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BTC1! trade ideas

BTC Futures Rising Wedge Forming, confluence with newsI frequently chart the BTC CME Futures chart alongside a normal BTC Exchange chart. The difference between them is that CME is closed for the weekend and operated by a regulated group. This means the CME chart can frequently show different trends/patterns as it removed a lot of the noise, unnecessary wicks, etc that can come from exchanges trading over the weekend. I'm watching the early stages of this rising wedge forming. It's a bit early to call it a confirmed pattern still but worth putting on the radar. I often like to find confluence in charts aligning with news; I don't trade news but news is often a perfect catalyst for patterns to breakout. So what I have shown in the chart is a pattern that comes to an apex in about a week's time. And we have February right around the corner with a lot of news coming out, specifically the FOMC meeting minutes releasing on February 1st. This would be the perfect catalyst to create some volatility, quickly eliminate overleveraged longs and shorts, and then push for a pattern break of the rising wedge. Marking this idea as short as I am bearish overall and ready for a market reset, but note that this chart displays an idea where BTC gets one more push higher at the beginning of this week. Happy to answer any questions people have on this idea!
CME:BTC1!Short
by Obscure_Trading
Bitcoin CME Report for Tuesday 17 Jan 2023 to Tuesday 24 Jan 202CME Overview: Bitcoin and crypto, in general, have had a major run starting most significantly since the start of the new year. BTC1! Is the Bitcoin Chicago Mercantile Exchange Futures trading and comprises significant institutional trading of Bitcoin. The most significant data we use in this report are from the Dealer and Intermediaries which are the Exchanges and Brokerages as well as the Asset Managers the latter of which has been longing the 2021 all-time high and subsequent bear market to their peril. The report that comes out on Fridays shows the actions that occurred by position from the previous Tuesday to the Tuesday before that. This current report shows a week-long snapshot of CME positions on Bitcoin from Tuesday the 17th of January to Tuesday the 24th of January. New reports are released on the following Friday after the market closes. Bitcoin CME Report for Tuesday 17 Jan 2023 to Tuesday 24 Jan 2023 From the 17th to the 20th of January price increased from $21.2k to $22.4k before a 2-day break for the weekend. Most notably from Monday the 23rd and Tuesday the 24th the CME gapped up, meaning that the close price from Friday (CME closes for weekend trading) the price of Bitcoin increased from $22.4k and opened on Monday at $22.6k. This creates a “Gap”, and by rule, gaps do not have to be filled however probability says they have a higher fill rate than not. That weekend gap has now been taken out completely however a gap from the 14th and 15th of January largely still exists between $19.9k and $20.4k with a massive and older gap from the 12th and 13th of June 2022 above us at $27.4k and $29.1k. Dealers and Intermediaries are Extremely Short Short Positions: In the current reporting period, we see that Dealers and Intermediaries (The Exchanges / Brokerages) increased their longs by 101 positions bringing their total long positions to 304 while still adding 726 short positions bringing their total short positions to 4,346. This is very different from what usually occurs in relation to lower timeframe price action as we see Dealers and Intermediaries usually adjusting their positions more regularly to catch the Major Moves. As the price has increased in this period this is the most significant adding of short positions by the Dealers and Intermediaries that we have seen since the end of March 2022 when Dealers and Intermediaries massively shorted to force a Q2 open underneath the Q1 open and thereby wrecking quarterly options. Dealers and Intermediaries are now 93.4% short. Asset Managers are still largely out of Position and Entirely Long Long Positions: The other interesting figure from a more accurate perspective is how out of position the Asset Managers have been in the last year plus as they began heavily building longs at the highs in the fall of 2021 and now they have begun to heavily increase their positions in this weeklong period by a further 644 positions to a total of 7,671 long positions and closed 243 short positions leaving only 63 short positions total for asset managers. This means that compared to short positions Asset Managers and Institutions are 99.2% Long with relatively zero shorts. Summary This most recent COT report is interesting as it shows Asset Managers and Institutionals are only long at the same time as we have had good market movement to the upside with each level creating support. The Asset Managers and Institutionals are entirely in Long positions as they added massive longs that are/were out of position going back to November of 2021 and throughout the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin is still holding key levels however, the extreme bearish sentiment is starting to dissipate as Bears are being and have been punished in every range and consolidation period. Every continuous move-up was met by heavy shorting from retail thus providing more liquidity to move price upwards. This is now starting to change as Retail is beginning to add longs in this previous weekly range while shorts were squeezed out of position on Wednesday. The gap down at $19.9k to $20.4k is still in place and breaking any significant structure above still allows the market to capitalize on taking out later longs that got into position over $20k which have yet to be punished. The upside move is still in play until support is broken, a new gap that could be formed come the Monday open on Jan 30th would potentially provide an incentive for market movement as we open the week. Late Longs have not been significantly punished as heavier liquidity is building below us. That being said the weekend trading can decide quite a bit if we start closing 4hr or daily levels below the Weekly Open at $22.6k. The confirmed loss of this level will potentially allow us to short higher up and at the failure of the structure. Shorts have also already been punished and Longs have been by all accounts allowed to keep positions as heavy support still exists. All eyes are on the FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday the 1st of February, with the forecast being an increase of .25% from 4.5% to 4.75% which should be a catalyst to move the market should the forecast not meet the decision. Retail is starting to flip their bias long just as the Asset Managers have both of whom have been largely on the wrong side of the market for well over a year. Conversely, the Dealers and Intermediaries have been largely correct in their positions and their massive adding of shorts in this area which should not be taken lightly as they have been right throughout the bear market. Our thoughts about the Dealers and Intermediaries are simple, don’t bet against them, they have all the data and see all the positions.
CME:BTC1!
by TrendmasterOfficial
Making best case for $BTC bottomApologize but can only for 1 chart here We used a ton of charts for this PLEASE see our profile for more data 1/ Small🧵 Making case 4 $BTC bottom NOT SAYING #Bitcoin bottomed BUT it's good case A UNTIL change, use #BTC Futures data All using spot @ huge disadvantage, to each their own B So far BULL flag playing out, perfectly C Inverse Head & Shoulder forming D RSI stays overbought - 2/ E #BTC downtrend BROKEN Volume not great but buys are in See pinned for $BTC bottom process F HUGE volume November, largest EVER for #Bitcoin To untrained👀weekly looks like all sells BUT, let's dissect G1 Experience knows better, thank GOD Green arrows show intraday BUYING - G2 Yellow & orange arrows = LONG WICKS Yellow volume is OUTRIGHT GREEN! Orange trickier, wick shows BOUNCE back = BUYS H #Bitcoin buys came in around low 17 to low 16k I Spot $BTC, 4th chart shows almost NO buying until 3 DAYS later! J Could this have been capitulation??? - K IMO 24k #bitcoin TOUGH area Gap 12/20 = 24K L Will take time to break, puts into perspective $BTC bottoming process Longer #BTC takes to bottom = BETTER M Look @ A + B, traded above BOTH moving avgs b4 a crossover N Both times heavy vol came LATER O Weekly RSI ok - Truly believe few out there put data like this and have the accuracy. If we get enough we are contemplating videos. We don't need to post and show all of this as we can keep it to ourselves. We aren't really looking to monetize. Our intent is to HELP masses. PLEASE SUB & follow.
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Bitcoin & The Elliott Wave Guideline of Alternation In EffectThe Elliott Wave Guidelines of Alternation appears to be in full effect in BTCUSD - that is if the bottom of what appears to be a wave 4 is in. Wave 1 After the end of the bear market, we got what looks like a wave 1 impulse. Wave 2 is the first major corrective phase, which is where our story of alternation begins. Wave 2 In Elliott Wave Theory, wave 2 retraces most of wave 1. Wave 1 began at $3K and wave 2 ended at $4K - I'd say that fits the bill pretty well. Black Thursday also stopped somewhere around the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. In regards to alternation: Wave 2 I believe was COMPLEX as a double zig-zag labeled as WXY. Wave 2 was SHARP due to how much it retraced and how deep it went. Wave 2 was much shorter at 250 days - this was a correction via PRICE Wave 2's first sub-waves was longer, and the second set of sub-waves were very short Note: In wave 4, almost all of these are flipped Wave 3 Wave 3 was extended, which in itself is alternation with wave 1 in effect. Wave 4 In Elliott Wave Theory, wave 4 retraces much of wave 3, but shouldn't overlap with wave 1. Meaning those waiting for $13,800 or lower Bitcoin were always going to be left waiting. I realize that the correction did not "feel" flat or "sideways" but compared to how much wave 2 wiped out wave 1, wave 4 didn't do anywhere near the damage to wave 3 by comparison. Wave 4 I believe was SIMPLE as an expanded flat labeled as ABC. Wave 4 was FLAT due to how much it retraced and how deep it went. Wave 4 was much longer at 575 days - this was a correction via TIME (which is actually more painful) Wave 4 first sub-waves was short, and the second set of sub-waves (five-wave impulse down) were very very very long. Note: These notes are complete opposite of the notes of wave 2. Wave 5 We'll soon find out if the above is enough to provide us with a roadmap of if a wave 5 is coming. If Bitcoin finds itself below $13,800 on a closing basis, throw this idea away - it would be invalidated. If not, the move will take the market by surprise who are expecting some long, drawn out accumulation phase, because that's what's been happening since 2018. This would be the grande finale in BTC for a while and a vicious bear market should follow unlike what this market has seen before in terms of degree.
CME:BTC1!Long
by CoinChartist
BTC CME Weekly Breaks 200 EMABTC IS way overbought on the daily time-frame, but on CME Weekly Chart Overbought is not hit till $29955 and trading above the top side Bollinger Band on the Weekly which still shows strength. Just Crossed the Weekly 200 EMA today on CME. but... BTC Daily did kiss the 200 Simple today, so... pull-back to the 23.6 or 38.2 could be expected, below 38.2 watch for point of control at $19150 approx... on TradingView.. Chefrusty will publish my convoluted chart
CME:BTC1!Long
by Chefrusty
Perfect $BTC bottom goes like thisPls see profile for more info & up to date 1/2 Look @ big daddy for #crypto guidance $BTC potential BULL FLAG after BREAKAWAY GAP Tried on 1/12 but gapped up 2 days later, better IMO Flags are CONTINUATION patterns Would like 2c #BTC lil higher today + more volume Then Small down trend + volume dies Then #Bitcoin🧨 - 2/2 Perfect #crypto setup Perfect = $BTC forms flag, pops to 24kish NECKLING = RESISTANCE THEN #BTC sells off, forms base Higher base = BETTER No lower than gap fill = IDEAL #Bitcoin can take couple months to do this Watch the 2md leg for VOLUME NOW it MUST be heavy
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
2
Bitcoin CME Report for 10 Jan to 17 Jan and AnalysisCME Overview: Bitcoin and crypto, in general, have had a major run starting most significantly since the start of the new year. BTC1! Is the Bitcoin Chicago Merchantile Exchange Futures trading and comprises institutional trading of Bitcoin. The report that comes out on Fridays shows the actions that occurred by position from the previous Tuesday to the Tuesday before that. Basically, showing a week-long snapshot of institutional positions on Bitcoin and in this idea post from Tuesday 10 Jan to Tuesday 17 Jan which is back-dated by 3 days. Bitcoin CME Report for Tuesday 10 Jan 2023 to Tuesday 17 Jan 2023: From the 10th to the 13th of January price increased from $17.1k to $19.9k before a 2-day break for the weekend. Most notably from Monday the 16th and Tuesday the 17th the CME gapped up, meaning that the close price from Friday (CME closes for weekend trading) the price of Bitcoin increased from $19.9k and opened on Monday at $20.9k. This creates a “Gap”, and by rule, gaps do not have to be filled how ever probability says they have a higher fill rate than not fill rate. That gap has now been reduced from $20.4k to $19.9k but largely still exists. In this period we see that Dealers and Intermediaries (The Exchanges / Brokerages) reduced their longs by 100 positions while still maintaining 3600 short positions. This is very different from what usually occurs in relation to lower timeframe price action as we see Dealers and Intermediaries usually adjusting their positions more regularly to catch the Major Moves Asset Managers still largely out of Position: The other interesting figure from a more accurate perspective is how out of position the Asset Managers have been in the last year plus as they began heavily building longs at the highs in the fall of 2021 and now they have begun to heavily increase their positions in this weeklong period by a further 800 positions. This means that compared to short positions Asset Managers and Institutions are 95.8% Long. Dealers and Intermediaries are still Short: To bring this into perspective Dealers and Intermediaries are still 94.69% Short having heavily shorted in the fall of 2021 and then built and continuously added major shorts from April and from the Summer of 2022, continuously increasing their positions until now. Summary: This most recent COT report is interesting as it shows Asset Managers and Institutionals building longs at the same time as we have good market movement to the upside. This means that we are potentially seeing Asset Managers and Institutionals breaking their losing streak of being out of position consistently in the past 18 months or so. The major move-up in Crypto has been driven by extreme bearish sentiment and heavy shorting in the market as every continuous move-up is met by heavy shorting from retail actors thus providing more liquidity to move price upwards. The gap is down at $19.9k and is still in place and breaking any significant structure above still gives the opportunity for the market to capitalize on taking out later longs that got into position over $20k. The upside move is still in play until support is broken, a new gap that could be formed come the Monday open on Jan 23rd would potentially provide an incentive for market movement as we open the week. Our recommendation is simple, the upside should continue until we have a significant break of structure. Late Longs have not been significantly punished as heavier liquidity is building below us.
CME:BTC1!
by TrendmasterOfficial
2
BITCOIN Build Up for Long!CME:BTC1! Bitcoin is sitting in a cup with a buildup at resistance. On breakout, can Long with possible target to ~23k and ~25k. On breakdown, Short to possible pull back. Altcoins will follow BTC so have your plan ready to execute. I gave AAVEUSDT yesterday and it's a good one to gain % faster. Lets get it! If you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
CME:BTC1!Long
by imr4nkh8n
1
BTC In A Corrective Pullback: Intraday Elliott Wave AnalysisBitcoin made sharp reversal and strong recovery last week, which we see it as a five-wave bullish impulse from Elliott wave perspective. With recent sharp decline into wave (a), followed by current recovery in wave (b), there's a chance for another wave (c) drop to complete a higher degree wave "iv" correction. Ideal support comes around 20.000 level that can also fill the BTC CME Futures Monday's GAP before the uptrend for wave "v" resumes ahead of the weekend. Happy trading!
CME:BTC1!
by ew-forecast
7