Can FCPO Malaysia Palm Oil Sustain Above 4700?palm oil deep fall on last Thurs, yet on Friday palm oil prices bounced back from the weakness as tightness in palm oil supply remained support.
Another factor could be the next focus, that is weather concerns. La Nina is expected by the 2nd straight winter, hit soybean means hit soybean oil as well.
Highly expected retracement in palm oil may not last long despite China and India might strengthen regulation on speculative activities.
which level should we watch out??
the nearest support at 4700, which is the level Friday hit and bounce.
once broken 4700, means small correction in short term. Market likely to test support level at 4500 before it resume its uptrend.
In summary, overall remain bullish view for palm oil market.
CPO1! trade ideas
Is Malaysia Palm Oil Futures Having Divergence?? candlesticks formed long black bar ( bearish engulfing ) at resistance level .
Besides, MACD starting to cross down, signaled downtrend started.
We shall see FCPO decline in coming days.
Traders may take this opportunity to short in market with stop loss at the high of 5220.
-market extended gains closed at record high as Oct export data improved amid lacklustre production
-market likely to move higher if market stays above 5070; target market range 5065-5245
-support level:
S1 5025 S2 4978 S3 4931
-resistance level:
R1 5100 R2 5147 R3 5194
-yesterday daily settlement: 5071
mid: 5022
strategy 1: Long if stay above 5100
tg stop 5053
tg exit 5147-5241
strategy 2: Short if stay below 4945
tg stop 4992
tg exit 4804-4898
FCPO 18 Oct 2021 : Re-entry EMA14 & Bullish pennant1. Setup : EMA14>EMA50 = Uptrend
2. Signal: Re-test EMA14
3. Confirmation : 5min bullish engulfing + Bullish pennant pattern
4. Entry : at the low side of pennant triangle
5. SL : 10 tick below signal CS
6. TP : fibo extension 100% / until reversal CS
Price near resistance but not retest yet the highest level.
Risky setup possible price go down.
FCPO 14 Oct 2021 : Break EMA50 and price sideway1. Yesterday price able to make a new ATH with a valid breakout
Trading Plan :
1. Setup : Price cross EMA50 indicates price might be downtrend or sideway.
2. Signal : Rejection @ 15min
3. Confirmation: Bullish engulfing
4. Entry: 50% of bullish engulfing
6. SL: 10tick below recent rejection
7. TP is subjective
FCPO JAN2022 Contract outlookAs we generally know that CPO products usually have a bullish trend towards the end of the year due to short supply for any reason.
Therefore, if the price is still in bullish momentum, there are multiple possibilities.
New contract price range (FCPOF2022)
Possibilities :
1)If the uptrend is still strong, the JAN2022 contract will try to break higher and close beyond the trendline.
2)If today's price is still sideways, we are looking for a possible fake breakout/rejection for an uptrend.
3)If price valid breakout support, possible downtrend or retracement
FCPO TRADING : 304) RM5k here we come! this is haidojo and the number is 304 ...
Today is 13th Oct 2021 and fcpo-dec21 is going to expire in 2 days or less. October has been blessed with the continuation of aggressive bull which resumes the rally frm last month. Still, the momentum of the long-run bull persists and there is no sign of slowing down. If you are trading some kinda trend-following/continuation trades, this could be your month.
As for today, the fcpo-dec has broken abv and closed abv RM5k. A historical benchmark and also an important milestone in the history of the fcpo price. So how far it could go? that is a million dollar question. U can projectile it using whatever indicator/method you like, but my conclusion is simple. I shall continue trading "long" as long as it is an uptrend. IF it reverses, THEN stick to the downtrend. Follow the trend. As simple as that. IF it consolidates, THEN it is not gud for me. haha. I dun have strategy for sideway yet. There is idea, but not yet tested.
One more precaution we might want to take heed is the tide might change after the exchange date of 16th Oct 21- which will fall upon us in no less than 3 days. SO, till then...stick to "long on retracement", with effective stop-loss. THEN wait for the new trend OR continuation of uptrend on 28th Oct 21 with new active third month, fcpo-Jan 22.
