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BTC1! trade ideas

Market Update: Tariffs, Trade Shifts & Bitcoin's Next MoveCME:BTC1! News and Economic Calendar Update President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, effective Monday, with reciprocal tariffs to follow on Tuesday or Wednesday. As Trump has shared, “if they tax us, we tax them the same amount.” This move is expected to reshape global trade relations, with China reportedly considering probes into U.S. tech firms such as Broadcom (AVGO) and Synopsys (SNPS), according to WSJ. Japan's PM Ishiba remains optimistic about avoiding higher U.S. tariffs, while Australia and India are negotiating exemptions and trade concessions. Meanwhile, the EU has hinted at retaliatory measures should new tariffs be imposed. The U.S. dollar strengthened following Friday’s jobs report and fresh tariff announcements, while the Japanese yen under-performed. The EUR/USD briefly dipped below 1.03 before rebounding, and the British pound remained stable ahead of comments from BoE’s Mann. U.S. Treasury yields were unchanged, while European bunds edged higher amid rising trade concerns. Gold surged to an all-time high above $2,900/oz, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets due to tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, crude oil reached session highs, and European natural gas prices climbed to a two-year peak due to colder temperatures and tight storage. Looking Ahead Key upcoming data releases include Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, U.S. CPI data, Chinese M2 Money Supply, and U.S. retail sales. Additionally, multiple central bank officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week, providing further insights into monetary policy direction. Macro Update: Trade War 2.0 and Tariff Shifts Impact Markets. The latest reciprocal tariff announcements from Trump, in our view, presents a strategic opportunity for the U.S. This approach enables negotiations for lower tariffs on U.S. exports with individual trading partners, fostering a more flexible and targeted trade policy. This shift aligns more with global trade integration and could provide a more balanced framework for U.S. exporters. Gold continues to exhibit renewed strength as a safe-haven asset, marking fresh all-time highs amid market uncertainty. Meanwhile, Bitcoin—often referred to as "digital gold"—has lagged behind, struggling in a climate of risk-off sentiment. However, it remains within its post-election trading range, signaling resilience despite broader market volatility. At the fiscal level, U.S. House Republican leaders are proposing federal spending cuts ranging between $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion, according to Punchbowl sources. These cuts are expected to focus heavily on Medicaid spending. However, the effectiveness of government spending adjustments remains in question—whether such measures will enhance efficiency or simply reduce overall spending is yet to be seen. In addition, extending President Trump’s tax proposals could cut revenue by $5-11T over a decade, potentially pushing U.S. debt to 132-149% of GDP by 2035. Senate Republicans propose $342B in border and defense spending, with offsetting cuts. Meanwhile, Musk’s DOGE Service aims to automate government functions, reduce the federal workforce, and slash spending. Bitcoin Big Picture: Bitcoin has been consolidating after making new all time highs post US elections. Although price action and consolidation points towards further bullishness. We remain cautious and prepared for any of the scenarios that may happen as a result of many different factors influencing risk assets and market sentiment. To better manage your exposure to Bitcoin, consider using CME’s Micro Bitcoin and Bitcoin Friday Futures . Additionally, you can take part in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, allowing you to showcase your Micro Bitcoin trading skills in The Leap —risk-free. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. Yearly Hi: 110,920 mCVAH: 104,400 Dec 2024 mid range: 101,570 Jan 2025 mid range: 100,610 mCVPOC: 98,075 mCVAL: 93,730 Key Bull Support: 92,505 - 90,000 Scenario 1: Further chop and acceptance In this scenario, we may see price action remain range bound. Traders look for clarity on how policy may affect market sentiment before further committing capital. Scenario 2: New ATHs Price attempts to create new ATHs which marks a significant move. Although bitcoin created new all time highs in January 2025, these were rejected and price action pointed towards market top. Scenario 3: Souring market sentiment Scenario 2 and 3 requires remaining alert to all developments as fundamental and macro news is turning ever so significant in driving short-term volatility and price action. Any further hint towards tighter monetary policy and tighter fiscal policy may send BTC prices lower very quickly.
