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E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Dec 2016)E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Dec 2016)E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Dec 2016)

E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Dec 2016)

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ESZ2016 trade ideas

S&P 500 – Corrective Structure in Progress Everything is unfolding as planned for TVC:SPX AMEX:SPY OANDA:SPX500USD : after a completed impulse to the downside, we're seeing a complex WXY correction, with wave (y)potentially ending around the 0.618 retracement level and the MA20w. Currently, wave B of the second leg is developing. Once it's complete, we may see a final push upward before a larger wave C to the downside. ⚠️ Key area to watch: 5780–5840 CME_MINI:ES1! zone for potential exhaustion.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by shakatrade1_618
5
Understanding MACD In TradingThe Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that measures the relationship between two moving averages of an asset’s price. Developed by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s, MACD is designed to provide insights into both trend strength and momentum. Unlike simple moving averages, which merely smooth price data over a specific period, MACD goes a step further by identifying when short-term momentum is shifting in relation to the long-term trend. This makes it a valuable tool for traders looking to enter or exit positions at optimal points. 1. Why is MACD important in trading? Trend Confirmation: Identifies whether an asset is in an uptrend or downtrend. Momentum Strength: Measures how strong a price movement is. Reversal Signals: Detects potential changes in trend direction. Entry and Exit Points: Helps traders determine when to buy and sell. 2. MACD Components The MACD Line: Identifies whether an asset is in an uptrend or downtrend. This line is derived by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA. When the MACD Line is positive, it indicates bullish momentum; when negative, it suggests bearish momentum. The Signal Line: Measures how strong a price movement is. A 9-period EMA of the MACD Line. It smooths out MACD fluctuations, making it easier to identify crossovers. The Histogram: Detects potential changes in trend direction. The difference between the MACD Line and the Signal Line. A positive histogram suggests increasing bullish momentum, while a negative histogram suggests growing bearish momentum. 3. MACD Formula The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is one of the most widely used technical indicators in trading. It helps traders identify trends, momentum shifts, and potential buy or sell opportunities by analyzing the relationship between two moving averages. By calculating the difference between a short-term and long-term exponential moving average (EMA), MACD provides insight into market direction and strength. //@version=6 indicator("MACD Indicator", overlay=false) // MACD parameters shortLength = 12 longLength = 26 signalLength = 9 // Calculate MACD macdLine = ta.ema(close, shortLength) - ta.ema(close, longLength) signalLine = ta.ema(macdLine, signalLength) histogram = macdLine - signalLine // Plot MACD components plot(macdLine, color=color.blue, title="MACD Line") plot(signalLine, color=color.red, title="Signal Line") plot(histogram, color=color.green, style=plot.style_columns, title="Histogram") Explanation: Short EMA (12-period) and Long EMA (26-period) are calculated. The MACD Line is the difference between these EMAs. A Signal Line (9-period EMA of MACD Line) is calculated. The Histogram represents the difference between the MACD Line and the Signal Line. 4. Interpreting MACD signals MACD Crossovers A crossover occurs when the MACD Line and Signal Line intersect: Bullish Crossover: When the MACD Line crosses above the Signal Line, it signals a potential uptrend and a buying opportunity. Bearish Crossover: When the MACD Line crosses below the Signal Line, it suggests a potential downtrend and a selling opportunity. MACD Divergences Divergences occur when MACD moves in the opposite direction of the price, signaling a potential reversal: Bullish Divergence: If price makes lower lows, but MACD makes higher lows, it suggests weakening downward momentum and a possible bullish reversal. Bearish Divergence: If price makes higher highs, but MACD makes lower highs, it signals weakening upward momentum and a potential bearish reversal. Histogram Interpretation The MACD histogram visually represents momentum shifts: When bars are increasing in height, momentum is strengthening. When bars shrink, it suggests momentum is weakening. Zero Line Crossings The MACD crossing the zero line indicates momentum shifts: MACD crossing above zero → Bullish trend initiation. MACD crossing below zero → Bearish trend initiation. 5. Trend & Momentum Analysis Traders use MACD to confirm trends and analyze market momentum: If MACD Line is above the Signal Line, an uptrend is in place. If MACD Line is below the Signal Line, a downtrend is dominant. A widening histogram confirms strong momentum in the trend’s direction. A narrowing histogram warns of potential trend weakening. MACD works best in trending markets and should be used cautiously in sideways markets. 6. MACD Based Trading Strategies Entry Strategies Buy when MACD Line crosses above the Signal Line in an uptrend. Sell when MACD Line crosses below the Signal Line in a downtrend. Exit Strategies Exit long trades when a bearish crossover occurs. Close short positions when a bullish crossover occurs. Position Management If the histogram is expanding, traders can hold positions. If the histogram is contracting, it may signal weakening momentum. 