Neutral set upThe structure on Tuesday in the S&P 500 daily chart is neutral going into Wednesday's CPI numbers. This creates a 50-50 type structure but I think the bias is for move to the upside.
ESM2015 trade ideas
The Trump Pump and DumpMarkets across several asset classes have seen a large move to the upside, following the confirmation of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. We have seen a massive volume injection sending stocks soaring within the 45 days following, with many companies gaining 50% and more on average in a short period of time.
At the moment, we have been trading in largely oversold territories, while declining in overall volume. Additionally, the notorious Santa clause rally was cut short, as market participants were hoping for a rally into the end of the year, which unfortunately ended with a sell off after the federal reserve rate cut in mid December.
Several stats do point to a negative quarter when we do not see a strong end to the previous year.
Although market crashes are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, often unpredictable and interdependent. Here are some plausible reasons why a market pullback could occur in January 2025:
Economic Data Disappointments: Unexpectedly high inflation, slowing economic growth, or poor employment reports could signal an economic downturn.
Federal Reserve Policy: A sudden or unexpected interest rate hike, or minimal rate cuts to stimulate the economy by the Federal Reserve might spook investors, leading to a sell-off.
Geopolitical Tensions: Escalation of conflicts or political instability in key regions could disrupt global supply chains or create uncertainty in markets.
Corporate Earnings Misses: Weak earnings reports from major corporations, especially tech giants, could shake investor confidence.
Debt Concerns: A significant default, either by a major corporation or a government, could create ripple effects across global markets.
Tech Sector Weakness: Overvalued tech companies could face corrections, dragging down indices where they hold significant weight.
Systemic Financial Risks: A failure of a major financial institution could undermine trust in the financial system.
End of Year Tax Selling or Portfolio Rebalancing: Excessive tax-loss harvesting or portfolio adjustments in late 2024 could lead to low liquidity and amplified volatility in January.
Global Health Crisis: Renewed concerns about pandemics or other health emergencies might impact investor sentiment and economic activity.
All in all, to visualize strength in the market I would like to see the SP500 trade above the 600 level on the SPY , or 6000 on Futures.
Until then, the risk of downside does seem very real to move into the gap formed by the market just below 5700 on the ES futures, which could be a critical turning point in the market.
Only time will tell..
1/8 Daytrade idea1/8 ES plan updated. Anyone who’s been following can see we are back to extreme volatility, gone are the days of 10 point chops and now we can easily move 40+ points in a single 30 min candle. We are in a downtrend with what I described a few days ago as crash and squeeze, crash and squeeze. For today, the next selloff comes at the loss of yesterday’s low, which can take price below 5900. To get a squeeze, price will need to reclaim the 20dma first ~6020, from there it can easily make its way back to retest 6070. Bulls only take the ball if they manage to reclaim 6085. Until then safe to assume Short the pop is the theme with wide range squeeze and crash, and crash and squeeze. We could do very well with disciplined trades from major level to major level. Good luck!
Some of these markets are going lower 1.13.25 up the New York composite and some of the indexes are moving lower which we were expecting. even if you don't short markets you want to know where the buyers and the sellers are and protect long positions if you're long. if you don't short markets you want to start learning how to think like a seller because the big trades will be the short trades as the market moves lower even though the market will have some corrections that go higher first and then they continue going lower. up if you were following my analysis of the market use this as your time where you'll think like both sides of the market. it's not an automatic process especially if you don't think about where the markets will trade lower. most Traders never short. in the equity markets it's much more complicated because of the regulations to short markets and part of this has to do with the fact that your brokerage firm has to have inventory to loan to you if you want to Short and that's a major pain in the butt. in addition you have to pay for a short trade once you borrow that position from your broker and if you short the trade and it doesn't move you'll still be forced to pay for your position even when it doesn't move. you don't have these problems on the Futures markets unless Congress comes in and destroys the market as a trading vehicle as it has done in the past. when a democratic Administration tells you that they're going to make the market safer as they Institute new regulations to protect you will find that you won't be able to trade the market until things improve..... they hinder Trading. in the meantime they're going long and short and they're trading options making millions of dollars.there is a software out there that I think was developed for Vanguard and I think it's available for about $12,000 a year and it's predicated on the weakness of a stock and whether or not the management of a company is selling its shares and this usually happens before the market makes substantial moves lower. and the same thinking occurs when the management of a stock goes higher. the reason why it has no interest to me it's because I think like a scalper and I look for my entries based on where I think the buyers and the sellers are and I do it looking at Futures markets not Equity markets even though I can read in equity Market I just don't trade them.... and it's very important for me to be precise on my entry and that I will have a small stop and I don't care and I don't think about a company and its corporate CEO.
