6J1! trade ideas
6JH23 Short 1/19/23I am working on better understanding supply and demand, as well as analyzing trends across time frames. I have noticed a weakness of mine is missing the forest for the trees, for example finding a short opportunity but the longer term and even medium term trend is up.
HTF- downtrend
MTF- uptrend
LTF- downtrend to neutral
In this trade I was looking for a roughly 3R scalp. It broke the microKPL on the 30 minute chart. I went ahead and put the trade on with my OCO stop and limit order and went to bed.
When I awoke, price had moved 2/3 of the way to price target in my favor. We did get a retest of KPL breakdown area and that entry would have had an even better R:R, but I was asleep so it's all good.
I moved to the 5 minute chart and put a downtrend line on the top of the candles to close on a break.
I manually closed when it started to show signs of stalling just above the PT.
Timing on taking profit ended up being good and I had a nice 2.5R trade.
*Acronyms*
HTF - Higher Time Frame
MTF- Medium Time Frame
LTF- Lower Time Frame
KPL- Key Price Level
PT- Profit Target
Yen's gains look cappedThe end of an era
The global stock of bonds yielding sub-zero yields has been erased at the start of 2023, after peaking at US$18.4Trn in late 20201. The fight over inflation has caused central banks from the US, Europe, UK and across the world to exit their low to negative interest rate policy. Even the Bank of Japan – the world’s last dovish monetary authority- has left the sub-zero club and is inching towards normalisation.
BOJ policy shift
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) unexpectedly widened its target range for the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yields (JGB) from ±25Bps to ±50Bps at its December 20th meeting. Since then, the surge in 10-year JGB yields has caused a sharp rise of additional fixed rate and fixed amount purchases by the BOJ amounting to ¥17Trn. Market participants are speculating that BOJ will be forced to tighten policy even more in 2023.
Political pressure alongside costly intervention forced the BOJ to tweak policy
In 2022 – despite the BOJ keeping the Japanese 0–10-year curve fixed, sharply rising yields globally led the Yen to depreciate to a 24-year low, thereby stimulating Japanese net exports. This placed direct upward pressure on Japanese inflation via higher import prices. Japan was no longer able to sustain its yield curve control policy against a backdrop of ever-rising global yields because the interventions it needed to make in its government bond markets to defend the rise in JGB yields were becoming too costly. In addition, pressure from the Kishida administration due to concern about Yen’s depreciation pushing up prices and inflicting further damage on cabinet approval ratings.
Yen gains look capped as policy framework likely to be maintained for longer
The change in policy prompted the yen to appreciate to ¥130 versus the US dollar, a level last seen in early August. The Yen’s current rally marks a sharp turnaround from last year where investors were shorting the yen owing to the widening interest rate gap between the US and Japan. As illustrated below, an unwind -63%2 in net speculative short positioning helped drive the appreciation in the Yen towards the end of the year.
If the BOJ were to make additional adjustments, it could spur further Yen appreciation. However, we feel the BOJ probably wants to keep its modified framework in place for a longer time frame, especially now that Yen versus USD stands at more comfortable levels. This was evident from its announcement of expansion of JGB purchases to ensure yields stay in the new range.
Signs that current inflation isn’t sustainable
The more concerning reason is wages are failing to keep up with inflation. In November, inflation adjusted pay slide 3.8% which was far worse than October’s 1.2% drop, marking the worst reading in 8 years3. 2023 wage growth depends largely on the results of annual spring negotiations between corporate management and labour unions. We expect bigger raises in base pay this year than in 2022, however its likely to keep up with inflation as the global economy slows.
Japanese economy could avoid a recession in 2023
Japan’s inflation is likely to remain low in 2023, resulting in less need to tighten policy further. Japan is likely to avoid a recession in 2023. As it has yet to benefit from the re-opening trade that the Western economies have witnessed over the last two years. Consumption is likely to benefit from the economic re-opening and capex intentions are likely to rise on the back of pent-up demand for goods and services.
While goods exports could soften due to the global economic slowdown, services exports are poised to steadily improve throughout the year, led by inbound spending following the lifting of border controls by the Japanese government in October 2022. The government also launched a new economic stimulus package in October to tame inflation and cushion the blow from rising raw material prices which should support the economic recovery in 2023.
