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ETH1! trade ideas

Potential Bearish ContinuationOn the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud, it supports our bearish bias that price will drop from our sell entry and overlap resistance at 2117.0 in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement to our take profit at the swing low at 1728.0. Alternatively, price may break our buy entry level and rise to the stop loss and overlap resistance at 2272.0 in line with our 38.2% fibonacci retracement. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CME:ETH1!Short
by Rockqet
CME Futures on ETHThere are 3 distinct gaps to be filled for ETH Futures: 2 gaps on the downside, 1 on the upside. As for BTC Futures, the first gap on the downside ($2,096-$2,153) could be filled before to find a bottom on ETH if the BTC and the whole crypto market experiences a last Long squeeze to "wash" the market from high leveraged trades on the market. Anyway, we see this scenario likely to appear only IF the macro economic and political situation is getting worst (Impact of the FED decisions on the market, political situation in Russia/Ukraine) However, the on-chain analysis for BTC, ETH and major crypto currencies seems to get some mid/long-term bullish signs lately (Additional on-chain analysis to be done in the coming days). So the near term price action for crypto seems to be very correlated with the macro situation of the global economy. From here we can see different potential scenarios: Bullish one: Markets (SP500, Nasdaq, commodities, crypto) have already priced the FOMC announcements and the political situation in Est Europe is cooling down. Thus, the short-term price action for ETH could be to fill the CME gap on the upside (above $3,083) before to consolidate on this price region validating a new local resistance before to resume its mid-term uptrend (2-6 months) to reach a new ATH (All Time High) and enters into a price discovery zone. Mitigate bullish scenario/bearish scenario: The political situation is cooling down in East Europe but the major financial markets are entering into a longer bear market. First step would be to go into the $2,000 region to fill that CME gap. Then, either the crypto market succeeds in being uncorrelated from traditional markets & reclaim a $2,700 - $3,100 before to consolidate with an increased volume, or it stays correlated and we can see a confirmed bear market below $2,000 for a while, including to fill the thin CME gap around $1,560. If the first step prevails, we could see a short-term price action with some volatility on the downside to long squeeze leveraged traders and fill the $2,000ish gap before to bounce back above the $2,500 then consolidate, a bit longer then in the first scenario and later on resume the uptrend to new ATH (around this summer) If the second step prevails, then we could see either, a huge sell off below $2,000ish and sidelines there between $1,200 and $2,000 for several months (Bear market) To summarize, the market direction is still complex to identified as external macro factors are playing. Anyway, according to the very optimistic on-chain indicators, the chances to see a resume and continuation of the uptrend in 2022 is higher than a risk of bear market. However, the macro economic and political news will most likely play a major role in the crypto market sentiment! Stay tuned for the next update. Swiss blockchain Consulting is a Swiss company based which provides Fundamental Analysis on the crypto currencies market. SBC is NOT a Financial Adviser. SBC recommends to any new investor in this space to do his own research (DYOR).
CME:ETH1!
by Swiss_Blockchain_Consulting
SPX vs. NASDAQ vs. BTC1! vs. ETH1!: filling the gapsWe are in for a big week with the Fed's announcement on potential interest hikes and further tapering of their bond buying program. Are they already priced in? Let's have a look... We have seen the typical panic across the board for the Fed's announcement (we knew this since last July!), the expectations are increased interest rates and potentially more than 4 hikes this year. Obviously, this is needed because of the record inflation numbers. However the Fed also wants to prevent heavy corrections in the market. Since the March 2020 lows, both stocks and crypto have been flying on monetary expansion and inflation creating a buy the rumor, and - when inflation numbers hit the market - sell the news. We have seen a strong correction in Bitcoin, the S&P500 and the Nasdaq. Does this means interest hikes are priced in and this is the bottom? Maybe. But I still lean towards; no. There are many factors at play here, the most obvious one are the futures and options on Bitcoin, the S&P500 and the Nasdaq. With increasingly bearish action and bearish puts or shorts, market makers had to respond with a squeeze. Most obviously in Bitcoin, where a few hundred million of short liquidations were within reach. I also posted about a potential squeeze on Friday - even though price dipped further - a squeeze was expected and therefor always take profits before you get wiped out. The ball is now with the Fed and I assume market makers already know the outcome of their new policy or have a clue. This defines also my trading strategy: what would I do if I was the market maker. Now, puts and shorts have been favor for the last week, creating reason for a squeeze, however, net gamm is still long and institutions have taken a hit with bullish calls on BTC. In the last 24 hours has seen a total of 300M liquidations (on all coins) and there is still liquidity to take out to the upside but offset that with immense call volume above 40K uptill 100K+ there is room for downside as well. With a relatively big options expiration on Friday, further downside towards the 30K zone could be favored even though max pain is at 42K. This is also seen in the higher volume in at the money options traded by the market makers to hedge against lower prices. Furthermore, puts at the 30K zone could be consumed by the market maker to create liquidity for a short squeeze in February - unless see a rally on Wednesday already if the Fed announces mild policies. Short conclusion is: the market maker is neutral at this point having hedged against the recent drops and now awaits the reaction to the Fed on Wednesday. Mind you, they will know it much earlier than you so they will start to act before the news is out. We can not trade any direction at this point and you're not missing out on anything if you're in cash right now. Risk / return wise cash is the place to be and it has been ever since my first warning in early December. Sentiment around Bitcoin is becoming increasingly bearish and Ethereum increasingly bullish; something that I expected for a while now and a full story on that later. All gaps to the upside are filled here and there are only gaps left to the downside, a direction that market makers have been preparing and retail has not considered. Short term we can expect a choppy market again, long term I do expect further continuation of the trend especially if we can not reclaim the weekly 50 EMA. First, lets wait for Wednesday. IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
CME:ETH1!
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
1