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HE1! trade ideas

Are Lean Hogs Out of Gas? Lean Hogs Daily Direct Hogs Plant Delivered (as of 1:30 PM CT) Carcass Base Price Range: 114.00-136.00 Weighted Average: 123.69 Change from Prior Day: 2.32 Head Count: 6,089 Daily Hog Slaughter 440,000. Down 12,000 from last week and 24,000 from last year. Commitments of Traders Update Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed that Managed Money were net buyers of 8,402 futures/options contracts through August 9th. This expands their net long position to 65,153 contracts Technical Snapshot October lean hogs made new contract highs on Thursday, but it really lacked conviction. The lack of conviction helped spark some moderate profit taking on Friday. Bearish news from China has put some weakness into the outside markets, this may spill into hogs to start the week. If the market does experience weakness, a retracement to last week’s breakout point would be the first downside objective, Resistance: 101.65** Pivot: 100.375-100.825 Support: 98.05-98.25***, 96.775-97.525***, 94.30-95.30*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:HE1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Will lean hog catch up?The commodities market is a close-knit one, with the price hike in one commodity often affecting another. Such correlation is evident in agricultural products such as soybean meals, corn, and lean hogs. Lean hog prices are highly correlated with Soybean Meal and Corn as young feeder pigs are fed a diet of roughly 70% corn and 30% soybean meal. As such when corn and soybean prices rise, lean hog prices often follow suit. As spelt out in some of our previous ideas , we think agricultural commodities are due for a rally amid the backdrop of supply chain constraints arising from the Russian-Ukraine crisis, and high fertilizer costs (due to surging natural gas prices) which in turn feed into crop planting cost. Over the past 3 weeks, most agricultural products staged a rebound with Soybean Meal and Corn getting in on the action as well. The rally resulted in Corn prices up 15% and Soybean Meal prices up 10% from 3 weeks ago while lean hog prices lagged, moving only 4.4%. Thus, we think that lean hog prices have room for more upside. Looking at the chart of HEZ2022, we see the lean hog December 2022 futures breaking out of the range established from the start of the year and coming back to retest the range-high. We see this as support for lean hog prices to break up. Should agricultural commodities continue their rally, higher feed cost would be translated into high lean hog prices. Spread Entry at 90.250, stops at 87.850. Targets at 95. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Reference: www.cmegroup.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME:HEZ2022Long
by inspirante
4
Lean Hog Commodity USASun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series Focus: Worldwide By Sun Storm Investment Research & NexGen Wealth Management Service A Profit & Solutions Strategy & Research Trading | Investment | Stocks | ETF | Mutual Funds | Crypto | Bonds | Options | Dividend | Futures | USA | Canada | UK | Germany | France | Italy | Rest of Europe | Mexico | India Disclaimer: Sun Storm Investment and NexGen are not registered financial advisors, so please do your own research before trading & investing anything. This is information is for only research purposes not for actual trading & investing decision. #debadipb #profitsolutions
CME:HE1!
