ETHEREUM BEARISH SCENARIOETH price may find support near $1,315, and a bearish breakthrough of that level might open the door to more selling to $1,275. A lot of uncertainty on crypto regulations is pulling investors from classic projects like ETH and BTC and pouring into the new generation of crypto assets such as Solana and Cardano. SEC is pressured and this is considered a ticking bomb with multi-directional shrapnel that might end a few giants and crown the new era.
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ETH1! trade ideas
$ETH leading $BTC again - Looking better, againNot much buying in $BTC & $ETH
Technically #BTC looks ok
#ETH looks bit better
Need 2c conviction & volume is simply NOT THERE
Some technical improving on DAILY but NOT weekly
More on #bitcoin & #ethereum below
Weekly & daily chart
-
$ETH breaking ^ resistance, orange
Bullish moving avg crossover
RSI healthy
#ETH weekly
ABOVE RED Mov Avg
RSI getting there
Potential double bottom
NO BUY VOLUME
Small downtrends BUT MAJOR, YELLOW = problem
#ethereum leading $BTC
Need #BTC 2 LEAD
#crypto
ETH Open Long (eng)Hello Friends.
Unfortunately, the final way down did not wait
A big player closed his short position and managed to get a long position during the flat.
Yesterday before the stock market closing I fixed the volume impulse, which finally indicated a trend reversal, at least the local one.
Closed my previous position from 11.08.2022 from the price 1505.
it appeared +15.5%
Opened Long from 1273
From 06.01.2023 time 20:12 (GMT)
The arrow points in the direction of the open trade only, without the final target
Thus I got encouraging statistics
11 positive deals and 0 negative ones during the time period since 08.07.2021 up to now
What confirms the correctness of analysis and approach
418.2% profit for a specified period of time using the leverage of x1
Thank you all for your attention and have a nice trade in the New Year!
ETH - Lesser of the Two Crypto BearsCrypto winter is here. Is this the darkest before dawn? Or the start of a long artic winter ahead?
In such nebulous times, directional bets are rife with risks. In contrast, spread trades vastly lowers risk while enabling limited but durable returns.
Set against the current macro backdrop and landscape shift in the industry, this case study will argue that Ether exhibits greater price resilience relative to Bitcoin prices.
Accordingly, a long position in CME Micro Ether Futures combined with a short position in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures provides an opportunity to extract yield in a bearish market.
Spread entry at 0.0721 with a target at 0.0793 delivers a reward to risk ratio of 1.88 with returns of $1,660. A stop loss of 0.0684 will limit losses from the spread trade to $880.
A RESILIENT ETHER?
Crypto winter plus recession fears in major economies will keep crypto prices subdued with continuing downside pressure.
After a successful massive upgrade last year, the Ethereum blockchain reduced its carbon footprint. Next big enhancement is the Shanghai upgrade expected in March. This upgrade enables withdrawal of staked Ether representing ~13% of the entire supply.
Staked Ether withdrawal will be gradual. Even though this might increase selling pressure, it will be less so relative to what Bitcoin faces as described below.
GBTC LINKED BITCOIN SELLING PRESSURE
Last November, Genesis (a major crypto lender) halted withdrawals citing a $1 billion shortfall. Genesis is looking to avoid bankruptcy filing. Its bankruptcy could spell contagion in crypto markets accelerating selling pressure.
Genesis’ parent company Digital Currency Group ("DCG") operates the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. Grayscale’s flagship product GBTC has suffered sharp sell-off resulting in a staggering 45% discount to NAV presently.
Grayscale’s attempt to convert GBTC to a spot BTC ETF allows them to rebalance their holdings to narrow the discount. But their application to transform into an ETF has been denied by the SEC. Grayscale is appealing against the SEC’s decision in court with an outcome anticipated this quarter.
If the ruling goes against them, Grayscale plans to offload up to 20% of GBTC shares leading to sales of 128,000 bitcoins which will send its prices tanking.
BITCOIN MARKET CYCLES – WILL HISTORY REPEAT? PERHAPS NOT.
Crypto winter is not new. Previous winter cycles of extended periods of subdued price action were followed by massive bull rally. Hope springs eternal but this time could be different.
Bitcoin as an asset class will face recessionary environment for the first time ever. Unlike in 2018, long term holders (>1Y) have not moved their holdings this time around but hold massive losses on their portfolios down some 50% to 80% which could aggravate bitcoin downside pressures when selling begins.
POOR FUNDAMENTALS BUT NEUTRAL TECHNICAL SIGNALS IN BITCOIN
Bitcoin’s long-term moving average has served as a strong resistance and continues to be in a downtrend.
Falling realised volatility points to a sideways market with limited liquidity and leverage. Declining market volume vindicates that. Orange Fibonacci retracement level which proved to be strong resistance also coincides with the pivot level P could be challenged once the Grayscale-SEC court ruling is out later this quarter.
