Kiwi on the Edge: Sell the Bounce Below 0.6080Among major currencies, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is often viewed as peripheral in global capital flows. Yet it consistently ranks among the world’s top 10 most traded currencies. Its relevance stems from New Zealand’s strong exposure to international trade, especially with China and Australia, and an economy heavily reliant on commodity exports. As a result, the NZD is classified as a "pro-risk" currency, highly sensitive to global cyclical dynamics, interest rate differentials, and Asian demand. It also maintains a strong correlation with the Australian Dollar (AUD), due to similar macroeconomic drivers and trade linkages.
In the FX community, the NZD is often affectionately referred to as the "Kiwi," a nod to the iconic flightless bird native to New Zealand and depicted on the country’s coins. Despite being a smaller player on the geopolitical scene, New Zealand’s currency frequently presents appealing opportunities for FX traders, particularly in times of shifting risk sentiment or commodity market volatility.
With the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) having just announced its latest policy decision, it’s time to reassess the Kiwi’s fundamental landscape, technical backdrop, and market sentiment to refine our directional trading outlook.
Fundamental Outlook: RBNZ holds rates, but easing bias remains
As widely expected, the RBNZ held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 3.25% during its July 9 policy meeting. This pause comes after an aggressive easing cycle that saw the OCR lowered by 225 basis points since August 2024. The move reflects the central bank’s aim to stabilize inflation without undermining the fragile recovery.
The tone of the accompanying statement remains dovish. Policymakers clearly left the door open for further rate cuts later in the year, conditional on continued disinflation and signs of weaker demand. For now, however, inflation is running at a comfortable 2.5% year-over-year, right in the middle of the RBNZ’s 1–3% target band. Meanwhile, the economy has shown some resilience: Q1 2025 GDP posted a quarterly gain of +0.8%, confirming a technical exit from the recession experienced in 2024.
Nonetheless, external headwinds remain a concern. Sluggish data from China (New Zealand’s largest trading partner) continue to cast a shadow over the medium-term outlook. Slower Chinese demand for dairy and meat exports, as well as raw materials, could limit the momentum of New Zealand’s recovery, thereby reinforcing the need for accommodative policy.
Technical Analysis: Key resistance near 0.6080
Technically, the picture has deteriorated significantly on the 6NU2025 contract since Monday, with a sharp downside acceleration toward the psychological 0.60 level. Price is still hovering around this threshold.
Volume profile analysis reveals a clear liquidity gap between 0.6040 and 0.6065, a zone that could be filled before any new directional move unfolds. Just above, a major congestion area emerges around 0.6080, where the point of control (POC) is located. This area represents a key short-term pivot and a potential resistance level, especially as it also sits just above the 10- and 20-day simple moving averages.
As long as price remains capped beneath 0.6080, the bias remains moderately bearish. A rejection in the 0.6060–0.6080 area would confirm resistance and suggest renewed downside risk. However, a decisive daily close above 0.6100 would invalidate the bearish scenario and open the door toward 0.6150 and possibly above. In the near term, the setup favors a cautious bearish stance, but timing remains critical.
Sentiment and Positioning: Retail crowded longs raise red flags
Commitment of Traders (COT) data provides additional context. As of the latest report, non-commercial speculators hold a net long position of approximately +4,150 contracts in the 6N futures. This moderately bullish stance likely reflects the unwinding of prior bearish bets in response to the sustained weakness of the US dollar over the past quarter. Meanwhile, commercial hedgers, typically exporters and importers, remain net short, which is structurally consistent with hedging flows rather than directional speculation.
From a retail perspective, the sentiment skew is more concerning. Aggregated positioning data across FX/CFD brokers shows that nearly 60% of retail traders are long NZD/USD. Some platforms report even more extreme figures, with bullish retail exposure above 80%. Historically, such one-sided positioning often foreshadows downside risk, especially if stop losses are triggered en masse below recent support levels.
Volatility conditions also merit attention. The VIX, Wall Street’s fear index, remains near its annual lows, suggesting a market backdrop of complacency. While this environment typically supports pro-risk currencies like the NZD, the fact that the S&P 500 just notched fresh all-time highs raises the possibility of profit-taking or corrective flows, potentially weighing on risk-correlated assets in the short term.
