TVMV Framework PreviewAs I explained in the video, this is a preview on an upcoming framework I plan to release once I break either 100-1000 followers.
Best Wishes.
ES1! trade ideas
Pivot Candles with MFI OpacityHow to Use the Pivot Candles with MFI Opacity Indicator for Trade Entries and Position Management
Overview
This indicator is designed not only to display key pivot levels (support and resistance) and Money Flow Index (MFI) signals on your chart, but also to help you structure systematic order entries and position management. By combining pivot levels with dynamic MFI-based candle opacity, the indicator provides a visual framework that technical analysts and quants can use to time buy and sell stop orders as well as to pyramid positions or take profits.
Trade Entry with Pivot Levels
Buy Stop Orders Above R1:
Concept: In many technical setups, resistance levels such as R1 are viewed as potential breakout points. A buy stop order placed just above R1 allows you to enter a long position only when price decisively breaks the prior resistance, confirming bullish momentum.
How It Works:
The indicator calculates pivot levels based on the previous higher‑timeframe bar, so R1 is “locked in” for the current period.
When the current candle closes above R1, it may signal a breakout.
Technical analysts often place a buy stop order slightly above R1 (for example, a few ticks or pips above the level) to confirm the move.
Practical Application:
Quants and systematic traders can program their models to monitor when the current close exceeds R1.
Once this condition is met, a buy stop order is triggered to capture the breakout move, ensuring that you only participate if the price decisively moves upward.
Sell Stop Orders Below S1:
Concept: Conversely, S1 acts as a support level. A sell stop order placed just below S1 is designed to capture a breakdown. This order is activated when price closes below S1, indicating that selling pressure may be overwhelming.
How It Works:
With pivot levels fixed from the previous higher‑timeframe bar, S1 provides a reference for potential support.
A close below S1 can be interpreted as a sign of a bearish reversal or a continuation of a downtrend.
Practical Application:
Quants set up their systems to watch for a break below S1.
A sell stop order is positioned just below S1 to ensure that if the support level fails, the system can quickly initiate a short position to capture the downward move.
Using MFI for Position Management
Pyramiding and Profit Taking:
Dynamic Candle Opacity:
The Money Flow Index (MFI) in this indicator not only provides overbought/oversold alerts but also controls the opacity of your candlesticks. When MFI readings are high, the candles become more opaque, indicating strong buying pressure. Conversely, lower MFI values lead to more transparent candles, suggesting reduced momentum.
Pyramiding Long Positions:
Strategy:
In a strong trend, technical analysts might choose to add to a winning position gradually—a process known as pyramiding.
Implementation:
As long as the price remains above R1 and MFI readings are supportive (high and consistent), you may consider adding to your long position incrementally.
Each new buy stop order can be set above R1 with slightly adjusted trigger levels to capture further breakout strength.
Risk Management:
Quants use the MFI reading as a risk filter; if MFI begins to drop or the candles become significantly more transparent, it may be a cue to stop pyramiding or even begin taking profits.
Taking Profit Using MFI and Pivot Reversals:
Profit Targeting:
When price reaches higher resistance levels (e.g., R2 or R3) or shows signs of overextension in conjunction with extreme MFI levels (for instance, a sudden drop in MFI after a strong rally), you can begin taking partial profits.
Systematic Exit:
A systematic strategy might include scaling out of the position as the price approaches the next resistance level or when the MFI indicates that buying momentum is waning.
Similarly, for short positions entered below S1, profit targets might be set near subsequent support levels, with exits triggered if MFI suggests a reversal.
Summary
Entry Orders:
Place buy stop orders just above R1 to capture breakouts.
Place sell stop orders just below S1 to capture breakdowns.
Position Management with MFI:
Use MFI-based candle opacity as a visual indicator of momentum.
Pyramid positions in the direction of the trend when MFI confirms strength.
Consider partial exits if MFI readings start to reverse or if the price nears the next pivot level.