7. Limitations of MACD While MACD is a powerful tool, traders must consider: It lags behind price movements (since it is based on moving averages). It can generate false signals in choppy markets. Customization is required to suit different trading styles. 8. Optimization Optimizing MACD for Different Market Conditions Day Traders & Scalpers: Use faster settings like (5, 13, 6) for quick signals. Swing Traders: Stick with the default (12, 26, 9) setting for balanced signals. Long-Term Investors: Use slower settings like (24, 52, 18) for a broader market perspective. 9. Key Takeaways MACD is a momentum and trend-following indicator that helps traders identify market direction, strength, and potential reversals. Since MACD is a lagging indicator, it may generate false signals, especially in sideways markets. Combining MACD with RSI, moving averages, and volume indicators improves accuracy and reduces risk. MACD should be used alongside risk management strategies and other confirmation tools for best results. MACD remains one of the most effective technical indicators, widely used across different markets. It helps traders identify trends, confirm momentum, and optimize trade entries and exits. However, it should always be used with additional tools to minimize false signals. Stay sharp, stay ahead, and let’s make those moves. Until next time, happy trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CandelaCharts
2
ES UpdateGap is still open but market is cycling down. RSI is not oversold yet. Probably a bounce when RSI hits oversold, but I don't expect a big one until the daily gets oversold. Market took such a big shit that firms had to sell gold futures for to cover losses and margin calls. So gold is red now as well. SO that play also appears to be done. Too bad I didn;t just short something before close like XLF or AAPL. Gaps are so huge, I have no idea how to play this. I don;t recommend going long today though, unless its just a day trade.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
6
They Shut Down the AlgosYou can see in the chart that during the initial Feb/March drop that the algos were still running, and we'd see at least a small bounce when MFI/RSI got oversold, however you can see that they shut the algos down yesterday, MFI totally flatlined for 2 days which is something that did not happen on the initial drop. So basically, there's no point for me to plot 3 hr charts until they turn the algos back on. I will post when that happens. Made a bunch of mistakes this week, but managed to break even daytrading XLF puts twice today. XLF was lagging the market a bit which made it easier to trade.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
2
ES UpdateSo MFI hit oversold this morning as the gap filled, so I figured we'd get a bounce.... but it looks like hedge funds sold off every algo pump and MFI totally flatlined at the bottom. How do I know hedge funds were liquidating? Crap like FCEL went green because they close their short positions when they close their long positions. Yeah, I got a little stupid and lost some money today, I tried to warn my followers in my comments not to go long today, sure enough market sold off EOD. I think it's time to do chart pattern short plays. Will let you know if I see anything good.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
12
ES - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 5619 and 5651. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated. I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again. Downtrend and Volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go short on this trade. Happy trading, Dale
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trader_Dale
bearflag broke downno rate cuts but im still balling we already tested that gap (rectangle) so a second attempt will probably close it. that will throw us well below the year to date value range so im looking at it as a potential bottom. if this gap fails to hold im looking at the previous range for help and the previous value area high to turn support (classic what was once resistance is now support) on the shorter timeframe i anticipate 5485 to act as support a small bounce can make it look like a head and shoulders pattern for the bearflag target if there's any bullish play note this is not a trade i will take unless the data and reaction at the level will look bullish. so make sure you know we can straight up nuke on monday. (eyes on BTC during this weekend) anyone who saw my posts before i talked about how we need to rotate back to value thats exactly what happened. previous range value area high was left untested, retesting it is quite the possibility. (theres a gap right above it )
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Captainobvious5454
ES/SPY Bottoming Process Gaining More ClarityThe George W Bush pattern still seems to be forming...taking the longer larger and more powerful form. Will the right lower part of the W take place above the lower left side, dead even or below. Certainly sentiment would lead us to believe it will be well below the left side. However, today failed to make a lower low. Selling may resume Sunday night/Monday morning or the double bottom retest may be complete....OR of course we can keep charging significantly lower.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by tbuckle
Weekly Market Forecast: SELL THE INDICES!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, AND DOW JONES Futures for the week of March 31st - April 4th. The equity markets took a bearish turn last week. This is likely to continue for the upcoming week. Monday is the end of March. Tuesday brings a new week and new opportunities. April 2nd brings... potentially market flipping volatility. The day the Trump tariffs are implemented. Be careful. Let the market give you direction, and then get involved. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by RT_Money
Liberation, Altercation or Doom? ES Futures weekly planCME_MINI:ES1! Quick Update ​The upcoming week is poised to be critical for financial markets as President Donald Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" on April 2 approaches. On this date, the administration plans to implement new tariffs aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit by imposing reciprocal duties on imports from various countries. ​ As April 2 looms, the full impact of these tariffs remains uncertain, leaving markets and investors in a state of heightened anticipation.​ We may get clarity on the tariff situation on April 2, 2025. Universal tariff announcement of categories of imports may clarify US administration’s maximum tariff escalation approach. A phased out and unclear tariff approach may keep markets in limbo. Economic Calendar Keep an eye on the data docket, NFP and other key releases are due this week. Tuesday, Apri 1, 2025 : ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings Wednesday April 2, 2025 : ADP Employment Change, Factory Orders MoM Thursday April 3, 2025 : Balance of Trade, Imports, Exports, ISM Services PMI, Initial Jobless Claims Friday, April 4, 2025 : Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM,Average Hourly Earnings YoY, Fed Chair Powell Speech Key Levels to Watch: Yearly Open 2025 : 6001.25 Key Resistance : 5850- 5860 LVN : 5770 -5760 Neutral Zone : 5705-5720 Key LIS Mid Range 2024 : 5626.50 2024-YTD mCVAL : 5381 2022 CVAH : 5349.75 August 5th, 2024 Low : 5306.75 Scenario 1: Bold but Strategic Tariffs (Effective Use of Tariff to reduce trade deficit and raise revenue) : In this scenario, we may see relief rally in ES futures, price reclaiming 2024 mid-range with a move higher towards key resistance level. Scenario 2: Maximum pressure, maximum tariff (All out trade war) : In this scenario, we anticipate a sell-off with major support levels, such as 2024- YTD mCVAL, 2022 CVAH and August 5th, 2024 low as immediate downside targets. Scenario 3: Further delays in Tariff policy (A negotiating tool, with looming uncertainty) : In this scenario, sellers remain in control and uncertainty persists, while we anticipate that rallies may be sold, market price action may remain choppy and range bound.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
ES/SPY Possible Enhancement On Idea.As per usually channel lines are nice but common price action includes big pushes past them and then reclaiming them. This provides great opportunities for big money to run the stops, scoop of the shares, paint a big wick and keep trucking. It's how the game is played and provides no real ability as to where to count on a bottom or to put stops. Non the less the channel lines provide an idea as to where to see signs of traction or of course a top for further bull traps or sell offs. Personally I think peak tariffs fears are near and at some point the market will accept them and move on.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by tbuckle
S&P 500 Futures Potential Short OpportunitiesThe S&P 500 futures index has retraced approximately half its previous losses from a steep sell-off that began at 6148. After rejection at 5818, prices now hover precariously above critical Support at 5732. Immediate Support Test: Failure at 5732 would trigger additional bearish pressure toward the next support levels at 5649 and 5566. Bullish Reversal Potential: Only a decisive close above 5818 would suggest a more constructive outlook, which currently appears improbable amid elevated VIX levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Rotuma
Q1 Recap and What’s AheadThe first quarter of 2025 saw significant price movements in many different asset classes. Traders saw equity indices broadly selling off with the ES contract falling near 10% from the highs while Gold continued to push higher to all time high levels. There are many factors contributing to the price movement, including a shift in the administration in the U.S., geopolitical tensions globally, and critical tariff announcements looming. There are also questions about the Fed environment and the strategy that will be implemented this year to begin cutting interest rates. Looking at the CME Fed Watch Tool today, it seems the market is pricing another rate pause for the May meeting and a near 60% chance of rate cuts coming in June. There is a large slate of economic date coming out for the rest of the week that could add great volatility to this uncertain market, including: Tariff Announcement Initial Jobless Claims Nonfarm Payroll Unemployment Rate Average Hourly Earnings This morning, traders saw the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change come in higher than expected and the markets are having a mixed reaction. President Trump will be speaking at 3:00 P.M. Central Time to introduce the tariff plan and how it will be rolled out, adding a level of clarity for the market moving forward into Q2. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CME_Group
S&P500: Persistent SupportThe S&P 500 continued its recovery following its reaction to the support at 5509 points. However, in our primary scenario, we expect the index to fall below this mark to ultimately complete wave in green within our color-matched Target Zone (coordinates: 4988 points – 4763 points). Within this range, there are entry opportunities for long positions, which could be hedged with a stop 1% below the Zone’s lower boundary. Once the corrective movement has reached its low, the final upward movement of the green wave structure should commence. In the process, the index should gain significantly and reach the high of wave above the resistance at 6166 points. If this mark is surpassed prematurely, our alternative scenario with a 30% probability will come into play.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel