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E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Mar 2024)E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Mar 2024)E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Mar 2024)

E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Mar 2024)

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ESH2024 trade ideas

The Trump Pump and DumpMarkets across several asset classes have seen a large move to the upside, following the confirmation of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. We have seen a massive volume injection sending stocks soaring within the 45 days following, with many companies gaining 50% and more on average in a short period of time. At the moment, we have been trading in largely oversold territories, while declining in overall volume. Additionally, the notorious Santa clause rally was cut short, as market participants were hoping for a rally into the end of the year, which unfortunately ended with a sell off after the federal reserve rate cut in mid December. Several stats do point to a negative quarter when we do not see a strong end to the previous year. Although market crashes are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, often unpredictable and interdependent. Here are some plausible reasons why a market pullback could occur in January 2025: Economic Data Disappointments: Unexpectedly high inflation, slowing economic growth, or poor employment reports could signal an economic downturn. Federal Reserve Policy: A sudden or unexpected interest rate hike, or minimal rate cuts to stimulate the economy by the Federal Reserve might spook investors, leading to a sell-off. Geopolitical Tensions: Escalation of conflicts or political instability in key regions could disrupt global supply chains or create uncertainty in markets. Corporate Earnings Misses: Weak earnings reports from major corporations, especially tech giants, could shake investor confidence. Debt Concerns: A significant default, either by a major corporation or a government, could create ripple effects across global markets. Tech Sector Weakness: Overvalued tech companies could face corrections, dragging down indices where they hold significant weight. Systemic Financial Risks: A failure of a major financial institution could undermine trust in the financial system. End of Year Tax Selling or Portfolio Rebalancing: Excessive tax-loss harvesting or portfolio adjustments in late 2024 could lead to low liquidity and amplified volatility in January. Global Health Crisis: Renewed concerns about pandemics or other health emergencies might impact investor sentiment and economic activity. All in all, to visualize strength in the market I would like to see the SP500 trade above the 600 level on the SPY , or 6000 on Futures. Until then, the risk of downside does seem very real to move into the gap formed by the market just below 5700 on the ES futures, which could be a critical turning point in the market. Only time will tell..
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by afurs1
2
ES meets January Elliot Wave CorrectionAn Elliott Wave combination correction is a complex corrective pattern in Elliott Wave Theory, typically formed when simpler corrective patterns combine to create a larger, more intricate structure. It consists of two or three corrective waves labeled W, X, Y. Combination corrections aim to extend and complicate the corrective phase, often seen in sideways or consolidative price action. They provide a way for markets to consume time and create balance before resuming the primary trend. Key Characteristics: The larger trend of the correction labelled as W,X,Y consists of 3 corrective wave structures being 1 flat, and 2 following zigzag structures. Each major corrective structure ends with a 3 wave impulse move to the downside, followed by a 2 wave corrective structure before resuming the trend. You can see more detail on EW theory related to elliot wave combination structures on the website: www.elliottwave.com What catches my attention for this up coming week is a potential end to the corrective structure on the ES (SP500 Futures), erasing all the markets gains made from Nov 5, 2024 onward. It would be an interesting location to look for potential long trades in the market.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by afurs1
ES - bearish setup The overnight push up was shaped as abearish ascending flag Watch the 50% retracement of the Monday decline = 6,036.25 Remember, 6,032.25 is the Weekly resistance Bears have a setup to drive ES down to 5,987 with possible extension down to 5,972 I would not be surprised to see first a fake breakout of that flag tagging 6,036, the 50% retracement then brutal bearish reversal followed by a break under the lower blue trend line A failed breakout is the best trigger / catalyst of a bearish leg to a lower low The key level of support for this morning is 6,007
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by CastAwayTrader
S&P 500 struggles at the 1/4 Warning LineLet's not make trading harder than it is. All we can do is project - or read the Coffee ground. I'll prefer to use my projections with the Medianlines, using the Fork as my main tool. The nice part with this is, that I can relay on a proven framework with rules. Adding some risk & money management to it and the soup is ready to enjoy. So, I follow the same process with the ES. I see that price got rejected at the 1/4 line of the WL (Warning Line), and that price missed it to reach the WL1, which is a HAGOPIAN. That makes me lean on the rule, that price will go farther in the opposite direction than from where price came from (U-MLH). I outlined the scenarios with the arrows what to expect in the next weeks. Personally I'm overall very, very bearish, and I see the move to the Centerline coming. But this is just my opinion.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