ES meets January Elliot Wave CorrectionAn Elliott Wave combination correction is a complex corrective pattern in Elliott Wave Theory, typically formed when simpler corrective patterns combine to create a larger, more intricate structure. It consists of two or three corrective waves labeled W, X, Y.
Combination corrections aim to extend and complicate the corrective phase, often seen in sideways or consolidative price action. They provide a way for markets to consume time and create balance before resuming the primary trend.
Key Characteristics:
The larger trend of the correction labelled as W,X,Y consists of 3 corrective wave structures being 1 flat, and 2 following zigzag structures.
Each major corrective structure ends with a 3 wave impulse move to the downside, followed by a 2 wave corrective structure before resuming the trend.
You can see more detail on EW theory related to elliot wave combination structures on the website: www.elliottwave.com
What catches my attention for this up coming week is a potential end to the corrective structure on the ES (SP500 Futures), erasing all the markets gains made from Nov 5, 2024 onward. It would be an interesting location to look for potential long trades in the market.
S&P 500 struggles at the 1/4 Warning LineLet's not make trading harder than it is.
All we can do is project - or read the Coffee ground.
I'll prefer to use my projections with the Medianlines, using the Fork as my main tool.
The nice part with this is, that I can relay on a proven framework with rules.
Adding some risk & money management to it and the soup is ready to enjoy.
So, I follow the same process with the ES.
I see that price got rejected at the 1/4 line of the WL (Warning Line), and that price missed it to reach the WL1, which is a HAGOPIAN. That makes me lean on the rule, that price will go farther in the opposite direction than from where price came from (U-MLH).
I outlined the scenarios with the arrows what to expect in the next weeks.
Personally I'm overall very, very bearish, and I see the move to the Centerline coming. But this is just my opinion.
ES morning update Jan 8thYesterday, after a pop to the 6045 target, 6004 emerged as the critical bull/bear battle line. Once it broke, a 70-point selloff followed—bears control while it stays below.
As of now:
• 5928 is support.
• 5935 must recover quickly for a push to 5965, then 5982.
• If 5928 fails, expect a selloff toward 5918, then 5900.
ES-mini: Very Bearish scenarioI can see a Very bearish micro scenario where the a-b-c up bounce off the Monday low will be shaped as the Running Flat structure
SP500: Watch This Key Support LevelStrong US jobs data was released today at 14:30 CET, showing 256K new jobs versus the expected 164K, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. This stronger-than-expected data could lead to more risk-off sentiment, as 97% of speculators now believe the Fed will hold rates steady at its next meeting. As a result, with stocks pulling back and the USD strengthening, even cryptocurrencies could face more weakness.
