2025 H2 Roadmap UpdateFeel like the current price is "agreement" on a lower price range (boxs).
Our new range high is old range low.
2024 Vwap is next interest point.
Jobs are a bigger risk than CPI.
EOQ / OPEX / FOMC are possible bottoms.
ES1! trade ideas
ES trade review 3-4 w key levels and Mack triple test Triple test and mission complete
find confirmation and targets.
upside 10x trade idea on bear day.
ES Morning Update March 5thYesterday was the most volatile session in ES since August, with three 100+ point round trips. I was looking for a squeeze to 5875—we hit 5875 exactly.
As of now:
• Size down—volatility remains high
• 5798, 5784 are key supports
• A recovery of 5822 is needed to push toward 5858
• If 5784 fails, look for a drop to 5763, then new lows
ES Weekly Chart Analysis – Potential Medium-Term Top?The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) may have printed a temporary medium-term top at 6167.25, potentially initiating a Wave 4 correction (yellow circle). If this count holds, we could see prices retracing toward the 5115 area.
🔹 Key Levels to Watch:
✅ Bullish Bias: The trend remains firmly bullish until we start trading below 5715 and break the ascending channel's trendline.
❌ Bearish Confirmation: A decisive break below 5715 would strengthen the case for a deeper retracement, increasing the probability of a more extended correction.
🚨 No clear confirmation of the top yet! Until we see structural weakness, the primary trend remains bullish.
#SP500 #ES_F #ElliottWave #MarketAnalysis #Trading #Stocks #Futures
50-50 set up in the S&P 500 daily chartThe market will be focusing and scrutinizing on the Trump presentation to Congress. It will be searching for positive news with regard to tariffs, Ukraine and Israel. The expectation is the current lower levels would be attractive to buyers entering the market. However it will be the markets interpretation of the Trump presentation to Congress as the filter to determine if buyers will follow through.
Equity Prices Continue LowerAfter testing all time high levels in the ES contract on February 19th, equity markets have seen significant selling pressure which continued today while the precious metals saw a boost higher. One of the volatility drivers traders are seeing is coming from global tariff policies from the U.S. and many other nations adding uncertainty to the strength of these markets. Over the next few weeks, traders will learn more about the implementation of these tariffs and where the equity markets and precious metals may settle.
Over the last few weeks, the CME Fed Watch Tool has also shifted, and now is pricing in a 44% chance of a rate cut at the May 7th meeting of 25 basis points, where previous expectations were to see the a pause for the May meeting. This week offers a big slate of economic data as well, including ADP Nonfarm Payroll, Initial Jobless Claims, Unemployment Data, and the Fed Monetary Policy Report. This economic data could have an effect on the Fed’s stance on the economy and their plans for rate cuts moving forward.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
ES Pump n Dump Trade IdeaMarkets have been bleeding relatively quickly here over the last few days. Price has recently hit the Weekly level and 1-1 extension from what might be a potential ABC correction. Would be nice to get some relief, potentially reclaiming the Value Area Low of the trend, and then the VWAP will decide if we trade back down, or potentially higher.
We are at some quite important key levels here, losing them would truly expand the range with some room to drop to the downside.
S&P 45-min RTH Futures review45-min S&P Futures,, RTH (regular trading hours)
Wedge failure is followed by 2 more legs down, a chart reset, and bearish breakout to the downside. Bulls have nothing to buy. 5700 area is magnet.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/04/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/04/2025
📈5840 5858 5875
📉5800 5780 5760
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update March 4thYesterday, the breakdown short idea I mentioned at 5938-42 triggered a 100-point sell-off in ES. Coming into today, as noted in the plan yesterday evening, losing 5850 would set up a sharp short trigger—and we just got it, dropping 25 points so far.
As of now:
• 5814, 5798 are next downside targets if selling continues
• To reverse and rally, 5857 must reclaim
Stop and catch its breathAfter the break to the downside in the S&P 500 daily chart and inside day is expected. This means Tuesday's trade action will trade inside the range of Monday's trade action. The market needs to absorb the uncertainty that was felt on Monday.
ES futures levels to Watch and Play short and longEZS futures long and short target's and a quick recap
ES Futures & Macro Trends: Key Levels and Market ScenariosCME_MINI:ES1!
Macro and Geopolitics:
There was continued news flow over the weekend after derailed talks between Trump and Zelensky. Europe, UK and Saudi Arabia are still pushing for a Russia-US-Ukraine peace deal that will likely include rare earth minerals.
