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ES1! trade ideas

Combined US Equities Breakout late OctoberVery quickly, the expected breakdown did not happen, and this week saw the an across the board bullish breakout. Noted the breakout is long in the teeth (old and late) and while bullish, it is not strong nor convincingly sustainable. Reminiscent of this expectation is the MACD and VolDiv looking lackluster. Expected top marked, and after 21 Oct needs a review... that would be the projected resistance for a stronger pullback. Bullish for now and the week ahead. Enjoy, make hay while the sun shines!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
I give up with request.quandl()Recently Tradingview gave us limited options stuff but unfortunately their API makes this very difficult, technically speaking, there should theoretically be a way to get options data from request.quandlor get local real estate data for say, a REIT and then do fun calculations but that data lacks documentation or doesn't work. //@version=5 indicator("Combined Macro & Financial Indicator", overlay=false) // Define constants for index values ZILLOW_PRICE_INDEX = 1 US_GDP_INDEX = 1 SOYBEAN_FORECAST_INDEX = 1 PRODUCER_LONGS_INDEX = 8 PRODUCER_SHORTS_INDEX = 9 SWAP_LONGS_INDEX = 10 SWAP_SHORTS_INDEX = 11 INFLATION_INDEX = 1 ES1_CLOSE_INDEX = 4 ES1_OPTIONS_INDEX = 1 // Placeholder index for options data // Zillow Real Estate Data: Median Listing Price // Source: Zillow database on Nasdaq Data Link zillow_price = request.quandl("ZILLOW/M00039_MRP", index=ZILLOW_PRICE_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true) // World Bank Data: US GDP // Source: World Bank database on Nasdaq Data Link world_bank_gdp = request.quandl("WWDI/USA_NY_GDP_MKTP_CN", index=US_GDP_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true) // WASDE: Soybean Forecast // Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on Nasdaq Data Link wasde_soybean = request.quandl("WASDE/SOYBEAN", index=SOYBEAN_FORECAST_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true) // CFTC: Net Positions (e.g., Gold Futures) // Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reports on Nasdaq Data Link producer_merchant_processor_user_longs = request.quandl("CFTC/088691_F_ALL", index=PRODUCER_LONGS_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true) producer_merchant_processor_user_shorts = request.quandl("CFTC/088691_F_ALL", index=PRODUCER_SHORTS_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true) swap_dealer_longs = request.quandl("CFTC/088691_F_ALL", index=SWAP_LONGS_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true) swap_dealer_shorts = request.quandl("CFTC/088691_F_ALL", index=SWAP_SHORTS_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true) // IMF: US Inflation Data // Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) data on Nasdaq Data Link imf_inflation = request.quandl("ODA/USA_PCPIPCH", index=INFLATION_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true) // ES1! Data: S&P 500 E-mini Futures Close Price // Source: S&P 500 E-mini Futures on TradingView (ES1!) es1_close = request.security("ES1!", "D", close) // ES1! Options Data: Placeholder for S&P 500 E-mini Futures options data // Source: Options data on Nasdaq Data Link (if available) es1_options = request.quandl("CBOE/ES_OPTIONS", index=ES1_OPTIONS_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true) // Replace "CBOE/ES_OPTIONS" with correct dataset code if available // Create a table to display the data table_id = table.new(position.top_right, 10, 2, border_width=1) // Set table headers header_bg_color = color.blue header_text_color = color.white table.cell(table_id, 0, 0, "Indicator", text_color=header_text_color, bgcolor=header_bg_color) table.cell(table_id, 0, 1, "Value", text_color=header_text_color, bgcolor=header_bg_color) // Set table rows default_text_color = color.black table.cell(table_id, 1, 0, "Zillow Median Listing Price", text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 1, 1, na(zillow_price) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(zillow_price), text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 2, 0, "World Bank US GDP", text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 2, 1, na(world_bank_gdp) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(world_bank_gdp), text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 3, 0, "WASDE Soybean Forecast", text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 3, 1, na(wasde_soybean) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(wasde_soybean), text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 4, 0, "Producer Merchant Longs", text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 4, 