*plan your trade and trade your plan... gud luck*
resistance : 5040-???
support : 4930-4980
critical support : 4753-4820 (bull is valid till here)
WARNING!
RISK DISCLAIMER : this is juz a trading idea...trading stocks, futures , cryptos, warrants, CFDs, spreads, options or forex might incur a huge risk to your account/funds… DON’T LOSE MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD …any idea(s) of trading in this episode SHALL NOT be regarded as a hint of BUYING or SELLING . It is MERELY a trading journal and it has been used for educational purpose only… trade at your own risk!
FCPO 13 Oct 2021 : Re-entry Sell EMA14Yesterday closing market setup.
Trading Plan :
1. Setup : EMA14<EMA50 = Sell trend
2. Signal: 15min Price retest EMA14
3. Confirmation: 5min Bearish Engulfing
4. Entry: at least 50% bearish engulfing body CS
5. SL: 10tick above retest CS
6. TP: 15min support area / if there any rejection
If today price open above EMA14 consider the market sideway with this possibilities :
1) Test EMA50
2) Test Resistance (R1):4900 and Support (S1):4849
Notice price is closer to the major uptrend line. Price may break the trendline or reject the trendline to continue bullish momentum.
Trade.At.Your.Own.Risk (TAYOR)
Crude Palm Oil (FCPO)-Simple Wave CountToday is 11 October 2021. It's not even half of the month yet but price of FCPO has reached Monthly R2 (Traditional Pivot). That indicates the price is already overstretched. I believed the price should retrace. Furthermore, The bearish divergence does support the wave count that price already topped for wave 3 base on Elliott Wave count. Further confirmation is needed i.e. must break down the trendline and successfully retest it and continue the short-term downtrend.
FCPO is in a very bullish mode so I don't expect the price to retrace way below the Monthly R1 at 4785. Moreover, there is Weekly Pivot at 4811 to act as the first strong support that might be the catalyst for buyers to jump in the rally again.
The target for wave v is base on 1:1 ratio with wave i. It could go higher or lower than that.
FCPO 12 Oct 2021 : Breakout EMA501. Yesterday 15min CS have a reversal pattern with bearish engulfing @ 5min TF.
2. Today's price has a valid breakout of EMA50. there are 2 possibilities when price breakout EMA50 :
i) Bigger sideway range
ii) Continue downtrend
3. Signal: 1st pullback after a breakout
4. Entry: After bearish engulfing @5min + 15min Bearish engulfing
5. SL: 10tick above highest pullback CS.
6. TP: target support area / until 15min have reversal CS.
TAYOR
Live FCPO Trade : 12 Oct'21 (PM, Long)1. Entered a trade based on Discretionary on Green Pentagon.
2. Exit partial as the price progresses.
3. Flatten the trade when price comes back to the Entry Price for the 2nd time.
Total contracts trade:
Entry : 5 contracts.
Exit partial 1 : 2 contracts @ 5pts.
Exit partial 2 : 3 contracts @ 1pts.
Live FCPO Trade : 12 Oct'21 (AM, Long)- Did a Long trade as price was at the bottom and created a nice base.
- Entry on 2nd Green Pentagon Guider with a SL of 10 pts.
- TP at 20pts but monitor as chart unfolds; exit when Red Pentagon appears.
Total contracts Entered: 6
Exit partial 1 : 2 contracts @ 5pts profit.
Exit partial 2 : 4 contracts @ 5pts profit.
FCPO 11 Oct 2021 : Re entry EMA14Today BMD increased the min margin to RM7000 due to the high volatility of the market.
Trading plan today :
1. Setup: EMA14>EMA50 @15min TF
2. Signal: Price retest EMA14 @15min TF
3. Confirmation : Bullish Engulfing @ 5min TF
4. Entry: Since bullish engulfing body CS below 10tick, enter by market order.
5. Exit SL : 10tick below retest CS
6. TP: nearest resistance/ when bear CS @15min appear..
TAYOR