BTC1! trade ideas
LOKING A bitcoins to go down on this 15 minute, im take a shots position to profit a 1 to 2 risk/reward trade
BITCOIN TO $250K – THE INEVITABLE💥 OANDA:BTCUSD is set to explode past $250,000 – here’s why:
1️⃣ Big Players Are In: BlackRock, Fidelity, and global institutions are driving massive adoption.
2️⃣ Supply is Shrinking: With 19M BTC mined and halving ahead, demand is skyrocketing.
3️⃣ Macro Trends Align: Inflation and fiat uncertainty make Bitcoin the ultimate safe haven.
📈 Technicals Are Screaming Bull Run:
FWB:65K ATH? Flipped to support.
$100K? Just a milestone.
$250K? The new frontier.
🔥 This isn’t a rally – it’s a revolution. Don’t miss your chance to make history.
💬 Drop your price targets below. Are you ready for the $250K era?
🔄 Share this post and join the movement.
btcusd to 52k then 300k and beyond.BTCUSD is experiencing resistance at current level. Buyers are about to give into the pressure of sellers. Leading to a deep bearish move to 52/52k ( a retest). It may wick to 70k. Then downwards to 59k. WATCH 65K price region... AS FROM THIS POINT. Bullish to beyond 130k. king's ideas.
Filled GAPThere is a gap between 77,930 and 80,670 on the Bitcoin CME futures chart. In financial markets, a gap occurs when certain price levels are skipped due to a sudden jump, and buying and selling activities resume at subsequent levels.
The reason for gaps in Bitcoin arises from differences between the Binance and American markets over weekends. While the American market halts Bitcoin trading during weekends, Binance continues trading. This discrepancy leads to gaps.
As you know, such gaps often tend to be filled. This particular gap is located approximately 10-20% below and coincides with the block orders we identified in Total Market 1, 2, and 3 levels.
BTC Bearish Head & Shoulders Pattern - Target: $74,675BTC is currently forming a bearish Head & Shoulders pattern, a classic technical setup that often indicates a trend reversal. This pattern points to a downside target of $74,675, calculated based on the distance between the head and neckline.
Key Details:
01) Neckline Support: 90650 - 92000.
02) CME Gap Influence: A significant CME Gap in the $77,000–$80,000 range increases the probability of this bearish scenario playing out, as price movements often tend to fill such gaps.
Breakout Confirmation: Watch for a strong breakdown below the neckline with accompanying volume for confirmation.
Important Note :-
Risk Management: Ensure proper stop-loss placement above the shoulder levels to manage risk effectively.
This setup aligns with the expectation of filling the CME Gap and reinforces the bearish bias. However, as with all trading strategies, remain vigilant for signs of invalidation and adjust your positions accordingly.
Bitcoin CME Futures Analysis: Key Support and Resistance LevelsIn this analysis, I delve into the current price action of Bitcoin CME Futures, highlighting critical resistance and support zones based on the recent market structure. The insights provided aim to assist traders in understanding potential market movements and identifying key areas of interest.
Resistance Zone:
The chart shows a clear rejection from the highlighted resistance zone (purple box) around the $108,000-$112,000 price level. This zone has proven to be a strong ceiling, where sellers have taken control and pushed the price downward. The rejection confirms that this level is significant and should be monitored closely for future price movements.
Support Zone:
On the downside, we observe a critical support level around the $80,655-$77,965 range (yellow box). This zone is derived from a confluence of historical price reactions and psychological round numbers. If the price reaches this level, we might see strong buying interest, which could act as a reversal point.
Market Structure
Currently, the market appears to be in a corrective phase, with lower highs forming after the rejection from the resistance zone. A potential move towards the identified support zone could serve as a critical test for buyers. If the price breaks below this level, it may signal a deeper correction or trend reversal.
I think an 80% drop in Bitcoin is incoming.In this video I give my reason behind why I think bitcoin is about to get rug pulled and also show how I get into weekly swing trades.
CME GAPAre we really gonna ignore the CME gap at the range of 78k to 80k? I really believe we’re to visit these areas before we move up to new highs.
BTC ForecastBTC Is going to Lead into a higher low, wont have the gap fill as of yet. Has a high low on the bottom with a non manipulated price (Wicking out)
- Looking into a 4 Hour Breaker Block
-Then looking at 1 Hour Fair Value Gap
Start small, with a 1-1 RR then larger position leading to a 1-4 RR
This will disappear from the $100,000 range faster than your sock in the dryer.