1, na(producer_merchant_processor_user_longs) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(producer_merchant_processor_user_longs), text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 5, 0, "Producer Merchant Shorts", text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 5, 1, na(producer_merchant_processor_user_shorts) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(producer_merchant_processor_user_shorts), text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 6, 0, "Swap Dealer Longs", text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 6, 1, na(swap_dealer_longs) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(swap_dealer_longs), text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 7, 0, "Swap Dealer Shorts", text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 7, 1, na(swap_dealer_shorts) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(swap_dealer_shorts), text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 8, 0, "S&P 500 E-mini Futures Close Price", text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 8, 1, na(es1_close) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(es1_close), text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 9, 0, "S&P 500 E-mini Futures Options Data", text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 9, 1, na(es1_options) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(es1_options), text_color=default_text_color) // Set the y-axis scale and style for better readability hline(0, "Zero Line", color=color.gray, linestyle=hline.style_dotted) // Background color for the chart bgcolor(color.new(color.gray, 90)) // Background color to help distinguish the indicator plots // Possible Sources and Explanation of Codes // Zillow: Provides real estate data (e.g., median listing prices) using code "ZILLOW/M00039_MRP" // World Bank: Uses "WWDI/USA_NY_GDP_MKTP_CN" to get the US GDP // WASDE: Uses "WASDE/SOYBEAN" to get the forecast data for soybeans // CFTC: Uses "CFTC/088691_F_ALL" for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reports (e.g., Gold Futures) // IMF: Uses "ODA/USA_PCPIPCH" to get US inflation data // ES1!: Uses "ES1!" for the S&P 500 E-mini Futures close price // Options Data: Placeholder code "CBOE/ES_OPTIONS" for options data, replace with actual dataset if available // Notes on NaN Values // If values are returned as NaN, this could indicate that the data is either not available or the dataset has updated, requiring a different code or index. // Consider checking the data availability on the Nasdaq Data Link website to verify the dataset codes and indices. // Max Number of Requests // Pine Script limits external requests like `request.quandl()` to avoid overwhelming servers. Consider limiting the number of requests or combining data where possible to optimize the use of requests.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by livingdracula
RESEND: ES trading plan for CPI Day Oct 10thSupports: • Major: 5822-24, 5805, 5795, 5747-51, 5730, 5711, 5703, 5691, 5675, 5665, 5646 • Minor: 5828, 5815, 5810, 5790, 5780, 5773, 5764, 5757, 5740, 5725, 5715, 5686, 5682, 5672, 5657 What I’m Watching: •Tomorrow is CPI day. We’ve seen a massive rally from Thursday’s lows, breaking out of a two-week bull flag. However, as I’ve said, this isn’t the ideal time to trade. • Post-rally setups are scarce. Long entries are risky because we’ve already had 15+ tests/failed breakdowns of support, and now we’ve moved significantly higher. If you didn’t enter early, it’s not a great time to force trades. Shorts are also risky as we’re still in a bull market and at all-time highs (ATHs). • To make matters more complicated, tomorrow is CPI day, which is historically volatile, trappy, and unpredictable. For great traders, capital preservation is always key, so many avoid trading right after CPI releases. My focus tomorrow is protecting profits, and any trade will risk only 20% of my recent gains. • CPI days often see massive moves (70+ points either way), so keep expectations flexible. The primary task for buyers will be to defend today’s bull flag breakout at 5795. If we get a CPI flush, buyers will want to defend 5795 or reclaim it quickly. Be cautious, especially below 5795. Many levels below have been heavily tested, so if 5795 breaks, we could see a rapid move lower. • If we test 5795 and reclaim 5805, or if we flush 5790 and recover 5795, those could present long entries, especially if accompanied by volume confirmation. Be patient with entries tomorrow, and remember that breakdowns are often traps. Resistances: • Major: 5847, 5862, 5881, 5890, 5897, 5923, 5950-55, 5970 • Minor: 5840, 5852, 5855, 5869, 5876, 5904, 5908, 5917, 5932, 5936, 5941, 5965 • As a rule, I don’t counter-trend short ES in a