$BTC CME Futures Gap - Market Makers Flash Crash to FillI don't think I've ever seen market makers try to fill a CME Gap this fast in the history of CRYPTOCAP:BTC Futures.
I wonder WHY they want to fill it so fast 🧐
HODL ✊
MBT1! trade ideas
BTC CMEThe CME gap at 93k has been filled,but due to the announcement on sunday, wall street and CME bears got wrecked as TradFi was closed.
CYCLE 4 | CME GAP: Bull Cycle Period First Major Pull Back?Quick post to address BTCs expected potential first major pull back into this bull run period...
BULL MARKET PULL BACKS
Historically, BTC during its bull market enjoys pull back which ranged from 15% to as much as 30%-40% in prior markets. This is essential for trader participants in the market to take profits, allow BTC to retest low levels and prove new heights are sustainable before ranging to new higher price levels.
The first pull back historically for BTC post the start of the 'Bull Run' phase of BTCs 4 year cycle is traditionally the largest pull back opportunity and historically been the best short term buying opportunity in the Bull Run (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE).
We can expect a 30-40% correction for this pull back based on historic bull market period examples (Let me know in the comments below if you would like me to detail consistent price behaviour during BTC bull run periods in a future post).
ARE WE AT THIS POINT NOW OF THE CYCLE? WHAT ARE THE INDICATORS SAYING?
As highlighted by the RED arrow on the chart, a number of the indicators like to monitor on the weekly chat are suggesting bearish divergences and fading momentum exists with the current price action. This is calling for a cooling off period of the market.
CME GAP
Historically, BTC has had a tendency to want to 'close' open gap, created by weekend trading of BTC that does not align with equities that follow the traditional 'No Trading' over the weekend policy of Traditional Financial instruments. Hence crypto ETFs which align with these policies (such as the CME Futures chart as seen in this chart) can create 'GAP' between the open (Monday) and close (Friday) candles.
To understand CME gaps, please take the time to review the details discussion in the earlier post.
The orange BOX shows the below CME gap target that BTC price may range towards to close.
NOTE: this box has been listed as Partially Closed as the open Monday candle of the gap did go below before rising during the weekly candle but did no dip past the close of the previous weekly candle.
21W EMA & 20W SMA
Historically, a fully developed healthy bull market for BTC has required periodic retesting and holding of these moving averages. A close of the CME gap at this point of the market would also satisfy this historic trend for BTC.
ORANGE TREND LINE
Bears if eager to continue the 'close the CME gap' trend will need to convince the market by first exceeding the orange trend line. Currently this allows BTC to complete a 10 to 12% correction while also taking the price below the key psychological 100K price level, without phasing the bulls conviction to charger higher.
* Holding the Orange Trend Line Scenario: we want to see price bounce and conviction from the bulls to push BTC to higher highs. The goal for Bears would be to achieve the measured move up to 180K. This would most potentially shorted the bull run (time prospective) and potentially cap our ATH for this cycle early; creating a distribution zone similar to the 2021 cycle top.
* Breaking below the Orange Trend Line Scenario: If we break the Orange Trend Line then Bulls will concede ground to the MA levels (allowing the CME gap to also close). Bulls will write this off as a market reset and holding support at these levels will entice Traders to take positions needed to drive BTC up sustainably to the next higher level(s).
Losing the MAs would ask serious questions to the intent of BULLs and the sustainability of the market moving forward this bull run.....
BTC1!Largest CME gap up ever. Interesting to see it open above 2/24 93,990 gap, and now backtest it from above to fill. Let's see if it can turn 93,990 into support now. Confluence with mid of yearly range...
"Bitcoin Filled the CME Gap – What’s Next?🚨 Boom! Bitcoin just did EXACTLY what
I predicted.
📌 The CME Gap at $92,695 - $93,790 is now completely filled!