.. 10 Year leg is getting out of hand upwards of 4.7, if the 5's get hit the banks and fed cant QE and will have to QT
- Powell cant cut rates as if he does inflation will go out worse and effect the yields
-If trump wants a BTC Reserve why on earth would you not plummet the market and buy on discount? What happened to oil during the start of covid?
- Now banks are going to start leveraging further and created more BullSh*t CLO's leveraging the new asset class of BTC this will be a flash crash ( Yen Carry Trade) in late August.
Load the dip buy the dip
#BTC update#BTC has a price gap which should be filled i think this gap can make the whole market bearish to be filled in other hand there is a bearish pattern in NASDAQ chart so we have to wait and see what will happen
Clear mind to manage the risk aheadWe are reaching critical areas for the price of CRYPTOCAP:BTC , the ideal is to stay out of the market in these cases, both in BTC and in the rest of the cryptocurrencies.
And you wonder why? The dominance of BTC in the face of strong falls causes the rest of the tokens to collapse abruptly, which is why it is always better when liquidations are approaching to stay out of the market, since there are no Orders and SLs to hold.
Once the market is going to sweep away all the leveraged and SL that is when we come in, although we have a support zone at 87,000 - 86,000, I do not think it will hold and in my opinion, it will go directly to close the gap to 76k
Exactly as predictedPosted on the 30th of December showing this was a clear short trap to lure in short traders.
We are now at a place where two things can happen.
We have a potential harmonic in play from the
ATH that will take us up to 106k, or we are in an ABC Elliot wave corrective.
Unfortunately Trading View took down my first post about this.
But here we are live today, with not a single thing changed on the chart.
Exactly as predictedPosted on the 30th of December showing this was a clear short trap to lure in short traders.
We are now at a place where two things can happen.
We have a potential harmonic in play from the ATH that will take us up to 106k, or we are in an ABC Elliot wave corrective.
Unfortunately TradingView took down my first post about this.
But here we are live today, with not a single thing changed on the chart.
Will BTC close the CME Futures GAP?Comment below wether you think BTC price action will bring the CME Futures GAP to a close
Bitcoin to Soar as Trump’s Pro-Crypto Policy Hopes RiseBitcoin prices are on fire. It has surged 129% YoY with anticipation surrounding re-election of Donald Trump as the POTUS for the 2nd time. Trump is regarded as the “most pro crypto” President. Trump is poised to usher in a crypto friendly policy framework aimed at accelerating institutional adoption and positioning Bitcoin (“BTC”) as a cornerstone of the American financial bedrock.
Rising regulatory clarity and favourable policies on the horizon, the bullish sentiment is palpable. Rollercoaster rides are mild relative to BTC returns. BTC volatility is sharp. There are multiple ways of generating returns in BTC. This paper looks at combining Spot BTC ETFs and CME Micro Bitcoin Futures to harvest futures premium baked into the term structure.
A long position in the underlying asset combined with a short position in the futures is also known as cash-and-carry trades. More on that later.
Starting first with price drivers pushing BTC into record territory.
Crypto Renaissance following President Trump’s Re-election
Trump wasted no time outlining his ambitions to position the US as a global leader in digital asset adoption. Among his key initiatives is the creation of a National Bitcoin Reserve which aims to integrate BTC alongside gold as a strategic asset. This is a bold move making BTC bullish.
Further, Trump’s nominations for key regulatory roles signal a transformative shift. Paul Atkins, co-chair of the crypto lobbying group Token Alliance, is set to lead the SEC. Fintech venture capitalist David Sacks has been tapped as the White House’s AI & Crypto Czar. Together, these two are expected to establish regulatory clarity while reducing policy uncertainty for investors.
Speculation runs rife about tax incentives aimed at encouraging blockchain innovation, driving significant capital inflows into the sector.
At the Nashville Bitcoin Conference in July 2024, Trump unveiled plans for a Bitcoin Advisory Council, which would draft transparent regulations within his first 100 days in office.
The US government already holds 120,000 BTCs seized from illicit operations. Under Trump, the US Government is expected to consider converting excess reserves at the Federal Reserve into BTC over the next five years. Trump has argued that BTC is unlike fiat currencies which are designed to lose value (2% p.a.) through inflation, while the former offers long-term growth potential.
Adding to his pro-BTC stance, Trump reaffirmed his commitment to safeguarding financial sovereignty by defending the right to self-custody. He also doubled down on his opposition to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), emphasizing his belief in decentralization and financial privacy.
This narrative has resonated strongly with institutional investors where it reinforces BTC’s appeal as a hedge against inflation; and the crypto community, where the intrinsic quality of BTC being independent could still be retained.