bull market. I haven’t taken a short loss in nearly 2 years because I don’t fight ES in uptrends. However, for those interested in counter-trend shorting, 5881 and 5897 are levels where you might find some resistance. Buyer’s Case for Tomorrow: • Straightforward: We’ve broken out of a bull flag at 5795, and tomorrow buyers will need to defend it. If CPI causes a flush, we don’t want to see any significant move below 5795, or if it does break, buyers need to reclaim it quickly. As long as this zone holds, we remain in an active bull flag breakout, and the target becomes 5862, 5881, and 5890-97. Clearing that range opens the path to 5950-55 and potentially 6000. • I wouldn’t recommend adding longs after a 100+ point rally on a CPI day, but in a normal scenario, flagging below today’s highs or above 5822 would be considered bullish. Watch for volume to confirm these entries if so. Seller’s Case for Tomorrow: • Sellers’ case begins with a failure of 5795. After such a significant rally, a correction wouldn’t necessarily be bearish in the big picture, just a healthy pullback. However, for short-term trades, losing 5795 is critical. • Breakdown trades require a specific setup. I need to see a test or a failed breakdown first, which helps remove demand from the level. Once this happens, I’ll look to enter slightly below the structure. For example, a test of 5795 or 5805, followed by a failed breakdown, would be the signal to short, likely triggering around 5792. On CPI days, though, this pattern might not materialize and the market could simply flush without providing the structure. Summary for Tomorrow: • It’s been a great run, so I’m shifting to profit protection until CPI passes. Anything can happen tomorrow, but I lean toward following the trend and trading based on what’s in front of me. We’ve broken out of a bull flag at 5795, and as long as that holds, targets include 5863, 5881, and 5890-97. If 5795 fails, it means today’s breakout has failed, and sellers could take control. Follow for updates every morning at 8:15 Eastern on TradingView
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
ES Trading Plan for CPI Day Oct 11thSupports: • Major: 5822-24, 5805, 5795, 5747-51, 5730, 5711, 5703, 5691, 5675, 5665, 5646 • Minor: 5828, 5815, 5810, 5790, 5780, 5773, 5764, 5757, 5740, 5725, 5715, 5686, 5682, 5672, 5657 What I’m Watching: •Tomorrow is CPI day. We’ve seen a massive rally from Thursday’s lows, breaking out of a two-week bull flag. However, as I’ve said, this isn’t the ideal time to trade. • Post-rally setups are scarce. Long entries are risky because we’ve already had 15+ tests/failed breakdowns of support, and now we’ve moved significantly higher. If you didn’t enter early, it’s not a great time to force trades. Shorts are also risky as we’re still in a bull market and at all-time highs (ATHs). • To make matters more complicated, tomorrow is CPI day, which is historically volatile, trappy, and unpredictable. For great traders, capital preservation is always key, so many avoid trading right after CPI releases. My focus tomorrow is protecting profits, and any trade will risk only 20% of my recent gains. • CPI days often see massive moves (70+ points either way), so keep expectations flexible. The primary task for buyers will be to defend today’s bull flag breakout at 5795. If we get a CPI flush, buyers will want to defend 5795 or reclaim it quickly. Be cautious, especially below 5795. Many levels below have been heavily tested, so if 5795 breaks, we could see a rapid move lower. • If we test 5795 and reclaim 5805, or if we flush 5790 and recover 5795, those could present long entries, especially if accompanied by volume confirmation. Be patient with entries tomorrow, and remember that breakdowns are often traps. Resistances: • Major: 5847, 5862, 5881, 5890, 5897, 5923, 5950-55, 5970 • Minor: 5840, 5852, 5855, 5869, 5876, 5904, 5908, 5917, 5932, 5936, 5941, 5965 • As a rule, I don’t counter-trend short ES in a bull market. I haven’t taken a short loss in nearly 2 years because I don’t fight ES in uptrends. However, for those interested in counter-trend shorting, 5881 and 5897 are levels where you might find some resistance. Buyer’s Case for Tomorrow: • Straightforward: We’ve broken out of a bull flag at 5795, and tomorrow buyers will need to defend it. If CPI causes a flush, we don’t want to see any significant move below 5795, or if it does break, buyers need to reclaim it quickly. As long as this zone holds, we remain in an active bull flag breakout, and the target becomes 5862, 5881, and 5890-97. Clearing that range opens the path to 5950-55 and potentially 6000. • I wouldn’t recommend adding longs after a 100+ point rally on a CPI day, but in a normal scenario, flagging below