract is very liquid, with a daily trade volume of 18,096 and an Open Interest of 14,375. Along the line with our preceding discussion, possible trade setup are as follows: • A Trump victory could strengthen the dollar, leading to a decline in M6E quotation. Therefore, a vote for Trump could equal to a short position in Micro Euro-USD futures. • A Harris victory could weaken the dollar, leading to an increase in M6E quotation. A vote for Harris is a No to Trump, which could equal to a long position in M6E. I do not attempt to sway anyone’s vote to one direction or the other. Both views could find application using M6E. Unlike Polymarket, trading futures is not an All-or-Nothing bet. If you are wrong, you may incur losses in the trade, but not necessarily lose everything. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:6E1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
2
Directional bias for trade filtering on lower TF , or 70 win %Hi there! I’m excited to share a system I’ve developed called 'Zones.' These zones offer a directional bias, helping predict where price is likely to move next with a current follow-through rate of 70%. In other words, if the price exits one of the orange zones, there’s a 70% chance it will reach the next orange zone, at least touching the boundary, rather than reversing back and closing within the previous zone. You can trade these zones directly for a 70% win rate, or use them as a directional bias to complement your existing strategy on a 1-minute or 5-minute chart (which I highly recommend). Important note: When the price briefly exits a zone but doesn’t close outside it, this is not considered a valid exit — we call this a "spike" or wick. For the 70% win rate to apply, the price must close outside the zone. These zones are the result of years of research, experimental machine learning development, and collaboration with colleagues who have decades of experience in physics. And the best part? I’m offering them completely free. The real challenge isn’t just following a system with a 70% win rate — it’s whether you can overcome your own psychology and avoid sabotaging your success. If you had a winning strategy, what’s really stopping you from being consistently profitable? Often, the answer is ourselves. My zones are built on theoretical thermodynamics and mathematical proofs that help predict the likely trajectory of a system, similar to particle movement in physics. Keep in mind, the orange zone line represents an unpredictable area — while the price often touches the line, there are instances where it may not reach it. Due to the inherent limitations of modern physics, this zone remains an unsolvable area, adding a layer of uncertainty to the system. I promise, none of the paid indicators, whether it’s LuxAlgo or anything from a Pine Wizard or trading “guru,” can match the accuracy of these zones. But don’t take my word for it — try them for yourself and see the results!
CME:6E1!
by user2839409
EURO, EURUSD Bullish Week Ahead**BIG BOYS BIAS (CFTC COT INDEX REPORT) Commercials: Net Buyers Retail Traders: Net Sellers Non-Commercials: In-Trend This suggests that institutional "Big Money" players were positioning for a Bullish week, while retail traders were net Sellers Relative to previous position. In a zero-sum game, this typically signals a potential Bullish move for this week. **EURO Value Correlation to USD >We are now in the Oversold region Signaling for a bullish trend week. Note: Every time we get Oversold Readings (Green Vertical Lines) we always get a Bullish Move **Election Year Seasonality forecast >Bullish until early next Week. Technicals: >Price already re-tested the Daily Supply Zone last Friday, preparing for a Bullish Week ahead. >Price could reach to the opposing Supply Zone that initiated the bearish imbalance. OTHERS: >Scalpers can ride the bullish trending week >Long term traders can position for a Sell for next week. ***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.***
CME:6E1!Long
by TradersPod
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 7-11th: EURUSD EURUSD is at an OTE level currently, and may find support for higher prices. I am on the lookout for BUY setups, as I do not want to take shorts in this market until prices breaks below 1.0940. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME:6E1!Long
by RT_Money
1
EURO FUTURES, EURUSD FUNDAMENTAL WEEKLY OUTLOOK What we have here is the fundamental outlook from the Net-positions of Big Fund Managers. Fund Managers are normally trend following. Every time there is a negative or positive divergence between the price chart and the Fund Managers Net positions, Price usually follows next forming the trend. Fund Managers net positions moves the market because they have big reportable positions to the CFTC. We are currently approaching a Daily and Weekly Supply zone which could be the cause of price falling down in the next few weeks. Also, Euro is negatively correlated to DXY, wherein we are currently in the oversold reading. ***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.***
CME:6E1!Short
by TradersPod
Options Blueprint Series: Bear Put Diagonal Fly on Euro FuturesIntroduction Euro FX EUR/USD Futures are a key instrument in the futures market, allowing traders to speculate on the future value of the Euro against the US Dollar. Trading Euro FX EUR/USD Futures provides exposure to the currency markets, enabling traders to hedge risk or capitalize on market movements. Key Contract Specifications: Contract Size: 125,000€ Tick Size: 0.00005 Tick Value: $6.25 Margin Requirements: Approximately $2,100 (varies by broker and market conditions and changes through time) These contract specs are crucial for understanding the potential profit and loss scenarios when trading Euro Futures. The tick size and value help determine the smallest price movement and its monetary impact, while the margins indicate the amount of capital required to initiate a position. Strategy Explanation The Bear Put Diagonal Fly is an advanced options strategy designed to profit from a bearish market outlook. This strategy involves buying and selling put options with different expiration dates and strike prices, creating a diagonal spread. Bear Put Diagonal Fly Breakdown: Buy 1 Put (longer-term expiration): This long put provides downside protection over a longer period, benefiting from a significant decline in the underlying asset. Sell 1 Put (intermediate-term expiration): This short put helps to offset the cost of the long put, generating premium income and partially