Remember, Powell delivered a hawkish cut back in December, when they noted that there can be less cuts in 2025 due to strong economic projections for 2025 which can bring infaltion back up so they must be carefull with rate decision. And this data today is reason why FED may stay on old, rahter than cut and why then stocks can resume even low, which have been in corrective territory since the last Fed meeting in December.The key focus now is identifying the next major support level for stocks. I believe that once stocks turn back to the upside, it could open opportunities across other assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Looking at the S&P 500 futures contract, there has been a slow but steady recovery since early November, following Trump’s win in the US elections. However, the market may attempt to liquidate latecomers who joined the stock rally after Trump’s victory. The 5,700 level on the SP500 futures stands out as a critical support zone, acting as a “stop-loss” level for many positioned in the well-known “Trump trade.” If the price reaches this area, more liquidations could occur, potentially clearing the way for a stronger bounce. Markets rarely move straight up that will profit everyone; liquidations often happen on the way higher. There is no easy money.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the sharp drop from all-time highs looks like an incomplete correction. The current sideways movement likely forms wave B, suggesting that wave C could lead to more liquidations toward the 5,800 level, which I see as a very important support zone.If this is indeed is a triangle in wave B, keep in mind that moves out of triangles are final in the sequence, meaning any drop could be limited before the market turns higher. So, I still believe risk-on sentiment will return, but this may not happen until Trump officially returns to office and market positioning settles for 2025.
Regarding Bitcoin, I see the 85,000–87,000 area as a very interesting support zone, where more downside could be limited.
Grega
Buyers returned but can they follow through?But here's have returned to the S&P 500 on Monday but will they have the ability to follow through to close above 5900 on Tuesday. The PPI report on Tuesday May just give them the incentive to continue to push this market higher.
OverreactionThe movement in the S&P 500 on Friday has the markings of a market overreaction to the fundamentals that came out on Friday. The economy and the labor market is healthy which means the Fed may not be in a hurry to lower the fed funds rate. The expectation for Monday is a smaller range day inside of Friday's price range.
OTEUM Expert Call: Intramonth Short to kick start the Year🚀 OTEUM’s Power Play: Kicking off 2025 with an Intramonth Short CME_MINI:ESH2025 !
We’re eyeing a sharp shakeout before Trump takes office, targeting the next daily support levels. Keep an eye on the 6000-6050 value zone for the perfect entry to ride this sell-off wave to next daily supports.
Market Stress Echo's 2005-2008 in 2022-2025
Found a correlation between ES1! futures and SPY equity flow of money between the two, starting with 2004
Starting at the first vertical divider one can observe a "sawtooth wave" in RSI naturally known for its robotic sequence. Up to 2008 where this automation stopped. After 2008 we see normal movement in the market, aka "human randomness of noise (buys/sells)" or as I like to call it "human trading" during 2009 to 2016 has less of a robotic movement than between 2004-2008.
Finally we see that in 2022 this sawtooth wave again re-appeared (consider trying ES1!/SPY and observing those time lines on a Daily Chart, you will be surprised at the smoothness of the sawtooth wave.
What does this show me? Is it a crash? Not certainly, however when liquidity is at its max with lower than usual volume (Considering printed money has gotten us out of market liquidity limitations aka bank stimulus in 2008 and buybacks the years after) we can conclude a similar event is unfolding.
At least, we see a pattern and we know what happened at the end of the previous sawtooth waveform.
Will length be similar? Will there be the same amount of waves? This is up to fundamentals and liquidity left in the market after everyone and their grandmother have thrown all their cash in equities (including Europeans currently being the new fish in the pond). No way to predict the end of this liquidity cycle, but I'm watching a break in the form.
Another good use on the smaller timeframe daily candles is to watch ES1!/SPY for reocurring green or red candles (green normally means ES1! gains liquidity, Red normally means SPY gains liquidity).
Example: If 4 green candles in a row, high probability 5th green candle with be red giving another probability tool for downward daily scalp. In the same light if 4 red candles in a row, higher probability 5th will be green giving low risk high reward daily scalp call.
While this tool is great for scalping and complementing existing tools like supports/resistances/technical patterns/RSI/EMA's/VWAPS in the short term. In the long term this ES1!/SPY can show interesting patterns that only seem to pop up before major crashes, looking closer one can notice the same loose pattern pre-2000 dot com crash.