Factors underpinning the resilience in Japanese equity market performance
In the face of the global equity market turmoil in 2022, Japanese equities4 performance has been fairly resilient (-11% versus -20%5 for global equities). Japan generates a large portion (nearly 52.7%6) of its revenues from global markets. So, a weaker Yen supported its profit outlook thereby making Japanese exporters more competitive than global peers. In 2022, a number of companies announced increased dividend pay-out ratios as well as share buybacks, with the intention of protecting shareholder returns amidst the global market volatility. Pay-out ratios rose to 63% from 40%7 at the start of 2022.
JPY Basket - ShortDear All,
I believe all JPY pairs needs to long as JPY will be week again.
Please consider your Risk Management and SL properly.
Best Regards
Brando
BULLISH TRADE FOR 6JH23 - JPY/USDJapan are to revise statement with central bank to water down price target(source Reuters). If this is the case this is significant and i would expect the JPY to continue its trand up against the US dollar, taking out weekly and monthly highs and targeting the purple box which is the first area of confluence. This sits just below the 22Q3 high and the 50% retace of the entire 2022 move down against the dollar.
Long 6J Long JPY against the dollar played out. Expecting some consolodation around these levels before continuation.
JPY futures hit Cosmic Gravity 1D supportCosmic Gravity is giving bullish signals on the 1D Japanese Yen futures chart as price breaks through important resistance levels after hitting major support. Stop loss is set 2% from the current price and take profit at the top of the support channel.
Land of Rising Sun and Falling YenCME: Micro USD/JPN Futures ( CME_MINI:M6J1! )
On September 21st, the Fed raised interest rate for the fifth time. The very next day, Bank of Japan decided to keep the country’s short-term interest rate at -0.10%. On November 3rd, the Fed raised another 75 bps, and the Fed Funds rate is now 3.75-4.00%.
Interest rate spread between the two countries now reaches 4%. With Japan determining to stay accommodative, the rate spread could be over 500 basis points by early 2023.
This is show time for carry trade, a popular and time-honored forex strategy.
What is Carry Trade?
A currency carry trade is a strategy that involves borrowing from a low yielding currency to fund the purchase of a currency that provides higher interest income. This strategy attempts to capture the rate spread, which can be substantial with the use of leverage.
Carry trade is one of the most popular trading strategies in the forex market. In essence, it is as simple as "buy low, sell high”. Popular carry trades involve buying currency pairs such as AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY, since they have decent rate spreads over time.
Profit of carry trade largely comes from its ability to earn interest. Income is accrued every day for holding long carry positions. Below is a typical daily interest accrual formula:
Daily Interest = (IR(long) – IR(short)) * NV / 365
where:
IR = interest rate
NV= notional value
Another source of profit results from the exchange rate changes from the time a trade is initiated to the time it is closed, which could be illustrated by the following example.
DIY Guide for A Synthetic Carry Trade
Assumptions:
1. You have built up $100,000 in home equity from your $500,000 house
2. Foreign currencies can be bought and sold with your bank, without restrictions
3. Home equity loan costs 7.2% annually
4. Borrowing rate for Japanese Yen is 2.2%
Home equity loan rate rose sharply due to the Fed rate hikes. However, since your bank acquires cheap Yen from Japan, they could charge 2.2% and still make money. When you pledge your home as collateral, your yen loan is low risk from the bank’s perspective.
Trade Initiation:
• At USD/JPY rate of 115 (using rate at the end of last year), you borrow 11,500,000 yen from the bank for 1 year, and immediately exchange it into USD 100,000.
• You buy a 1-year Jumbo CD (certificate of deposit) from the bank, which yields 4.2% with a minimum purchase of $100,000.
Trade Closing:
• One year later, unwind the trade.
• Turn your CD in and get $104,200 from the bank.
• You exchange Dollar back to Yen at 150 (recent rate) and get 15,630,000. After paying back 11,500,000 in principal and 253,000 in interest, you net 3,877,000 yen.
• One-year return is 33.7%. Just 2% comes from rate spread (4.2%-2.2%). The rest derives from yen depreciation, which allows you to pay back the loan with fewer dollars.