CME:BTC1!
by EdgeClear
Reg Optimism, Implicit Fed Support, & Insti Demand to Boost BTCBitcoin prices surged on President Trump’s inauguration day (Jan 20), reaching an all-time high of USD 109,000. However, since then, prices have stagnated. Recent tariff announcement has driven a sharp selloff. Optimism about a crypto-friendly Trump administration continue to fuel bullish sentiment, but the lack of concrete regulatory guidance has limited near-term momentum. MACRO FACTORS AT PLAY BTC remains below key resistance levels, limiting upward momentum. However, it has outperformed equities in the current macroeconomic environment. While equities faced an AI-driven selloff last week, BTC showed resilience, rebounding quickly from its Jan 24 lows. Additionally, BTC has benefited from market uncertainty, like gold, which is also trading near an all-time high. The recent FOMC meeting initially pressured BTC, as the Fed held rates steady and expressed inflation concerns. However, BTC rebounded 2.4% after Fed Chair Powell clarified that changes in inflation-related language were not intended as a strong signal. Source: CME FedWatch The Federal Reserve’s latest dot plot suggests only two rate cuts in 2025. Market expectations, per the CME FedWatch tool, align with this outlook. While a higher-rate environment limits tailwinds for BTC, bullish sentiment continues, driven by regulatory anticipation and increasing institutional and sovereign adoption. BREAKING DOWN TRUMP’S EXECUTIVE ORDER On Jan 23, President Trump issued an executive order titled "Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology." The order emphasizes fostering digital asset growth while maintaining U.S. financial sovereignty, particularly through USD-backed stablecoins. It also protects citizens’ rights to use blockchain networks without government interference. Key provisions include: 1. Creation of a National Economic Council working group on digital assets, chaired by David Sacks. 2. Review of existing regulations within 30–60 days, followed by a report to the President in 180 days. 3. Consideration of a national digital asset reserve while explicitly prohibiting government action on (Central Bank Digital Currency) CBDCs. U.S. BITCOIN RESERVE: REALITY CHECK While the executive order affirms the administration’s pro-crypto stance, it stops short of immediately establishing a national Bitcoin reserve. If approved, the reserve would take shape in at least six months, delaying any near-term impact. The working group may begin by utilizing seized cryptocurrency rather than purchasing new BTC. The U.S. government currently holds 198,000 BTC (~USD 20B, as of Feb 1) and USD 400M in other crypto assets. For context, U.S. strategic reserves include: (a) Gold: 8,133 tonnes (~USD 737B as of 31/Jan), (b) Crude oil: 395M barrels (~USD 28B, as of 24/Jan), and (c) Foreign currency reserves: ~USD 239B (Q3 2024). The U.S. gold reserve accounts for 3.8% of the total above-ground gold stock, while its Bitcoin holdings currently represent just 1% of the total supply. To match the gold reserve proportion, U.S. Bitcoin holdings would need to increase by 554,000 BTC, valued at approximately USD 55 billion at current prices. Over time, a Bitcoin reserve could realistically expand by USD 50 billion to USD 70 billion. Meanwhile, several U.S. states are advancing their own Bitcoin reserve proposals. 15 states are considering BTC-related fiscal policies, with: • Oklahoma, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania proposing 10% public fund allocations • Texas suggesting a donation/tax model • Arizona and Utah advancing legislation beyond committee stages REGULATORY CERTAINTY FOR BANKS Fed Chair Powell recently confirmed that banks can engage with crypto provided they manage associated risks. While this imposes stricter compliance requirements, it provides much-needed clarity following the post-FTX banking shakeout that shuttered major crypto-focussed banks. Fund Flows: Institutional Demand Remains Strong BTC ETFs saw record one-day inflows of over USD 1B on Trump’s inauguration eve. Since then, daily inflows have averaged USD 257M, with only one outflow day (-USD 457M on Jan 27). Cumulative BTC ETF inflows since Jan 20 now total USD 2.3B, pushing assets under management (AUM) to nearly USD 118B. Source: Arkham Intelligence Notably, ETF investors remain highly profitable at current prices. Arkham Intelligence data shows IBIT ETF holders sitting on a 45% gain, which may limit immediate selling but could lead to some profit-taking. MicroStrategy remains a major BTC buyer. The company recently completed a USD 584M perpetual convertible offering to acquire more BTC, potentially fuelling short-term upside. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & TRADE SETUP BTC’s recent pullbacks have ranged from 10.1% to 23.6% Fibonacci levels, like the 2018 bull cycle according to Glassnode . Source: Glassnode The drawdown since reaching ATH on 20/Jan represents a ~13% move which suggests the drawdown is larger than usual ones during this cycle. Historically, this phase of the bull run experiences FOMO-driven price acceleration, though long-term holders’ profit-taking presents a headwind. BTC fell below the 50-day MA over the weekend, this level has served as support recently. The 92k level is also significant as it has provided support several times during recent retracements. However, in case the selloff deepens, the next significant support may be as far as the 100-day MA at 85k. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP BTC has outperformed equities amid macro uncertainty and is increasingly correlated with gold (30-day correlation: 0.67). Recent tariff announcement in the US has driven a sharp selloff. Despite a less-than-ideal FOMC outcome, BTC retains several bullish drivers, supported by Regulatory optimism following Trump’s executive order, Fed Chair Powell’s statements on crypto banking, and Institutional & sovereign demand. The recent selloff offers a tactical opportunity to build long positions during volatile drawdowns. Investors can opt for the following hypothetical trade setup consisting of long position in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures expiring on 28/Feb (MBTG2025). Each contract of MBT provides exposure to 0.1 BTC and requires margin of USD 2,451 as of 31/Jan. • Entry: 94,000 • Target: 100,585 • Stop Loss: 90,000 • Profit at Target: USD 659 ((100,585-94,000) x 0.1 BTC per contract) • Loss at Stop: USD 400 ((90,000-94,000) x 0.1 BTC per contract) • Reward-to-risk Ratio: 1.65x CME Group lists a raft of products covering a range of asset classes more accessible while also enabling granular hedging for portfolio managers. Portfolio managers can learn more on how to access these micro products by visiting CME Micro Products page on CME portal to discover micro-sized contracts to gain macro exposures. TradingView has launched The Leap trading competition starting today. New and upcoming traders can hone and refine their trading skills, test their trading strategies, and feel the thrill of futures trading with a vibrant global community through this paper trading competition sponsored by CME Group using virtual money and real time prices. Click here to learn more. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:MBT1!Long
by mintdotfinance
4
Bitcoin Resistance Reckoning: Short play### **📊 Technical Analysis – Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT1!) – 1H Chart** 🚀 **Current Price:** **$106,145** 📉 **Short Setup Active:** **Sell Limit at $107,500** --- ### **🔍 Key Observations & Market Structure** 1️⃣ **Resistance Cluster at $107,500 - $108,500** - **Multiple previous rejections** from this zone suggest heavy sell-side pressure. - **Liquidity sweep potential**: A brief spike above before a reversal is possible. - **Volume Profile shows high supply here**, aligning with our short setup. 2️⃣ **Support Zones to Watch** - **$106,000:** Psychological level, minor liquidity but vulnerable. - **$104,000:** Stronger demand zone; volume profile suggests buyers here. - **$102,500:** Key **high-volume node**, deeper support & likely take-profit zone. 3️⃣ **Momentum & Indicators** - **RSI Bearish Divergence** → Momentum is weakening at resistance. - **Bollinger Bands Overextended** → Upper band rejection confirms exhaustion. - **Delta Volume** suggests sellers are stepping in **aggressively near $107K**. 4️⃣ **Breakdown Confirmation Level** - **If $106,000 fails, we could see a quick flush to $104,000.** - **Break below $104,000 = likely continuation to $102,500.** --- ### **📈 Trade Plan Update & Risk/Reward** **🔻 SHORT TRADE PLAN:** - **Entry:** $107,500 (Active Sell Limit) - **Stop Loss:** **$108,500** (Above liquidity sweep) - **Take Profit 1:** **$104,000** (Support test) - **Take Profit 2:** **$102,500** (Major support, max reward) - **Risk-to-Reward:** **3.3:1** ✅ **Best Play:** Hold short entries, let price confirm a move below $106,000 for continuation. --- ### **🔥 Final Verdict: Strong Short Bias 📉** 🔹 **Ideal rejection area for a short.** 🔹 **Bearish divergence + weak momentum confirm downside probability.** 🔹 **Break of $106,000 = Fast drop to $104K-$102.5K.** 🚨 **Plan is set—now let the trade execute!** 📊🔥
CME:MBT1!Short
by TheRealMongoose
BTC - Long around 80k after resolution of BTC Futures Volume gapI closed by BTC position (which was infact call spreads on BITO) at 107k and haven't touched it. I don't like to short in general and bitcoin can be very tricky. I am interested in BTC at around 80k after the resolution of the BTC Futures Volume Gap and the mitigation of short interest present at former all time highs etc. If volatility has spiked aggressively I may look to enter into a credit put spread and use that to finance OTM calls at longer expirations, I will do that all on IBIT. On a paper trade I setup a few days ago I have OTM 45 puts on the February 21 contract on IBIT. I didn't actually take the trade as I've been busy managing QQQ and NVDA positions, but it would have served the basis of a multi leg low risk synthetic call if I had. The open papertrade on Optionstrat is linked below. It was planned but I didn't take it because I got distracted by other things like watching 50% of my unrealized profit on NVDA vaporize because of a stupid mistake I made when hedging. optionstrat.com
CME:BTC1!Long
by HundredLotTrader
2
BITCOIN; BTC Indecisive Moment What's Ahead Many annalists had started to say or speculate on the bitcoin price ,mostly regarding a short or mid term bearish case scenario in play I kind of love the 2Weeks charts on bitcoin as well as other markets right now - for a more precise insight of basic market structure rules taking its toll and managed to achieve new all time highs across many sectors not just crypto (SPX ;Gold and so on) Under some sell of circumstances bitcoin may follow a bearish trend and reach lower levels 79k - could be a major support level = as a quick market shake off 70k - could be mostly represented by the next bear market lows 53K - this could happen under an economic crisis coupled with a black swan event Greetings 🍀and the best of luck to you !
