ES1! Intraday levels for 16-17 March Oh no!
Here are the levels for ES1! tonight/tomorrow.
Sorry for the poor graphics, it seems Tradingview has uh, prevented publishing ideas with "private" indicators overlaid.
Unfortunately my levels are exported from secondary software for overlay on Tradingview via pinescript so it really makes sharing ideas much more difficult.
I understand the reason but for the rare person like me who uses Pine just for plotting functions its a real hassle, so I beg you Tradingview to reconsider! haha
Okay, anyway now that that is out of the way, I am very neutral for the session tonight/tomorrow.
I expect moves in both directions, and keep in mind we have FOMC on Wednesday.
The probability metrics favour the downside targets but don't think its unreasonable to expect both upside and downside targets.
Looking for it to snag either resistance of support first before taking a position this evening.
Good luck everyone! Safe trades!!! 🚀
ES1! trade ideas
S&P 500 (March Contract) - Stock Market Loses $5 Trillion!The S&P 500′s rapid 10% decline from a record high into correction territory has wiped out trillions of dollars in market value.
The market value of the S&P 500 at its Feb. 19 peak was $52.06 trillion, according to FactSet. Thursday’s decline put the index’s market value down to $46.78 trillion.
That makes for a total loss of about $5.28 trillion in about three weeks.
Will the rate announcements cause S&P 500 to sink lower into the abyss??
Reference: www.cnbc.com
Weekly Market Analysis - 16th March 2025 (DXY, NZD, ES, BTC)This is weekly market analysis of a few pairs (DXY, NZD, ES, BTC).
I haven't done one of these in a while, but here it is!
I would have done more pairs but the video was already 30 minutes long and I went into more teaching rather than pure analysis.
I hope you found it insightful to your own trading, because what I teach is the truth of the market regardless of whatever specific strategy you use for trading.
Anything can make money in the markets, but of course, risk management and discipline rule all.
- R2F Trading
Why DCA Does Not Work For Short-Term TradersIn this video I go through why DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) does not work for short-term traders and is more suitable for investors. I go through the pitfalls than come through such techniques, as well as explain how trading should really be approached. Which at it's cost should be based on having a positive edge and using the power of compounding to grow your wealth.
I hope this video was insightful, and gives hope to those trying to make it as a trader. Believe me, it's possible.
- R2F Trading
SPY shortsThe chart displays the S&P 500 E-mini Futures (4-hour timeframe) with technical analysis indicators. Key features include:
Current Price: 5,628.25 (SELL) and 5,629.25 (BUY).
Recent Movement: The price recently bounced from a low and is projected to reach 5,676.00 by March 17, 2025, before potentially dropping to 5,392.50 by March 24, 2025, reflecting a decline of -283.50 points (-4.99%) in 7 days.
Fibonacci Levels:
0.5 retracement levels at 5,836.25 and 5,641.75.
Extension levels indicate potential further declines below 5,352.00 and 5,253.75.
Pivot Points: Marked at multiple levels (e.g., 5,935.50 and 6,166.50) for resistance and support.
Volume: 410.25K with a daily gain of +112.50 points (+2.04%).
Projection: The blue arrow suggests a bearish outlook after a short-term rise, with a significant price drop expected.
This chart is likely part of a trading strategy based on Fibonacci retracements, pivots, and projected price movements.
Full recovery on the way? Perhaps...As I stated in my last observation, the "bottom" held and the S&P e-mini's began to move up reaching a .236 retracement at 5639. Considering the damage from the last few weeks, it was a welcome and much needed recovery. Looking forward, I expect a continuation of the market to chop higher heading to the next important level of 5709, or a .382 retracement. There was so much damage to so many stocks that it would be hard to expect much more than this, but given the highly emotional way people sold into this down move, there should be an equally emotional move higher as FOMO kicks in and investors reluctantly buying many of the same companies they
recently sold: wash sale rules be damned.
A look at the ES1!What's up traders,
Havent posted in a while.
Heres my take and outlook for next week, using the MES1! (SP500)
Current Outlook
Technical Look:
Momentum Bearish -323.25 (looks weak)
MACD Bearish, possibly inflecting
RSI 36.72, off lows and crossing MA (oversold)
200D SMA at 5775.75 (Below the 50 Day)
50D SMA at 5967.43 (Above the 200 Day) Trending towards a Death Cross
Price Action
Bullish Engulfing Candle on the March 14 bounce.
Price successfully crossed the 5600 Psychological Level
We bounced at ~5500
Experiencing resistance in the 5640-5620 Range (expected)
Sentiment
Canada showed promise as heading towards a (take your best guess at the details) resolution to the tariff fight with the united states.
Tariffs remain a major drag on the stock market pricing.
Government shut down at time of this post, is apparently narrowly avoided.
Gold Set a new high.
Outlook for Next Week
Economic Reports
Monday - Retail Sales 830AM
Tuesday - Building Permits, Housing Starts 830AM
Wednesday - Fed Int Rate Decision 2PM, JPOW Speech 230PM
Thursday - Existing home sales 10AM
Notable Earnings Reports
Micron
Nike
Fed Ex
General Mills
Carinval Cruise
NIO
Tencent
I viewed the Firday bounce as a sort of 'relief rally'. My belief is that we could go higher on the back of it. The market has majorly 'oversold' by the numbers - and the probability of a bounce became increasingly likely. Upside resistance to remain mercurial on the rapidly changing sentiment narrative.
