BTC1! trade ideas
Will Bitcoin Climb or Collapse as Bank Chaos Subsides?Which way will Bitcoin break out of last week’s range? On screen I have highlighted the price range between $29,000 and $26,700, representing the high and low of the week-long ranging period. The price has flirted with a break to the downside, touching as low as $26,500, but a confident close below $27,000 is still to occur.
Bitcoin surged in March as confidence in the global banking system was shaken with the fall of a few US regional banks and the Swiss giant Credit Suisse. As it stands, it appears that the risk of other banks going under is subsiding, which may also stifle the upside potential of bitcoin moving forward. The phycological level of $30,000 might be too lofty a goal for bulls now if a break to the upside does occur. Gold hitting $2,000 might be more likely at this point.
Elsewhere in the crypto sphere, and perhaps applying some more pressure on the price of Bitcoin, The Commodity Futures and Trading Commission has filed a complaint against Binance and its Founder Changpeng Zhao, for allegedly violating US trading and derivatives laws. Binance and Zhao are being accused by the CTFC of operating an "inefficient compliance program" and deliberately violating the law. Zhao has tweeted that the CTFC’s allegations are "fake news”.
Gap Fills on BTCSo just something I was looking at and wondering why I haven’t really heard anyone else talking about lately. As you see price came back and perfectly filled the CME gap at 19k then took off bouncing from the 200 ma up to where we are currently stalled which happens to be another CME gap fill!! So my question is are we going to continue up and fill the final gap at the 35k range or come back down and retest our base and possibly form a good foundation for a bottom before we take of closer to the end of the year? Let me know what you all think
Winning Strategy for Smart Trading SMC theory
SMC is not just a Forex trading strategy, but an entire philosophy about how the markets work.
Basically, SMC states that market makers (i.e., banks, hedge funds, etc.) are manipulative entities, and that moreover, they are actively making life difficult for retail traders.
According to SMC, as a retail trader, you should base your strategy on what is happening with the "smart money" (i.e., the money belonging to market makers).
Indeed, you should try and pattern your trading off of how these market makers are trading. They are concerned with supply, demand, and market structure. So, as an SMC trader, that is also what you are looking at when making your own trade decisions.
Where did SMC Forex trading come from?
Smart Money Concepts originated with The Inner Circle Trader (ICT), which is a program offered by a trader named Michael J. Huddleston. ICT offers some free resources as well as paid Forex mentorship.
SMC core concepts and terminology
SMC sounds highly technical when you first start reading about it. You may find yourself scratching your head at the basic vocabulary. To help you out, here are explanations of some common terms used by SMC traders:
Order blocks: This terminology is used to discuss supply and demand. Some SMC traders say that order blocks are a more "refined' concept than regular supply and demand, but others contest this claim.
Breaker blocks and mitigation blocks: These terms refer to support and resistance.
Fair value gaps: This term refers to an imbalance. There are a variety of different types of gaps, and they were all identified years ago. Some examples are common gaps, exhaustion gaps, breakaway gaps, and runaway gaps.
You will discover that other SMC concepts also are familiar to you once you figure out what the fancy terminology is referencing.
When analyzing the markets, SMC focuses a lot on "break of structure" in the market, or "BOS."
Here is a chart illustrating breaks of structure. Every time price surpasses the previous high, there is break of structure. We then see a change of character (ChoCH) as price drops down past previously established lows.
Controversies about Smart Money Concepts in Forex trading
SMC is controversial for a few key reasons:
The theory behind it is incorrect.
SMC is not "trading like the banks."
Even though it can work, it is not new.
The flaws in the theory
What is the flaw in the theory behind SMC? It comes back to what we mentioned earlier about market makers.
SMC traders say that manipulations by "smart money" actors are why certain SMC patterns are forming. But SMC does not provide any evidence that these manipulations are occurring or are responsible for the patterns.
There is little logic in declaring that smart money manipulations are creating the patterns. It is true that banks and other large players are what move the markets. But it is not true to say that these market makers are out to get retail traders and are actively conspiring to manipulate the markets. Instead, their role in the markets is to create liquidity.
Simply put, market makers do not care about your existence. Retail traders are just not that significant in the grand scheme of things, even when you add them all together.
Does this mean market manipulation is entirely a myth? No. It does happen, but not in the way that SMC describes.
No different from regular retail trading
SMC traders believe that they are trading like the market makers rather than trading like other retail traders, and that this gives them an edge that their fellow retail traders lack.