ETHER TECHNICALS POINT TO A SIDEWAYS MARKET DESPITE OUTPERFORMANCE OVER BITCOIN
Ether has remained highly correlated with Bitcoin for the past two months. The long-term (100-day) moving average has served as a weak resistance as Ether broke through this level during November. The long-term moving average has become flat over the past two months in sharp contrast to a bearish one for Bitcoin.
In the previous period of low HV (October to November), Ether outperformed Bitcoin by a stunning 22%.
Stochastic for both Bitcoin and Ether point to oversold levels.
OPTIONS MARKET FAVORS ETHER OVER BITCOIN
Bitcoin has a put/call ratio of 2.5 on the CME in sharp distinction to Ether’s put/call ratio of only 0.8. On Deribit markets, put call for Ether is two-times lower relative to Bitcoin. Options traders clearly favor Ether over Bitcoin.
TRADE SETUP
A spread position of long CME Micro Ether Futures and short CME Micro Bitcoin futures.
Spread trades require notional values of each leg to be equal. Each contract of CME Micro Ether Futures and CME Micro Bitcoin Futures both expiring in Feb 2023 provides exposure to 0.1 Ether ($120) and 0.1 Bitcoin ($1,665), respectively.
Fourteen (14) lots of long positions in CME Micro Ether Futures will provide a notional value of $1,680 to offset one lot of CME Micro Bitcoin Futures which has notional $1,665.
Entry: 0.0721
Target: 0.0793
Stop Loss: 0.0684
Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.88
Profit at Target: $1,660
Loss at Stop Loss: $880
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person.
Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience.
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Ethereum - lack of volume - volatile FOMC meeting timeEven in case of bullish fakeouts
Assuming good news at FOMC announcement we might see a quick move up for ETH due to lack of volume above dear Crypto Nation
That's the power of volume - be prepared‼️
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗
Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
Ethereum Multi time frames 🔵1 h chart 🔴4 h chart 🟢daily chartEthereum Multi time frames
🔵1 h chart - possible correction should find volume support at $1,202
🔴4 h chart - further support given by EMA50
🟢daily chart - a break of 1,269 would be a huge bullish signal 🚨👀
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗
Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
Adoption reduces in the because most boarded the hype train and The world has spiralled too far out of control, into the control of a select few.
We’ve become so heavily suppressed that ‘cancelling’ is now a normality.
It absolutely isn’t.
This is the first time in a long time we’re seeing a push back, let’s not stop now.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to determine that the entire crypto market was incredibly overvalued with little reason besides hype inflating prices.
Adoption reduces in the because most boarded the hype train and will naturally depart with it.
Happens every time, chill.
Psychological WarfareI’ve never been one to shy away from the harsher realities of participating in the financial markets. If you follow me on social media, you’re likely no stranger to my beliefs in showing both sides of the digital coin.
To successfully play in this field, you first need to have a general awareness of your importance within the market, which is none. We tend to be rather fragile when it comes to the ego being rattled, it’s not easy for most to accept that they are an irrelevant metric in the market they choose to dabble in. It’s even harder when the ego has something to prove and believes it deserves to be crowned a winner of the markets.
You never truly conquer the art of trading, anyone carrying such a belief has been humbled quickly by the unpredictable shifts in the behaviour of the financial markets. It’s an endless battle, faced against an opponent with the capability of never allowing you to know its next move. Blindly challenging such an enemy is a foolish approach, especially if you’re repetitively going in for the same method of attack with little success. The opponent knows you better than you know yourself, it already knows the likelihood of where you’ll attack. This opponent has mastered the art of hunting and thrives on the consumption of those who fall for the bait. It learns from its feeding habits, it inherently possesses a very large appetite, and greed drives it to feed on the swarms of smaller prey blindly running into its trap.
The financial markets are interconnected with almost every aspect of our current reality.
The mainstream media, global economy, and politics are just a handful to mention. All of these carry one key similarity, centralisation. A concentration of power is left in the hands of those who thrive on the dominance they have instilled over mankind. To retain such status is no easy task, you certainly cannot achieve it without pulling a few strings and manipulating your way to the top.
I imagine the financial markets as the heart, with the individual sectors making up the ‘system’ to be the arteries that facilitate the stimulation of the heart. For the heart (market) to be stimulated, it requires nutrients (data) to flow through the arteries (the system). The problem here lies in the fact that the system stimulating the markets operates on a pyramid-hierarchy model, where a handful of players pull the strings. The data is frequently polluted, to create irregular behaviour from the market and unpredictable volatility. This heart is man-made, with the creators having full control over how it beats.
You couldn’t possibly expect a market dependent on the decisions, actions, and words of a select few to be free of manipulation, could you?
It’s fuelled by a monopoly of power. The corruption and manipulation within the very system the markets reflect can be visualised in real-time thanks to candlestick charts. It’s executed in broad daylight for all to see, yet most continue falling for the same tricks, unable to comprehend that they have entered a playground where their suffering benefits the pockets of those pulling the strings.