A possible outcome: retest the underside of the 200DMA.
I do not expect a notable price recovery towards ATH's until the tariff effects are known, which means: I expect higher than normal volatility for several months
Earnings projections (in the coming earnings season) will shed the required light on reality.
I have been adding long term holds - such as:
GDX
DAX
META
GOOG
AMZN
BABA
UNH
C
CRWD
IBIT
NVO
CMG
INDA
AVGO
I remain ~90% cash at ~3.7% yield.
Resistance possibly at:
5672 August 2024 Resistance, September 2024 Support
5724 July 2024 Resistance and later Support
5775 (200 Day SMA)
ES futures update 14/03/'25The key trading zones from yesterday's analysis remain unchanged.
Yesterday's plan was to short at the demand zone retest after the breakdown, but the trade was cancelled since price never reached my entry point.
Today, I'll be watching for either a short opportunity at the 4H supply zone or a long position after a breakout and retest of the supply zone.
Follow me for more trading updates.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/14/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/14/2025
📈5600 5640
📉5560 5520
Like and share for more daily ES levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update March 14thYesterday was all about 5558 in ES. After a drop to 5512 support, bulls needed to reclaim 5558 for upside. That level was tested twice before a sell-off, but once it cleared at 8:30 PM, buyers stepped in, pushing the market +20 points higher.
As of now:
• 5598, 5615 are the next upside levels as long as 5558 (now weaker) holds
• A break below 5558 opens the door for a drop to 5548, then 5533
Will ES go more deeper ?The E-mini S&P 500 futures contract ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) exhibited a liquidation profile (Profile A), characterized by two distinct distributions. The subsequent session (Profile B) formed a balanced profile and remained entirely below the lower distribution of Profile A, indicating continued bearish sentiment.
Profile C emerged as a short-covering profile, with its upper boundary testing the high of Profile B by a minimal margin. Both Profile B and C exhibited trading activity around the lower distribution of Profile A without breaching its low. Profiles A, B, and C established a base at the C Line, identified as a longer-term support or demand zone.
Yesterday's session (Profile D) also presented a liquidation profile, briefly trading below the C Line before recovering and maintaining balance around this level. The market demonstrates reluctance for further downside, with lower prices consistently triggering short-covering rallies rather than initiating new selling. Even though Profile D traded lower, it did not exhibit significant selling conviction.
Given the prevailing geopolitical risks, including the ongoing tariff disputes and the unresolved Ukraine-Russia conflict, further liquidation during today's Regular Trading Hours (RTH) remains a possibility.
However, sustained buying interest above the balance of Profile C, driven by short covering and new long positions, would indicate a potential shift in market sentiment towards accumulation on a higher timeframe. The market's behavior during today's RTH session will be crucial in determining the next directional move.
UncertaintyThe structure on Thursday in the daily S&P 500 chart reflects the uncertainty the market feels about tariffs and economic results coming out in the United States. It keeps the market on edge and the result is we had a down day on Thursday. Asia is a little firmer and the overall structure implies an inside day as we go into the weekend. This means Friday's behavior would be inside the range of Thursday's range.
Coming closer to a potential target for the shortsWell the grind down continues, Es has slowly been grinding down while giving some nice relief pops off of some measured moves of our Daytrader indicator on the bottom right giving traders a chance to join in the trend.
With no major news tomorrow I anticipate another move down to the next gap range on the top right chart and will be watching the yellow lines I have on the left chart that shows the last untouched retracement ranges from previous sessions.
I am not calling bottom there but I will be watching for a possible reaction to start scaling into longs if the opportunity presents itself, but with little catalyst I will not be slamming the buy button. We also have the contract change next week so we might not see anything exciting until after we transition to the next contract and the dust settles.
Trade well and take profit early, this market is giving lots of opportunities for short term trades that can come against you quickly!
Potential US Stock Market Crash Monday March 17,2025The United States stock market,
as measured by the S+P 500 Stock Index Futures June 2025 Contract (ESM25)
30 Years Of Continuous WEEKLY Chart DATA ( my own proprietary chart )
reveals the stock market could CRASH on Monday March 17,2025
IF todays ES June 2025 Contract Low of 5559.75 is violated Weekly Close on Friday 3/14 !!
Long positions in the stock US stock market should be closely monitored,
or sold outright if this were to occur tomorrow March 14,2025
ES June 25 Contract Last 3/13/25 248 PM 5600.
THE_UNWIND
WOODS OF CONNECTICUT
ES futures trade setup 13/03/'25Hello,
In today's trade analysis, I will review potential setups for this trading day. Since the overall trend is bearish, I favor short positions over long positions.
I have identified two important zones on the 4H timeframe that align well with the 1H timeframe.
4H supply zone: 5,643 - 5,630
4H demand zone: 5,577 - 5,558
We've seen both false breakouts and breakdowns in recent days, indicating choppy market conditions.
My plan is to either go short in the upper 4H supply zone or short a breakdown of the 4H demand zone. For the latter, I'll wait for the candle to close below the zone and set my entry on a retest.