by Sunstorminvest
Lean Hogs Reach Uncharted Territory Hogs Daily Direct Hogs Plant Delivered (as of 1:30 PM CT) Carcass Base Price Range: 115.00-138.00 Weighted Average: 132.48 Change from Prior Day: 1.35 Head Count: 25,266 Daily Hog Slaughter 474,000. 5,000 more than last week and unchanged from last year. Weekly Export Sales Pork: Net sales of 21,500 MT for 2022 were down 31 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. Technical Snapshot October lean hogs stuck their head out above the March highs as the market continues to stage a counter seasonal rally. Fundamentals remain strong and the chart looks good. With the market in uncharted territory, finding the next meaningful resistance point is a lot like a game of pin the tail on the donkey. The RSI is approaching overbought with a reading of 68. Typically, anything over 70 is considered overbought. Keep in mind though that we did see the RSI get to 84 back in February. So, a high RSI is not a good enough reason to short the market. Resistance: ??? Pivot: 100.375-100.825 Support: 97.525-97.85***, 94.30-95.30*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:HE1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Short the Hog Margin If You Expect Lower Pork PriceCME:HE1! CBOT:ZC1! CBOT:ZM1! On August 1st, USDA Daily Hog and Pork Report shows that benchmark Iowa Carcass Base Price averages $128/cwt. This is a 15% increase year-over-year, and a whopping 70% higher than the five-year average of $75. Is pork still affordable? Meanwhile in the futures market, while August Lean Hog contract (HEQ2) is quoted at $120.50/cwt, October (HEV2) is sharply lower at $97, and December (HEZ2) is even lower at $87.80. Do we expect pork price to fall a few months down the road? Let’s find out what moves pork price. We start with hog production. It consists of five phases: 1. Farrow-to-wean 2. Feeder pig 3. Finishing 4. Breeding stock 5. Farrow-to-finish Pork price fluctuates following a cobweb pattern due to production lags and adaptive expectations, according to Cambridge economist Nicholas Kaldor. When prices are higher, it draws more investments. However, due to breeding time, there is lapse in the cycle. Eventually, market becomes saturated, leading to a decline in prices. Production is thus decreased. Again, this leads to increased demand and prices. The Hog Cycle repeats, producing a supply-demand graph resembling a cobweb. Hog farmers make business decisions based on their expectations of production profit, which is called Hog Crush Margin . It is defined by the value of lean hog (LH) less the cost of weaned pig (WP), corn (C) and soybean meal (SBM). Below is a sample formula. HCM = 2 x LH - WP - 10 x C -.075 x SBM In futures market, traders could replicate the economic hog crush margin with a Hog Feeding Spread involving CME lean hog (HE), CBOT Corn (ZC) and CBOT Soybean Meal (ZM). There is no futures contract for weaned pig (piglet). The size of relevant futures contracts: HE, 40,000 lbs.; ZC, 5,000 bushels; and ZM, 100 short tons. A typical hog feeding spread is 7:3:1, which may be expressed as: Hog Feeding Spread = 7 x HE – 3 x ZC – 1 x ZM If you expect hog margin to grow, Long the feeding spread: Buy lean hog, sell corn and soybean meal. For a shrinking margin, Short the spread: Sell hog, buy corn and meal. According to Chicago-based consultancy CIH, hog margin for July 1st-15th was $16.74. Margins surged over the first half of July as hog futures rallied while projected feed costs mostly trended sideways during this period. I expect a narrower hog crush margin going into 2023. It may likely turn negative. My theory : On the one hand, corn and soybean meal prices may fall but stay elevated. Russia-Ukraine conflict, bad weather and supply chain bottleneck present real risk for global food supply shortage. On the other hand, pork price could fall faster than feed ingredients. The combined effect is a narrowing hog crush margin. Several factors are at work: Firstly, the hog cycle. Higher price this year will induce more production next year, eventually lowering price. Secondly, with hyperinflation and a pending recession, we should expect substitution effect. Consumer would choose lower-priced protein over pork, reducing pork demand. Finally, China is the wild card. China is the world's largest pork producer. In 2018, it produced 54 million tons (MT) of pork, accounting for 45% of global pork production. With the outbreak of African Swine Fever starting in August 2018, it is estimated that half of China’s hog stock was wiped out over the next year. Pork production in 2019 was 42.55 MT, down 21%. To make up for the shortfall in domestic supply, China began buying pork in the global market in a big way. Frozen pork import grew from 1.19 MT in 2018, to 2.11 MT in 2019 (+75%), and 4.39 MT in 2020 (+108%), which took up half of global pork trades that year. CME lean hog rallied 60% in 2019. More buying from China means more pork demand in Americas and Europe. Global pork price and pork futures price both went up as a result. However, the party did not last long. China’s large hog firms aggressively racked up production capacity with government support. Muyang Group SZSE:002714 , the largest hog producer in the world, grew sales from 9 million hogs in 2019, to 18 million in 2020 (+100%), and 40 million in 2021 (+120%). It is on track to produce 55-60 million hogs this year (+38%~+50%). With domestic production largely recovered, China reduced pork import to 3.71 MT in 2021, down 15%. For the first six months in 2022, China imported only 810,000 tons, down 65% from the same period in 2021. China’s pork price has doubled from its February low. Again, with the Hog Cycle at work, there will be an oversupply of pork next year, further reducing the need for import. We could examine corn price trend further. Corn generally traded in the range of $3 to $4.50 per bushel but shot up to $7 in May 2021. It broke record again this year at $8 per bushel in April. I expect the corn price to fall but stay elevated from previous-year level. Soybean Meal is 50% higher than two years ago. Again, I expect it to fall but stay higher than pre-2020 level. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME:HE1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
1
Lean Hogs RallyLean Hogs Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 5,411 futures/options through July 19th. This expands their net long position to 45,435 contracts. Technicals (October): October lean hogs were able to breakout above the top end of the range from May and June, this could propel prices back to the march highs, 100.825. On the support side of things, the 100-day moving average lines up with previous resistance near 94.30-95.30. The Bulls will want to defend this pocket going forward. A break and close below could neutralize the friendly developments on the chart. Resistance: 97.525-97.85**, 100.375-100.825*** Support: 94.30-95.30***, 92.50** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:HE1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Lean Hogs Continue to Rally*Cold storage report will be out tomorrow afternoon Lean Hogs Technicals (August): Lean hog futures finally showed some more conviction in their recent breakout move above significant resistance from 111-112ish. This opens the door to a potential test of first resistance, 116.325. The more significant resistance comes in closer to 120. The RSI (at the bottom of the chart) is approaching its highest level since March, which is still below what would be considered “overbought”. Resistance: 116.325**, 120.30-121.25*** Pivot: 111.30-112.00 Support: 109.825-110.50***, 103.00-103.95***, 101.30-101.60**, 98.00-98.65**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:HE1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
1
Lean Hogs Trade at Their Highest Level in Months Lean Hogs Technicals (August): Lean hog futures “broke out” above the upper end of their range, trading to their highest price since April 29th. The higher trade lacked conviction and follow through, which is keeping our excitement mute. There’s now a gap below the market that we will need to keep an eye on. Previous resistance will now act as our pivot pocket, 111.30-112.00. A break back below here could take us to fill the gap near 109.825-110.50 Resistance: 116.325**, 120.30-121.25*** Pivot: 111.30-112.00 Support: 109.825-110.50***, 103.00-103.95***, 101.30-101.60**, 98.00-98.65**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:HE1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Will Hogs Breakout?Lean Hogs Commitment of Traders Update: Friday’s Updated CoT report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 11,450 futures/options contracts through July 12th This expands their net long position to 39,934 contracts. Technicals (August): August lean hog futures traded at the upper end of the two-month range last week. Resistance remains intact from 111.30-112.00. A break and close above this pocket, and there’s little significant resistance for several dollars. On the support side of things, 106.35-107.025 is the pocket the Bulls need to defend. Resistance: 111.30-112.00***, 116.325**, 120.30-121.25*** Pivot: 106.35-107.025 Support: 103.00-103.95***, 101.30-101.60**, 98.00-98.65**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:HE1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Lean Hogs Act as a Flight to Safety? Lean Hogs Technicals (August): It was a risk-off day in nearly every commodity yesterday, with the exception of lean hogs. Lean hog futures were able to rally up near the 50-day moving average which we’ve