BTC's Rally and Institutional Momentum
BTC reached an all-time high of USD 108,364 on 17th December 2024 but has since softened a little and now trades at USD 96,941 as of close of markets on 7th January 2025 (10.5% below its peak).
Despite the pullback, BTC remains a cornerstone of institutional interest. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ( NASDAQ:IBIT ), launched in January 2024, has cemented itself as the fastest-growing exchange-traded fund (ETF) in history. Amassing more than USD 50 billion in assets within 11 months. NASDAQ:IBIT holds half of crypto ETF market share. Strong market demand and introduction of options trading in November has fuelled massive rally in BTC prices.
However, the ETF has also seen hiccups lately. On 3rd January 2025, NASDAQ:IBIT recorded its largest single-day outflow of USD 333 million, also marking its third consecutive day of outflows. These withdrawals align with BTC’s recent pullback. The meteoric rise of ETF underscores a growing appetite for institutional-grade exposure to the token.
HC Wainwright has raised its BTC price target for 2025, boosting projections from USD 140,000 to USD 225,000, citing growing institutional adoption and a favourable regulatory outlook. Meanwhile, Bernstein has similarly forecasted a price of USD 200,000 by the end of 2025, dubbing this period the “Infinity Age” of mainstream financial integration. Also, Geoff Kendrick, Head of Research, Standard Chartered Bank, echoed this optimism, projecting BTC to hit USD 200,000 by year end.
Hypothetical Trade Set Up
Bullish drivers supporting BTC prices are many. The tailwinds are strong. But many of these are hinged on the new administration keeping up to its election rally promises. The token is priced to perfection and has risen so sharply that even a little disappointment in policy expectations can result in sharp price pullback.
In times of such elevated expectations for such assets, the term structure of futures tends to price in steep contango in line with soaring hopes. As of close of markets on 7th January 2025, CME Bitcoin Futures signals a decent steep contango term structure that enables astute investors to lock in market neutral cash and carry yield.
The table below translates the term structure into annualised futures premium for the first six months of the year.
Executing a BTC cash-and-carry trade requires buying into spot BTC while selling a futures contract to neutralise price and market risk. This paper proposes a hypothetical trade using the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (“IBIT”) and CME Micro Bitcoin Futures Contract (“MBT”).
The NASDAQ:IBIT and the MBT products move in tandem with a correlation co-efficient of 1.
The above table points to the highest futures premium while selling the February 2025 MBT contract.
Matching one BTC requires 1,769 units of $IBIT. Each MBT represents 0.1 BTC. A portfolio comprising of a long position in 177 units of NASDAQ:IBIT and a short position in MBT expiring on 28th February 2025 results in a market neutral cash and carry trade to harness the futures premium.
A cash-and-carry trade enables portfolio managers and traders to lock in the futures carry. As the futures contract reaches expiry, the spot and futures prices converge resulting in realisation of the futures premiums.
In the meantime, the P&L of this spread remains intact so long as the steepness in the term structure is constant regardless of BTC price moves. The P&L of this spread trade rises if the term structure flattens. Conversely, if the term structure steepens, it will result in a loss until price convergence occurs at expiry.
The spread trade P&L is summarized below. As explained above, when the spot to futures price differential remains constant in USD terms, the spread P&L remains unchanged at USD 144.67 per lot.
When futures contango flattens, the P&L will rise but eventually converge at expiry. Should that occur, traders can close out the spread trade with a larger P&L without having to hold the position until expiry.
However, if the term structure steepens, then the spread trade will incur losses, and those losses will turn into cash & carry profit of USD 144.67 per lot as prices converge at futures expiry.
Please note that the above calculations do not account for direct costs (trading & clearing fees) and indirect costs (cost of funds required for holding long IBIT position and short MBT futures).
BTC is going to 74K !#BTC here we have a big GAP in CME chart as it happened in past this gap should be filled so BTC can make a rise after touching the demand zone under this gap
BTCUSD Sell updateOn BTCUSD we were bearish on our previous analysis and we were waiting for price to push till our areas of interest, where we took sell positions. Currently as we can see price is pushing lower as we anticipated. Follow for more updates.
BTC is going down to 40kIt's probably going to 60k, maybe 40.
Fisher divergence and the daily and weekly.
BTC CME Short Model and Long ModelNow Bitcoin is in the Premium zone, where it is better to consider short positions for a short-term movement to the Discount zone. If the Market Maker goes for equal lows, which is a good exit point, or if the Market Maker goes long, then the exact entry will be better in the Discount zone, return to where the accumulation was, and see what candles will be formed at this level.
If we look at TOTAL 1 2 3, we will see that these assets are also in the Premium zone, which can also be good support for short positions.