By following this systematic approach, technical analysts and quants can use the indicator not only as a visual tool but as an integral part of an automated or semi-automated trading system that emphasizes disciplined entries, pyramiding, and profit-taking.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 2.16 - 2.21Last Week :
Sunday Globex again opened on a gap down just like previous week but this time it opened right at lower VAH and got a push back into over 6074 - 54 Edge. Holding over 6050s and inside/over the Edge meant stability for the market which brough in more buying but as we can see it took us a whole week of consolidating under VAL before we were able to push into upper Value towards the end of the week. We pushed into the Mean right up against our previous Supply area and that served as good resistance to keep us in small balance to finish the week on Friday.
This Week :
Tricky spot we find ourself in this week, on higher time frames like Monthly we are having inside month, weekly we are still holding sideways/up trend inside this 6230s - 5950s balance but one thing to note is we have mostly been back and forth between this balances Mean area and the low, so far dips under the low kept getting bought but we are not really getting any upside or holds over the Mean areas which could mean no acceptance inside it to cause continuation towards the top. On Daily TF we have been holding over between the Daily upper Edge of 6073 - 43 and upper Daily VAL of 6144 - 25 where we found balance to end the week on Friday.
Going into this week we are again inside the Value of this 6074 - 6195 Hourly's range and there are few things we can watch from here. If the market has truly accepted inside this range then we may hold inside the Value which will mean ranges will tighten up and we look to balance inside Current Intraday Range of 6155 - 6114, we have supply over 6144 so any pushes over it towards 6155 could find their way back into the Mean and we could see covering under 6125 over VAL. BUT something we have to watch out for is IF we again fail inside this Value and get into/under VAL this will be our first signal for a failure which can bring in weakness towards lower Edge, IF that happens and we find ourself inside lower Edge under 6074 - 60s that would confirm the failure and may bring in more weakness for market to try and go find Value lower, we do have lots of HTF stops lined up under us which would keep bringing weakness if we start taking them. We don't have any market moving data until Fed on Wednesday which could mean a slow start to the week and we must be careful forcing for downside IF we are holding over VAL because that keeps us stable. Of course IF we do again open on a gap down like we did last 2 weeks then that could change things BUT this time around IF we do then we need to be careful looking for a full return back like we had last 2 times.
For more strength out of this Value we would want price first show us holds over 6144 AND find stronger buying that can take us into/over upper VAH, until this happens we really need to watch out over 6140 as we may finish this month either inside +/- month inside this Value under 6160s OR since its our 3rd month in these areas without any upside, we could see size sell us back down towards Monthly balance lows which are down at 5950s.
S&P 500 (March 2025) - A Whole Heap Of Mumbo JumboThe markets is not presenting low resistance liquidity runs due to all the politics and tariffs being implemented right now but once things settle, ES will be in for the chance to test all time highs once again.
What we saw is perfection with the alignment of my bearish bias and how price respected the daily FVG @ $5,950 (mapped out with the red rectangle tool) on the Sunday going into Monday before repricing higher inside of the gap.
Understanding Buy The Dip In TradingBuying the dip is a trading strategy where you take advantage of temporary price drops in an overall uptrend. The goal is simple: enter the market at a lower price before it resumes its upward move. It sounds easy, but knowing when and how to do it makes all the difference. In this guide, we’ll explore key setups, ideal market conditions, and smart risk management techniques to help you trade dips like a pro. 🚀
1. Understanding Market Structure 🏗️
Before jumping into a trade, it’s crucial to understand how price moves. A strong uptrend is characterized by higher highs and higher lows—this is where buying dips can be very profitable. But beware: not every drop is a buying opportunity. Some dips are part of a pullback, a temporary retracement before the trend resumes, while others signal a complete reversal—the last thing you want to buy into.
Key levels to watch include support zones, Fibonacci retracement levels, and high-volume areas. These zones act as potential turning points where the price is likely to bounce.