We also heard Trump commenting on an executive order on digital assets strategic reserves helping reverse losses in CME BTC futures. Investors see this as a positive development prior to the upcoming Crypto Summit in Washington on March 7th.
US March 4th tariff deadlines loom for Canada, Mexico, and China. Trump repeated America's first stance commenting that border security and stopping illegal drug trades should be America’s prime focus.
Economic Calendar:
Looking ahead this week, key economic events include manufacturing PMI data on Monday, employment and services data midweek, and major central bank decisions and labor market reports toward the end of the week. Here’s a breakdown of important releases:
Monday:
Manufacturing PMI data release
Wednesday:
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Services PMI
Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday:
European Central Bank (ECB): Interest rate decision & monetary policy statement
U.S. Data:
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Jobless Claims
U.S. Trade Balance
January 2025 Imports & Exports data
Friday:
U.S. Employment Data:
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report
Average Hourly Earnings
Unemployment Rate
Federal Reserve Speakers:
Bowman & Powell scheduled to speak
ES Big Picture:
Despite increased volatility and risks mounting, looking at the daily chart shows that ES futures are still within range and trading above Nov 4th, 2024 and January 13th, 2025 low, however, 2025 mcVAH and R1 confluence has been acting as strong resistance and keeping the markets from reaching new all-time highs.
Despite the risks, our analysis suggests that with the U.S. economy showing resilience, a "buy the dip" approach remains favorable. However, staying selective and strategic with opportunities is key to balancing risk and reward.
Key Levels:
Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan.
2025 VAH: 6,150
2025 VPOC: 6,133.75
LVN: 6,113.25
Neutral Zone: 6,000 - 6,015
2025 VAL: 5,972.50
LIS/Yearly Open: 5,949.50
Neutral Zone: 5,916.50 - 5,927.25
Feb 2025 Low: 5,848
Jan 2025 Low: 5,809
Scenario 1: Range bound week
Market remains volatile, however, within the neutral zone below key LIS/yearly open and neutral zone above Key LIS/yearly open.
Scenario 2: Weak data points slowing economy
Worsening economic data points along with progress in Ukraine- US minerals deal points towards further buying. Weaker data points may provide room for further rate cuts should economic weakening further materialize.
Scenario 3: Mounting risks and weaker economic data
On the contrary, mounting risk and weaker economic data may point towards stagflation as inflation remains sticky while the economy weakens. This provides room for further decline in ES futures.
we getting it done brick by brick Watch my live /ES session as I navigate market swings with precision—mixing quick longs and shorts for real-time insights. Every trade, from the rapid entries at 9:25 to decisive moves at 9:51, is a lesson in strategy, risk, and opportunity. Dive into the details, learn from the wins and losses, and let’s discuss the tactics behind every move.
#LiveTrading #DayTrading #MarketInsights #ESTrading
Feel free to tweak it further to match your style!
SP500 Weekly Action Areas & Price Targets 03/03/25In this update, we review the recent price action in the emini SP500 futures contract and identify the next high-probability action areas and price objectives for the trading week ahead. To review today's video analysis click here.
Weekly Melt Up Target Achieve during Globex /ES $SPY SSPX
If we cant break / trade and close above 5955-6000 GEX (Call Wall) during IB "initial balance" cash session players can go look for buyers at 5810 Put Support.
Keep your eyes on TVC:VIX !!
ES Morning Update March 3rdLast Friday around 1 PM, a Failed Breakdown near 5860 was triggered after multiple tests of support. Once reclaimed, it set up a strong long, and holding over the weekend paid off—now +130 points from that entry.
As of now:
• At resistance, so nothing to do but hold and wait
• 5977, 5938-40 = key supports
• If momentum continues, next upside targets are 6004, 6015-20, and 6042
ES - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5882.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
(FVG) - Fair Value GAP and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
ES/ Mag7 ChartHere is we can observe the broadening out of the stock concentration we have observed for the past 4 years in the Mag7 which at its peak reached 35% of the market.
To read this chart correctly.
1: This is ES/Mag 7 relative strength. It is full ES 500- MAG 7- Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nividia Tesla.
2. When this chart goes up, it means concentration is broadening out i.e more investment into more of the SP500 other/ smaller companies and less into Mag 7.
2.1 When this chart goes Down, it ca signify A: Heavy selling in Mag 7 companies. OR B: Heavy buying in the broader set of S&P500 companies. OR Both at the same time.