In truth, SMC traders are trading exactly like their fellow retail traders. They are not trading "like the banks."
New terms, old concepts
Finally, all of the repackaging and fancy terminology is a source of irritation for a lot of traders.
ICT has made a lot of money off of teaching traders SMC. There is nothing wrong with that per se, since they are teaching methods that can be useful. But some traders feel that presenting these old concepts as if they are brand new is disingenuous in some way.
To add to that, having to learn all of those new terms adds a level of unnecessary complication to the entire thing.
SMC does not so much reinvent the wheel as it simply rebrands the wheel, putting it in a fresh new package. It is still a wheel. It turns in the exact same way and can get you to the exact same destination.
Why go to the trouble to learn a new language to discuss something with which you already are probably familiar?
For most (though not all) traders, it is simply going to be easier to talk about support and resistance.
Pros and cons of SMC
Pros of SMC:
Smart money concepts trading does seem to work for some traders. If it works for you, there is no reason not to use it. Being able to consistently grasp what price is doing and profit from its behavior is more important than knowing why price is moving the way it is.
Price action has a decades-long history of producing results for many people across not just currencies, but other assets as well. Since SMC is repackaged price action, it does have a solid core.
Some people find price action easier to understand when it is presented as SMC.
While the theory that large institutions are targeting retail traders is dubious, it does seem plausible to suggest that larger institutions may sometimes go after smaller ones, generating some of what we are seeing. Liquidity grabs do exist, even if SMC is presenting them in a questionable framework. So, some of the theory elements of SMC may be viable, just not as SMC describes them.
Cons of SMC:
Some of the theory elements of SMC do not appear to make a lot of sense when you think logically about how irrelevant retail traders are to the big players. Believing wholeheartedly in everything SMC presents could result in misunderstanding market fundamentals.
One can neither prove nor disprove the theories behind SMC. They are purely speculative, and only an insider would be able to produce concrete evidence in either direction. That means that no one can verify that SMC's model of reality is correct, but no one can 100% refute it either. All anyone can do is argue based on what they believe about what institutions do.
Switching up all the terminology the way SMC does can make for an unnecessarily convoluted learning process for price action, especially if you already are familiar with the standard language of price action. It may also make it harder for you to share what you learn with others who speak the regular price action language.
A lot of people are turned off by the elitist mystique surrounding SMC, and feel it is deceptive to sell old concepts as if they are new. Also, we are using the word "sell" here very literally. While there are a lot of free SMC resources, you will run into plenty of pay gates while trying to learn SMC.
Should you trade using SMC?
Smart Money Concepts trading would probably not be as popular as it is right now if some traders did not find it intuitive.
If you do like how SMC expresses its terminology and techniques, then by all means, go ahead and give it a try.
Just be aware that the strategy is a repackaged form of good old-fashioned price action trading, and that you are doing the same thing as many other retail traders.
But there is nothing wrong with that, because good old-fashioned price action trading is a tried and true method that has been profitable for many traders for decades.
If the strange terminology of SMC confuses you or you are looking for more free resources (there are paywalls for many SMC programs), just study price action. You will be learning the same thing anyway.
BTC - CME ChartCME Gap: These are price windows which are created due to price fluctuations on weekends where CME is closed but Bitcoin is still active.
We had 2 major unfilled gaps from the 2022 down trend. This week one of those gaps from 2022 June is now filled while the gap from May is still pending.
Also there was a minor gap created in December which was cleared this month. Sametime a new gap is created in February within price ranges of 20300 to 21200.
So currently we have a bullish gap and a bearish gap. Based on the current state I have more weightage on the bearish gap to be filled first.
As we reach the month end where CME expiry will occur this month for both monthly and quarterly futures and options.
I'm more in to bearish sentiment at this moment.
$BTC struggling to break 28kish, expected What about altcoins?#Bitcoin struggling in this area.
$BTC can still hang around here for a bit but we believe it will break through some time this year. Likely sooner rather than later.
There's not much to say here on #BTC.
Would keep a close eye on volume as that will, as usual, dictate what direction we'll see in the short term.
We close this month around here, even lil lower, the RSI for the month shows more indication of more upside coming.
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#Altcoins have been kind of dead recently. TOTAL 3 is struggling here because you have a ton of resistance on daily downtrend (being broken atm), Major Resistance around 400B, and the 10 EMA monthly moving avg is right above. When/If this breaks it should be party time. Till then Big Daddy, Bitcoin is leading.