listed as first resistance. That finished yesterday’s session at 106.90. Just above that is trendline resistance from the March 31st high, that comes in near 107.50. If the Bulls can find enough follow-through today to chew through that resistance pocket, we could see an extension towards 110. Resistance: 106.90-107.50****, 110.075-110.225***, 111.30*** Pivot: 103.00-103.95 Support: 101.30-101.60**, 98.00-98.65**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:HEQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Lean Hogs Break Below the 200 Day Moving AverageLean Hogs Technicals (August): It was the last trading day of the month and quarter, which may have been the main catalyst for breaking lean hogs below what we have labeled a “MUST HOLD” support level, defined by the 200-day moving average and trendline support. This will now act as our pivot pocket, 103.00-103.95. Resistance: 108.125**, 109.45***, 110.075-110.225**, 111.30*** Pivot: 103.00-103.95 Support: 101.30-101.60**, 98.00-98.65**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:HEQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Lean Hogs Test "MUST HOLD" SupportLean Hogs The quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be out after the close. Estimates are: All hogs and pigs - 99.0% Breeding herd - 98.9% Market hogs - 99.0% Technicals (August): Lean hog futures broke lower yesterday, trading into 4-star support from 103.00-103.95. This pocket represents trendline support and the 200day moving average. A failure here could take futures back near or below 100.00. On the resistance side of things, there’s not a lot until the 50-day moving average, today that comes in at 108.125. Resistance: 108.125**, 109.45***, 110.075-110.225**, 111.30*** Support: 103.00-103.95****, 101.30-101.60**, 97.375-98.00**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:HEQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Lean Hogs Setting Up For A Bigger MoveLean Hogs Technicals (August): August lean hogs have been trapped between the 200-day moving average and 50 day moving average for a while now, but as those converge it could setup for a bigger directional move (instead of the choppy sideways trade that we’ve been stuck in for a month). First resistance comes in from 108.65-109.45. This pocket represents trendline resistance and the 50-day moving average. On the support side of things, 103.00-103.95 is the MUST HOLD area. This represents trendline support and the 200-day moving average. Resistance: 108.65-109.45***, 110.075-110.225**, 111.30*** Support: 103.00-103.95****, 101.30-101.60**, 97.375-98.00**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:HEQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Lean Hogs Catch Their Breath Lean Hogs Technicals (July): July lean hogs were able to breakout above trendline resistance and the 50-day moving average which led way to an extension to our next resistance level mentioned in yesterday’s report, we’ve defined that wide ranging pocket as 112.825-114.00. Previous resistance will now act as support, that comes in near 110.50-111.475. Resistance: 112.85-114.00****, 117.025-117.85** Pivot: 110.50-111.475 Support: 103.35-103.70****, 101.30-101.60**, 97.375-98.00**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:HEN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Lean Hogs on the Move Lean Hogs Technicals (July): July lean hogs were able to breakout above trendline resistance and the 50-day moving average which led way to an extension to our next resistance level mentioned in yesterday’s report, we’ve defined that wide ranging pocket as 112.825-114.00. Previous resistance will now act as support, that comes in near 110.50-111.475. Resistance: 112.85-114.00****, 117.025-117.85** Pivot: 110.50-111.475 Support: 103.35-103.70****, 101.30-101.60**, 97.375-98.00**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:HEN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Lean Hogs are at an Inflection PointCommitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 3,641 futures/options contracts through June 14th. This shrinks their net long position to 18,832 futures/options. Broken down that is 44,483 longs VS 25,651 shorts. Technicals (July): July lean hogs gaped higher on Friday but couldn’t get much else going after fizzling out against trendline resistance from the March 31st high and the 50-day moving average. If the Bulls can chew through this barrier, we could see futures attempt to breakout above the 100-day moving average and the June 2nd high, 112.825-114.00. Resistance: 110.50-111.625***, 114.00-114.825*** Pivot: 109.575-110.075 Support: 103.35-103.70****, 101.30-101.60**, 97.375-98.00**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:HEN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Lean Hogs Approach