CME Futures on ETHThere are 3 distinct gaps to be filled for ETH Futures: 2 gaps on the downside, 1 on the upside.
As for BTC Futures, the first gap on the downside ($2,096-$2,153) could be filled before to find a bottom on ETH if the BTC and the whole crypto market experiences a last Long squeeze to "wash" the market from high leveraged trades on the market.
Anyway, we see this scenario likely to appear only IF the macro economic and political situation is getting worst (Impact of the FED decisions on the market, political situation in Russia/Ukraine)
However, the on-chain analysis for BTC, ETH and major crypto currencies seems to get some mid/long-term bullish signs lately (Additional on-chain analysis to be done in the coming days).
So the near term price action for crypto seems to be very correlated with the macro situation of the global economy.
From here we can see different potential scenarios:
Bullish one:
Markets (SP500, Nasdaq, commodities, crypto) have already priced the FOMC announcements and the political situation in Est Europe is cooling down.
Thus, the short-term price action for ETH could be to fill the CME gap on the upside (above $3,083) before to consolidate on this price region validating a new local resistance before to resume its mid-term uptrend (2-6 months) to reach a new ATH (All Time High) and enters into a price discovery zone.
Mitigate bullish scenario/bearish scenario:
The political situation is cooling down in East Europe but the major financial markets are entering into a longer bear market.
First step would be to go into the $2,000 region to fill that CME gap. Then, either the crypto market succeeds in being uncorrelated from traditional markets & reclaim a $2,700 - $3,100 before to consolidate with an increased volume, or it stays correlated and we can see a confirmed bear market below $2,000 for a while, including to fill the thin CME gap around $1,560.
If the first step prevails, we could see a short-term price action with some volatility on the downside to long squeeze leveraged traders and fill the $2,000ish gap before to bounce back above the $2,500 then consolidate, a bit longer then in the first scenario and later on resume the uptrend to new ATH (around this summer)
If the second step prevails, then we could see either, a huge sell off below $2,000ish and sidelines there between $1,200 and $2,000 for several months (Bear market)
To summarize, the market direction is still complex to identified as external macro factors are playing.
Anyway, according to the very optimistic on-chain indicators, the chances to see a resume and continuation of the uptrend in 2022 is higher than a risk of bear market. However, the macro economic and political news will most likely play a major role in the crypto market sentiment!
Stay tuned for the next update.
Swiss blockchain Consulting is a Swiss company based which provides Fundamental Analysis on the crypto currencies market.
SBC is NOT a Financial Adviser.
SBC recommends to any new investor in this space to do his own research (DYOR).