Bitcoin, chart update.BTCUSD
Hello traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
I shared my personal views on Bitcoin and where the price might be heading from here.
If you have any questions, leave them bellow.
Trade safely,
Trader Leo.
first CME region has been filled.There could be drop later or soon .. to fill next CME which i already shared. f you want to make profits just click on the links below and you will understand how we are making profits. although we are doing challange of converting $100 to $1Milllion.
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Bitcoin CME Gap $28740 has been Filled what Now..?#Bitcoin #CME Gap Chart:
Recently, the Bitcoin CME gap at $28,740 was filled within 24 hours after a post about Bitcoin.
However, a new CME gap has opened at $27,155, and it remains to be seen whether it will be filled after the FOMC news.
Currently, there are two more CME gaps that remain unfilled, one at $35,180 and the other at $20,330.
It is difficult to predict which gap will be filled first.
#BTC #BTCUSDT #FOMC #crypto #cryptocurrency #Alts #Altcoins #cryptosignals #Bitcoin2023
CME gap which is work as magnet.if you want to make profits just click on the links below and you will understand how we are making profits. although we are doing challange of converting $100 to $1Milllion.
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$BTC resting before next moveAs we predicted some time ago, $BTC is struggling in this Gap Fill area.
Last 2 days #BTC has formed doji patterns, cross like. This signifies a battle between bulls and bears.
Hard to call the definitive direction atm.
RSI still looks okay. Oversold but in bull markets to he RSI can remain overbought for long periods.
We likely get sideways or some lower price action before chugging higher. But we could also just punch through. Imo #BITCOIN bear is dead.
#altcoins are not reacting very well and that's okay. As long as big daddy leads that's most important atm and for health of #crypto.
We did see $xrp pop because of news. We'll see soon how the #altcoin market will react.
#xrp #cbdc
BTC CME GAPS!!When Bitcoin closed Gap 1 he left behind gap 2 which is still open now!
this Gap at 20K..We can expect Bitcoin will go back to close it but the question when!
Bitcoin CME Gap Chart AnalysisBitcoin CME Gape Chart Analysis:-
Bitcoin CME Gap at $28,740 remains unfilled, leading to speculation about when it will be filled. In addition, there is anticipation for the next CME Gap at $35,180. However, many are wondering about the status of the $20,330 CME Gap.
The $20,330 CME Gap refers to a price discrepancy on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures chart that occurred when the cryptocurrency experienced a significant price drop in March 2020. The price fell from around $9,000 to below $4,000, causing the CME Gap to form.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading above the price range of the $20,330 CME Gap, leading some to believe that it may never be filled. However, it's worth noting that historically, Bitcoin has filled the majority of its CME Gaps, which means there's a chance that this one could be filled as well.
While it's impossible to predict exactly when the $20,330 CME Gap will be filled, market analysts believe that it may happen in the future if Bitcoin experiences a significant drop in price. In any case, traders and investors should keep an eye on this CME Gap and be prepared for potential market movements if and when it is filled.
btc going bearishbtc going bearish and will be selling for long
btc has gotten to its level where retracement comes it as it has gotten to its resistance point..we expert price to drop.
CME Gaps: Don't Ignore Them... How often have you heard this term “CME gap” on Twitter, Reddit and other social media platforms. People usually refer to CME gaps during and after the weekends. “There is a CME gap at $9800”, “Bitcoin is about to make a huge gap on the CME chart”, “gap has been filled” and so on.
What is CME
CME stands for Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It is the world’s largest financial derivatives exchange. This futures platform allows one to trade variety of asset classes like: agricultural products, energy, stock indices, fiat currencies, interest rates, real estates, metals and even they have futures trading options for weather.
What is a GAP
To put it plainly; A gap is simply an area on a chart that has no trades. It is basically an empty space between the close and open price of an asset. You can see the current gap just filled down at 19k-20k last week.
CME Bitcoin futures gap: Bitcoin (BTC) is being traded 24/7 on majority of crypto exchanges, but not on CME. Bitcoin does not trade during weekends on CME and this causes gap on CME chart once the trading resumes on the platform. The CME gap on Bitcoin typically occurs when the price of Bitcoin moves after the CME futures market is closed. Once CME opens; the trade on CME resumes at the same price as other Bitcoin exchanges thus creating a gap on the CME chart.
Why do they fill?