today’s highs or above 5822 would be considered bullish. Watch for volume to confirm these entries if so. Seller’s Case for Tomorrow: • Sellers’ case begins with a failure of 5795. After such a significant rally, a correction wouldn’t necessarily be bearish in the big picture, just a healthy pullback. However, for short-term trades, losing 5795 is critical. • Breakdown trades require a specific setup. I need to see a test or a failed breakdown first, which helps remove demand from the level. Once this happens, I’ll look to enter slightly below the structure. For example, a test of 5795 or 5805, followed by a failed breakdown, would be the signal to short, likely triggering around 5792. On CPI days, though, this pattern might not materialize and the market could simply flush without providing the structure. Summary for Tomorrow: • It’s been a great run, so I’m shifting to profit protection until CPI passes. Anything can happen tomorrow, but I lean toward following the trend and trading based on what’s in front of me. We’ve broken out of a bull flag at 5795, and as long as that holds, targets include 5863, 5881, and 5890-97. If 5795 fails, it means today’s breakout has failed, and sellers could take control. Follow for updates every morning at 8:15 Eastern on TradingView
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
2024-10-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bears stuffed the bullish price action from Friday with a decent bear bar closing on it’s low. Markets continue in their respective trading ranges near the highs and the daily ema have held again. If bears can generate follow through selling tomorrow, the highs could be in for now and we could see a deeper pullback. sp500 e-mini futures comment: 5750 - 5800 is my neutral range (written in my weekly update) and bears managed to get 5734 but could not close below the daily 20ema. To take control of the market, bears need follow through tomorrow below 5720 and a close below 5700 would be good for them. If they fail, bulls will buy it and we continue inside the range. current market cycle: nested bull wedges key levels : 5700 - 5850 bull case: Bulls have to stay above the daily 20ema or lose control, that’s their target for tomorrow. Since market is trading below the 1h 20ema, we will probably go more sideways during Globex and EU session before we see a bigger impulse again. Bulls still have the lower wedge bull trend line around 5700 and that would be their last stand before bears can take control and push this much lower again. Odds favor the bulls to stay above 5690 until we tested the trend line more than once. They rarely break on the second/third hit. Invalidation is below 5690. bear case: Bears want to trade below the daily ema and test the bull trend line around 5690-5700. We have spent enough time at the highs and a new impulse is around the corner. As of now I have no opinion where we might break out to. Bears can also make the case for a head & shoulders top and a measured move down would bring us to almost exactly the 50% pullback of the recent bull trend (5638ish). Coincidences eh. Invalidation is above 5850. short term: Neutral at the daily 20ema. It’s more reasonable to expect more sideways instead of a breakout. When it happens, watch for follow through before you join the trend. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day : Globex was bearish enough and once market traded below the 1h 20ema, it could not stay above it for long. Overall I’d say it was a tricky day. Shorting inside the trading range bar 30 - 45 was not a good trade since market just went up and down inside the tight range. Bears showed some strength with bars 45 and 47. Can you then reliably short on bar 50? I doubt it. To weak of a signal and you have the bar 18 low, so you would be shorting low in a potential trading range. Bar 53 was even worse to short, since it was a perfect double bottom with bar 18. Bar 54 was the bar that surely made the market always-in-short and 55 was the give up bar but then market printed one more strong bear bar and reversed for 11 points, trapping late bears.