Trade Idea: Sell the rally toward 0.6060–0.6080
Given the current macro setup, sentiment profile, and technical resistance overhead, a sell-the-bounce approach appears tactically appropriate. We propose the following directional futures trade on the September contract (6NU2025):
Entry Point: Short at 0.6060, to take advantage of a potential fill of the low-volume gap
Stop Loss: 0.6100 on a daily close basis, just above the POC and confluence resistance
Target 1: 0.5985, below the recent swing low
Target 2 (extended): 0.5890, just under the June 23 bottom
This setup aims to capture a continuation of the downtrend that began in early July. It relies on disciplined risk management and realistic target zones, while respecting key technical structures and the crowded long positioning among retail traders. The strategy will be invalidated if prices manage to close above 0.6100 on a daily basis, signaling a shift in near-term momentum.
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When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.com/cme/.
This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
6N1! trade ideas
HORC Short on NUThere is a yearly, monthly and daily divergence on NZDUSD and the yearly low is more likely to taken out,, either the current zone it is in now , or the next zone which is more likely to sponsor the sell, because the first zone has been mitigated and was used to sponsor the last sell and market is currently disrespecting it. SELLS TO COME.
Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 25th: NZDUSD Potential Trade of Week!NZD \ NZDUSD may turn out to be the best setup of the week. Tuesday 8pm EST is the RBNZ Rate Statement. Best to look for setups after that news. But if the current trends hold, I will be looking for sell setups, as the currency has been week for an extended period of time.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Weekly FOREX Forecast: USD Is Strong Vs EUR, GBP, AUD NZDThis is an outlook for the week of Nov 4 - 8th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets: USD Index, EUR, GBP, AUD, and NZD.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NZDUSD Bullish Week**NZD Dollar Value Correlation to USD
>We are now in the Oversold region Signaling for a bullish trend week.
Note: Every time we get Oversold Readings (Green Vertical Lines) we always get a Bullish Move
**Election Year Seasonality forecast
>Bullish until early next Week.
Technicals:
>Price already tested the Daily Supply Zone last Friday, preparing for a Bullish Week ahead.
>Price could reach to the opposing Supply Zone that initiated the bearish imbalance.
OTHERS:
>Scalpers can ride the bullish trending week
>Long term traders can position for a Sell for next week or position a Long trade at Supply for a retest.
***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.***
NZD Approaches Key Supply Zone: A Potential Short OpportunityThe New Zealand dollar is approaching a critical supply area that has captured our attention, signaling a potential opportunity to set up a short position. This zone is key, and we are closely monitoring for a possible test of this area to confirm our bearish setup. However, it's important to note that the price may reverse before reaching this point of interest, as other correlated currencies against the U.S. Dollar (DXY) have already begun to show signs of reversal.
This correlation between the New Zealand dollar and other currencies in relation to the U.S. Dollar strengthens the likelihood of a potential downturn before our targeted area is tested. As the DXY starts to gain momentum, the pressure on the New Zealand dollar could increase, leading to an earlier-than-expected reversal.
Given these market dynamics, we are prepared to act quickly should the price show signs of turning before reaching our anticipated level. This situation highlights the importance of flexibility and vigilance in our trading strategy, as the interplay between correlated currencies can often signal shifts in market direction.
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Possible Expanding Triangle - New Zealand DollarA possible expanding triangle setup on the 4hour of the NZD. Assuming the US Dollar continues with strength we could possibly see a D wave to around 0.60470 for NZD.
Wave A represents 38.2% of the last downtrend wave in expanding triangle.
Wave B represents 1.272% of wave A in expanding triangle.
Wave C represents 1.272% of wave B in expanding triangle.
Wave D represents 1.272% of wave C in expanding triangle
Wave E represents 1.272% of wave D in expanding triangle.
Please, feel free to rate the analysis. Constructive criticism is how we grow the most! Thank you.
What’s ahead for the dollar?As the year draws to a close, it's an opportune time to evaluate the potential trajectory of the dollar going forward.
From a broader perspective, we anticipate a regime shift for the dollar in 2024, potentially marking significant turning points for the major dollar pairs. Notably, since the 1990s, each instance when real rates crossed the 1% threshold, the dollar experienced an average sustained fall of approximately 18% over around 340 days. The combination of aggressive hikes and lower inflation has now pushed real rates clearly above the 1% mark, but the dollar’s reaction thus far has been rather muted when considering the past 3 reactions.
This observation aligns with our cyclical analysis of the dollar. Historically, the dollar index has demonstrated a recurring cycle of approximately 3.5 years, often bottoming out at the end of most cycles.
Furthermore, the dollar index has recently dipped below the crucial 103 resistance level, a significant benchmark since the 1990s.
In light of a potential weaker dollar in 2024, we're exploring various strategic positions. At present, the NZDUSD pair, in particular, stands out due to its compelling technical setup and policy divergence.
Currently both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are testing their 3-year resistance levels.
Given the current inflation and interest rate scenarios, we find the NZDUSD pair more appealing. New Zealand's inflation rate remains relatively high compared to the US, while their policy rates are almost identical. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained its hawkish stance in the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting, whereas the Federal Reserve has begun hinting at possible rate cuts in 2024. Such divergence in policy should favor the NZDUSD pair as rate differentials shift towards the NZD.
Hence, considering the weaker outlook for the Dollar in 2024, combined with the technical setup in the NZDUSD's price action and the emerging policy divergence, we lean bullish on the NZDUSD. To express this view, we can go long the CME New Zealand Dollar Futures at the current price level of 0.6247, take profit at 0.6800 and stop at 0.6050. Each 0.00005-point move is 5 USD.
With that, we wrap up our last piece for 2023. We wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
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Short New Zealand DollarThe last COT index signal was bearish. The saisonality show a strong bearish trend for the next weeks. Addtionally, the price was rejecte twice in the red resistane box. Next support expected at 0.62.
SL: 0.6601
Target 1: 0.62
Target 2: ~0.58 (suppot by red trendline)
RR (Target 2): 1.7
NEW ZELAND DOLLAR FUTURES (6N1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance :0.61615
Pivot: 0.60565
Support : 0.60050
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below descending trendline and ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 0.60565, where the current price is to the 1st support at 0.60050, where the 78.6% fibonacci projection is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 0.61615, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and previous swing low is.
Fundamentals: the Monetary Base y/y is out today, showing -2.4%, which is lower than forecasted and previous data.
NEW ZELAND DOLLAR FUTURES (6N1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance :0.61615
Pivot: 0.60565
Support : 0.60050
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below descending trendline and ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 0.60565, where the current price is to the 1st support at 0.60050, where the 78.6% fibonacci projection is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 0.61615, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and previous swing low is.
Fundamentals: the Monetary Base y/y is out today, showing -2.4%, which is lower than forecasted and previous data.
NEW ZELAND DOLLAR FUTURES (6N1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance :0.61615
Pivot: 0.60565
Support : 0.60050
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below descending trendline and ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 0.60565, where the current price is to the 1st support at 0.60050, where the 78.6% fibonacci projection is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 0.61615, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and previous swing low is.
Fundamentals: the Monetary Base y/y is out today, showing -2.4%, which is lower than forecasted and previous data.
New Zealand Dollar Futures (6N1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.63840
Pivot: 0.63205
Support : 0.62485
Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving within an ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 0.63205 where the swing high resistance, 127.2% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are. Once there is upside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 0.63840 where the swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci projection , 161.8% fibonacci extension and 127.2% fibonacci extension are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 0.62485 where the overlap support is.
Fundamentals: Due to the lower economic activity, we have a bearish view on New Zealand Dollars. We'll need to exercise caution for this setup because our fundamentals and technicals are not completely aligned.
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR FUTURES (6N1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.63185
Pivot: 0.62470
Support : 0.61850
Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving within an ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 0.62470 where the overlap support is to the 1st resistance at 0.63185 where the swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 127.2% fibonacci extension are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 0.61850 where the overlap support, 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.
Fundamentals: No Major News
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR FUTURES (6N1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.63185
Pivot: 0.62470
Support : 0.61850
Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving within an ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 0.62470 where the overlap support is to the 1st resistance at 0.63185 where the swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 127.2% fibonacci extension are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 0.61850 where the overlap support, 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.
Fundamentals: No Major News