📊 In My previous analysis, I highlighted the possibility of Bitcoin pushing towards this key level due to liquidity engineering. Now that the gap has been filled, the BIG question remains:
⚠️ Was this just a liquidity grab, or is Bitcoin gearing up for a massive breakout?
🔸 Scenario 1 - Bullish Continuation:
If BTC holds above $94K, we could see a push towards GETTEX:98K - $102K in the coming days.
Whales accumulating above this level could indicate further upside momentum.
🔹 Scenario 2 - Reversal & Liquidity Trap:
If BTC fails to hold above this level and starts closing below GETTEX:92K , this could be a classic fake breakout before another drop towards FWB:88K for a deeper retest.
💰 Key Levels to Watch:
🔹 Resistance: $94K | GETTEX:98K | $102K
🔸 Support: GETTEX:92K | FWB:88K | $84K
👀 Next Move:
A clear 4H or Daily close above $94K could confirm a continuation higher.
A rejection and close below GETTEX:92K might indicate a potential reversal.
📌 This was exactly what I predicted in My last analysis. If you missed it, check it out here:
🔗 Previous Analysis: Bitcoin Another Drop or the Biggest Market Trap?
🔥 This is a CRITICAL moment for Bitcoin. Are we about to see a true breakout, or was this just a perfectly engineered liquidity grab? Drop your thoughts below! 🚀👇
#Bitcoin #BTCUSD #Crypto #MarketManipulation #WhaleGames #Trading #LiquidityTrap #CMEGaps #CryptoBreakout #PriceAction
BTC Finally Up From Here? Bitcoin has faced significant headwinds recently, experiencing a nearly 30% decline from its all-time high, instilling widespread fear and uncertainty across the market. With the Fear and Greed Index plummeting to its lowest level in the past year, the key question arises: are we approaching a pivotal inflection point, or is this the beginning of the end for the current bull cycle?
There are several compelling reasons to believe that the uptrend may persist from this juncture:
Market Structure & Elliott Wave Analysis
The prevailing market structure suggests a higher probability of a corrective phase rather than a definitive trend reversal. Historically, corrective movements tend to retrace back to their origin, implying a potential rotation toward previous highs. Furthermore, Elliott Wave theory identifies Fibonacci extension levels as key termination zones for corrections, with the most common being the 1.0x and 1.618x extensions. Notably, Bitcoin has precisely touched the 1.618 extension, reinforcing the possibility of a structural rebound.
CME Gap & Liquidity Injection
A critical CME gap has now been filled, which could catalyze fresh liquidity inflows from sidelined capital. This is further evidenced by the formation of a substantial buyer wick on the daily candle, suggesting renewed interest and accumulation at these levels.
Anchored VWAP & Market Strength
The anchored VWAP from the August range low—marking the inception of Bitcoin’s 100% upward move—appears to be in the process of reclamation. If successfully held, this could signal a significant resurgence in market strength, providing a solid foundation for further upside momentum.
Should Bitcoin manage to reclaim its all-time high heading into the summer months, it could pave the way for an extended bullish continuation. However, as always, only time will reveal the ultimate trajectory.
BTC will fill CME GAP at around 77KWe're seeing some wild swings in Bitcoin's price, and I'm calling it: this isn't just the market doing its thing. I mean, where's all the BTC on exchanges? It's like there's none left, and the prices are shooting up to levels that Wall Street boys would think twice about jumping into.
This smells like big-time manipulation by the heavy hitters, like those hedge fund giants and the exchanges themselves. They've got the power to make the market dance, and with so little Bitcoin floating around, every move they make has an outsized impact. It's like they're playing with a loaded deck.
I'm not saying I've got the smoking gun, but the signs are there. When you see prices that don't match the supply, you gotta wonder, right? Are we just pawns in their game, or is there something else at play?
Let's keep our eyes peeled, because if this is manipulation, it's on a whole new level. What do you guys think? Am I onto something, or am I just seeing shadows?
Remember, this is speculative based on what we're observing in the market, and while manipulation is a concern, it's one among many factors influencing crypto prices.
