PRK1! trade ideas
Lean Hogs 3 DrivesDecember Lean Hog maybe moving into a 3 drives pattern. RSI trend is up and hasn't been broken. Hog index is now at 60.92. We may see sideways trading now until a definite direction is decided. Watching for trendlines to fail top or bottom. New pivots will be formed middle of next week producing a small range of resistance and support.
February Hogs Bat / ButterflyFeb Hogs looks like it is creating a bearish Bat. RSI is nearing top level of previous climb. Thursday's downside held at 20 day MA and now we are above that. Next upside target for Hogs is 67.15 at R1, then 68 at Bat with a possible run at triple top at 68.875. Pivots should remain similar for this next round. Volume bars are low so this could be a nice run. Hog index for December is falling so all these combined could be a great setup for a bearish fall at top. There is a significant overhead at R1 looking back a few months that will challenge hogs. Two new slaughter houses haven't got up to peak production yet, but even so, where are the buyers for pig?
Hogs BearishDecember hogs show signs of falling again. A recovery bounce has deflated. New pivots have been created and a possible fall to double bottom or beyond could be possible. Upside target if it can muster this is at pivot at 59.675. Downside target more likely at 56.025 - S1. New possible setup is a bearish Cypher. CME Hog index has been falling steadily for the past 2 weeks.
Hogs gearing for a moveThis bounced off the parallel after failing at the horizontal support. However price then failed to move back above that support today. Tomorrow if it fails to retake it this will be a short, however if it moves above then we have a good looking long.
Lean Hogs Bullish GartleyAlthough the Lean Hogs moved higher than 88.6 at the C position, it is still within reason calling this a Bullish Gartley pattern. Hogs went to doji today. Looking for rebound starting between the S2 and S3. Hogs could dig down deeper to 57.5. RSI is overbought but could still see some more downside. Waiting for a surge solid up bar for buy.
Lean Hogs - how much bearishness left in the tank?I called the 'seasonality' correction last week as I was presenting for the Society of Technical Analysts at their annual Summer party & awards evening! A day or so after my presentation and a massive one day 25% correction! The Lean Hogs seasonality play is one of my annual favourites! The question is this year - has it got any southerly legs left after that sizable move last week? Sitting and consolidating on Fibonacci resistance at late 66's looking for a further break from here to possibly target 60 then lows around 40's. If it happens it normally moves fast, which can be one of the frustrating things with this trade but looks to have some gas left in the tank. Upside support at late 72's then mid 81's if it hasn't!
August Lean Hog August Lean Hog has created a bearish flag today. Looking for fall through pivot at 81.7 and then to 79.825 which is a major support area for hogs tracing back to Feb 21, 2017. S1 may become a support area to another run up. If Pivot holds uptrend may form for possible double top. Hog index is still rising. This is still a bullish market. Initial Bullish butterfly is a possible pattern.
October Hogs is also looking bearish for the moment. Looking to see if pivot holds or further downward movement.
Lean hogs at the high of the yearWaiting for the peak for a while - although the pork associations and sponsored publications are claiming that we'll have a long rally - I don't believe that.
For the rest of the year should concentrate on shorts.
December Lean HogsHogs completed the Gartley and fell off and hit the uptrend line. Looking for mixed trading Friday and then possible continued selling or a pause and then a reversal up. Initial support comes in at 61.150. Hogs still seem very bullish.
December Lean HogDecember Lean Hog is building out a Bearish Gartley pattern. Resistance comes in at 63.150. It came close to here a couple of times and looks like it wants to try again. If broken upside target is around 63.775. Big time resistance coming in at 64.250. If bulls can break this and stay above it, could be seen as another significant uptrend.
Lean Hog Futures - Inverse Head and ShouldersThe foundation is in place for a potential inverse head and shoulder pattern.
Ideally price penetrates the neckline/.5 yearly fib to take out that June 2016 high (89.90) before selling off to close below this area with some sort of deceleration/reversal candle. This would form a higher high that could then send us down to form a right shoulder near that major trend line around 60.00...
Opportunities I see:
1. I'm looking to short a nice high at the neckline area and then ride that into the formation of the right shoulder near 60.00
2. I'll then go long on a nice low that established the right shoulder and ride that to the upside (ideal target is yearly .786 fib @ 113.73)
October Lean HogOctober Lean Hog has completed a Bearish Cypher pattern and a double top sell formation. Hogs have to cross 66.925 and stay below to make this a full on trend. This would also put it under the 20 day moving average. 65.250 is target after 66.925 break.
Lean Hogs running out of GasLean Hogs has climbed a little higher today. Still has a little more RSI to go, and wouldn't be surprised for a run to double top. Would could be witnessing an elliot wave here.
Lean Hogs Bottomed OutJune Lean Hogs rose today off oversold conditions and a bullish Butterfly Pattern. Next upside target 71.375, and then 72.825 to start forming a projected Bearish Cypher pattern.
Lean Hog on 5th Elliot WaveJuly Lean Hog is on it's fifth ellliot wave position hopefully filling out the last part of the bullish butterfly. Next downside target triple bottom 72.4
Lean Hogs Bullish ButterflyJuly Lean Hogs had a couple of days of craziness and seems to have settled down a little after H&S fall. It has met the 74.225 H&S target, and crashed through that today. Left a good strong bar down. Next downside target at 72.45, and double bottom at 67. New setup is a bullish butterfly.
Lean Hogs Fell on H&SJuly Lean Hogs fell off of H&S today and crossed neckline signalling possible follow through to 74.225 which would be the height of the neckline to top of head where support comes. Hogs needs to break and stay under 76 for confirmation.