1
ES Futures Trade Idea- NFP Week Big Picture ES Futures: ES Futures are trading above yearly and monthly open at 5,949.25. On the weekly time-frame, we see the inside week on December 23, 2024. This was broken to the downside last week, and it closed back in prior week’s range. However, it is still inside of the FOMC December 2024 week. Sellers have failed to push lower and buyers have been stepping in around 5,875 and 5,850 levels. Looking at Volume Profile since 2024, we note that price is staying above Composite Value Area High. Acceptance of higher prices can be noted at yearly open level where high volume node (HVN) is visible and 6,150 level where another high volume node (HVN) is visible. All time highs are not far off. This week features a busy calendar with major events, including the NFP jobs report and a shortened trading day on January 9th in honor of President Carter. Key Levels: Yearly Open | LIS (Line in Sand): 5,949.25 CVAH: 5,854.25 Neutral Zone: 6,035 - 6,050 Key Support 1: 5,854.25 - 5,864.25 Resistance R1: 6,105 - 6,115 Resistance R2: 6,145 - 6,155 All time highs: 6,184.50 Scenario 1: New All Time Highs ES consolidates above neutral to test R1. Break above R1, will open a path towards testing All time highs this month. Scenario 2: Deeper Pullback Any push from sellers that takes prices below CVAH/Key Support 1 will create further downside pressure to test 5,800 and 5,750 bull supports.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
SP500: Watch This Key Support LevelStrong US jobs data was released today at 14:30 CET, showing 256K new jobs versus the expected 164K, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. This stronger-than-expected data could lead to more risk-off sentiment, as 97% of speculators now believe the Fed will hold rates steady at its next meeting. As a result, with stocks pulling back and the USD strengthening, even cryptocurrencies could face more weakness. Remember, Powell delivered a hawkish cut back in December, when they noted that there can be less cuts in 2025 due to strong economic projections for 2025 which can bring infaltion back up so they must be carefull with rate decision. And this data today is reason why FED may stay on old, rahter than cut and why then stocks can resume even low, which have been in corrective territory since the last Fed meeting in December.The key focus now is identifying the next major support level for stocks. I believe that once stocks turn back to the upside, it could open opportunities across other assets, including cryptocurrencies. Looking at the S&P 500 futures contract, there has been a slow but steady recovery since early November, following Trump’s win in the US elections. However, the market may attempt to liquidate latecomers who joined the stock rally after Trump’s victory. The 5,700 level on the SP500 futures stands out as a critical support zone, acting as a “stop-loss” level for many positioned in the well-known “Trump trade.” If the price reaches this area, more liquidations could occur, potentially clearing the way for a stronger bounce. Markets rarely move straight up that will profit everyone; liquidations often happen on the way higher. There is no easy money. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the sharp drop from all-time highs looks like an incomplete correction. The current sideways movement likely forms wave B, suggesting that wave C could lead to more liquidations toward the 5,800 level, which I see as a very important support zone.If this is indeed is a triangle in wave B, keep in mind that moves out of triangles are final in the sequence, meaning any drop could be limited before the market turns higher. So, I still believe risk-on sentiment will return, but this may not happen until Trump officially returns to office and market positioning settles for 2025. Regarding Bitcoin, I see the 85,000–87,000 area as a very interesting support zone, where more downside could be limited. Grega
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by ew-forecast
Strategy Winter — Spring 2025. S&P500 Index Choking DiagonalUS markets were shacked on Friday, January 10th, after the December NFP jobs report came in much stronger than expected. The US economy added 256,000 jobs in December, well above the average economist estimate of 155,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in November, although it remains above its 6-month simple moving average. The Nasdaq-100 immediately fell about 1%, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note jumped nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, its highest since October 2023. The strong payrolls report further strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve not to cut interest rates again until at least 2025. The move in stocks and bonds is a continuation of what has been happening in recent weeks: After a period of mega-euphoric optimism, investors have begun to expect higher inflation driven by President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed trade and fiscal policies. If bond yields continue to rise, Americans will feel the brunt of it. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets now expect just one rate cut of 25 basis points this year, down from as many as three at the end of last year. The odds of no rate cuts in 2025 more than doubled to 28% on Friday morning. The dollar index TVC:DXY skyrocketed to the Moon, while the yield on 10-year U.S. sovereign bonds TVC:TNX stays well above 4.5%. Endogenously, the market has been preparing for such turbulence for a long time, as discussed in the previously published idea “Strategy 2025. BTC Airless Scenario Below $100'000 Choking Point” . I have to remind that the financial market had tough weeks in December 2024, but it could also face a tough year in 2025, as I noted then. The market was on track for its worst weeks in years after the Federal Reserve gave a hawkish forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025. But looking at the market internals, it was clear that the damage had been done well before the December Fed meeting – and this signal was a historical indicator of tough times ahead. Thus, Dow Jones Futures CBOT_MINI:YM1! ended 2024 with the 3rd RED WEEK in a row, forming the Bearish Candlestick Pattern "Three Black Crows" on the weekly timeframe, which developed, remarkably, from the all-time highs of the Dow Jones index. Last week, Dow Jones Futures ended with the 6th RED WEEK in a row - and this is a rather rare event. Historical backtest analysis over the past 25 years shows that this can lead to a further (at least) 10-percent drop for the Top-30 stock club. Bulls have done a lot of work, advanced more than 2,000 points in 2023-24, for the S&P500 index. However they were unable to finalize their achievements confidently above the round 6-thousand mark by the end of 2024. By the way, the same inability in Bitcoin to finalize 2024 above the round 100,000 mark is now repeatedly throwing the market back to lower price marks, as discussed in the recently published idea. The main technical chart indicates a suffocating bearish diagonal in development for the S&P500 index, with targets for decline down to 5'250 points.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Pandorra
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 1.12 - 1.17.2025Last Week : Sunday Globex opened inside the Mean of Previous HTF Range and got a push to VAH which held into RTH that brought in more buying to make a run at the Ranges Edge where we found Supply, for strength to remain we needed to stay and build over VAH instead we build supply at/under VAH and when buying ran out we made a move for VAL. From weekly plan this is what we were looking for a push back under 978 - 73 Intraday Edge to give us sells back towards the Edge where we saw covering and support which gave us holds for a couple days but over all we were ablet to stay under VAL and build supply which kept signaling weakness, Friday we built up enough supply to fully break through the Edge and this time around with more supply above us we had enough selling to get into new Value. Area over swing stops provided good covering which gave us a push back out of Value but we can see that selling was strong enough to get back into the Mean area of the Range to close just above those stops. This Week : This week we are set up open inside the Value of new/previous HTF Range of 913 - 792, We are inside 882 - 841 Intraday Range, Under the Daily Mean of 913 - 896 with now more supply trapped over it. The area where and way we closed Friday is signaling that we should see continuation to the current move or at least more weakness going into this week, as long as we hold under VAH under 5888 - 5900 we can continue with weakness towards current Intraday Edge lows at 841 - 36 which would also take out the swing swing stops under us to give us more selling to test lower VAL and possibly see sells under it towards Previous Distribution Balance we had which was a big cost basis area above Daily Edge that we consolidated at for some time before making new ATH 10.14. To me this was our real ATH and possibly a top area as everything after that was more of Election Speculations and Momentum which died out and now brough us back under that ATH. Also mentioned last week that we had a big failure over Daily Edge which usually targets previous daily areas and so far we have visited Daily Mean which Friday we finally broke and closed under and tagged Daily VAL which is this 846 - 828, Daily lower Edge is 754 - 24 which has some Poor/Weak Lows and a contract roll gap under. Daily Edge and Gap under will still remain good targets going forward but need be careful as those are Daily targets and can take time for us to get there, current VAL and areas under it could provide good enough covering holds and new buying when prices hold to give us enough support to not continue for bigger targets right away but instead balance and build more supply which we will need to go and fill those areas out when we are ready. Over all we are looking for more weakness going into this week but we have to be careful as we have that Previous Distribution balance at 800 - 750 area which had 2 weeks of consolidation that can keep us up and see covering at or over it. For bigger moves out of this HTF Range we would either need to hold and build supply under VAL before taking out the Edge like we did last week above or we would need strong volume that can break VAL and another strong push that can fully break lower Edge to hold under 780 - 70s, until then we may stay inside new current HTF Range and balance around its Value and areas out of Value without accepting under/over Edges. For strength to return or to think higher prices out of this Range we would need to be able to hold over VAH and see a good push in above Edge that could hold inside it without coming back in, until then Higher Time Frames have been transitioning into a correction mode so far Daily is in correction as long as we keep holding under 960s and Weekly as well showing signs of corrections starting but it still needs time to set up which can take time so we have to be patient especially after big moves already taking place.