financing the trade. Buy 1 Put (shorter-term expiration): This additional long put offers further downside protection, particularly for a shorter duration, enhancing the overall bearish exposure. Purpose of the Strategy: The Bear Put Diagonal Fly is structured to take advantage of a declining market with specific price movements over different time frames. The staggered expiration dates allow the trader to benefit from time decay and volatility changes. Advantages: Cost Reduction: The premium received from selling the put helps to reduce the overall cost. Enhanced Bearish Exposure: The additional shorter-term put provides extra exposure. Flexibility: The strategy can be adjusted or rolled over as market conditions change. Potential Risks: Time Decay: If the market does not move as expected, the long puts may lose value due to time decay. Volatility Risk: Changes in market volatility can impact the value of the options. Application on Euro Futures To apply the Bear Put Diagonal Fly strategy on Euro Futures, careful selection of strike prices and expiration dates is crucial. This strategy involves three options positions with different expirations to optimize the potential profit from a bearish market move. Selecting Strike Prices and Expiration Dates: Long Put (longer term): Choose a strike price above the current market price of Euro Futures to benefit from a significant decline. Short Put (intermediate term): Select a strike price closer to the market price to maximize premium income while reducing the overall cost of the strategy. Long Put (shorter term): Pick a strike price below the market price to provide additional bearish exposure. Why This Strategy is Suitable for Euro Futures: Market Conditions: As seen on the upper chart, the current market outlook for the Euro suggests potential downside due to technical factors, making a bearish strategy appropriate. Volatility: Euro Futures often experience significant price movements, which can be advantageous for the Bear Put Diagonal Fly strategy, as it thrives on volatility. Flexibility: The staggered expiration dates allow for adjustments and management of the trade over time, accommodating changing market conditions. Futures (underlying using the 6E1! continuous ticker symbol) Entry, Target, and Stop-Loss Prices: Short Entry: 1.09000 Target: 1.08200 Stop-Loss: 1.09400 Options Trade Setup (using Futures September cycle with 6EU2024 ticker symbol): The Bear Put Diagonal Fly on Euro Futures involves a structured approach to setting up the trade. Here’s a step-by-step guide to executing this strategy: 1. Buy 1 Put (Sep-6 expiration): Strike Price: 1.095 Premium Paid: 0.0102 (or $1,275 per contract) 2. Sell 1 Put (Aug-23 expiration): Strike Price: 1.09 Premium Received: 0.0061 (or $762.5 per contract) 3. Buy 1 Put (Aug-9 expiration): Strike Price: 1.085 Premium Paid: 0.0021 (or $262.5 per contract) Risk Calculation: Net Cost = ($1,275 + $262.5) - $762.5 = $775 Risk: The initial net cost of the strategy. Risk = $775 Trade and Risk Management Effective risk management is essential when trading options strategies like the Bear Put Diagonal Fly on Euro Futures. Effectively managing the Bear Put Diagonal Fly on Euro Futures is crucial to optimize potential profits and mitigate risks. Here are common guidelines for managing this options strategy: Using Stop-Loss Orders: In the Bear Put Diagonal Fly strategy, setting a stop-loss at 1.0940 ensures that if Euro Futures move against the expected direction, the losses are contained. Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure: The Bear Put Diagonal Fly is a defined risk strategy, meaning the maximum loss is known upfront and limited to the initial net cost. Precise Entries and Exits: Timing the Market: Entering and exiting trades at the right time is crucial. Using technical analysis tools such as UFO Support or Resistance levels can help identify optimal entry and exit points. Monitor Time Decay: Keep a close eye on how the time decay (theta) impacts the value of the options. As the short put approaches expiration, assess whether to roll it to a later date or let it expire. Volatility Changes: Changes in market volatility can affect the strategy’s profitability. Rolling Options: If the market moves unfavorably, rolling the options to different strike prices or expiration dates can help manage risk and maintain the strategy’s viability. Regular Check-ins: Review the position regularly to ensure it aligns with the expected market movement. Adjust if the market conditions change or if the position starts to deviate from the initial plan. Profit Targets: Set predefined profit targets and consider taking profits when these targets are reached. Exit Strategies: Have a clear exit plan for different scenarios, at least for when the stop-loss or target is hit. By implementing robust risk management practices, traders can enhance their ability to manage potential losses and improve the overall effectiveness of their trading strategies. Managing the Bear Put Diagonal Fly requires active monitoring and the flexibility to adjust the positions as market conditions evolve. This proactive approach helps in maximizing potential returns while mitigating risks. Conclusion The Bear Put Diagonal Fly is an advanced options strategy tailored for a bearish outlook on Euro Futures. By strategically selecting options with different expiration dates and strike prices, this strategy offers a cost-effective way to capitalize on anticipated declines in the Euro while managing risk. Summary of the Bear Put Diagonal Fly Strategy: Cost Reduction: The short put helps to offset the cost of the long puts, making the strategy more affordable. Enhanced Bearish Exposure: The additional long put provides extra downside protection. Flexibility: The staggered expiration dates allow for adjustments and trade management over time. Why This Strategy Could Be Beneficial: The current market conditions suggest potential downside for Euro Futures, making a bearish strategy like the Bear Put Diagonal Fly appropriate. The defined risk nature of the strategy ensures that maximum potential losses are known upfront. Effective trade and risk management techniques can further enhance the strategy’s performance and mitigate potential risks. By understanding the mechanics of the Bear Put Diagonal Fly and applying it to Euro Futures, traders can leverage this advanced options strategy to navigate bearish market conditions with greater confidence and precision. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6E1!Education
by traddictiv