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.06 - 10.11Last Week : Sunday Globex held the Edge after open which gave us an attempt at above VAL into Mondays RTH Close. We pushed above the distribution balance, consolidated under next ranges VAL and sold back to Balance low. We spent the whole week filling out that area under the Edge with sells into VAH but we never got clear acceptance under 730s which is what was needed for any more downside from there, instead we would look under distribution balance low and come back towards the middle. After getting no continuation lower we got short covering on Friday before the weekend which drove prices back to balance top with a close over the Edge. This Week : Close over the Edge could be seen as strength and could bring in more buyers if we hold over it or at least over 780s, but we have to be careful over 800s because until we accept over VAL and start transacting inside next ranges Value then price may want to keep coming back inside and under the Edge of current HTF Range which is 5772 - 5650+/-. If we do get a push above but again fail to hold/get over VAL then we would look for a return back into the Edge and from there possible sells into the Supply towards balance low/VAH. IF we do return back into/under the Edge and will have enough supply built up which may take some time this week to built up we could attempt a push into lower Value and that's an IF as we may have another sort of inside week inside the distribution balance. For strength to come in and start thinking of higher prices from 800s we would need to start holding over the Edge and start transacting over VAL over 830s until then we can stay around distribution balance building Supply to bring back inside lower Value cost basis to fill the buyers there, may still need time to build up for that. Until then balance.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
ES/SPX Plan For Oct 7thPlan for Monday: Supports: • 5796, 5783 (major), 5773-76 (major), 5764, 5758, 5751, 5745-40 (major), 5734, 5729, 5725, 5721 (major), 5716, 5711 (major), 5702-04 (major), 5697, 5694 (major), 5686, 5680, 5672 (major). What I’m Watching: • We had a big squeeze into the close, so now is not the best time to trade. After strong moves, both longs and shorts carry risks: chasing longs is risky under resistance, and shorts are against the trend, increasing the chance of consolidation. Sit back and let setups unfold. • I typically wait for a volatility spike (like a dip) before new setups appear. With the close at 5805, there’s no immediate appeal in new trades. The first major support on Monday is 5783. I’m hesitant to buy first supports on Mondays due to the “Monday morning hangover effect,” especially after a strong Friday close, as ES often gives back gains on Monday. I’ll look for a reaction first. If intense selling occurs, I’ll wait for a flush and recovery above 5783 to long. • The 5805 to 5740 range is a consolidation zone (flag). This could extend for days, so don’t be surprised if we retrace to bottom support Monday. If we lose 5783, we’ll likely work down the range. I’m not interested in bidding at 5764, but if there’s a flush to 5758 followed by a reclaim, I’d consider it. Below that, the 5740-45 zone could come back into play. A flush to 5740 early Monday could offer a final bid, but I’d prefer a test of that zone and a recovery of the session low at 5751 first. If 5740 breaks, I’d flip short as longs below become risky. Resistances: • 5805 (major), 5814 (major), 5821, 5828, 5839 (major), 5841, 5850 (major), 5860 (major), 5866, 5877 (major), 5881, 5885 (major), 5894, 5908 (major). • As usual, I don’t short strength in ES. Maintaining a high win rate means avoiding setups with lower probabilities, aka fighting an uptrend. For those who do, 5805 would normally be a short spot, but it was just tested into the close, so be cautious. Above here, 5814 is another potential resistance, but if cleared, it’s clear blue skies to 5850 for buyers. Buyer’s Case for Monday: • The buyer’s case sees this flag breaking out. The broader structure is from 5805 to 5721, but a more actionable range is 5740-5805. If it holds, ES could break out to 5814, 5828, and eventually 5839+. The ultra-buyer’s case for Monday would see ES hold 5782 (perhaps undercut, but hold), ping-pong between 5782 and 5805, and attempt a direct breakout. Watch 5783 closely Monday. Seller’s Case for Monday: • The seller’s case begins with a break below 5740. Breakdown trades are tricky and often trap traders (80% of breakdowns fail). If you can’t tolerate these odds, it’s better to avoid them. I’d look for a test of 5740-45, which plays out for buyers before considering a short—likely around 5737 or lower. A failure at 5783 could also trigger shorts, but this is a more advanced trade. Ideally, we’d see a test of 5783 or a failed breakdown. After longs bounce, I’d short below that structure, probably near 5771. Summary for Monday: • The new consolidation range is 5805 to 5740-45. This could develop in various ways, but my lean is toward further filling out, meaning a pullback to start Monday, potentially to 5783. If buyers are motivated, that could be the lows, but if we lose 5783, a test of 5740-45 is likely. A breakout of the range targets new all-time highs. If 5740 fails, look for short opportunities.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg