BTC Long, bottom or another bear trap?28.5k is the invalidation line for continued bull momo. Close below it on the dailv and I think BTC either sees another bear trap/ deviation to 26k followed by a bull reversal to 37k. If the bear trap is set it is extremely risky to play. If it fails, BTC could hit at least 23k for AUG and 20k to 18.8k for SEP because both are statistically red months during the recovery phase of previous bull runs.
However, there is a minor bull case for the bulls considering we are at the bottom end of a linear regression trend from the bottom at 16k to the current price.
Nonetheless, I do expect volatility soon.
Trades:
Trade 1
Long 28650, sl 28000, tp 30500, 32000, 36500, 40000
Conviction moderate. High chance of getting stopped out if 28.5k keeps getting tested and removing liquidity from that region.
Trade 2
Long 26300, sl 24000, tp 30500, 32000, 36500, 40000
Conviction high. Lowered chance of getting stopped out and if a bear trap were to occur, this is the ideal entry.
Trade 3
Short 30500, sl 32000, tp 28500, 26500 (close here if there's bull volume), 24500, 21000, 19500
Conviction moderate. Might get front runned ~29.5k. but use this trade as a hedge against another false rally that leads into a bear trap ~26k, or even worse at 20k if theres no bullish volume for the expected trap.