Since the majority of the market has begun automatically trading using algorithms and over time increased in this automation, this leads me to believe this signal to be even louder than in the past: dot com vs GFC vs current day repetition.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 1.12 - 1.17.2025Last Week :
Sunday Globex opened inside the Mean of Previous HTF Range and got a push to VAH which held into RTH that brought in more buying to make a run at the Ranges Edge where we found Supply, for strength to remain we needed to stay and build over VAH instead we build supply at/under VAH and when buying ran out we made a move for VAL. From weekly plan this is what we were looking for a push back under 978 - 73 Intraday Edge to give us sells back towards the Edge where we saw covering and support which gave us holds for a couple days but over all we were ablet to stay under VAL and build supply which kept signaling weakness, Friday we built up enough supply to fully break through the Edge and this time around with more supply above us we had enough selling to get into new Value. Area over swing stops provided good covering which gave us a push back out of Value but we can see that selling was strong enough to get back into the Mean area of the Range to close just above those stops.
This Week :
This week we are set up open inside the Value of new/previous HTF Range of 913 - 792, We are inside 882 - 841 Intraday Range, Under the Daily Mean of 913 - 896 with now more supply trapped over it. The area where and way we closed Friday is signaling that we should see continuation to the current move or at least more weakness going into this week, as long as we hold under VAH under 5888 - 5900 we can continue with weakness towards current Intraday Edge lows at 841 - 36 which would also take out the swing swing stops under us to give us more selling to test lower VAL and possibly see sells under it towards Previous Distribution Balance we had which was a big cost basis area above Daily Edge that we consolidated at for some time before making new ATH 10.14. To me this was our real ATH and possibly a top area as everything after that was more of Election Speculations and Momentum which died out and now brough us back under that ATH.
Also mentioned last week that we had a big failure over Daily Edge which usually targets previous daily areas and so far we have visited Daily Mean which Friday we finally broke and closed under and tagged Daily VAL which is this 846 - 828, Daily lower Edge is 754 - 24 which has some Poor/Weak Lows and a contract roll gap under. Daily Edge and Gap under will still remain good targets going forward but need be careful as those are Daily targets and can take time for us to get there, current VAL and areas under it could provide good enough covering holds and new buying when prices hold to give us enough support to not continue for bigger targets right away but instead balance and build more supply which we will need to go and fill those areas out when we are ready.
Over all we are looking for more weakness going into this week but we have to be careful as we have that Previous Distribution balance at 800 - 750 area which had 2 weeks of consolidation that can keep us up and see covering at or over it. For bigger moves out of this HTF Range we would either need to hold and build supply under VAL before taking out the Edge like we did last week above or we would need strong volume that can break VAL and another strong push that can fully break lower Edge to hold under 780 - 70s, until then we may stay inside new current HTF Range and balance around its Value and areas out of Value without accepting under/over Edges.
For strength to return or to think higher prices out of this Range we would need to be able to hold over VAH and see a good push in above Edge that could hold inside it without coming back in, until then Higher Time Frames have been transitioning into a correction mode so far Daily is in correction as long as we keep holding under 960s and Weekly as well showing signs of corrections starting but it still needs time to set up which can take time so we have to be patient especially after big moves already taking place.
Strategy Winter — Spring 2025. S&P500 Index Choking DiagonalUS markets were shacked on Friday, January 10th, after the December NFP jobs report came in much stronger than expected.
The US economy added 256,000 jobs in December, well above the average economist estimate of 155,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in November, although it remains above its 6-month simple moving average.
The Nasdaq-100 immediately fell about 1%, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note jumped nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, its highest since October 2023.
The strong payrolls report further strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve not to cut interest rates again until at least 2025.