Whilst many different factors and methods go into the manipulation of the financial markets, which we will save for another article, it all stems from the same source, that being greed.
The market makers prey on the vulnerability of those who possess the traits of sheep, blindly flocking in herds to their slaughter. Greed is the driving force behind this mentality, it can eradicate all rationale. In an irrational and emotional state, you are at your most vulnerable. When critical thinking is clouded by emotions, you are very easily susceptible to external programming. We saw this example showcased in real life throughout the COVID Pandemic.
Ethereum Multi time frames 🔵1 h chart 🔴4 h chart 🟢daily chartEthereum Multi time frames
🔵1 h chart - SMA200 and volume resistance $1,202 as strong combination to break🚨👀
🔴4 h chart - further resistance with EMA50
🟢daily chart - strong volume support at $1,086.5
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗
Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
$ETH likely follow $BTC, Long time since it follows, not leadWHAT IS THIS?!?!?!
DO YOU SEE IT?!?!?!
SEE $BTC chart published first
Granted, this is 4hr chart but $BTC is FINALLY leading!
RSI looks good on both
$ETH lagging but will likely FOLLOW
THIS IS GREAT NEWS
AGAIN
4 Hr chart, don't get so excited but nice PLUS
#BTC #ETH #Ethereum #Bitcoin #crypto
🔥🔥 Futures on ETH: The roof, the roof, the roof is on fireBitcoin, Ethereum and most other cryptocurrencies fell on Tuesday 08-11-2022 following Binance's announcement of its intention to acquire FTX, heightening concerns about liquidity in the industry.
According to TradingView, the Total Market Cap - the global value of the entire crypto sector was down 15% on the past day, reaching $813 billion.
Bitcoin lost 12%, Ethereum lost 17.5% and Dogecoin lost 25%.
The FTX token crashed 84% and Binance's BNB also reversed a sharp previous 17% gain and turned negative, falling 6%.
“To protect users, we have signed a non-binding Letter of Intent, planning to fully acquire FTX.com and help manage the liquidity crisis,” Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao tweeted.
Zhao added that the deal is pending confirmation of his firm's ability to conduct due diligence on the FTX purchase and the exchange itself.
A liquidity crisis plagued the FTX exchange at the beginning of the week amid a sharp decline in FTX Token.
A CoinDesk report last week suggested that FTX-owned Alameda Research's balance sheet is heavily dependent on FTT, raising concerns that the two parts of the Bankman-Fried e mpire depend on illiquid cryptocurrencies rather than cash or other liquid assets.
The liquidity problems of the crypto sector arose after the crash at the beginning of the year, which erased $340 billion of market capitalization and lowered ETH from $3,900 to $2,200, followed by the collapse of the “stable” Terra UST coin, forming a steady series of crashes in the industry, following behind the increase in interest rates of the Federal Reserve against the backdrop of its fight against "indomitable inflation".
The technical picture in ETH futures points to potentially increased risks of further erosion and disruption of the crypto market as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cycle nears its climax and logical conclusion before the end of 2022.
The left scale shows market expectations for a Fed rate by the end of Q1'23. That is well above 10-year US Government Treasuries yield.
ETH 1630 Target Achieved, What Next?Technical & Trade View
Ethereum Continuous Futures Contract (ETHUSD)
Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1520
Option Expiry:
1630 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Technicals
Intraday 1525 is primary support
Primary pattern objective is 1690
Acceptance above 1620 next pattern confirmation
Failure below 1510 opens a test of 1470
20 Day VWAP bullish , 5 Day VWAP bullish
ETH looks very good but don't get cockyDone with #stocks till Nov, unless something crazy happens & need unload more winners, going 2 chill
FULLY VESTED in #crypto, moving huge winners into next possible movers
Showed most moves "here" ( I just copy paste lol)
$ETH slowly selling off BUT GREEN CANDLES = open down, rally up
#ETH Volume so so
HOWEVER!
DON'T get cocky!!!
While we've been $ETH bull & #altcoin, we're not out the woods
#ETH BUY VOLUME mostly there
#ethereum capitulation likely June
#short show this too
Most signs of bottom in longest
❤️fact we need to break Inverse Head & Shoulder + downtrend @ same time
ETH To Test 1630/50Technical & Trade View
Ethereum Continuous Futures Contract
Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1460
Option Expiry:
Technicals
Intraday 1460 is primary support
Primary pattern objective is 1630/50
Acceptance above 1560 next pattern confirmation
Failure below 1430 opens a test of 1370
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Expected ETH movement & what if you missed the rally - Thread1/
What if you missed the rally?
Chances are most have, what to do?
$ETH still looks healthy for the most part
1650, but imo 1730ish over time, maybe green lines
HOWEVER, #ETH overbought
Next few days should be interesting 4 #Ethereum, way hard to call a definitive direction
Other posts are on other crypto, thread/charts not avail
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$CGG
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