Whats your thouhts?
Either this is dip or we are in bear marketCRYPTOCAP:BTC CME gap is nearly filled (ends at 77,930, bounced at 78,675). It also tested the 10-month MA (76K). Monthly RSI is at support, similar to August 2024, when price surged from 49K to 110K. There are several indicators tested such as distance to 50 day moving average as well as 200 day moving average current price. As long as it holds above 75-76K, the bull market remains intact.
BTC 160K in JulySimple fractal from last year summer doldrums on the the BTC chart.
Once we corrected to the 200 SMA (current spot) , a 2 month bottom consolidation followed and after 2 months, BTC reached all time high. That is my thesis going forward and it bodes well with the US new administration typical down turn within the first 100 days of taking office. Fed still tightening, rates still high, etc
Congruent also with a shift to an increase in global liquidity and lower rates incoming towards the summer, as the US economy is now showing obvious signs of weakness.
My 2 cents.
Btc cme gapBeen waiting for the Cme futures gap to be filled.For those who follow cme gaps know that they always get filled and price bounces from there. Also ma200 is below the gap which is a very good support and price should bounce from the ma200 lets see what happens 👀🚀
General Market Analysis - SMC Point of ViewIn this video I go through an analysis of DXY, EURUSD, USDCHF, OIL, and BTC. I also delve into why I think some short-term manipulation is happening and share my narrative.
I am not fond of giving a long description here when I give my analysis in the video, so please enjoy and share your thoughts.
- R2F Trading
BITCOIN CME FORCASTIf CRYPTOCAP:BTC Dropped 🐻 Below $80k then Expect a good Bounce from $78k.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC Buy 🦖 Limit Orders
● $80500
● $78k
Bitcoin Futures in Freefall !!Bitcoin Futures in Freefall: Navigating the Stormy Crypto Seas
As of February 27, 2025, Bitcoin futures have been experiencing significant volatility, reflecting the broader trends in the cryptocurrency market. The current price of Bitcoin futures on the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) is approximately $84,945, which represents a notable decline from recent highs.
Market Overview
The cryptocurrency market has been under pressure due to a combination of factors, including regulatory uncertainties, macroeconomic conditions, and market sentiment. Bitcoin, being the flagship cryptocurrency, often sets the tone for the entire market. The recent drop in Bitcoin futures prices can be attributed to several key factors:
Regulatory Concerns: Governments and regulatory bodies worldwide have been tightening their stance on cryptocurrencies. This has led to increased scrutiny and potential regulatory actions, causing uncertainty among investors.
Macroeconomic Factors: The global economic environment, including inflation concerns and interest rate hikes, has impacted risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Investors are becoming more cautious, leading to reduced demand for Bitcoin futures.
Market Sentiment: The overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has been bearish, with many investors adopting a risk-off approach. This has resulted in increased selling pressure and lower prices for Bitcoin futures.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin futures have broken several key support levels, indicating a bearish trend. The price has entered a fair value gap (FVG) and is approaching an order block (OB), which could act as a support level. If the price finds support at the order block, there could be a potential reversal or consolidation before any further movement. However, if the price breaks below the order block, it could indicate further downside potential.
Future Outlook
The future outlook for Bitcoin futures remains uncertain, with several potential scenarios:
Regulatory Clarity: If regulatory bodies provide clear guidelines and frameworks for cryptocurrencies, it could boost investor confidence and lead to a recovery in Bitcoin futures prices.
Macroeconomic Stability: Improvements in the global economic environment, such as controlled inflation and stable interest rates, could positively impact risk assets, including Bitcoin futures.
Market Sentiment Shift: A shift in market sentiment towards a more bullish outlook could lead to increased demand for Bitcoin futures and higher prices.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the current situation with Bitcoin futures is characterized by significant volatility and uncertainty. Investors should closely monitor regulatory developments, macroeconomic conditions, and market sentiment to make informed decisions. While the short-term outlook may be bearish, there are potential catalysts that could lead to a recovery in the future.
BTCUSDT Futures Pick your poison! So long as 84.5k holds I believe we back test the upper CME gap at 93.6k to reject and fill the lower gap. With that being said I believe we head lowerhave short TP's set at 72, 68 and 62k. This matches my usdt.d analysis over the past few weeks since 107k
CME GapBitcoin is on its rally to fill the old big CME GAP. But on its way it created a new one at 93.000
Lets hope that this one gets filled quickly
Lord MEDZ Trading Update: BitcoinKey Observations:
Breach of the 60-Day Lookback Zone:
Price has fallen below the previously held demand zone, confirming seller dominance.
This breakdown increases the probability of a deeper retracement toward key Fibonacci and smart money interest levels.
Potential Demand Zones & Fibonacci Levels:
$82,280 - $75,355: This is the first major support area (0.5-0.618 retracement), where we may see a reaction.
$75,000 - $67,500: If weakness persists, price could fill the deeper liquidity void toward the 0.75 retracement level.
Final Support: $57,205 - $54,640: This remains the ultimate level where a full mean reversion move could play out.
Liquidity Hunt & Smart Money Context:
The market is likely sweeping liquidity, trapping late longs before a potential reversal.
Order blocks and imbalance zones suggest that institutional players could step in at lower levels.
Bearish Case: Deeper Drop Incoming?
If GETTEX:82K fails, a move to $75K or even FWB:67K is likely.
Further breakdowns could lead to a full sweep into the $57K region, which aligns with historical liquidity pools.
Bullish Reversal Scenario
If buyers aggressively defend GETTEX:82K -$75K, we could see a strong rebound back toward $90K+.
Any reclaim above the 60-day lookback level (~$90K- GETTEX:92K ) would invalidate the bearish breakdown.
Trading Plan:
Short-term: Watching price action around GETTEX:82K -$75K for a reaction.
Medium-term: If weakness persists, looking for deeper buy opportunities closer to $75K-$67K.
Invalidation: A strong daily close below $75K increases the likelihood of a drop to $57K.
Final Note: The breakdown below the 60-day lookback is a crucial shift in market sentiment. Patience is key—let the liquidity do its job before making aggressive moves.
Stay sharp & trade smart!
– Lord MEDZ
BTS Heading to 74K or Is It Just a Shakeout?Not a pretty picture, is it? I hope it's just a shakeout of weak hands and not truly a breakdown.
The price has clearly closed below significant lows. Only saving grace is that the yesterday low is around 38.2% retracement of the rise from lows of August 2024 (sub 50K level).
Let's hope it reverses for good from here. If not, it's not just #BTC that will fall but majority of cryptos with it.
BTC update#BTC has 2 gaps in CME chart so these 2 should be filled i think that there is 2 scenarios once is rising to catch the small gap and then go down and the other one is go down to catch the big one and then rise to catch the other one !
any way we have to think for bearish in long term and in both scenarios the price will fall under 80K
BTC Mid-Term OutlookBitcoin is struggling to find bullish confluence, and we’re not seeing strong buy pressure at current levels. The nearest significant order blocks are much lower, around $69K, which could act as a magnet if sellers take control.
Adding to the uncertainty, potential tariffs from Trump could shake up the broader market, impacting risk assets like BTC in the short term. Without a strong push from bulls soon, the market will drift lower before any meaningful reversal.
BTC start buying in the green zone been waiting Start Buying when price isn the green zone simple plan
BTC CME MMBM is over If we use data like Market Maker for the purchase, then perhaps we have completed it, now MMSM has worked
We see that December was aсamulation, January - manipulation and February - distribution with the completion and withdrawal of monthly liquidity for January, now we are in the zone of immediate inefficiency, 82-88k + emptiness at 77-80k
I will consider NWOG for 23 feb as resistance and a search for a short entry if the price goes there due to weekly inefficiency