Bullish Momentum Building in ES Futures!The market is showing strong upward potential, with solid momentum and key technical signals suggesting a breakout is on the horizon. If we see a pullback or consolidation, it could present the perfect opportunity to get long and ride the wave higher. 🔥
Eyes on the next move—this could be the start of something big. Stay sharp, and let’s take advantage of the trend! 💪
Weekly Market Forecast Mar 3-7: Stock Indices, Gold, Oil, moreThis is a FUTURES market outlook for the week of Mar 3-7th.
In this video, we will analyze the following futures markets:
ES | S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC | Gold
SIL | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
The indices took a bearish turn at the end of last week. Trump announcements, tariffs, Ukraine and Russia injected uncertainty into the markets, and investors moved money into safe havens.
Patience is required to trade in this environment. Wait until there are clear signs of shifts in the market before deciding on a bias. Setup confirmations are always the best course of action.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 03.02 - 03.07.25Last Week :
Globex opened above VAH of 6054 - 5933 HTF Range and February RTH Cost basis which gave a hold to start the week to push us into the above Edge but more strength didn't come in, instead we ended up holding under 6074 - 60s and closer to Monday RTH open price failed in the Edge giving us a move into lower Value with a close inside it. Holding under Cost Basis meant weakness for longer term buyers and triggered moves lower all week as they needed to get out closer to month end we got. Lower Edge kept giving bounces back into Value which kept building more supply and when MM Month end came on Thursday we were able to take the stops under 5930 to give us continuation to test lower Value under 5870s. To finish the week we found buying inside lower Value and what I think was end of the Week short covering before the weekend which pushed us back into the Edge in the afternoon, all momentum traders had to do was buy it up under the Edge to push price back inside which triggered stops on the way up to give us end of day squeeze back into above VAL where all the supply was.
This Week :
We are starting a new Month and things can be tricky to start, we are at interesting locations on Weekly, Daily and Hourly charts with quite a few options going into this week so we really have to be open to different scenarios as things are not as clear as they were last 2 weeks going into Month End.
On Daily TF we have showed a failure over Daily Edge Top and at the same time have transitioned into a correction mode under it which gave us the move from Daily Edge into Daily VAH at 987 - 67 and flushed the buyers under it through Daily Mean towards Daily VAL at 846 - 28 without tagging it. End of week covering took us back into Daily VAH but left Daily TF in Correction mode under its MAs.
On Weekly TF we had a long consolidation in new Weekly balance over 5950s but we never transacted through the whole balance which means no acceptance in it, instead we built up a lot of Supply inside which at the end of the Month gave us this move back into lower Balance with a strong break and close under smaller MA with price closing right at the top/bottom ( depends which way we look at it ) of Weekly Balance. For now this tells us that we could see more weakness going into this new Month, as long as we hold under Weekly Smaller MA which is around 6010s and don't accept back above Daily VAH of 5987 - 67 then that could bring in continued weakness to rotate lower back towards Daily Mean and possibly test Daily VAL and maybe see a push under it.
Holding under the Daily Edge of 6073 - 43 implies continued weakness as well and will continue to target lower Daily areas all the way down into its bottom Daily Edge at 5754 - 24 which has Weak Stops and a Gap to fill under which was made during contract roll. Does not mean we will go there right away or go there at all of course BUT there are lots of things stacked up for more downside so far, of course we have to watch each area for continuation through but if there is still more sell volume to come out then we have to watch out looking for much higher prices from here and instead look for balances with weakness and rotations back down.
This week could play out as an inside week with weakness towards the bottom of previous week and IF there will be stronger volume then we could see last weeks lows get taken to give us pushes towards Previous Distribution Balance that we have made back in October which would be next big spot to visit.
On the Upside IF buying from Friday sticks and we start holding over 5930 - 40s then need to be careful forcing downside as we could build up enough and bring in more buying to push into above Value again, we do have trapped buyers inside it from last week so it would be a spot to be careful at as we could continue to see selling out of that Value on any pushes into it, for more strength inside that Value we would really need to push through VAL and start holding over 5970 - 90s which would signal stability and could have the price balance inside that Value and of course for anything higher we would need to take out February RTH cost basis above VAH because we have most of the buying from last few months trapped over it.
ES (March 2025) - End of February Analysis- 5807 monthly bullish order block pending if we see downside movement
- 1 month FVG // BISI @ 5669 – 5724 of interest if we are to close below 5807
- Februarys high created new all-time highs but price quickly declined shortly after. Suggests short term weakness - Monthly bias was bearish as ES has closed bearish this month