In this example, we do not use leverage as home equity is in place to fully guarantee the loan. By borrowing with yen, we effectively lower the home equity loan rate from 7.2% to 2.2%. Instead of putting it in CD, you could find more productive use of this low-cost capital, such as paying down a 20% credit card debt.
Usually, interest rate spread is the main income source for carry trades with exchange rate gain as a bonus. With yen dropping to 32-year low, the latter becomes very prominent this year. Borrowing yen from the bank is equivalent to shorting the yen futures.
Hedging the Carry Trade
Most traders work with a forex broker to take on carry trades. Their trades are usually unhedged. Large leverage is used to amplify the returns from small interest rate spreads. In today’s volatile markets, naked carry trades could be very risky. Trades using 50- and 100-time leverage could easily blow up if exchange rate moves against you.
In my opinion, sizable USD/JPY interest rate spread could stay for a considerable period of time, at least throughout 2023. However, Yen may have already bottomed at 150. Bank of Japan has intervened the market by emergency bond buying.
It is a good time to do USD/JPY carry trades. However, it would be wise to protect your positions in the event of a yen rally. Yen lost some 25% against the dollar so far this year. If it rebounds just 5%, it could wipe out all the returns from interest rate spread.
CME Micro USD/JPY futures contract ( CME_MINI:M6J1! ) has a notional value of $10,000. At settlement price of 144.71 last Friday, each December contract is worth 1,447,100 yen. Initial margin is 45,000 yen per lot, or approximately $311.
If you expect yen to appreciate, consider shorting the futures. As it is quoted yen per dollar, rising yen will result in each dollar exchanging for fewer of it.
Happy trading.
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
1D JPY futures hits Cosmic Gravity supportJPY futures price falls hard to Cosmic Gravity "S6 Line" (🧐) and reverses to head for a "Support Channel" test. Watch how price interacts with this important level as it usually serves as a signal to what's to come.
YEN: The Knight in Shining Armor ArrivesThe Japanese Yen is in uncharted territory with the Dollar absolutely POUNDING the Yen into submission. Today was the first time since June 1998 that the Bank of Japan announced it would purchase Yen in an attempt to slow down the depreciation of the Yen.
Nobody gives a damn about Forex, so why is this important? Well 1) Yen makes up the second largest weighting in DXY 2) June 1998 marked a temporary top in DXY . Will history repeat itself? I'm not convinced. Yet.
1) Yen is going to have to confirm its monthly hammer
2) Yen is going to need to see some bullish continuation back above the .618 fib and hold it as support. There's a high volume node right at the .618 fib, so it'll be tough resistance to overcome.
If these conditions are met, that should send the Yen spiraling upwards like it did in 1998, and mark a temporary top in the DXY allowing some breathing room for stocks, cryptos, and metals. Will the Yen save millions of portfolios? Hmm...
JAPANESE YEN Futures (6J1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.0071705
Pivot: 0.0070675
Support : 0.0069015
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving along the ascending trendline and RSI is showing an ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price may rise from the pivot at 0.0070675 where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement is to the 1st resistance at 0.0071705 where the 38.2% fibonacci retracement is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 0.0069015 where the swing low support is.
Fundamentals: The DXY is droppind, combined with the positive BSI manufacturing index and PPI Y/Y, we would hold a bullish bias.
JAPANESE YEN FUTURES (6J1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop Type : Bearish Drop
Resistance : 0.0072125
Pivot: 0.0070865
Support : 0.0070165
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku indicator, and within the descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from pivot at 0.0070865 where the current price and 78.6% fibonacci projection are to the 1st support at 0.0070165 where the 100% fibonacci projection is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 0.0072125 where the previous swing lows and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: Japan's Average Cash Earnings y/y and Household Spending y/y are out today, both of them are lower than the forecast.
6J1! - Time To Get Very Long Yen6j1! having a nice little bounce here at support to pop back above the 20 year low also a 1:0.618 long term fib extension just below.
This has already had the fear test plunge followed by rocketing automatic rally and now has pulled back to the 20 year low again.
May meander, may pump - who knows really but this is the big one mark my non financial advice words.
My pick for a FX pair is USDJPY because I think DXY has also hit a major top. Idea linked below.
Not advice.