Techncial Resistance. Time to Breakout? Lean Hogs Technicals (July): July lean hogs were able to find follow-through momentum yesterday, inching closer to the pile of technical resistance. Trendline resistance from the March 31st highs and the 50-day moving average come in at 110.675, which comes right in line with the June 8th high. This will be a big hurdle for the Bulls to overcome. If they can, there's more roadblocks from 112.75 to 114.00. Resistance: 110.675-111.00****, 112.75***, 114.00-114.825*** Pivot: 106.75-107.00 Support: 103.35-103.70****, 101.30-101.60**, 97.375-98.00**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:HEN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Daily Lean Hog Technical and Fundamental Update (6.16.22)Lean Hogs Technicals (July): July lean hogs were all over the place today as the market attempts to find its footing. The close out above resistance from 106.75-107.75 is encouraging and could encourage additional buying to 110.775-11.625. This pocket represents the 50 day moving average and trendline resistance from March 31st high. The Bulls have their work cutout for them with plenty of hurdles to overcome just above that pocket. Resistance: 110.50-111.625***, 114.00-114.825*** Pivot: 106.75-107. Support: 103.35-103.70****, 101.30-101.60**, 97.375-98.00**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:HEN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Daily Lean Hog Technical and Fundamental Update (6.12.22) Lean Hogs Technicals (July): July lean hogs attempted to get out above technical resistance from 106.75-107.75 but failed to sustain the early momentum into the afternoon session. If the Bulls can chew through and close above this pocket, we would look for an extension towards the mountain of resistance from about 111.00-112.70. This pocket includes trendline resistance from the March 31st highs, the 50 and 100 day moving average, and other previously important price points. On the support side, 103.35-103.70 is the pocket the Bulls must defend. Resistance: 106.75-107.75*** 110.50-111.625***, 114.00-114.825*** Support: 103.35-103.70****, 101.30-101.60**, 97.375-98.00**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:HEN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Lean Hogs Defend Significant Support.....AGAIN Lean Hogs Technicals (July): Our "MUST HOLD" support pocket held again yesterday which was a silver lining, but I'm sure the Bulls would rather stop testing it. That pocket remains intact from 103.35-103.70. A failure here could take us back to fill the tiny gap left from May 16th, and potentially lower. On the resistance side of things, there are multiple hurdles for the Bulls. The first hurdle comes in right near where the market closed, 106.75-107.75. A close back above this pocket could help spark some buying interest which could take us back near the 50 and 100 day moving average, which coincides with trendline resistance from the March 31st high. Resistance: 106.75-107.75*** 110.50-111.625***, 114.00-114.825*** Support: 103.35-103.70****, 101.30-101.60**, 97.375-98.00**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:HEN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Lean Hogs Test the Last Line of Defense Lean Hogs Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 4,335 futures/options contracts, through June 7th. This expands their net long position to 21,630. Broken down, that is 46,526 longs VS 24,896 shorts. Technicals (July): July lean hogs were able to stabilize on Friday after defending MUST HOLD support on Thursday. That pocket remains intact from 103.35-103.70. A failure here could take us back to fill the tiny gap left from May 16th, and potentially lower. On the resistance side of things, there are multiple hurdles for the Bulls. The first comes in from 106.75-107.75. A close back above this pocket could help spark some buying interest which could take us back near the 50 and 100 day moving average, which coincides with trendline resistance from the March 31st high. Resistance: 106.75-107.75*** 110.50-111.625***, 114.00-114.825*** Support: 103.35-103.70****, 101.30-101.60**, 97.375-98.00**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:HEN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Will Lean Hogs Breakout Above Key Moving Averages?Lean Hogs Technicals (July): July lean hog futures peeled back yesterday, trading near the low end of last week’s range. 106.65-106.975 is the support pocket that the Bulls need to defend to prevent a bigger technical pullback. On the resistance side of things, the 100-day moving average has been a brick wall, that comes in at 112.35, today. Resistance: 114.175-114.825***, 120.325-121.075*** Pivot: 111.975 Support: 108.70**, 106.65-106.975***, 103.35-103.70**
CME:HEN2022Long
by OliverSloup_BlueLine