The move in stocks and bonds is a continuation of what has been happening in recent weeks: After a period of mega-euphoric optimism, investors have begun to expect higher inflation driven by President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed trade and fiscal policies. If bond yields continue to rise, Americans will feel the brunt of it.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets now expect just one rate cut of 25 basis points this year, down from as many as three at the end of last year. The odds of no rate cuts in 2025 more than doubled to 28% on Friday morning.
The dollar index TVC:DXY skyrocketed to the Moon, while the yield on 10-year U.S. sovereign bonds TVC:TNX stays well above 4.5%.
Endogenously, the market has been preparing for such turbulence for a long time, as discussed in the previously published idea “Strategy 2025. BTC Airless Scenario Below $100'000 Choking Point” .
I have to remind that the financial market had tough weeks in December 2024, but it could also face a tough year in 2025, as I noted then.
The market was on track for its worst weeks in years after the Federal Reserve gave a hawkish forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025. But looking at the market internals, it was clear that the damage had been done well before the December Fed meeting – and this signal was a historical indicator of tough times ahead.
Thus, Dow Jones Futures CBOT_MINI:YM1! ended 2024 with the 3rd RED WEEK in a row, forming the Bearish Candlestick Pattern "Three Black Crows" on the weekly timeframe, which developed, remarkably, from the all-time highs of the Dow Jones index.
Last week, Dow Jones Futures ended with the 6th RED WEEK in a row - and this is a rather rare event.
Historical backtest analysis over the past 25 years shows that this can lead to a further (at least) 10-percent drop for the Top-30 stock club.
Bulls have done a lot of work, advanced more than 2,000 points in 2023-24, for the S&P500 index. However they were unable to finalize their achievements confidently above the round 6-thousand mark by the end of 2024.
By the way, the same inability in Bitcoin to finalize 2024 above the round 100,000 mark is now repeatedly throwing the market back to lower price marks, as discussed in the recently published idea.
The main technical chart indicates a suffocating bearish diagonal in development for the S&P500 index, with targets for decline down to 5'250 points.
Combined US Equities - Critical Support Line BROKEN DOWNJust yesterday, the line was drawn and by the close of the day/week, it was done... the line broke with a close below.
So, zooming out into the weekly charts, and we see the TD Sequential starts for a Buy Setup (means bullish till end of Setup). Projecting a simple waterfall scenario brings US equities down to target at the TDST, and meeting a confluence of several support levels.
Noted MACD crossed down as is RoVD tapering down too.
This is the simplest straight line outcome.
Alternatively, might see a weak bounce for a lower high on the weekly charts and then the cliff fall in mid- to end-February.
Just need to know, then decide what to do.
On a seperate note.
The First 5 days of the trading week of January is part of the January Barometer where how January closes is how the year goes. and this ended DOWN.
Now, if January is ending DOWN as well, then you decide how 2025 is ending most likely.
Already obvious 2025 is challenging till September.
Watch for it and be wary.
All the best!
ES - continues the downtrendOn ES , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 5942.50. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated.
I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again.
Fair Volume GAP (FVG) and high volume cluster + Weekly POC are the main reasons for my decision to go short on this trade.
Happy trading,
Dale
trade gone bad 1/10/25 messold at the red line thinking it was in a pretty clear downtrend. where did i go wrong?
Be cautiousIf you're on the short side of the S&P 500 going into Thursday shortened session, be cautious we are approaching levels that we have found buyers consistently in the past. At the moment it doesn't seem we have bullish fundamentals supporting this market.
AMP Futures - Enhance line charts with gradient customization.In this idea we will demonstrate how to apply the new Gradient line chart customization feature.
Not looking for dramaNot looking for drama in the S&P 500 for Wednesday. The expectation is a low volatility day.
Bollinger Bars: A New collaboration with John BollingerIn this idea we will demonstrate how to apply the new Bollinger bars indicator.
Bearish Descending Triangle Textbook bearish descending triangle on the daily timeframe. Going to play the breakdown to the downside to see if it comes through. Standby for price targets if it breaks.