Price gaps getting filled is not just a CME phenomenon and is not just a Bitcoin thing. It’s a common occurrence that can also be seen quite regularly within stock and traditional markets. In most cases the price tend to fill the gaps and due to this many technical analysts consider gaps when doing price analysis. But why do they fill?
In physics there is a famous saying: “Nature abhors a vacuum“. This idiom is used to express the idea that any unfilled, empty spaces are unnatural and goes against the laws of physics and nature. This is based on Aristotle’s observation. Nature contains no vacuums because the denser surrounding material continuum would immediately fill the rarity of an incipient void.
Could this possibly be the reason why the gaps are getting filled?
Well, there are several different theories regarding this but the fact is no one exactly knows why gaps fill.
Trading based on BTC gaps
Although CME accounts for a large portion of BTC traded volume, the price of Bitcoin does not necessarily gravitate towards CME gaps. There are so many other factors such as Volume, momentum, buy / sell pressure, technical structures, support / resistance and many more.Traders consider gaps as an interesting marker on a chart. But they don’t necessarily trade on as they are not always a reliable indicator. They have high hit rate and so using them on your technical analysis will help you position yourself on the right side of the trade. However taking a trade solely based on this one factor is a wrong move. Trading gaps seems like an easy strategy but the risks are high and in most cases you’ll be on the losing side. So do not risk your trade account with just this one strategy. Use proper risk management, set stop losses and be sure to trade safe.
Apart from this there are other types of gaps which traders use in their technical analysis like for example: Liquidity gap, Breakaway, Balanced price range, Fair Value gap and so on...
I have located all the 'Unfilled' CME BTC gaps in the chart...
CME GAPS: An UpdateWell in a short space of time, BTC has arrived at yet another CME GAP. Price is currently hanging around inside of this gap and awaiting its next move.
This update features all GAPS that are currently available and Unfilled... You can notice how price action has almost 'hunted' for these gaps in the past.
Current unfilled gaps:
SUPPLY:
-34455 - 35180 - Clean gap
DEMAND:
-27320 - 27155 - Clean gap
-21110 - 19965 - *Reversal gap
Other possible 'lowball' CME Demand gaps:
-16895 - 16955
-11225 - 11005
-9735 - 9850 - *Partially filled
BTC 4H SELL+46% since 10 mar.23
overbought
The rally was triggered by bank liquidity problems
Sell the news
It can keep going up if they keep failing banks.
For the first time BTC shows to be safe haven.
I expect a general fall in the markets after the FED on Wednesday
A game of Gaps Risk reward We have two gaps too the downside
One too the upside +7k too 35k
downside too 20100 +$7,900
Gap has been filled here at 27k
Finally attacked
Close above 29k
Like, I said in other post
Probably off too the races and attack 35k next
Just updating my CME chart
$BTC pretty much fills gap, what now?Last time we're showing the Inverse Head & Shoulder for $BTC.
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The Neckline shall serve as support from here on in. IMO this has to be the end of the bear. We called it a lil early, mid February, but it looked like it then & it's confirmed now. Weekly chart is amazing.
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Back to daily. #BTC is getting oversold on daily as we close in on the gap fill, top dotted line, 29kish.
This 29k level is going to be TOUGH IMO. Likely some sort of pullback here & may take some time to break through, IMO eventual.
Then we have some resistance at 32kish and then mid 30k's.
How high can we go this year? Who knows. We'll play it by ear.
Dec 2020 to Jun 2022 is the best way to see major & minor resistance levels.
Let's go #Bitcoin!
#cryptotrading #cryptocurrency #crypto
$BTC - Bitcoin - my price expectations. Not by timeThis is what I expect bitcoin to do over the coming 2 years or so. Unfortunately I think this will suck more money into it before it ultimately bottoms below $10K again. First gap above will be filled this week with most likely a pull back to 200 weekly EMA. Then it will gather strength to backfill the last gap above around $35K and then it is lights out for BTC.
BTC - Possibly targeting the CME gapfillsThe CME chart on the right shows the possible BTC targets could be the CME gapfills at 29400 and also 35000
CME GAPsThe chart shows that the gap beginning from $27,455 zone is about to be filled. Technically speaking, consolidation of BTC will commence after the gap has been filled which will lead to filling the GAP at $20,000 zone.
Note that some factors which include macroeconomy factors are bound to invalidate the above analysis.
Ps: THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISE
CME gap BTC 1D#Bitcoin
Swing target reached after less than 4 days.
CME gap at $27k is about to be filled.
Playing against the sentiment made us wealth again.
Next target: $32K