CME:BTC1!
by blackriver85
Bitcoin correction inevitableTime to Chart the King! If you've checked my recent ideas, you'll find onefrom 11 December 2022 titled "Run it Back Turbo." Check it out! Press the play button to see how I've pinpointed the perfect bottom! Now, let's dive into why I've decided to close my trade: Wave Count: I've marked the 5 waves we've seen so far. Wave Comparison: Using the Date & Price Range tool, I've compared the size of wave 3 to wave 5. Wave 5 typically matches or exceeds wave 3, and you can see the King has done just that. How much more do you need to satisfy your greed? ABC Correction: We're expecting an ABC correction where: A Wave: Should hit the 0.382 Fibonacci level drawn from the bottom of the count to the current wave 5 peak. B Wave: Logically, this would reach the 0.236 Fibonacci level. C Wave: Expected to extend to the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Fibonacci Retracement for Wave 5: If you draw a Fibonacci retracement just for the 5th wave, you'll see: The A wave should touch the 0.618 level of this measurement. The B wave goes to the 0.382 The C wave, as usual, should retrace fully to the 1.000 Fib level, where it began. CME Gap: Check out the 1-day chart below to see there's still a CME gap to fill on the way down. Monthly Close: We're nearing the first monthly close of Q1. Take a look at the RSI; there's a clear bearish divergence forming. Liquidity Clusters: The liquidity clusters below look enticing and are prime for grabs, essential for further upward movements. Remember, this market thrives on the ping-pong effect with short stop hunts and liquidation hunts, followed by the same to the longs, rinse and repeat. Here you see a freshly pulled LiqMap from The Kingfisher platform currently the only one I know of which can show you these clusters. As you can see we have a ton of liquidity to tap into before we can resume this bullrun! Conclusion: The King Needs to Reset! No reason to be upset. Everyone needs a rest after such a run. We will resume our journey soon enough, reaching those higher targets sooner or later. See the bright side: we can sell now, load up at cheaper prices, and potentially make even bigger profits. Follow me for updates to this idea and follow me on X for even more insights!
CME:BTC1!Education
by Candle_Styx
1
BTC1! Bitcoin possible crash scenario.The BTC1! chart strikes me as particularly interesting because, unlike other BTC charts, professionals use Bitcoin futures contracts here to speculate on BTC's volatility or manage risk in larger portfolios. The trading schedule runs from Monday (opening at 5:00 PM CT) to Friday (closing at 4:00 PM CT). When the Monday opening price differs from the Friday closing price, a gap is created, which is often filled, as historical data shows similar occurrences. Currently, there is an unfilled gap between 80,000 and 78,000. While it's not guaranteed that this gap will close, it's worth keeping an eye on that zone. Interestingly, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level also aligns with this area. Additionally, there's the 0.25 zone where we find an nPOC (naked Point of Control). We could see a significant bounce of 20–40% from these levels. If BTC were to experience a 50% drop from the current point, it would bring us to around 54,000. Historically, it tends to have a substantial bounce whenever BTC has fallen more than 40%, making these levels worth monitoring closely.
CME:BTC1!Short
by BOT721