Japanese Yen Futures (6J1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.0074025
Pivot: 0.0073045
Support : 0.0072360
Preferred Case: with the price moving within the descending trendline and crossing below the MA, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop to the pivot at 0.0073045, where the previous swing low is. If the pivot is broken, we can expect the price drop to the 1st support at 0.0072360, where the swing low is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may break the descending tren and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.0074025, where the overlap resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: The Tokyo Core CPI y/y is out today, which is at 2.6%, higher than the expectation, which is good for JPY, therefore, from fundamental view, please take note there's also a possibility that the JPY future may increase.
Japanese Yen Futures (6J1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.0074025
Pivot: 0.0073045
Support : 0.0072360
Preferred Case: with the price moving within the descending trendline and crossing below the MA, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop to the pivot at 0.0073045, where the previous swing low is. If the pivot is broken, we can expect the price drop to the 1st support at 0.0072360, where the swing low is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may break the descending tren and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.0074025, where the overlap resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: The Tokyo Core CPI y/y is out today, which is at 2.6%, higher than the expectation, which is good for JPY, therefore, from fundamental view, please take note there's also a possibility that the JPY future may increase.
Micro USD/JPY FUTURES (M6J!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 138.35
Pivot: 137.05
Support : 135.30
Preferred Case: On the H4, with the price moving within the ascending channel and above ichimpku cloud, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise from the pivot at 136.89, which is in line with the overlap resistance to the 1st resistance at 138.29, where the swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 135.31, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and swing low support are.
Fundamentals: The small but meaningful rise in the US 2-year yield contributed to the rise of USD.
Micro USD/JPY FUTURES (M6J!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 138.35
Pivot: 137.05
Support : 135.30
Preferred Case: On the H4, with the price moving within the ascending channel and above ichimpku cloud, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise from the pivot at 136.89, which is in line with the overlap resistance to the 1st resistance at 138.29, where the swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 135.31, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and swing low support are.
Fundamentals: The small but meaningful rise in the US 2-year yield contributed to the rise of USD.
JAPANESE YEN E-MINI FUTURESBreaking down and landing well with breaking the strong support area and trading underneath and through this simplified technical analysis we note that it will continue to fall to the lowest areas of very strong demand
JAPANESE YEN Futures (6J1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance : 0.0075890
Pivot: 0.0074140
Support : 0.0073120
Preferred Case: On the H4, with the price moving below the ichimoku cloud and breaking the ascending trendline, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 0.0074140, which is in line with the pullback support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection top the 1st support at 0.0073120, where the 100% fibonacci projection, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and overlap support are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to the 1st resistance at 0.0075890, where the swing high is.
Fundamentals: The trade balance of Japan is out today, which is -2.13T, lower than forecast and previous.
MICRO USD/JPY Futures (E71!), H4 Potential for Bullish MomentumType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 138.65
Pivot: 135.31
Support : 130.00
Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku indicator, the MACD histogram is above zero and the RSI moving along the ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price may rise from the pivot at 135.31 where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement is to the 1st resistance at 138.65, where the swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 130.00 where the swing low support is.
Fundamentals: The latest monetary policy statement from the Bank of Japan indicates that the BoJ will continue holding short-term policy interest rates at -0.10% and purchase 10yr JGBs with no upper limit. The BoJ’s commitment to an ultra-loose monetary policy continues to diverge from the other central banks’ path of monetary policy tightening, leading to expectations for the Yen to continue weakening against the other major currencies.
Japanese Yen E-mini Futures (J71!),Type : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.007784
Pivot: 0.007629
Support : 0.007490
Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku indicator and broken out of the descending channel , we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 0.007629 where the overlap resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are. Once there is upside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 0.007784 where the pullback resistance, 127.2% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 0.007490 where the pullback support is.
Fundamentals: Since it was stated that the central bank won’t hesitate to add stimulus if the economy needs it, we have a bullish view on the Japanese Yen.
Japanese Yen E-mini Futures (J71!), Type : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.007784
Pivot: 0.007629
Support : 0.007490
Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku indicator and broken out of the descending channel, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 0.007629 where the overlap resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are. Once there is upside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 0.007784 where the pullback resistance, 127.2% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 0.007490 where the pullback support is.
Fundamentals: Since it was stated that the central bank won’t hesitate to add stimulus if the economy needs it, we have a bullish view on the Japanese Yen.