2. Proven Setups for Buying the Dip 🎯
🔢 Fibonacci Retracement Support
When the price pulls back within a strong trend, it often lands on key Fibonacci levels like 38.2%, 50%, or 61.8%. These act as natural support points where buyers step in. If a strong bullish candle appears at one of these levels, it can signal a solid dip-buying opportunity.
Combine this with an oversold RSI and rising volume, and you have a strong case for entry.
🎭 Liquidity Grab (Stop Hunt)
Markets love to shake out weak hands. Sometimes, the price dips below a previous low, triggering stop-loss orders before reversing sharply. This is called a liquidity grab—smart money accumulates positions while retail traders panic.
If the price quickly reclaims the level it just broke, it’s a strong buy-the-dip signal. Look for big buy orders, a sharp recovery, and bullish candlesticks to confirm entry.
📊 Anchored VWAP Test
Institutions often base their trades around VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), especially when anchored from a significant swing low. When the price revisits this VWAP in a strong uptrend, it’s a potential dip-buying zone.
Watch for bounces off VWAP, rising volume, and confluence with other support levels for confirmation.
🔥 Point of Control (POC) Revisit
Markets move towards areas of high liquidity. If the price revisits the Point of Control (POC)—the price level where most volume is traded in a range—it often serves as strong support.
When price pulls back into the POC and finds buying interest, it’s a great spot to enter. Look for strong reactions, failed attempts to move lower, and confluence with Fibonacci levels.
📏 Previous Range Support
A breakout from a trading range is significant, but the price often returns to retest the range high as new support before continuing higher. If this happens on low selling pressure and aligns with moving averages or VWAP, it can be a golden buy-the-dip opportunity.
Look for bullish reactions, buying volume, and strong candles off the level.
3. When Buying the Dip Works Best ✅
Not all dips are worth buying. The best setups occur when:
The market is in a strong uptrend, making higher highs consistently. 📈
Volume is high, showing that buyers are stepping in. 🔥
Macro conditions support upside movement, like favorable economic news. 📰
4. Risk Management: Protecting Your Capital 🛡️
Even the best traders take losses. What matters is how you manage risk:
Set a Stop Loss 🎯: Always place a stop below key support levels.
Position Sizing 📊: Never risk more than a small portion of your capital per trade.
Have an Exit Plan 🚪: Know where you’ll take profits, whether it's at a resistance level or a trailing stop.
Scale In and Out 🎢: Enter gradually instead of all at once, and take profits along the way to lock in gains.
Key takeaways 🎤
Buying the dip can be a powerful strategy—when done correctly. The key is patience: wait for strong trends, allow price to reach significant levels, and confirm with volume and momentum. Combine technical analysis with solid risk management, and you’ll improve your chances of success in the markets. Happy trading! 🚀
ES_F (SPX Futures) Chart UpdateCME_MINI:ES1!
SPX futures now at decision point of the bull-flag built over the past two months.
S&P500 Weakness in 15 Min TimeframeHi Fellow traders
I'll be starting my regular post of my bias of the market. Using Futures market as a indication of potential strength and weakness of the market.
Bias will be shorter bearish on S&P as you can see from the comparison of Nasdaq VS S&P that S&P is failing to break higher higher forming a bearish SMT. As overall longer term trend 1H and 4H is still bullish. We will be playing a retracement leg.
Specifically shorting S&P > Nasdaq.
My prediction would be that market will open lower.
S&P 500 (March 2025) - A Whole Heap Of Mumbo JumboThe markets is not presenting low resistance liquidity runs due to all the politics and tariffs being implemented right now but once things settle, ES will be in for the chance to test all time highs once again.
What we saw is perfection with the alignment of my bearish bias and how price respected the daily FVG @ $5,950 (mapped out with the red rectangle tool) on the Sunday going into Monday before repricing higher inside of the gap.
Pensive close to the weekThe balanced close on Friday in the S&P 500 daily chart implies a pensive close to the end of the week. I am not looking for a dramatic move up or down on Monday but more of a rest day for this market as it tries to assess its fundamental environment.
S&P 500 - seems like we are back in the gameWith buyers swinging back all the news in the past month or so, they wanna gain full control.
Here we have: long term fibo with ew prediction
What do you think?
ES1 - S&P500 Retest of upper line of channelTo me this very clear and clean downward parallel channel has now been broken out of, with a confirmation of a retest of that line. Perhaps this is a good opportunity to go long on the S&P500.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/13/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/13/25
📈6100-6120
📉6060-6040
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FOCUS ON ZONES VERSES INDIVIDUAL PRICE LEVELS)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update Feb 14thYesterday morning, a reclaim of 6066-70 zone in ES kicked off an easy long trigger, with 6125 set as the final target and 6139 as a bonus. We managed to tag 6139 overnight before the market pulled back to 6125.
As of now:
• Let the runners keep working, as thats all i do on Fridays mainly.
• 6120-23 is acting as support (it held, but it’s showing some weakness).
• Holding above this level keeps 6133, 6137, and 6154 in play.
• If 6120 fails, expect a dip to 6113, then 6098.
14 February 2025The S&P rose on Thursday after President Donald Trump announced plans for reciprocal tariffs but postponed their implementation. Investors also reacted to a new report indicating that inflation may be picking up again.
Despite Trump’s tariff announcement, markets remained steady. During a briefing, he emphasized the need for “fair and reciprocal” tariffs on all U.S. trading partners. However, the order he signed did not immediately enforce the tariffs. Instead, they are set to take effect as early as April, allowing time for potential negotiations with other countries.
MES1 THE LEAP BULISHMES1 is another asset representing the S&P 500 during the current leap. It is currently showing a bullish movement. The targets, danger zone, and stop loss levels are marked on the chart.
Please pay close attention to the danger zone and stop loss.
Note: My ideas are not intended for any type of scalping or scalpers!
You can find the full list of my ideas here: www.tradingview.com
Here are some of my ideas:
ES1! Back in for a FREE TRADE!I'm looking at a bearish reentry for the ES1 (E-mini S&P 500 futures) as recent price action suggests weakness following a correction. After a strong sell-off, we've seen a brief pullback or consolidation, which could be setting up for a continuation of the bearish trend, especially if the price fails to break key resistance levels
A small range is expectedA smaller range for the S&P 500 daily chart is expected for Friday. Although we had a strong move to the upside on Thursday the same size of move would not be expected for Friday. However a positive close above 6150 would be the next objective to the upside.
OTEUM EXPERT CALL: Afraid of Tarrifs? SP500 Intraweek Short!🚨 E-mini S&P 500 (ESH2025) | Inflation & Tariff Pressure Short Setup 🔻
This chart screams "bearish vibes" 📉 as inflation heats up and tariff talks continue, casting a shadow over market optimism. We will be opening up NY session in a critical value area 🔴, signaling a potential continuation of the sell-off.
🎯 Riding this wave could unlock some sweet profit potential as macro pressures keep the market under fire. Stay sharp, traders! ⚡💼
Looking out on ESFib extensions and Elliot waves line up nicely. Today had a wild pump, two days against lots of bearish news... See what's to come in this pyramid scheme
ES Morning Update6020 has been the pivotal level in ES. It needed to hold after CPI yesterday to set up a rally toward 6070. It held perfectly, pushed through the 6066-70 zone, and later hit a bonus target at 6087 overnight. The range between 6020 and 6125 has become choppy, with 6070 acting as the key magnet.
As of now:
• Bulls want to hold 6058/recover 6070.
• Keeps 6087, 6104, 6125 live.
• 6020 fails, sell.
Bearish Intraday Position Started on ES1! price action suggests a potential downward move, with key resistance levels being tested. Watch for any breakdowns below support for further confirmation. Stay cautious and manage risk as the session progresses. Keep an eye on market sentiment, news, and volume for any shifts.
Buying the breakBuyers bought the break or lower prices in the S&P 500 daily chart for Wednesday. The challenge now is will the PPI economic numbers support buyers moving this market above the 6110 level.