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Combined US Equities - Critical Support Line BROKEN DOWNJust yesterday, the line was drawn and by the close of the day/week, it was done... the line broke with a close below. So, zooming out into the weekly charts, and we see the TD Sequential starts for a Buy Setup (means bullish till end of Setup). Projecting a simple waterfall scenario brings US equities down to target at the TDST, and meeting a confluence of several support levels. Noted MACD crossed down as is RoVD tapering down too. This is the simplest straight line outcome. Alternatively, might see a weak bounce for a lower high on the weekly charts and then the cliff fall in mid- to end-February. Just need to know, then decide what to do. On a seperate note. The First 5 days of the trading week of January is part of the January Barometer where how January closes is how the year goes. and this ended DOWN. Now, if January is ending DOWN as well, then you decide how 2025 is ending most likely. Already obvious 2025 is challenging till September. Watch for it and be wary. All the best!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 1.05 - 1.10.25Last Week : Sunday Globex opened inside VAH of 6054 - 5933 HTF Range after a Friday failure over upper Edge. Failures over/under HTF Edges usually provide good reaction back to previous Value and Edges which is what we got to start the week as we got a move from VAH to VAL and pushed out to tag lower Edge but the whole move pretty much happened during pre market hours so when we opened up we didn't get continuation, instead we got balancing/covering with weakness since we had supply that was coming out from above, we balanced most of the week between the lower Edge and Value of the range until we built up enough supply to flush it through the Edge, the sell through was strong but we only had enough supply to tag lower VAH where buying came in to push us back inside the Edge. Since it was end of the week we expected more covering to be done, since the Edge held pre market without any more size selling that brought in more covering and momentum buying to push back into our current HTF Ranges Value to close the week. This Week: Last weeks close may seem strong but we have to keep in mind that currently our structure is going through a change on higher time frames, for now Daily is slowly transitioning into a possible longer correction after failing and building supply over the Daily Edge which was 640s - 70s area ( Remember Failures over Edges bring us back to Value AND could target previous Edges, since its daily it can take time to get there but Daily VAL is 846 - 28 and Daily lower Edge is 754 - 24) We are holding under Smaller and Bigger MAs and they are getting closer for a cross which will be signaling a correction lower, seems like this time around we are in for a longer/slower correction that can take time to play out and time to end. Last few weeks with failures over the Daily Edge we have been getting moves back to Daily Value and going back and forth between it's VAH and Mean areas with dips under the Mean that were bought. Daily VAH is around 987 - 67 Area and going into this week if we can't show stability over it by holding over/between 5993 - 6007 areas and get tests at/over above VAH then we would look for price to return under the VAH back inside 973 - 932 Intraday Range and possibly start holding under Daily VAH. Lower Edge 993 - 913 may provide enough support for us to continue balancing over it but we have to keep in mind that holding under current HTF Ranges VAL and building more supply at/over the Edge can bring in more weakness and if we get through Intraday area of 932 - 27 with more supply above that can give us sells towards lower VAH again and possibly this time around we can try to get inside lower Value again, we have swing stops to watch out for under 850s which if taken could provide more selling towards lower VAL and possibly moves out of it IF we will have enough supply. We do have that area of 800 - 750 and next Edge below us which was our distribution balance for some time at one point, so we have to watch out what we do that as we may hold above it or price may want to try and get inside it again as that is an area where it found balance before. Of course all of this we have to watch area by area for continuation as we may keep getting buying at and under current Edge but things are set up for these moves if we want to go at least for lower Value but we MUST take out key areas for any continuation as price may find balance around current Value and stay in this range if we are not ready to move yet. For price to remain stable we would need to be able to hold inside current Value without getting back under VAL that could keep us stable enough to balance inside the Value in current intraday range of 6018 - 78 which so far we haven't showed acceptance in, and for any strength beyond that we would need a strong push over above VAH and hold over it to start building new cost basis, even if we get moves to or over current VAH it's a place to be careful as we can keep seeing sells from there back inside Value.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
The reaction to the Supply Zone is the keyOn this chart, you can see that the topping signal and the formation of a fresh Supply Zone (highlighted in red) initially resulted in only a temporary shallow pullback. However, this pullback did not indicate a reversal of the uptrend. Instead, the market quickly resumed its upward momentum, as evidenced by the appearance of another "Buy re-test" signal shortly after. This is a great example of how a topping signal—which might typically indicate potential exhaustion—can sometimes act as merely a pause in a strong uptrending market, rather than leading to a significant reversal. The trend continued higher as buyers re-established control, with subsequent key supports holding firmly to reinforce bullish strength. Key takeaway: Topping signals and Supply Zones should be evaluated within the broader context of the market's trend. In this case, the bulls demonstrated sustained dominance despite the brief pause, confirming the uptrend's resilience.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CastAwayTrader